2016 NBA Draft Thread

[TylerTurban]

Who ya got?

Biggest areas of need:

1. SF
2. Backup Center
3. Depth

Nigel Hayes was the guy I really wanted, but he's going back to school.

Who should the Warriors target this draft?

I'll throw a name out there - Pascal Siakam. Big, lengthy tough dude that'll do a lot of dirty work on the interior.

[Onus]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1454195
This thread in the nba draft forum did a great job of breaking down the college centers. Worth a read ...

For SF: Luwawu, Prince or Zipser.

Centers: Onuaku, Qi

For some offensive punch I'd take Kay Felder, but for sure we don't take him because he can't play with Steph.

[Left*My*Heart]

This might get merged with the other thread, I think there is a lot of quality players in this draft, primarily as role players that could fill a niche. They say we are targeting toughness and there is general thought that we are a little soft, even with Green.

[TylerTurban]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1454195
This thread in the nba draft forum did a great job of breaking down the college centers. Worth a read ...

For SF: Luwawu, Prince or Zipser.

Centers: Onuaku, Qi

For some offensive punch I'd take Kay Felder, but for sure we don't take him because he can't play with Steph.

Any thoughts on Siakam?

[Onus]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1454195
This thread in the nba draft forum did a great job of breaking down the college centers. Worth a read ...

For SF: Luwawu, Prince or Zipser.

Centers: Onuaku, Qi

For some offensive punch I'd take Kay Felder, but for sure we don't take him because he can't play with Steph.

Any thoughts on Siakam?

Not huge on Siakam, for my bigs I want defense. I think he's too light to hold his own in the post and he'll get moved around a lot. He's kind of a throwback 4 who will need to make it as a small ball 5 in this era. Just don't think he has the strength to cut it in that scenario as he's already 22.

[Left*My*Heart]

Draftexpress has us drafting Johnson. I'm not sure how that fits into the Warriors thoughts of getting tougher. I would be surprised if we took a project big man with our first round pick, unless its a Euro we are staffing overseas.

[TylerTurban]

Draftexpress has us drafting Johnson. I'm not sure how that fits into the Warriors thoughts of getting tougher. I would be surprised if we took a project big man with our first round pick, unless its a Euro we are staffing overseas.

Can't afford to stash a big overseas at this point. We need someone that can contribute in the pain immediately.

[mos_def]

juancho hernangomez
taurean prince
deandre bembry
guershon yabusele

[Left*My*Heart]

Draftexpress has us drafting Johnson. I'm not sure how that fits into the Warriors thoughts of getting tougher. I would be surprised if we took a project big man with our first round pick, unless its a Euro we are staffing overseas.

Can't afford to stash a big overseas at this point. We need someone that can contribute in the pain immediately.

Oh I agree with you and think we need to draft players that can contribute right away. Stashing comes into play if they find a Euro they are interested in and could use the cap savings by stashing them overseas, like the Spurs have successfully done.

[Left*My*Heart]

How about Thom Maker if he slipped to us?

[azwfan]

How about Thom Maker if he slipped to us?

I know some here like him, but i am not a Thon Maker believer. I saw an entire game of his on Youtube (against another High School) and he did not stand out.

[Left*My*Heart]

How about Thom Maker?

[TylerTurban]

How about Thom Maker if he slipped to us?

Years away from being a contributer, IMO. I like the potential..but I don't want to wait.

[cdubbz]

just wondering. Has any draft website ever been correct?! ever?

[Onus]

How about Thom Maker if he slipped to us?

I know some here like him, but i am not a Thon Maker believer. I saw an entire game of his on Youtube (against another High School) and he did not stand out.

Thon Maker is all hype, he couldn't even dominate hs kids with his physical gifts, huge bust potential. I'd much rather gamble on Zhou Qi if we do take on a project.

[Onus]

I think the trick in the later rounds is finding something a prospect will be able to do at an NBA level already, that way they can have a defined role and grow from it. When you're so versatile and need to work on so many things at once, it's just way too hard to pick all those things up quickly and your role will be constantly changing so you'll never be good to great at any one particular thing

[Left*My*Heart]

How about Thom Maker if he slipped to us?

I know some here like him, but i am not a Thon Maker believer. I saw an entire game of his on Youtube (against another High School) and he did not stand out.

Thon Maker is all hype, he couldn't even dominate hs kids with his physical gifts, huge bust potential. I'd much rather gamble on Zhou Qi if we do take on a project.

Thanks, I know nothing about him. I had read where Bogut was hyping him to the Warriors, but I don't know if there is any truth to that. I know nothing about any of the international players, so I can't comment on Qi.

It would be against Jerry West's draft philosophy and I'm sure he is still pulling the trigger on who we draft.

Has anyone heard his annual pre draft likes and dislikes? You can tell who we are drafting after listening to him and surprisingly the front office allows him to give a free draft assessment to the rest of the NBA.

[azwfan]

I think the trick in the later rounds is finding something a prospect will be able to do at an NBA level already, that way they can have a defined role and grow from it. When you're so versatile and need to work on so many things at once, it's just way too hard to pick all those things up quickly and your role will be constantly changing so you'll never be good to great at any one particular thing

I agree. I also think we should not be concerned with "finding a big man" or a "shooter" or whatever. We just need to find someone who we think can have ANY kind of role at the NBA level. Whether he's a point guard, wing, or big man... we just need someone who can play. If he can play, but doesn't quite fit... that is a ton better than needing a big man, and drafting a big man who can't play.

[Onus]

I think the trick in the later rounds is finding something a prospect will be able to do at an NBA level already, that way they can have a defined role and grow from it. When you're so versatile and need to work on so many things at once, it's just way too hard to pick all those things up quickly and your role will be constantly changing so you'll never be good to great at any one particular thing

I agree. I also think we should not be concerned with "finding a big man" or a "shooter" or whatever. We just need to find someone who we think can have ANY kind of role at the NBA level. Whether he's a point guard, wing, or big man... we just need someone who can play. If he can play, but doesn't quite fit... that is a ton better than needing a big man, and drafting a big man who can't play.

Agreed, but there should be plenty of players to choose from that should be able to fill a role on our team at our pick. There will be bigs, there should be an instant offense guy like Felder, and probably a few wings that can play.

[Onus]

I know some here like him, but i am not a Thon Maker believer. I saw an entire game of his on Youtube (against another High School) and he did not stand out.

Thon Maker is all hype, he couldn't even dominate hs kids with his physical gifts, huge bust potential. I'd much rather gamble on Zhou Qi if we do take on a project.

Thanks, I know nothing about him. I had read where Bogut was hyping him to the Warriors, but I don't know if there is any truth to that. I know nothing about any of the international players, so I can't comment on Qi.

It would be against Jerry West's draft philosophy and I'm sure he is still pulling the trigger on who we draft.

Has anyone heard his annual pre draft likes and dislikes? You can tell who we are drafting after listening to him and surprisingly the front office allows him to give a free draft assessment to the rest of the NBA.

I'll start with full disclosure of where I'm coming from: I am a draft fanatic, and try to look at prospects independent of scouting opinion. I find I tend to prioritize physical tools, advanced metrics projections, and age over things like experience, winning history, and NCAA/International accomplishments. Sometimes it works well (I loved KCP, Gobert, Fournier, Brandon Knight, and Dennis Schroeder, who all have outperformed their draft positions) and other times it backfires (I loved Lucas Nogueira, Archie Goodwin, and Glen Rice, and I thought Jamaal Franklin was a future all-star). Regardless, because of my belief in advanced metrics and physical tools, I have fallen in love with Zhou Qi.

At first glance Qi looks like the classic international bust. Tempting tools, but never able to bring it together at the NBA level. I have often been the skeptic in these situations as well, but I think Qi has been unfairly lumped into this category.

Here are some of the reasons to be very excited about Zhou Qi:

- Zhou Qi ranks as the #1 prospect in Kevin Pelton's WARP projections, despite being #48 on the big board. Pelton's WARP projetions have been good at finding diamonds in the rough before among lower rated prospects. Some examples: In 2006 Millsap ranked 2nd in WARP and was picked 47th, Rondo rated 6th in WARP and was picked 21st. In 2007 Rudy Fernandez ranked 3rd in WARP and was picked 24th. In 2008 Chalmers was ranked 5th in WARP and was picked 34th. Koufos ranked 9th in WARP and was picked 23rd. In 2009 Lawson and Jrue were ranks 7th and 8th in WARP and went 18th and 17th. In 2010 Whiteside was ranked 5th in WARP but went 33rd. In 2011 Kenneth Faried ranked 1st in WARP and was picked 22nd and Reggie Jackson was ranked 10th and went 24th. In 2012 Draymond Green and Jae Crowder were ranked 3rd and 4th in WARP, and went 35th and 34th. You get the point. Players with top ten WARPs are almost always good NBA players, and Qi's is first in the draft this year.

- Zhou Qi has averaged the highest block rate in the Chinese Basketball Association on record. That list includes many NBA big men, and it isn't close.

- Out of 149 qualified players in the CBA, Qi's PER ranks 18th, at 22.1, great for a 20 year old. And as a 19 year old it was even better at 22.6. For reference, Mudiay finished last year with a 17.9 PER in the CBA. Qi's PER is higher than other players in the league with NBA experience, like Ike Diogu (21.3), Von Wafer (21), Hamed Haddadi (20.7), Jason Maxiell (20.5), Bernard James (20.3), A.J. Price (20.4), Andrew Goudelock (19.5), Jeremy Pargo (18.9), and Dominic McGuire (18.6). Obviously a lot of those are just fringe NBA players, or at best role players, but when you consider that Qi is 20 and most of them are between 24-33, now playing in their primes, it is impressive. It gives confidence that even if he doesn't reach his ceiling, his floor is probably high enough for him to make an NBA roster, which is not a bad outcome to get from a late first or second round pick.

- Zhou Qi has the highest offensive rating in the entire CBA. He has the highest true shooting percentage as well. It may not be the most competitive league in the world, but it is still a league that contains players like Andray Blatche, Michael Beasley, MarShon Brooks, and Dorell Wright. Those aren't scrubs. Qi is shooting over 60% from the field, and shot almost 70% the year before. That's especially impressive given the high volume of jumpers Qi takes. He also gets to the line at the second highest rate of any CBA player, and shoots almost 76% from it, another example of his touch.

- Qi is also not just a stat stuffer, and this isn't an issue of small sample size. Qi played the most total minutes for Xinjiang Guanghui, a team that went 33-12, good for 3rd in the league. Qi played more total minutes than his teammates Goudelock, Blatche, or Bryce Cotton. He finished 3rd on the team in ppg (15.8), 2nd in rpg (9.8), 2nd in spg (1.1), and 1st in bpg (3.2).

There are plenty of Zhou Qi detractors out there, and I think it is helpful to address some of their arguments/concerns:

Is he actually 20?: Rumors have been circling that Qi is actually around 23. However, there seems to be very little evidence of this. In the case of Yi Jianlian there was a lot of concrete evidence to point to him forging his age, including ID's, birth certificates, and even his own confession to teammates. Even in the case of Bismack Biyombo there was at least a decent trail of breadcrumbs that hinted something was wrong. In Qi's case, this rumor seems to be based more on his ethnicity and comparisons to Yi than it is on anything concrete. None of the signs are there that he is being deceptive like there was in that instance. Yi started playing professional ball when he was "14", which we now know he was actually 18. In retrospect it seems obvious. With Qi, the timeline is not awry like with Yi. The only "evidence" that anyone has been able to point to of forgery is in a Chinese forum, when a commentor insists that Qi joined a basketball school when he was 9, but the minimum age is 13. Chinese officials have responded saying he was given an exemption and a private tutor/coach, which seems believable.

He doesn't weigh enough!: That's probably true. Zhou Qi only weighs in aroun 215-220, despite being 7'2". He is a twig. But there is reason to believe he can fill in his frame, he is young and has yet to work with professional weight trainers. I also believe this concern is overstated. Qi's primary position is likely at power forward, where guys will not be attempting to push him around as much and his massive length advantage can make up for any ground he loses. The statistical signs of someone getting pushed around are also absent. He shoots a high percentage from the floor, he rebounds at a high rate, and he gets to the line often which shows he is not attempting to avoid contact. Sure the CBA is not nearly as physically imposing as the NBA, but Qi still has to bang with guys like Alan Williams, Haddadi, Esteban Batista, Eli Holman, Maxiell, Blatche, Randolph Morris, and Ike Diogu, who are all listed at 260 lbs or over.

He's a Yi Jianlian Clone: The Chairman is the ultimate example and the poster child of banking on physical tools. He seemed like a very athletic 7 footer, with touch, range, and mobility. People thought he might be the next Dirk. A few unproductive seasons later he was back in China, and NBA teams and fans seem to have grown more skeptical of international prospects because of it, especially Chinese big men. I think this comparison is unfair for many reasons, but the biggest one is their disparity in production. Now that we actually know Yi's age, his seasons at 19 and 20 pale in comparison to Qi's. Yi averaged 5 ppg and 3.3 rpg when he was 19, and 9.7 ppg, and 5.9 rpg when he was 20. He also shot much less efficiently than Qi and was a much worse passer. I also believe Qi is more naturally athletic than Yi. While Yi was considered athletic for his size, his stride looked laborous and difficult. Qi, on the other hand, takes long strides and looks very natural running the floor, and getting above the rim. The comparisons to Porzingis are apt and very interesting in a number of ways.

He will be stuck overseas: Yes Zhou is currently under contract with Xinjiang and is for a few more years, but they seem to be very willing to negotiate a buyout. At worst, it seems Qi may have to play one more season in China before coming to the NBA, but their season ends in spring and so he may even get some time on the floor next year, even assuming the worst. That is not a bad arrangement, especially for a prospect who may need a little more developing regardless.

I think Qi has the potential to be a top 3 talent in this draft. He has a wingspan that is only topped by Rudy Gobert and Boban, he runs the floor effortlessly, he is multi-skilled and has the potential to spread the floor. His length even gives him the potential to be a great rim protector down the road. He is not as polished as Porzingis is at the moment, but he may not be as far off as many think, and he may even develop into a better rebounder and rim protector with his superior length.

His potential is endless and his floor is not as low as many seem to think. I would wager that whoever grabs Qi, whether in the late first round, or in the second round, is going to find that they hit the jackpot.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/4omcy0/the_case_for_zhou_qi/