Post#202 » by HiRez » Sun May 16, 2021 7:07 pm
The way I'm reading this is a lot of it comes down to Denver. Portland will want to win that game to avoid the play-in. But by the time Denver plays Portland, almost everything else will be set and Denver may have a strong motivation to blow off the Portland game.
Let's assume the Clippers beat OKC (likely), the Lakers beat the Pels (likely), and the Mavs beat the Wolves (likely). If Denver beats Portland, they become the #3 seed and, by virtue of dropping the Blazers down, must face the Lakers as the #6 seed. I don't think they want that. If Denver loses to Portland, they become the #4 seed and face the #5 seed Dallas Mavs. That seems the more palatable option.
Now if any of those games come out in an unexpected way it messes all that up, but the bottom line is Denver has a lot of control over its own fate and the odds say they may be motivated to throw the Portland game. In other words, don't be surprised to see Jokic come down with a mysterious, last-minute "injury" or "illness".
Also, the Suns are throwing their game, which if it ends that way will lock them into #2 and lock Utah into #1. That has implications for us down the road if we make it in.
