Warriors exploring S&T for Kuminga

[CS707]

What's his incentive to take the QO early?

Goodwill from the organization, which is pretty important for him given the FO really would have no investment in him at that point. He can't afford another season of sporadic playing time and bad press if he wants anything close to what he's assumed to be looking for next season. He'll just be doing this all over as a FA. Nobody is signing him to a contract that doesn't protect the organization. It's going to be a prove it deal with team options if he doesn't show this coming season.

[vvoland]

Sure it does. A team hardly ever gets full value for a player in RFA. He would be more valuable at the deadline, IMO.

I think JK will have multiple teams interested in him if he hits UFA...Did any of the teams for the other RFA's receive trade offers? I didn't hear of any.

If you are right then the Warriors should have never extended a QO to JK if he has negative value.

I don't think it's particularly debatable that JK will have more value in Feb, if only due to the BYC restrictions falling off. We're offering 2/45 that's really a 1/23. Sac offered 3/60+ and phx was at 4/90, right? I don't see the real downside of just giving him the 2/45 and calling it a day. Just the fact that all 30 teams can be involved vs ~10 that can afford to take in a S&T player would tilt the playing field, significantly.

I'm not sure what another team is willing to pay him necessarily translates to trade value for the Warriors. If it's the poo-poo platter we've seen to date, what's the point? We might actually lose leverage given the receiving team would know that we want to move off the contract. At the end of the day I just assume the Warriors FO has a better pulse on his market around the league and are strategizing accordingly.

IF we're talking 2/45, fully guaranteed, I don't think we'll have ANY trouble trading it once the restrictions fall off. Not only because, even in this very restricted environment, we still had two teams offering him the same annual amount, over more years. The garbage trade packages were a reflection of how badly they wanted JK at that price, that's fair. I would also say, they were a reflection of how many teams were in any position to accept a S&T this summer and what those teams had to salary match. Both things had an impact and, when one disappears, we'll have a better idea of his 'true value' around the league.

Sure, there's the risk of serious injury, at which point, we'd be pretty screwed. Outside of that, even if he's riding the pine for Kerr (seems likely only if we're winning, tbh), he'll still fetch some interest from the bottom feeders like suns and kings. Maybe we're in the same place we are now, getting a monk + protected 1st as our best offer. At least, in Feb, we won't have to trade Moody to make it legal. That's a significantly better proposition and, if we could do that today, there's a good chance JK is in Sac.

The upside of getting the deal done early, getting the rest of the roster together, and having better vibes, especially for this team, seems like the better route, at least from the cheap seats.

[thunderdunk]

Kick the can down the road. Have a mutual option for the second season. Require that the options be exercised by some date just before the trade deadline.

That way, the options are just another part of the S&T discussion midseason.

Not sure that I understand what a "mutual option" means. If JK plays badly, doesn't play much, or gets hurt, then he can take the option for a second year, but if he plays great, the Dubs can take the option and either keep him or trade him? Seems like, in the first scenario, he's way overpaid and possibly untradeable, and in the second scenario, we're back to where we started, except that they can match salaries to do a trade mid-season, with him locked in for at least one more year for the Dubs or the other team. Am I reading this right?

Of course, if he plays great, then he'll consider himself underpaid again for 2026-27, and potentially hold out to renegotiate, correct? He clearly thinks he's worth more than league GM's do at this point. Don't see any reason why that would change if he plays well this season.

[statsman]

Just to clarify, I see a lot of comments about trading a re-signed Kuminga in February at the trade deadline.

Technically, they could do it on or after January 15th (assuming he's signed by October 15th), up to the February 6th trade deadline.

The earlier any such trade, the better, if it were to happen.

[The-Power]

Agree but this just shows you JK is bluffing his ass off. He doesn’t intent to take the QO. If he was so confident in his ability to earn a big contract next year he would have already taken the QO before Cam did.

What's his incentive to take the QO early?

I don't think there is one. If Kuminga thinks there is even a remote chance at a better deal from the Warriors, a workable S&T deal, or even a last minute RFA offer, it is in his best interests to wait it out.

That's my reading on the situation, too. Kuminga likely waits for a better offer or a different path to open up, and even if that does not work out, I'm sure he doesn't mind leaving the Warriors in a tougher spot for what I'm sure he perceives as lowballing him or blocking his path to switch teams. He would behave exactly the same whether he was confident in his ability to earn a big contract next year or not, IMO.

What's his incentive to take the QO early?

Goodwill from the organization, which is pretty important for him given the FO really would have no investment in him at that point. He can't afford another season of sporadic playing time and bad press if he wants anything close to what he's assumed to be looking for next season. He'll just be doing this all over as a FA. Nobody is signing him to a contract that doesn't protect the organization. It's going to be a prove it deal with team options if he doesn't show this coming season.

Eh, I doubt it. Do you think the Warriors coaches would treat him differently depending on when he accepts the QO? Why would they have any more investment in him had he picked up the QO early as opposed to late? IMO, the situation is pretty clear. If Kuminga accepts the extension offer, the Warriors have an incentive to showcase him in order to trade him later. If Kuminga opts for the QO instead, he'll play and be featured only when – and to the extent that – the coaches feel like he can help them, and for that I highly doubt that the timeline around the QO makes any difference. Kuminga may be upset and continue to be upset when the season starts but I'm confident that the Warriors FO and coaches won't let their emotions make decisions for them. I expect them to be professional and driven by the desire to win, and that means playing Kuminga when he helps them on the court and benching him when he doesn't.

[CS707]

What's his incentive to take the QO early?

Goodwill from the organization, which is pretty important for him given the FO really would have no investment in him at that point. He can't afford another season of sporadic playing time and bad press if he wants anything close to what he's assumed to be looking for next season. He'll just be doing this all over as a FA. Nobody is signing him to a contract that doesn't protect the organization. It's going to be a prove it deal with team options if he doesn't show this coming season.

Eh, I doubt it. Do you think the Warriors coaches would treat him differently depending on when he accepts the QO? Why would they have any more investment in him had he picked up the QO early as opposed to late? IMO, the situation is pretty clear. If Kuminga accepts the extension offer, the Warriors have an incentive to showcase him in order to trade him later. If Kuminga opts for the QO instead, he'll play and be featured only when – and to the extent that – the coaches feel like he can help them, and for that I highly doubt that the timeline around the QO makes any difference. Kuminga may be upset and continue to be upset when the season starts but I'm confident that the Warriors FO and coaches won't let their emotions make decisions for them. I expect them to be professional and driven by the desire to win, and that means playing Kuminga when he helps them on the court and benching him when he doesn't.

I think the organization would treat him differently if there was an incentive for showcasing him for trade purposes. Without that, his only way to the floor is earning it, which hasn't worked out well for him so far.

[CS707]

I don't think it's particularly debatable that JK will have more value in Feb, if only due to the BYC restrictions falling off. We're offering 2/45 that's really a 1/23. Sac offered 3/60+ and phx was at 4/90, right? I don't see the real downside of just giving him the 2/45 and calling it a day. Just the fact that all 30 teams can be involved vs ~10 that can afford to take in a S&T player would tilt the playing field, significantly.

I'm not sure what another team is willing to pay him necessarily translates to trade value for the Warriors. If it's the poo-poo platter we've seen to date, what's the point? We might actually lose leverage given the receiving team would know that we want to move off the contract. At the end of the day I just assume the Warriors FO has a better pulse on his market around the league and are strategizing accordingly.

IF we're talking 2/45, fully guaranteed, I don't think we'll have ANY trouble trading it once the restrictions fall off. Not only because, even in this very restricted environment, we still had two teams offering him the same annual amount, over more years. The garbage trade packages were a reflection of how badly they wanted JK at that price, that's fair. I would also say, they were a reflection of how many teams were in any position to accept a S&T this summer and what those teams had to salary match. Both things had an impact and, when one disappears, we'll have a better idea of his 'true value' around the league.

Sure, there's the risk of serious injury, at which point, we'd be pretty screwed. Outside of that, even if he's riding the pine for Kerr (seems likely only if we're winning, tbh), he'll still fetch some interest from the bottom feeders like suns and kings. Maybe we're in the same place we are now, getting a monk + protected 1st as our best offer. At least, in Feb, we won't have to trade Moody to make it legal. That's a significantly better proposition and, if we could do that today, there's a good chance JK is in Sac.

The upside of getting the deal done early, getting the rest of the roster together, and having better vibes, especially for this team, seems like the better route, at least from the cheap seats.

My only point of disagreement was connecting what teams were willing to sign him for to trade value. I don't really see one necessarily leading to the other. It's obvious there is some interest but not significant. If there was more interest, organizations would have made preemptive moves to position themselves better to make an offer in the offseason. I don't see much changing trade return wise now vs. mid season unless he over/under performs. That's where the perceived lack of urgency from the front office comes from, IMO. There's not much risk for them. Also, if he has previously been on the block as suggested, they already have a pretty good idea of his value around the league.

[The-Power]

I think the organization would treat him differently if there was an incentive for showcasing him for trade purposes. Without that, his only way to the floor is earning it, which hasn't worked out well for him so far.

Yeah, but taking up the QO earlier would not have changed the situation, right? The Warriors would still have a rather small salary slot, they would be dependent on Kuminga to not veto any trade, and Kuminga would be on an expiring contract. So yes, the incentive structure for the Warriors depends on whether he accepts the QO or not – but it doesn't really depend on the timing of his decision.

[Twinkie defense]

If you are right then the Warriors should have never extended a QO to JK if he has negative value.

He doesn't have negative value at $7.9 mil but he might at $25 mil.

He has no value to the Warriors at $7.9M.

He played 24.3 mpg for the Warriors last season, including prime round two playoff minutes. If the Warriors can't get $7.9 mil of value from him this season then basically he's on his way out of the League and will soon be playing for the Saigon Heat.

[Twinkie defense]

What is worse with QO... Kerr will bench him for team JK plays, another season of CNP-CD. So QO is worse than getting Sacto's garbage.

Not offering QO would have been better.

Taking Sacto's garbage meant you'd have to lose Moody or Hield. Wouldn't you rather have Moody and Hield than Sacto's garbage?

[Twinkie defense]

IF we're talking 2/45, fully guaranteed, I don't think we'll have ANY trouble trading it once the restrictions fall off.

There is some chance the Warriors would have trouble trading him (see: Jordan Poole). And in that event it would be devastating for the Warriors because they wouldn't be able to get Steph Curry the help he needs to try to win another Championship.

If the plane has a 5% chance of blowing up, do you get on that flight?

The Athletic recently polled 16 people who work in rival front offices, asking them what they believe would constitute a “fair” contract for Kuminga, given today’s circumstances. They were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor. Answers ranged from $17 million to $25 million in average annual value. The mean average annual value in the poll was $20.4 million.

[Twinkie defense]

I think the organization would treat him differently if there was an incentive for showcasing him for trade purposes. Without that, his only way to the floor is earning it, which hasn't worked out well for him so far.

Kerr is on record saying that if Kuminga is back (presumably he was thinking, not on the QO - because who signs QOs?), the team would spend the first part of the season working him into the lineup and finding the best combinations for him. That was complicated last season due to the acquisition of Jimmy Butler coinciding with Kuminga's lengthy injury.

I assume that even on the QO Steve Kerr would still like to do that, because Kuminga does have some skills, and the Warriors need to maximize every opportunity they have to play better.

But he won't be gifted unproductive minutes to showcase himself, no.

[thunderdunk]

IF we're talking 2/45, fully guaranteed, I don't think we'll have ANY trouble trading it once the restrictions fall off.

There is some chance the Warriors would have trouble trading him (see: Jordan Poole). And in that event it would be devastating for the Warriors because they wouldn't be able to get Steph Curry the help he needs to try to win another Championship.

There might be some parallels, but this is nothing like the Poole situation, IMO. In that case, they had to unload a multi-year bad contract. Here, we'd be talking about 18 months. Unless he's badly injured, or completely incapable for some other reason, $20-25M/year isn't a terrible contract by NBA standards.

[whatisacenter]

He doesn't have negative value at $7.9 mil but he might at $25 mil.

He has no value to the Warriors at $7.9M.

He played 24.3 mpg for the Warriors last season, including prime round two playoff minutes. If the Warriors can't get $7.9 mil of value from him this season then basically he's on his way out of the League and will soon be playing for the Saigon Heat.

I assumed we were talking about trade value....he would be an expiring $7.9M contract with a NTC.

Some posters here think the Warriors are going to be contenders the next two seasons and JK is the only potential trade chip they currently have to improve the roster. If he takes the QO they lose that.

[marthafokker]

He has no value to the Warriors at $7.9M.

He played 24.3 mpg for the Warriors last season, including prime round two playoff minutes. If the Warriors can't get $7.9 mil of value from him this season then basically he's on his way out of the League and will soon be playing for the Saigon Heat.

I assumed we were talking about trade value....he would be an expiring $7.9M contract with a NTC.

Some posters here think the Warriors are going to be contenders the next two seasons and JK is the only potential trade chip they currently have to improve the roster. If he takes the QO they lose that.

Not only that. The QO removes JK bird right. So most teams trading for him probably can't even resign him unless they have the cap space.

[marthafokker]

What is worse with QO... Kerr will bench him for team JK plays, another season of CNP-CD. So QO is worse than getting Sacto's garbage.

Not offering QO would have been better.

Taking Sacto's garbage meant you'd have to lose Moody or Hield. Wouldn't you rather have Moody and Hield than Sacto's garbage?

Not that garbage with . The Carter and garbage package.

Actually, the probably Spurs 2030 1st and Monk is better than Hield/JK. Monk can dribble better and not as much Jacko or Hyde every game. The only thing bad his Monk's contract.

[CS707]

I think the organization would treat him differently if there was an incentive for showcasing him for trade purposes. Without that, his only way to the floor is earning it, which hasn't worked out well for him so far.

Yeah, but taking up the QO earlier would not have changed the situation, right? The Warriors would still have a rather small salary slot, they would be dependent on Kuminga to not veto any trade, and Kuminga would be on an expiring contract. So yes, the incentive structure for the Warriors depends on whether he accepts the QO or not – but it doesn't really depend on the timing of his decision.

It would allow them to move on with whatever offseason plans they have lined up. I'm guessing they already have it planned one way or the other, but it's still uncertain until it's done.

[Crazy-Canuck]

IF we're talking 2/45, fully guaranteed, I don't think we'll have ANY trouble trading it once the restrictions fall off.

There is some chance the Warriors would have trouble trading him (see: Jordan Poole). And in that event it would be devastating for the Warriors because they wouldn't be able to get Steph Curry the help he needs to try to win another Championship.

There might be some parallels, but this is nothing like the Poole situation, IMO. In that case, they had to unload a multi-year bad contract. Here, we'd be talking about 18 months. Unless he's badly injured, or completely incapable for some other reason, $20-25M/year isn't a terrible contract by NBA standards.

Poole was also better.
If dray didn't punch him...

I'd much rather poole at 4/128 than kuminga at a similar number.

Any long term contract for kuminga could absolutely become an albatross contract.

[floppymoose]

By the end of November, JK will be starting. This is true even if he doesnt improve.

[watch1958]

Kick the can down the road. Have a mutual option for the second season. Require that the options be exercised by some date just before the trade deadline.

That way, the options are just another part of the S&T discussion midseason.

Not sure that I understand what a "mutual option" means. If JK plays badly, doesn't play much, or gets hurt, then he can take the option for a second year, but if he plays great, the Dubs can take the option and either keep him or trade him? Seems like, in the first scenario, he's way overpaid and possibly untradeable, and in the second scenario, we're back to where we started, except that they can match salaries to do a trade mid-season, with him locked in for at least one more year for the Dubs or the other team. Am I reading this right?

Of course, if he plays great, then he'll consider himself underpaid again for 2026-27, and potentially hold out to renegotiate, correct? He clearly thinks he's worth more than league GM's do at this point. Don't see any reason why that would change if he plays well this season.

It would be a mutual option where either side can say no. Unless both say yes, no second year.

So if he’s playing bad, he can’t unilaterally opt in for year two, and if he’s playing great the team can’t opt in either.

Essentially in the same position as now, except with a half season of play, and relaxed BYC rules.