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Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins

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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#41 » by SpreeS » Tue Aug 20, 2024 8:35 am

EvanZ wrote:Fire up the treadmill

But hey, I do like Killian Tillie LMAO

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Why not Bruno Caboclo ???

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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#42 » by EvanZ » Tue Aug 20, 2024 5:57 pm

Can't believe Bruno Caboclo is 28
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#43 » by HiRez » Tue Aug 20, 2024 6:53 pm

How would they even sign this guy? Don't Plowden and Beekman already have the 2-way slots? Then you still have Post and Santos and Waters floating around...I think Spencer is already taking a slot too?
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#44 » by SpreeS » Wed Aug 21, 2024 4:43 am

HiRez wrote:How would they even sign this guy? Don't Plowden and Beekman already have the 2-way slots? Then you still have Post and Santos and Waters floating around...I think Spencer is already taking a slot too?


You named 6 players and no one is a half of player to Bruno Caboclo…
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#45 » by zimpy27 » Fri Aug 23, 2024 10:02 am

GSW averaged 45 wins the last 4 seasons with healthy Curry seasons... 1 was a championship season.

The under is the smarter bet
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#46 » by HiRez » Fri Aug 23, 2024 6:35 pm

SpreeS wrote:
HiRez wrote:How would they even sign this guy? Don't Plowden and Beekman already have the 2-way slots? Then you still have Post and Santos and Waters floating around...I think Spencer is already taking a slot too?


You named 6 players and no one is a half of player to Bruno Caboclo…

Well OK I'm not making any judgements on talent, just thinking aren't we already out of roster spots?
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#47 » by CDM_Stats » Fri Aug 23, 2024 6:45 pm

zimpy27 wrote:GSW averaged 45 wins the last 4 seasons with healthy Curry seasons... 1 was a championship season.

The under is the smarter bet


Shouldn’t bet on data that’s so zoomed out like this
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#48 » by dk1115 » Sat Aug 24, 2024 3:41 am

I'm taking the over. I was predicting 45 before it came out.
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#49 » by DaHef » Mon Oct 7, 2024 11:37 pm

1's playing the 2
2's playing the 3
3's playing the 4
4's playing the 5
If they move Wiggins to the 2 and put Kuminga at 3 I might say over but,, Kerr.
I smell another year of Nellie ball.....UNDER. If Curry so much as stubs his toe, way under.
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#50 » by CDM_Stats » Tue Oct 8, 2024 4:11 am

DaHef wrote:1's playing the 2
2's playing the 3
3's playing the 4
4's playing the 5
If they move Wiggins to the 2 and put Kuminga at 3 I might say over but,, Kerr.
I smell another year of Nellie ball.....UNDER. If Curry so much as stubs his toe, way under.


That would be the same lineup that didnt look good vs the Clippers (who didnt have Kawhi) but switching Melton for Wiggins

JK at the 3 effectively means TJD is at the 5. Could be SloMo next to Dray, which would be repetitive and likely fail, or Post next to Dray, which would mean very spotty minutes but quite possibly the only path to success with JK at the 3. Because if you look at last year's pairings, JK was a net negative with 2 people: Dario Saric (-1.8) and TJD (-4.0). And while its tempting to blame it on spacing as the primary reason, Saric being on the list makes that a harder sell. But what both of them have in common, to varying degrees obviously, is below average off-ball defense. Graph below shows it somewhat (Defensive DPM), though this particular metric was extremely kind to Saric:

Image
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#51 » by Nvnervous45 » Tue Oct 8, 2024 6:58 am

Curry
Wiggins
Jk
Dray
Tjd

Only two shooters. Not a big fan
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#52 » by Jester_ » Tue Oct 8, 2024 12:11 pm

CDM_Stats wrote:
DaHef wrote:1's playing the 2
2's playing the 3
3's playing the 4
4's playing the 5
If they move Wiggins to the 2 and put Kuminga at 3 I might say over but,, Kerr.
I smell another year of Nellie ball.....UNDER. If Curry so much as stubs his toe, way under.


That would be the same lineup that didnt look good vs the Clippers (who didnt have Kawhi) but switching Melton for Wiggins

JK at the 3 effectively means TJD is at the 5. Could be SloMo next to Dray, which would be repetitive and likely fail, or Post next to Dray, which would mean very spotty minutes but quite possibly the only path to success with JK at the 3. Because if you look at last year's pairings, JK was a net negative with 2 people: Dario Saric (-1.8) and TJD (-4.0). And while its tempting to blame it on spacing as the primary reason, Saric being on the list makes that a harder sell. But what both of them have in common, to varying degrees obviously, is below average off-ball defense. Graph below shows it somewhat (Defensive DPM), though this particular metric was extremely kind to Saric:

Image


I think a massive problem this year is without floor spacing Kuminga is going to struggle. I fear we have, for the 100th time, missed the chance to sell high again.
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#53 » by floppymoose » Tue Oct 8, 2024 2:41 pm

Take the over
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#54 » by Chris Porter's Hair » Tue Oct 8, 2024 3:43 pm

CDM_Stats wrote:
DaHef wrote:1's playing the 2
2's playing the 3
3's playing the 4
4's playing the 5
If they move Wiggins to the 2 and put Kuminga at 3 I might say over but,, Kerr.
I smell another year of Nellie ball.....UNDER. If Curry so much as stubs his toe, way under.


That would be the same lineup that didnt look good vs the Clippers (who didnt have Kawhi) but switching Melton for Wiggins

JK at the 3 effectively means TJD is at the 5. Could be SloMo next to Dray, which would be repetitive and likely fail, or Post next to Dray, which would mean very spotty minutes but quite possibly the only path to success with JK at the 3. Because if you look at last year's pairings, JK was a net negative with 2 people: Dario Saric (-1.8) and TJD (-4.0). And while its tempting to blame it on spacing as the primary reason, Saric being on the list makes that a harder sell. But what both of them have in common, to varying degrees obviously, is below average off-ball defense. Graph below shows it somewhat (Defensive DPM), though this particular metric was extremely kind to Saric:

Image

For everything that has been written about Looney working on his outside shot, if he's improved enough to even keep teams honest from the outside, that could really change the equation, no? Having a solid defender at the 5 who isn't a complete zero on offense?
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#55 » by CDM_Stats » Tue Oct 8, 2024 7:30 pm

Chris Porter's Hair wrote:For everything that has been written about Looney working on his outside shot, if he's improved enough to even keep teams honest from the outside, that could really change the equation, no? Having a solid defender at the 5 who isn't a complete zero on offense?


I know it could really be used for a catch-all answer, but I think Klay (and Wiggins)' offensive struggles were the biggest reasons why Looney had to go last year. Teams dared us to lob to Looney because we weren't able to score with ball movement like usual. Then defensively, Looney looked way worse because the team defense often scrambled to account for JK's inexperience or Klay's Klayness

Putting Melton at SG and Wiggins back at SF, off-ball, could hit the reset button. Provided that Wiggins is still as athletic and Dray can still cover enough ground
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#56 » by Twinkie defense » Tue Oct 8, 2024 10:59 pm

Won 46 last season so barring something dramatic I'd think they do a little better this season.
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#57 » by floppymoose » Wed Oct 9, 2024 9:10 pm

Regardless of team dynamics, Looney did not look like the same player physically to me last year. I think he was not right. It would be great to see him back in '22 form. That Looney was good, and when the opponents got tough he just got better.
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#58 » by Jester_ » Thu Oct 10, 2024 12:36 pm

floppymoose wrote:Regardless of team dynamics, Looney did not look like the same player physically to me last year. I think he was not right. It would be great to see him back in '22 form. That Looney was good, and when the opponents got tough he just got better.


I agree. I was convinced he had an undisclosed injury for the first half of the season. Didn't look himself and never got his stride.
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#59 » by DaHef » Thu Oct 17, 2024 3:36 am

DaHef wrote:1's playing the 2
2's playing the 3
3's playing the 4
4's playing the 5
If they move Wiggins to the 2 and put Kuminga at 3 I might say over but,, Kerr.
I smell another year of Nellie ball.....UNDER. If Curry so much as stubs his toe, way under.

Thank you for listening to me, Kerr. If you keep this up I'll have to change my pick to the over. :wink:
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Re: Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins 

Post#60 » by wco81 » Thu Oct 17, 2024 3:41 pm

Good to aim for more wins than last season but suppose to be a great draft class ...

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