Wolves season watch thread for the 2021 pick

Coxy · Post #561 » by **Coxy** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:21 am

wco81 wrote:6 made 3 pointers for Antman.

DLO may not get as many minutes when he returns.

Need Dlo to sit out the season. They need wins.

Flash Falcon X · Post #562 » by **Flash Falcon X** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:31 am

Glad to see Minny finally winning. Coming at a great time with Houston racking up the losses, too. They already lost enough games to be at the bottom, now just gotta win some here and there to ensure it’s not a Top 3 pick.

Sam Lowry Jr · Post #563 » by **Sam Lowry Jr** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:48 am

Coxy wrote:
wco81 wrote:6 made 3 pointers for Antman.

DLO may not get as many minutes when he returns.

Need Dlo to sit out the season. They need wins.

Isn't a little bit more complicated than that? If the Wolves finish last, the worst draft pick they can get is 5. If they finish second to last, they (or we) can end up with the 6th pick. If they finish with the third worst record, they can end up with the 7th pick.

In a draft that seems to have a consensus top 5, shouldn't we root for the Wolves to have the worst record?

Coxy · Post #564 » by **Coxy** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:03 am

Sam Lowry Jr wrote:
Coxy wrote:
wco81 wrote:6 made 3 pointers for Antman.

DLO may not get as many minutes when he returns.

Need Dlo to sit out the season. They need wins.

Isn't a little bit more complicated than that? If the Wolves finish last, the worst draft pick they can get is 5. If they finish second to last, they (or we) can end up with the 6th pick. If they finish with the third worst record, they can end up with the 7th pick.

In a draft that seems to have a consensus top 5, shouldn't we root for the Wolves to have the worst record?

The odds arent huge, but if they finish last they have the best chance of ending up with a top 3 pick. I want to pick between 4-7 this draft, as long as we are picking. The Wolves will be much better next season, so I want the pick this season.

HiRez · Post #565 » by **HiRez** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:44 am

Flash Falcon X wrote:Glad to see Minny finally winning. Coming at a great time with Houston racking up the losses, too. They already lost enough games to be at the bottom, now just gotta win some here and there to ensure it’s not a Top 3 pick.

How is that good for us? Let's say Minny wins a few more games in the second half and finish with the 4th worst record. We would get a 36.6% chance of losing the pick this year, and a 44.6% chance of picking #6, #7, or #8. That means we only have an 18.7% chance of picking #4 or #5 this year. That's why I said we should trade that pick before its value goes down. It might not, but as I said before, the chances of it going down from where it is now are a lot better than going up. Holding it is risky, you're betting against the odds. KAT's back healthy, Edwards is blowing up, and they have a more balanced attack (in all 3 games since the break, they have had 6 players in double figures).

Of course the wild card is DLo, his return could glue them back to the cellar.

KevinMcreynolds · Post #566 » by **KevinMcreynolds** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:57 pm

Houston is definitely going to fall below Minny, I think they'll win less than 5 games the rest of the year. If Orlando is selling at the deadline they'll fall below them too. Which puts Minny at 3rd, which is the worst case scenario for us.

KevinMcreynolds · Post #567 » by **KevinMcreynolds** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:02 pm

HiRez wrote:
Flash Falcon X wrote:Glad to see Minny finally winning. Coming at a great time with Houston racking up the losses, too. They already lost enough games to be at the bottom, now just gotta win some here and there to ensure it’s not a Top 3 pick.

How is that good for us? Let's say Minny wins a few more games in the second half and finish with the 4th worst record. We would get a 36.6% chance of losing the pick this year, and a 44.6% chance of picking #6, #7, or #8. That means we only have an 18.7% chance of picking #4 or #5 this year. That's why I said we should trade that pick before its value goes down. It might not, but as I said before, the chances of it going down from where it is now are a lot better than going up. Holding it is risky, you're betting against the odds. KAT's back healthy, Edwards is blowing up, and they have a more balanced attack (in all 3 games since the break, they have had 6 players in double figures).

Of course the wild card is DLo, his return could glue them back to the cellar.

yeah, we definitely want them to stay 1st. Gives us a 60% chance at 4 or 5. Then there's debate whether 2-3 is better than 4-5. 4-5 gives us a better chance to get the pick, but also gives us a lower pick.

kingcong95 · Post #568 » by **kingcong95** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:53 pm

Rockets may have a dead cat bounce coming to them since Wood is expected back soon from his injury, which appears to be the main cause of their long skid.
Pistons had an extremely challenging 1st half schedule but Coach Casey has them playing hard every night. Their entire team has been turned over, but they may pick up a few wins as they get familiar playing together and maybe even get Hayes back.
Magic should sell, but they may not want to. I don't think they'll get an offer they like for Vucevic and he can get them a few extra wins by himself, especially against opponents who look past them.
It may ultimately depend on the remaining matchups between those teams, especially the 3 between the Wolves and Rockets.

KevinMcreynolds · Post #569 » by **KevinMcreynolds** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:56 pm

the main cause of their skid is Wall and Oladipo basically just take turns dribbling down and launching shots so they can statpad. Their effort is some of the worst I've ever seen. Poor Stephan Silas pays dues for 20 years to finally land a gig and he inherits a complete trainwreck.

FloydWarrior · Post #570 » by **FloydWarrior** » Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:20 pm

Did it ever happen an NBA team having #1 pick in consecutive drafts? That ain't right...make the fix Silver.

kingcong95 · Post #571 » by **kingcong95** » Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:26 pm

FloydWarrior wrote:Did it ever happen an NBA team having #1 pick in consecutive drafts? That ain't right...make the fix Silver.

Cavs got it 3 times in 4 years: Irving, Bennett, Wiggins.
Then you have to go back to Orlando in 1992-93: Shaq, Webber.

wco81 · Post #572 » by **wco81** » Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:12 pm

kingcong95 wrote:
FloydWarrior wrote:Did it ever happen an NBA team having #1 pick in consecutive drafts? That ain't right...make the fix Silver.

Cavs got it 3 times in 4 years: Irving, Bennett, Wiggins.
Then you have to go back to Orlando in 1992-93: Shaq, Webber.

YOu'd think Silver would be motivated to help the Warriors since they're a showcased franchise, with potential to generate a lot of revenues for the league.

But OTOH, Minny is trying to sell the franchise and keep it in Minneapolis so adding another top level talent to that team may help get a big sale price and keep the team there, probably improve attendance and local ratings.

TB · Post #573 » by TB » Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:16 pm

It might be time to sell high on the Minny pick... unless we absolutely love Kuminga, Jalen Johnson, Bouknight, etc.

No matter where they finish in bottom 3, there is only a 14% chance at the 4th pick, which will land one of Cade, Mobley, Suggs, Green.

There is a 38% chance the Wolves keep their pick.

And that leaves the 48% chance we get the pick but it bounces to 5th (if they are last), 6th, or 7th.

I happen to really like kuminga, johnson, bouknight, etc... and I love that 14% chance at one of the big 4... but if you are using the odds we are likely offering a trade that will be:

Using beal as example:
Oubre, Wiseman, Kuminga, Wanamaker for Beal.

And with the rockets and Pistons playing so poorly, you could be swapping kuminga for a Johnson, Moody, Bouknight etc.

donkeylips · Post #574 » by **donkeylips** » Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:18 am

id be ok with kuminga or barnes. both guys can be small ball 4s

lars_rosenberg · Post #575 » by **lars_rosenberg** » Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:37 am

Anthony Edwards is starting show flashes of star potential.
In the last few games he's been a consistent scorer and last night he erupted with a 42 points performance.
If he continues on this trajectory we better hope we get the pick this year.
Unless they keep D'lo. It's not a coincidence that Ant-man is playing his best basketball since D'lo got injured.

TB · Post #576 » by TB » Fri Mar 19, 2021 4:36 pm

Whats everyones 5-8 range in the draft? Thats likely where we land based on the odds. I've currently got it:

5. Kuminga
6. Johnson
7. Barnes
8. Bouknight

And for reference on where I would have had this years class, I had Wiseman number 1 and would probably have him at 7 if the drafts were combined.

Post #577 » by **FNQ** » Fri Mar 19, 2021 4:44 pm

TB wrote:It might be time to sell high on the Minny pick... unless we absolutely love Kuminga, Jalen Johnson, Bouknight, etc.

No matter where they finish in bottom 3, there is only a 14% chance at the 4th pick, which will land one of Cade, Mobley, Suggs, Green.

There is a 38% chance the Wolves keep their pick.

And that leaves the 48% chance we get the pick but it bounces to 5th (if they are last), 6th, or 7th.

I happen to really like kuminga, johnson, bouknight, etc... and I love that 14% chance at one of the big 4... but if you are using the odds we are likely offering a trade that will be:

Using beal as example:
Oubre, Wiseman, Kuminga, Wanamaker for Beal.

And with the rockets and Pistons playing so poorly, you could be swapping kuminga for a Johnson, Moody, Bouknight etc.

Everyone else will come around on it eventually as the reality sets in

Onus · Post #578 » by **Onus** » Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:48 am

Finch is going to turn this team around. Edwards has been putting up big numbers and they're hanging in with the suns again tonight

Coxy · Post #579 » by **Coxy** » Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:51 am

Onus wrote:Finch is going to turn this team around. Edwards has been putting up big numbers and they're hanging in with the suns again tonight

I'm watching the game as well. They look better, but the Suns look pretty flat.

I really like Naz Reid for the Wolves, he could be way more than he is.

Coxy · Post #580 » by **Coxy** » Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:57 am

Also, KAT is the most widly overrated player in the league. He is the laziest defender that has no awareness on that end. He also takes his team out of flow on offense because he demands past ups and the rest of the Wolves just stand and watch. He's an excellent shooter, unreal actually, but the devil is in the detail with him.

He and Dlo are made for each other.