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Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team.

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lolathon234
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#201 » by lolathon234 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:41 pm

Durant will likely come back at 90% of his former self at worst, at best there will be no drop-off. Achilles injuries are undoubtedly one of the more devastating injuries a basketball player can face, but much like ACL injuries in the NFL, they can now be overcome with modern surgical and rehab techniques. People bring up Kobe in reference to KD, but it's apples to oranges.

1. Kobe was 5 years older than KD and had significantly more mileage on his body(54,000 career minutes to 36,000 for KD)

2. Kobe didn't only tear his achilles. In his 6th game back after the achilles injury, Kobe broke his tibia which kept him out that entire season too. Also the tibia injury was actually harder to come back from than the achilles as Kobe's body responded negatively to the therapy and a 6-week injury ballooned into an 8 month rehabillitation process. And then 35 games into his comeback after the tibia fracture, he suffered another season ending injury after tearing his rotator cuff. Those were how Kobe's age 34, 35, and 36 seasons ended.

3. Despite Kobe's injury occuring just 6 years ago, the surgical method used to repair Kobe's achilles is now considered antiquated as there have been major advancements in the field in the past 3-4 years.

4. Kobe tore his achilles in April 2013, yet he was back on the court before Christmas that same calendar year. We've seen Terrell Suggs and DeMaryius Thomas return in just over 6 months from an achilles tear and play at the same level they were prior to the injury. Given his younger age and access to more advanced surgical/therapeutic techniques, Durant should be back after the all star break next season.

Another player I've seen referenced has been Demarcus Cousins, but what people fail to realize is that Cousins numbers this year were right in line with his career averages on a per minute basis. His role was certainly reduced after becoming a 4th or 5th option as opposed to being the 1st(or 2nd in NO)throughgout his entire career, but Cousins level of play was pretty much the same as from before.

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 Cousins Per 100 Career vs 2018-19                                                         
Season Age  Tm    Lg  TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PTS  TS%  ORtg DRtg  PER WSp48 VORP(@ 82 games and 30 MPG)
Career            NBA 16.9 5.1 2.2 1.9 5.5 33.1 .538 103  103  22.4 .117 3.04     
2017-18 27    NO  NBA 17.0 7.1 2.2 2.1 6.7 33.3 .583 104  102  22.6 .130 4.67   
2018-19 28    GSW NBA 15.2 6.6 2.5 2.7 4.4 30.1 .562 109  102  21.4 .151 3.51   


His BPM and on/off statistics showed significant drop-offs, but context must be considered. i.e. According to BPM, this year was KD, Klay, Steph and Draymond's worst season since early in their careers, yet all 4 of them are in their prime.
DoItALL9
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#202 » by DoItALL9 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:40 pm

lolathon234 wrote:Durant will likely come back at 90% of his former self at worst, at best there will be no drop-off. Achilles injuries are undoubtedly one of the more devastating injuries a basketball player can face, but much like ACL injuries in the NFL, they can now be overcome with modern surgical and rehab techniques. People bring up Kobe in reference to KD, but it's apples to oranges.

1. Kobe was 5 years older than KD and had significantly more mileage on his body(54,000 career minutes to 36,000 for KD)

2. Kobe didn't only tear his achilles. In his 6th game back after the achilles injury, Kobe broke his tibia which kept him out that entire season too. Also the tibia injury was actually harder to come back from than the achilles as Kobe's body responded negatively to the therapy and a 6-week injury ballooned into an 8 month rehabillitation process. And then 35 games into his comeback after the tibia fracture, he suffered another season ending injury after tearing his rotator cuff. Those were how Kobe's age 34, 35, and 36 seasons ended.

3. Despite Kobe's injury occuring just 6 years ago, the surgical method used to repair Kobe's achilles is now considered antiquated as there have been major advancements in the field in the past 3-4 years.

4. Kobe tore his achilles in April 2013, yet he was back on the court before Christmas that same calendar year. We've seen Terrell Suggs and DeMaryius Thomas return in just over 6 months from an achilles tear and play at the same level they were prior to the injury. Given his younger age and access to more advanced surgical/therapeutic techniques, Durant should be back after the all star break next season.

Another player I've seen referenced has been Demarcus Cousins, but what people fail to realize is that Cousins numbers this year were right in line with his career averages on a per minute basis. His role was certainly reduced after becoming a 4th or 5th option as opposed to being the 1st(or 2nd in NO)throughgout his entire career, but Cousins level of play was pretty much the same as from before.

Code: Select all

 Cousins Per 100 Career vs 2018-19                                                         
Season Age  Tm    Lg  TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PTS  TS%  ORtg DRtg  PER WSp48 VORP(@ 82 games and 30 MPG)
Career            NBA 16.9 5.1 2.2 1.9 5.5 33.1 .538 103  103  22.4 .117 3.04     
2017-18 27    NO  NBA 17.0 7.1 2.2 2.1 6.7 33.3 .583 104  102  22.6 .130 4.67   
2018-19 28    GSW NBA 15.2 6.6 2.5 2.7 4.4 30.1 .562 109  102  21.4 .151 3.51   


His BPM and on/off statistics showed significant drop-offs, but context must be considered. i.e. According to BPM, this year was KD, Klay, Steph and Draymond's worst season since early in their careers, yet all 4 of them are in their prime.
I looked at Rudy Gay's per 36 and they seemed to be consistent with what you said above but do you believe KD can comeback as before and play over 30 minutes a night in the future?

How has Achilles tendon repair specifically changed in recent years?

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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#203 » by GSWarriors22 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:51 pm

superunknown wrote:what happened to all the "veterans willing to take a paycut to have a chance to win a title" ?
this doesn't work anymore nowadays?
for years, there've been players doing this for several contenders. out of a sudden nobody is willing to leave some money on the table to play for a contender like the warriors?


My thoughts exactly. There has to be a hand full of players willing to sign for the minimum if it means paying for a 'chip.
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#204 » by wco81 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:07 pm

GSWarriors22 wrote:
superunknown wrote:what happened to all the "veterans willing to take a paycut to have a chance to win a title" ?
this doesn't work anymore nowadays?
for years, there've been players doing this for several contenders. out of a sudden nobody is willing to leave some money on the table to play for a contender like the warriors?


My thoughts exactly. There has to be a hand full of players willing to sign for the minimum if it means paying for a 'chip.


Agents are not going to tell their clients to take minimum contracts to win rings when they can get higher offers. They will tell them they could always ring chase when they’re over 30.

Only way you’re going to get 25 year olds on minimum deals is if they’re marginal players, just good enough to make rosters maybe.

Or if they’ve disappointed and can’t get anything better than min prove it deals, like Noel or Stauskas last year, who were both high lotto picks.
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#205 » by lolathon234 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:48 pm

DoItALL9 wrote:[I looked at Rudy Gay's per 36 and they seemed to be consistent with what you said above but do you believe KD can comeback as before and play over 30 minutes a night in the future?

How has Achilles tendon repair specifically changed in recent years?

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I would assume he will play sub 30 MPG for his first few months back, then gradually increase his playing time up to 34-35 MPG like before. Gay's drop in minutes have more to do with team role IMO and the fact that he never had much of a positive impact on teams as a primary scorer during his peak years to begin with. However the Spurs have managed to turn him into a net+ by limiting his role.

It's similar to what happened with Kevin Love as he moved from being a 1st option in Minnesota to the 3rd option in Cleveland.

Kobe, for instance, had virtually no minute restriction after his comeback only 8 months after rupturing his achilles and he was 5 years older than KD. Unfortunately he fractured his tibia in his 6th game back, but that's moot as the injuries weren't related.

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Date             Age         Opp    MP   FG  FGA  FG%   3P  3PA   3P%   TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TOV   PF  PTS
2013-12-14    35-113 CHA  W (+3) 32:14    8   15 .533    2    5  .400    7    8    0    0    7    1   21
2013-12-16    35-115 ATL L (-14) 32:10    4   14 .286    0    5  .000    3    6    2    0    5    1    8 
2013-12-17    35-116 MEM  W (+4) 32:38    9   18 .500    1    1 1.000    5    4    1    1    4    1   21



As for the surgical procedure advancements, you can read about them https://www.intechopen.com/books/update-in-management-of-foot-and-ankle-disorders/achilles-tendon-and-athletes. Essentially there have been drastic changes in virtually every way the injury is treated, which has resulted in much faster rates of recovery and subsequent return to sport(median time interval being 4.9 months for elite athletes to return to competition) in addition to near if not total recovery of functionality seen prior to the injury. Terrell Suggs, Jason Peters, DeMaryius Thomas, Zack Britton, Erik Karllson and many others have shown absolutely no drop off after tearing their achilles, with Thomas and Peters arguably being even better after their injuries.
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#206 » by cladden » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:55 pm

For whatever reason I was lurking on the Knicks board and saw this quote from the general board:

some knicks dude wrote:An interesting take from the GB:

With all of the speculation into what effect the injury will have on Durant longterm, has anyone realized that Durant tore his RIGHT achilles tendon? He's right handed, and like most right handed basketball players, he is a LEFT footed jumper. Kobe, Brand, Rudy Gay, Cousins, Wesley Matthews, Billups, and Memet Okur, all right handed shooters and left footed leapers, tore the achilles tendon on their LEFT leg.

Dominique Wilkins and Jonas Jerebko are the 2 lone examples of NBA players that ruptured their achilles tendons and had no decline in their level of play. As a matter off act, both players actually had better seasons immediately upon returning than they had in the seasons where they suffered the injury. Wilkins and Jerebko, both right handed shooters and left foot leapers, tore the achilles tendon on their RIGHT, NON-DOMINANT leg.
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#207 » by wco81 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:02 pm

Actually Rudy Gays efficiency is the same as before injury but his minutes and shot attempts are down, probably because of reduced role on the Spurs compared to when he was on the Kings.

Rudy is a UFA who will turn 33 in August, coming off a 50.4/40.2/81.6 season on 26.7 MPG and 13.7 PPG.

It'll be interesting to see what kind of offers he gets.
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#208 » by DAWill1128 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:07 pm

Coxy wrote:Steph/Livingston/Cook
Klay/Vince Carter
Ariza/Iguodala/McKinnie
Green/Looney/Bell
Cousins/Robin Lopez/Jones

+ Draft Pick.


I wouldn't mind this, Boogie healthy is such a handful. If Cousins was healthy I think we would run a freight train through this Toronto team, especially with a decent wing filler for KD.
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#209 » by cladden » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:07 pm

Rudy at some point learned to play within himself. Exactly the way baby jesus never did.
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#210 » by HiRez » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:18 pm

One thing I read (but can't confirm) is that if KD stays but can't play next year, the Warriors could be eligible for an injured player exception of ~$9M (an NBA doctor would make this decision but supposedly they are fairly generous with this if its somewhat possible the player can't play). That would be a massive help considering their constraints.
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#211 » by xdrta+ » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:07 pm

HiRez wrote:One thing I read (but can't confirm) is that if KD stays but can't play next year, the Warriors could be eligible for an injured player exception of ~$9M (an NBA doctor would make this decision but supposedly they are fairly generous with this if its somewhat possible the player can't play). That would be a massive help considering their constraints.


I don't know about their generosity, but if they apply for a Disabled Player Exception, a fitness to play panel has to certify that, in their opinion, he would be unable to play before June 15. That would enable the W's to sign a FA to a 1 year contract for up to the non-tax MLE (about $9.7M). Interestingly, if he comes back early, it wouldn't affect the player they sign.
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#212 » by HiRez » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:11 pm

xdrta+ wrote:
HiRez wrote:One thing I read (but can't confirm) is that if KD stays but can't play next year, the Warriors could be eligible for an injured player exception of ~$9M (an NBA doctor would make this decision but supposedly they are fairly generous with this if its somewhat possible the player can't play). That would be a massive help considering their constraints.


I don't know about their generosity, but if they apply for a Disabled Player Exception, a fitness to play panel has to certify that, in their opinion, he would be unable to play before June 15. That would enable the W's to sign a FA to a 1 year contract for up to the non-tax MLE (about $9.7M). Interestingly, if he comes back early, it wouldn't affect the player they sign.

Thanks xdrta+, do you know if that amount has to be used all on 1 player, or can it be split out to multiple players?
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Re: Assuming Durant leaves...build next years team. 

Post#213 » by xdrta+ » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:19 pm

HiRez wrote:
xdrta+ wrote:
HiRez wrote:One thing I read (but can't confirm) is that if KD stays but can't play next year, the Warriors could be eligible for an injured player exception of ~$9M (an NBA doctor would make this decision but supposedly they are fairly generous with this if its somewhat possible the player can't play). That would be a massive help considering their constraints.


I don't know about their generosity, but if they apply for a Disabled Player Exception, a fitness to play panel has to certify that, in their opinion, he would be unable to play before June 15. That would enable the W's to sign a FA to a 1 year contract for up to the non-tax MLE (about $9.7M). Interestingly, if he comes back early, it wouldn't affect the player they sign.

Thanks xdrta+, do you know if that amount has to be used all on 1 player, or can it be split out to multiple players?


One player only. Besides FA, they could trade for a player in the last year of his contract only, or claim a player on waivers in his last contract year, with the same salary restriction. The exception must be applied for between Jul 1 and Jan 15, no later. If it's denied, they have to wait 90 days before applying again.

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