EvanZ wrote:vvoland wrote:EvanZ wrote:
So you think Lauri is worth like 15 wins? Hmm...
Yes, if those wins are 21 - 35. No, if they're wins 41-55 and hell to the naw, if they're wins 51-65.
How many wins would he add to the Warriors in your opinion?
That's a tough one because this team has so much more variance than a typical team that's in the mid 40s. I'll try 3 scenarios:
With another Dray suspension, a Curry injury and/or regression from JK/Podz/TJD this is a 30 win team and having Lauri instead of JK + GP2, for example, probably pushes us into the high 30s, low 40s. So, at worst for the team, at best for Lauri, he might make a 10 win difference.
In a more realistic scenario, where Lauri costs us Podz, Moody, & filler and Dray and Steph both play 65 games, we're probably a 46-50 win team and I'm not sure Lauri actually adds that many wins at that level. Let's say 4?
In an optimistic scenario, same cost for Lauri but Dray/Steph are healthy, Wigs returns to form while JK and either TJD or Moody takes another step or two, we're a team in 50-55 win range and I'm not sure how much Lauri impacts winning at that level. I'm not even sure he closes in this optimistic scenario. Steph, Dray, Wigs, JK and the 5th could be a defensive closer if JK is shooting 3s (like GP2 or Loon/TJD against bigger teams) or Lauri if we need the offense. So maybe a 1-2 win difference if this team is actually hitting on all cylinders and able to be a threat in the playoffs.
