WISEMAN EXPECTATIONS: Year 1

[Warriors Analyst]

AD's rookie year: +2.5 bpm, +0.14 rpm
Wiseman as of today: -4.3 bpm, -1.5 rpm

I was gonna post that too. I looked at Davis' shot tracking numbers for his rookie year too, out of curiosity.

Davis:








Wiseman:







For fun, here's a third mystery player you all should be familiar with.







It's worth mentioning that Wiseman is getting a diet of mostly easy looks in the restricted area because he's getting lobs and duck-ins and cuts off of the slip screen that are bound to happen when you play with Steph. It's the stuff outside of the restricted area that's really concerning.

Out of curiosity I looked at lineup stats of two man pairings with Steph since the Kerr era began. There are exactly four Steph pairings that played more than 30 minutes that performed worse than Steph/Wiseman, and keep in mind, we have 403 minutes of sample size.

Steph/D-Lee in 2018-19 had a -17.2 net rating with 89.3 ORTG in 72 minutes. Rush/Curry was -15.3 in 59 minutes with an ORTG of 91.3 in 2014-15. Varejao/Steph was -24.8 in 47 minutes with a 99.0 OTRG in 2016-17 (there's a Vareajo/Steph pairing also in the negative in 2015-16 for -6 net rating) and Steph/McAdoo was -8.3 in 2014-15 in 31 minutes.

It's alarming stuff. There's really no other way to spin it.

EDIT: I didn't look at anything from 2019-20 because the sample size was so small, but out of curiosity and fairness here we go... 27 minutes of Steph/Wiggins was -23.1, 86 minutes of Steph/Draymond was -23, Steph/Dlo was -30.3 in 74 minutes, Steph/GRIII was -12.5 in 65 minutes, Steph/JTA -32.8 in 15 minutes, Steph/Looney -17.4 in 10 minutes, and Steph/Chriss -23.5 in 55 minutes. The only players who did ok in these minuscule sample sizes next to Steph were Evans at -1.3, Poole at +2.8, Lee at +11.1, and Spellman +25.6. Not much to be gleamed from such a small sample size, but I still maintain that we should cut Smiley and pick up Spellman on a two-way once JTA gets his real contract.

[SpreeS]

AD's rookie year: +2.5 bpm, +0.14 rpm
Wiseman as of today: -4.3 bpm, -1.5 rpm

AD had negative BPM in first 20 games. Started season with 5W/15L. Also he played 40 games In Kentucky.

I dont want to write here all rookie C/F stats and age, also non of them played on PO team except Sabonis. But this list is with players with worse stats, older and played on non PO teams

Vucevic, Sabonis, Adebayo, Jokic, Davis, Giannis, Embiid started at 22y, Drummond, Gobert, Adams, Valanciunas.

[cpower]

Anthony Davis per 36 rookie year after a full year in college at a top program:

16.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 3.4 fouls

Not one three made for the year.

Wiseman per 36 rookie year 23 games since his 3 games in college:
21 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks 5.6 fouls shoots threes.

monta ellis, corey maggette david lee all had amazing per 36 numbers. dont look at per 36 look at how the lineup performed with him. I only saw huge production decrease when wiseman is on the floor and that is all it mattered.
bogut was so much more impactful than kanter because he does not use possessions and his elite passing made Curry/Klay much better. wiseman needs to find other ways to impact the games other than trying to iso all the way inside.

[Onus]

Wiseman is a huge project who you won't see dividends from until most likely year 3 at the earliest. Then you have to be realistic about what his ceiling is. What kind of defensive player will he be? Will he only allow you to play drop defense? What type of offense do you have to run if you run offense through him. I think if he had better vision they could run post offense through him so that they can run split action off of him. Can he be a pick and roll player that is able to make decisions off of the short roll like draymond? What can he rely on consistently that he can go to? It should be his size. He needs to try to put people through the rim or get as close to the rim as possible

[SpreeS]

Anthony Davis per 36 rookie year after a full year in college at a top program:

16.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 3.4 fouls

Not one three made for the year.

Wiseman per 36 rookie year 23 games since his 3 games in college:
21 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks 5.6 fouls shoots threes.

monta ellis, corey maggette david lee all had amazing per 36 numbers. dont look at per 36 look at how the lineup performed with him. I only saw huge production decrease when wiseman is on the floor and that is all it mattered.
bogut was so much more impactful than kanter because he does not use possessions and his elite passing made Curry/Klay much better. wiseman needs to find other ways to impact the games other than trying to iso all the way inside.

Its not only Wiseman problem, that Green cant score, Oubre couldnt hit anything in the first 20 games, Wiggins cant create for others and is too passive. This starting lineup didnt work for a lot of reasons

[clyde21]

lol @ people comparing Wiseman to AD

[KevinMcreynolds]

Anthony Davis per 36 rookie year after a full year in college at a top program:

16.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 3.4 fouls

Not one three made for the year.

Wiseman per 36 rookie year 23 games since his 3 games in college:
21 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks 5.6 fouls shoots threes.

monta ellis, corey maggette david lee all had amazing per 36 numbers. dont look at per 36 look at how the lineup performed with him. I only saw huge production decrease when wiseman is on the floor and that is all it mattered.
bogut was so much more impactful than kanter because he does not use possessions and his elite passing made Curry/Klay much better. wiseman needs to find other ways to impact the games other than trying to iso all the way inside.

Its not only Wiseman problem, that Green cant score, Oubre couldnt hit anything in the first 20 games, Wiggins cant create for others and is too passive. This starting lineup didnt work for a lot of reasons

seems to be working pretty good to me, we’re 19-16 playing half the season with no bigs

[cpower]

Anthony Davis per 36 rookie year after a full year in college at a top program:

16.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 3.4 fouls

Not one three made for the year.

Wiseman per 36 rookie year 23 games since his 3 games in college:
21 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks 5.6 fouls shoots threes.

monta ellis, corey maggette david lee all had amazing per 36 numbers. dont look at per 36 look at how the lineup performed with him. I only saw huge production decrease when wiseman is on the floor and that is all it mattered.
bogut was so much more impactful than kanter because he does not use possessions and his elite passing made Curry/Klay much better. wiseman needs to find other ways to impact the games other than trying to iso all the way inside.

Its not only Wiseman problem, that Green cant score, Oubre couldnt hit anything in the first 20 games, Wiggins cant create for others and is too passive. This starting lineup didnt work for a lot of reasons

but inserting Looney into the starting lineup solved all the issues? they are + 18 per 100 while with wiseman they are -16 per 100. And if you look closely, pretty much all the bad lineup has wiseman there..
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2021/lineups/

[EvanZ]

LaMelo is a top 10 trade asset right now. Not sure Wiseman is top 50.

[Old_Blue]

LaMelo is a top 10 trade asset right now. Not sure Wiseman is top 50.

Top 10 is a little too enthusiastic just yet. But, yes, LaMelo is definitely looking the part of a franchise cornerstone player. What he is doing at the age of 19 is extremely impressive. He had his second 30 point game tonight to go along with a typical (for him) 6 boards and 8 assists. What can you say...LaMelo is a prodigy whereas Wiseman is a project.

[reamily]

So if this thing hold up we will see Jmaes "Mr. Per 36 mi nutes" Wiseman

[Mylie10]

AD's rookie year: +2.5 bpm, +0.14 rpm
Wiseman as of today: -4.3 bpm, -1.5 rpm

Plus minus on a sample as small as 23 games is idiotic. You need a full year sample to even have a legit convo about those types of stats.

But if you notice I didn’t make a statement either way. I just posted per 36 numbers. No comment about either.

Typical

[Mylie10]

Anthony Davis per 36 rookie year after a full year in college at a top program:

16.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 3.4 fouls

Not one three made for the year.

Wiseman per 36 rookie year 23 games since his 3 games in college:
21 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks 5.6 fouls shoots threes.

monta ellis, corey maggette david lee all had amazing per 36 numbers. dont look at per 36 look at how the lineup performed with him. I only saw huge production decrease when wiseman is on the floor and that is all it mattered.
bogut was so much more impactful than kanter because he does not use possessions and his elite passing made Curry/Klay much better. wiseman needs to find other ways to impact the games other than trying to iso all the way inside.

Man you guys are obtuse!

We CAN look at per 36 as a gauge to production per minute. So when some dummy goes around saying, Wiseman can’t rebound! Well he’s rebounding at a PACE! That’s has him with and close to many Hall of Famers in their rookie years. That’s all. I Didn’t mention impact, just posted their numbers.

You know why? Because every team and it’s make up and style is diffferent. You can’t have equal impact when you are playing with different players, different situations, and different agendas on each team. But you can look at the pace of their production. And you can look at their impact. They were just numbers, I did not attach a judgement or statement to them other than Wiseman is already shooting the 3 and Davis didn’t start shooting it for a couple years after.

[Mylie10]

Wiseman is a huge project who you won't see dividends from until most likely year 3 at the earliest. Then you have to be realistic about what his ceiling is. What kind of defensive player will he be? Will he only allow you to play drop defense? What type of offense do you have to run if you run offense through him. I think if he had better vision they could run post offense through him so that they can run split action off of him. Can he be a pick and roll player that is able to make decisions off of the short roll like draymond? What can he rely on consistently that he can go to? It should be his size. He needs to try to put people through the rim or get as close to the rim as possible

It’s not gonna take three years for him to learn the offense and defense. And once he has that down he’ll help on defense in a couple of areas even if he isn’t the Bogut we will hope he can be. But how many Boguta have ever played? But understanding the rotations is the hardest thing he’s dealing with right now. Shouldn’t take him three years to figure it out lol

[Mylie10]

lol @ people comparing Wiseman to AD

Use some context

[SpreeS]

monta ellis, corey maggette david lee all had amazing per 36 numbers. dont look at per 36 look at how the lineup performed with him. I only saw huge production decrease when wiseman is on the floor and that is all it mattered.
bogut was so much more impactful than kanter because he does not use possessions and his elite passing made Curry/Klay much better. wiseman needs to find other ways to impact the games other than trying to iso all the way inside.

Its not only Wiseman problem, that Green cant score, Oubre couldnt hit anything in the first 20 games, Wiggins cant create for others and is too passive. This starting lineup didnt work for a lot of reasons

but inserting Looney into the starting lineup solved all the issues? they are + 18 per 100 while with wiseman they are -16 per 100. And if you look closely, pretty much all the bad lineup has wiseman there..
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2021/lineups/

What issues did Looney solve as a starter?

Wiseman as starter

W avg/bad teams CHI/DET/SAC/TOR good teams POR/LAC/LAL/SAN
L avg/bad teams IND/DEN/NY good teams BRK/MIL/POR/LAC/UTA

Looney as starter

W avg/bad teams MIN/MIN/DET/IND/NY/CHA good teams NONE
L avg/bad teams BOS good teams LAL/PHO

NY is the best team what we won with Looney as starter. Lee and Mulder also are net positive and Oubre net negative, but this doesnt mean much. Looney has way weaker schedule and Ourbe is hitting 3P on 41% rate, when Wiseman had Ourbe with 20% 3P shooting and oponents like BRK/MIL/POR/LAC/LAL/UTA/DEN/SAN/IND. Also season start was bad b/c this team was totaly new.

[EvanZ]

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[Mylie10]

Smh

[Mylie10]

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Warriors fans? Since when did Warriors fans have front office decision making powers?

Seems to me your agenda should be pointed at the front office, Steve Kerr, and Lacob.

They are making the decisions. We have no power as fans to make any type of roster decision, or rotation decision, or playing style decision. Nothing.

So stick a cork in it. Lol

[EvanZ]

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