Wolves season watch thread for the 2021 pick

[floppymoose]

Detroit looks overmatched.

Updated odds:
2022 unprotected - 29.5%
2021 pick 4 - 10.1%
2021 pick 6 - 8.5%
2021 pick 7 - 28.5%
2021 pick 8 - 20.0%%
2021 pick 9 - 3.6%
2021 pick 10 - 0.1%

I guess I don't know the new lotto rules, because I don't understand why both 4 and 6 are possible but 5 isn't.

[Hopper15]

Lottery is for first 4 spots only and then it goes in reverse order after that. 5 is not possible from the 6th worst spot.

[floppymoose]

Ah so the odds are specifically listed for 6th spot, not for all range of outcomes (MIN could finish 5th, for instance). Got it, thanks.

[KevinMcreynolds]

I think they're locked in for the 6th spot, the other 5 teams are all going to go winless the rest of the way

[Coxy]

We are totally getting that Minny pick this year.

Draft day beers, here I come.

[Hopper15]

I think they're locked in for the 6th spot, the other 5 teams are all going to go winless the rest of the way

Cleveland just threw a monkey wrench into the mix. How are ties broken, if at all?

[Old_Blue]

I think they're locked in for the 6th spot, the other 5 teams are all going to go winless the rest of the way

Cleveland just threw a monkey wrench into the mix. How are ties broken, if at all?

A coin is flipped. Heads is an image of Adam Silver. Tails is an image of Nosferatu. Results can take several minutes to decipher.

[DevinVassell]

Sold!

Marc Lore, Alex Rodriguez Agree To Buy Wolves For $1.5 Billion

Does this mean wolves keep their own pick this year?

Conspiracy theorists?

[wco81]

Hmm, that franchise sale is bad news for the Warriors.

NBA wants to help the new owners have every chance to keep the team in Minneapolis and that means they need attendance and local ratings.

But there's no marquis name in the draft like Zion a couple of years ago or maybe Luka.

[GSWFan1994]

A coin is flipped. Heads is an image of Adam Silver. Tails is an image of Nosferatu. Results can take several minutes to decipher.

Here's Adam arriving for the draft lottery night.

[kingcong95]

Alright, so the Wolves got blown out again today, which leaves the lottery standings as follows:
3. OKC 21-50
4. ORL 21-50
5. MIN 22-49
6. CLE 22-49
Here's where things get interesting tomorrow well after our game is finished.
The Wolves host the Mavs, who need to win to clinch the 5 seed. They'll probably lose that one.
The Magic are at the Sixers, who have clinched the top seed and have nothing to play for.
The Cavs are at the Nets, who may have the 2 seed clinched tonight if the Bucks lose to the Heat (which they might prefer to do if a loss means they get the Knicks in the first round instead).
The Thunder host the Clippers, who threw their game to the Rockets last night.
The Nuggets and Clippers are tied for 3 seed, but the 4 seed might have the advantage of not facing the Lakers until the conference finals. Blazers will be desperate to win because it's the only way to bail themselves out of the play in.

With so many teams not incentivized to try to win tomorrow, the fairly realistic best case scenario for the Wolves pick odds is a three way tie for #3 where OKC, ORL, MIN each finish 22-50 while CLE finishes 23-49. Detroit at 2 is out of reach since they can't finish with more than 21 wins, and they're hosting Miami who need to beat them.

What happens in this case is that a random drawing will be conducted to break the tie for 3-4-5. Let's say that the result is MIN 3, OKC 4, ORL 5. This determines the default order going into the lottery itself. And the order would be reversed for the second round: ORL 33, OKC 34, MIN 35 (to OKC). That would be our ideal scenario for everything leading up to the lottery itself: only a 62% chance to get the pick at all, but only a tiny chance to drop even as low as 7, with 6 being the most likely outcome, and also minimizing the pick we traded away for Oubre.

[Hopper15]

Alright, so the Wolves got blown out again today, which leaves the lottery standings as follows:
3. OKC 21-50
4. ORL 21-50
5. MIN 22-49
6. CLE 22-49
Here's where things get interesting tomorrow well after our game is finished.
The Wolves host the Mavs, who need to win to clinch the 5 seed. They'll probably lose that one.
The Magic are at the Sixers, who have clinched the top seed and have nothing to play for.
The Cavs are at the Nets, who may have the 2 seed clinched tonight if the Bucks lose to the Heat (which they might prefer to do if a loss means they get the Knicks in the first round instead).
The Thunder host the Clippers, who threw their game to the Rockets last night.
The Nuggets and Clippers are tied for 3 seed, but the 4 seed might have the advantage of not facing the Lakers until the conference finals. Blazers will be desperate to win because it's the only way to bail themselves out of the play in.

With so many teams not incentivized to try to win tomorrow, the fairly realistic best case scenario for the Wolves pick odds is a three way tie for #3 where OKC, ORL, MIN each finish 22-50 while CLE finishes 23-49. Detroit at 2 is out of reach since they can't finish with more than 21 wins, and they're hosting Miami who need to beat them.

What happens in this case is that a random drawing will be conducted to break the tie for 3-4-5. Let's say that the result is MIN 3, OKC 4, ORL 5. This determines the default order going into the lottery itself. And the order would be reversed for the second round: ORL 33, OKC 34, MIN 35 (to OKC). That would be our ideal scenario for everything leading up to the lottery itself.

Good info. I'm cool if they finish 3rd, 4th, or 5th worst. 6th is not a good position since it eliminates the 5th pick from a possibility and brings the 10th pick into play (miniscule chance).

Here's to the top teams tanking tomorrow. :cheers:

[GQ Hot Dog]

Not only are we fighting for a playoff berth, we're simultaneously fighting for a juicy draft pick. We're the luckiest fan base in basketball.

[tal57]

GS own pick is also locked into 16th or 17th depending on Sunday's game.

[hamncheese]

GS own pick is also locked into 16th or 17th depending on Sunday's game.

I think 16th is impossible. No matter if they win or lose, there will be two playoff teams from the East with worse records. They get the 15th and 16th picks should the Warriors make the playoffs. If Warriors don't make the playoffs they are likely 14th in the lotto.

[kingcong95]

The other thing is that we can have a worse record than the Grizz, Lakers, and Blazers, but would need to knock one of them out to make the play in. Add two of them to the 11 teams guaranteed to skip the play in, and our pick will be 17 if we survive, either 13 or 14 if we don't.
The only way 13 is attainable is if we play the Spurs at any point of the play in and lose to them, allowing them to claim the 8 seed.

[HiRez]

Earlier in the year it was looking likely something like #5 (MIN) and #10 (GS). Now we're looking at more than likely #7 and #17. Still nice to have those picks over nothing but not really the gold mine we wanted either. And #7 + #17 combined probably isn't enough to move up into the top 5 either.

[Hopper15]

Shout out to the Sixers for trying for us.

Read on Twitter

[Hopper15]

Unfortunately BKN needs to beat CLE to keep the 2 seed. Cavs locked in at 22 wins. Wins by OKC, Dallas, and Orlando is best case scenario for ping pong balls tonight.

[whatisacenter]

now matter what happens with the Minny pick I am just happy that we got Wiggins for dLO