1.8%

[Coxy]

Let's get the lie detector test out on Silver and the people he has that do the draft lottery.

The odds on this is crazy, so, let's see them plead the innocence of such absurb odds coming true.

[Twinkie defense]

So the odds of those teams all jumping and getting 1,2 and 3 are a fraction of 1.8%.

Sure. The odds of ANY three independent outcomes occurring at the same time are very small - in fact the odds that the three worst teams get the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks in exact order are approximately 0.44%, or about 1 in 227 (around the same odds as flipping a coin and getting heads eight times in a row). But because people misunderstand probability, if that super-rare outcome happened everyone would probably say of course that's how the draft lottery shook out lol.

The outcome has a high degree of randomness, and each outcome is independent from the others. Which is different than looking at a specific outcome that occurred in the past and saying "the odds of that particular outcome are so small it couldn't have been random."

[Zvaart]

The odds of the Top-3 in the NBA Draft being Dallas, San Antonio, and Philadelphia in that order was 0.0114%.

Odds for the top 3 lol

What are the odds that the Pacers and Knicks would be up 3-1?

I don't know, but I do know it has absolutely nothing to do with what I said.

it does, you just don't realize it

[Impuniti]

What are the odds that the Pacers and Knicks would be up 3-1?

I don't know, but I do know it has absolutely nothing to do with what I said.

it does, you just don't realize it

These are not the same at all though. Those abnormalities happen with the intent to give specific market teams the ability to become big quickly and help in market ratings.. which helps out the NBA. The others are just games being played, with two teams going through likely because of the huge injury bug from the two teams they're beating. If Zingis is healthy, they're not blowing 3 20 point leads, and Cavs missed 3 starters in one of their earlier games.

This is just nonsensically putting low odd situations together and calling them similar, without context.

[EvanZ]

Those were the odds of the Mavs winning the lottery. And now, it all makes perfect sense. Give away your young star to LA and get rewarded with the #1 pick and Cooper Flagg.

How rigged is this league? And how obvious do they have to make it?

Out of all the things in the world that could happen, one of them happened. It must be rigged!

[Impuniti]

Those were the odds of the Mavs winning the lottery. And now, it all makes perfect sense. Give away your young star to LA and get rewarded with the #1 pick and Cooper Flagg.

How rigged is this league? And how obvious do they have to make it?

Out of all the things in the world that could happen, one of them happened. It must be rigged!

The same thing literally happened 6 years ago. AD to LA and then 1st pick the next season. The chance of the top 3 teams (Spurs, another market to elevate) all getting the top 3 was also even more unlikely.


I find it amazing that people can't grasp that multi-billion dollar corporations will do whatever it takes to make as much revenue as possible.

[EvanZ]

Those were the odds of the Mavs winning the lottery. And now, it all makes perfect sense. Give away your young star to LA and get rewarded with the #1 pick and Cooper Flagg.

How rigged is this league? And how obvious do they have to make it?

Out of all the things in the world that could happen, one of them happened. It must be rigged!

The same thing literally happened 6 years ago. AD to LA and then 1st pick the next season. The chance of the top 3 teams (Spurs, another market to elevate) all getting the top 3 was also even more unlikely.


I find it amazing that people can't grasp that multi-billion dollar corporations will do whatever it takes to make as much revenue as possible.

I find it amazing that people have to create these narratives for themselves. Sadly that does appear to be the world we live in currently. Never been a better time to be a conspiracy theory.

[Impuniti]

Out of all the things in the world that could happen, one of them happened. It must be rigged!

The same thing literally happened 6 years ago. AD to LA and then 1st pick the next season. The chance of the top 3 teams (Spurs, another market to elevate) all getting the top 3 was also even more unlikely.


I find it amazing that people can't grasp that multi-billion dollar corporations will do whatever it takes to make as much revenue as possible.

I find it amazing that people have to create these narratives for themselves. Sadly that does appear to be the world we live in currently. Never been a better time to be a conspiracy theory.

You've said absolutely nothing in 3 sentences.

[EvanZ]

The same thing literally happened 6 years ago. AD to LA and then 1st pick the next season. The chance of the top 3 teams (Spurs, another market to elevate) all getting the top 3 was also even more unlikely.


I find it amazing that people can't grasp that multi-billion dollar corporations will do whatever it takes to make as much revenue as possible.

I find it amazing that people have to create these narratives for themselves. Sadly that does appear to be the world we live in currently. Never been a better time to be a conspiracy theory.

You've said absolutely nothing in 3 sentences.

I've added as much information as you have my friend.

[statsman]

Imagine being the Bulls and losing the pre-lottery coin flip to the Mavs for seeding. Then again, conspiracy theorists would suggest that the Bulls wouldn't have received the #1 pick.

[Twinkie defense]

I find it amazing that people can't grasp that multi-billion dollar corporations will do whatever it takes to make as much revenue as possible.

Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is usually the best.

Theory one: in a random lottery you will have random, and sometimes surprising outcomes.

Theory two: Multi-billion dollar business enterprise risks failure due to public scandal to predetermine outcome of draft. This is a massive conspiracy that involves all the team owners - including those who are missing out on drafting stars - as well as the media representatives who are on hand to witness the drawing.

[Impuniti]

I find it amazing that people can't grasp that multi-billion dollar corporations will do whatever it takes to make as much revenue as possible.

Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is usually the best.

Theory one: in a random lottery you will have random, and sometimes surprising outcomes.

Theory two: Multi-billion dollar business enterprise risks failure due to public scandal to predetermine outcome of draft. This is a massive conspiracy that involves all the team owners - including those who are missing out on drafting stars - as well as the media representatives who are on hand to witness the drawing.

It's not a random lottery, there's a pattern. If this happened once or twice, it would be understanding.

I guess Draymond flying his finger and not touching Lebron yet getting suspended is also the most simple reason, suspension despite not touching a player who put his nuts on his face. Not the league pushing the series to make more money. You're right, why would multi-billion dollar corporations ever do anything to maximize profits? There's no precedent of that ever happening.

[DevinVassell]

How often does absolute power corrupt? All the bloody time. When there are zero repercussions and plenty to gain, people often can't help themselves.

We will never know if it was rigged but you would be naive to think it wasn't a possibility.

[Jester_]

I find it amazing that people can't grasp that multi-billion dollar corporations will do whatever it takes to make as much revenue as possible.

Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is usually the best.

Theory one: in a random lottery you will have random, and sometimes surprising outcomes.

Theory two: Multi-billion dollar business enterprise risks failure due to public scandal to predetermine outcome of draft. This is a massive conspiracy that involves all the team owners - including those who are missing out on drafting stars - as well as the media representatives who are on hand to witness the drawing.

It's not a random lottery, there's a pattern. If this happened once or twice, it would be understanding.

I guess Draymond flying his finger and not touching Lebron yet getting suspended is also the most simple reason, suspension despite not touching a player who put his nuts on his face. Not the league pushing the series to make more money. You're right, why would multi-billion dollar corporations ever do anything to maximize profits? There's no precedent of that ever happening.

and what about all the other times when something like this doesn't happen? i.e 99% of the other stuff that happens in the league?

stats needs to start becoming a mandatory high school course i swear

multi billion dollar corporations don't commonly commit large scale fraud. just some goofy ass accusations

[vvoland]

Ok, fine.

Here's what we would have heard if team ___ won the lottery:

1. Dal - see the nonsense above
2. SAS - Pop retires so they just give them Flagg! Wemby gets hurt so they get the next Wemby!
3. Phi - Large market makes large signings, tanks and wins the lottery! Trust the process! Morey rigged it!
4. Was - Trump is prez and the first US white guy to go #1 just happens to go to DC? Silver did it as a favor to trump!
5. Uta - The first US white guy to go #1 just happens to go to the whitest fan base in the NBA? Must be rigged!
6. Tor - The first US white guy to go #1 just happens to go to Canada? Must be rigged! Toronto is a huge market and needs help!
7. Por - Team is about to be sold, of course they get the #1 pick!
8. Atl - Two years in a row?! How much more evidence do you idiots need? It's clearly fixed!
9. Sac - Just gave away Fox to Wemby, of course they get Flagg!
10. Cha - Jordan just sold the team, of course the new owners get Flagg!
11. BKN - huge market, rivalry with Knicks, it's obvious you fools!
12. Chi - 3rd biggest market (and biggest with a lottery pick) just happens to get Flagg? Come on, how blind are you!?
13. Hou - Large market with a young nucleus gets the piece to put them over the top. Too obvious!
14. NOP - same reasons they got AD and Zion. I think it's because the NBA couldn't find a buyer (lol) or values having a franchise in NO (LOL).

[DevinVassell]

^ fair argument.

but with Luka going to LA when every other team in the NBA would have given up the farm... its hard to ignore a certain stench, no? Maybe nothing to do with Silver but something doesn't add up there.