Surprises and Disappointments

chef_martin · Post #1 » by **chef_martin** » Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:44 am

I notice that every single year on the Warriors and probably every single other team, there is always at least one player who massively underachieves and another who massively overachieves. On the Warriors, this usually happens with a player who is still on their rookie contract. We can go back the last five years and see this trend. (Overachievers in bold)

2019: Jacob Evans, Jordan Bell, Alfonzo McKinnie
2018: Omri Casspi, Patrick McCaw, Kevon Looney, Jordan Bell
2017: Kevon Looney, Patrick McCaw, JaVale McGee
2016: Jason Thompson, Brandon Rush
2015: Festus Ezeli, David Lee, Draymond Green

2016 was a bit of an anomaly since we didn't have many players on rookie contracts. Anyway, my point is that there is an almost supernatural over-correction happening with some of these players. Both Jordan Bell and Patrick McCaw looked like rotational mainstays for 5+ years after their rookie season. However, they never showed any signs of progress in their second year and subsequently left the team. Whereas the transformation from Kevon "Bonafide Scrub" Looney to Kevon "Foundational Piece" Looney was something that no one saw coming. I call this phenomenon the ol' Warriors Switcharoo. Now it doesn't work with every player like Damian Jones, but I think that's because of his frighteningly low basketball IQ.

For the 2020 season, I expect McKinnie to disappoint (low BBIQ), but also for Jacob Evans to surprise (high BBIQ). I think that Eric Paschall might surprise in his rookie season, but then disappoint in his 2nd year and that Jordan Poole is likely to do just the opposite. Maybe even Omari Spellman gets in on the action and surprises this year after a disastrous rookie season. As far as Alen Smailagic goes, it might take 3 or 4 years for the Ol' Warriors Switcheroo to impact him.

Anyway, who do you guys think is gonna surprise or disappoint this year?

CS707 · Post #2 » by **CS707** » Sun Sep 29, 2019 4:05 pm

I’ll go with GRIII as the surprise and Evans as the disappointment. I think GRIII has enough experience and athleticism to slide into a role where he’s not asked to do too much outside of be a decent 3&D guy. Evans, I just don’t see it with him. It’s pretty telling when a guy is drafted specifically because he played a position of need and still has to change his position to get on the court. He does seem like a guy Kerr will overplay at first though.

Coxy · Post #3 » by **Coxy** » Sun Sep 29, 2019 9:38 pm

Smiley to over achieve, Spellman to under achieve.

If Evans did anything other than suck ass, I’d be surprised. I expect nothing from him.

azwfan · Post #4 » by **azwfan** » Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:45 pm

Guess it depends on expectations.

To casual fans, I think Looney may be a surprise. With more minutes and improved outside shot, he could put up more impressive numbers. Not sure more hardcore Warriors fans would be very surprised with that unless there was a huge jump in productivity.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think WCS may be a disappointment (at least to me).

Mylie10 · Post #5 » by **Mylie10** » Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:45 pm

Coxy wrote:Smiley to over achieve, Spellman to under achieve.

If Evans did anything other than suck ass, I’d be surprised. I expect nothing from him.

Take this to the bank Coxstar....if Spellmans weight is in order, you are going to love him....hands down, stamp the guarantee on it.

He's extremely skilled for a big man. He's just got to get himself in a professional approach to the game. Which I believe he is on that track now.

If he gets his body right, he's going to make Mo Speights look like a G Leaguer

Samurai · Post #6 » by **Samurai** » Sun Sep 29, 2019 11:43 pm

gst8 wrote:I’ll go with GRIII as the surprise and Evans as the disappointment. I think GRIII has enough experience and athleticism to slide into a role where he’s not asked to do too much outside of be a decent 3&D guy. Evans, I just don’t see it with him. It’s pretty telling when a guy is drafted specifically because he played a position of need and still has to change his position to get on the court. He does seem like a guy Kerr will overplay at first though.

I think Evans has as much of a chance to be a positive surprise as he does as a disappointment. I mean, the bar some have for him is so low that if he plays poorly but doesn't completely suck, then he will be considered as "OK". With a bar that low, it actually becomes difficult to be a disappointment.

I would pick Spellman as my surprise and WCS as the disappointment. If Spellman is in shape, I think he will do well so just being in shape could help him to nail the "surprise" award. I think WCS will be OK, but the bar is higher for him so just being "OK" makes him a disappointment.

Mylie10 · Post #7 » by **Mylie10** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:09 am

In regards to Willie.....I will always factor in his contract before I start getting disappointed. We got this guy for next to nothing, so please add some context to your criticism.

Money_ · Post #8 » by **Money_** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:29 am

WCS potential wise right now, sits somewhere above Javale and below a healthy Boogie. He'll bring that energy, alley ooops off the pick and roll, etc. and Looney will bring that stability, love to see him take a leap with his mid range shot.
I don't see Mckinney regressing, he has a real opportunity for minutes and I still see him as hungry for more.
If he doesn't progress that will be very disappointing as he's had nothing but opportunity to contribute.
GR could really help this team as a reliable 3 and D off the bench. Poole is going to get a chance to prove his worth, he's got the cahones to take some tough shots, he'll have to prove he's willing to work on his entire game though.

All of these guys have the chance of a lifetime to play with Steph Curry, Klay and Dray...
They have one of the better coaching staffs in the league. I expect all of them to play to their max potential
HA! We'll see how that works out.

DAWill1128 · Post #9 » by **DAWill1128** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:36 am

I think Spellman will surprise because the guy can rebound and shoot, look how many top of the key jumpers Speights and West got.

Agree Evans will struggle, think he is more of a wing defender than a point guard. He doesn't have that point guard feel.

I think Burks will have a bigger role than expected since he will get Livingstons playing time.

Mylie10 · Post #10 » by **Mylie10** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:28 am

I don't think Poole will be a disappointment, but I also don't think he's going to be a mainstay on the team right away. I think he's going to need alot of Santa Cruz playing time in order to find a consistent game.

I would love to be surprised, but he's got so much to learn in a very short time and Kerr is going to first lean on guys who have been here, Russell because of stature, and probably lean to Burks and Robinson to possibly fill a need in front of the minutes Poole would get.

Coxy · Post #11 » by **Coxy** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:39 am

Mylie10 wrote:
Coxy wrote:Smiley to over achieve, Spellman to under achieve.

If Evans did anything other than suck ass, I’d be surprised. I expect nothing from him.

Take this to the bank Coxstar....if Spellmans weight is in order, you are going to love him....hands down, stamp the guarantee on it.

He's extremely skilled for a big man. He's just got to get himself in a professional approach to the game. Which I believe he is on that track now.

If he gets his body right, he's going to make Mo Speights look like a G Leaguer

Looking forward to eating my words if that is the case.

Mylie10 · Post #12 » by **Mylie10** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:39 am

Coxy wrote:
Mylie10 wrote:
Coxy wrote:Smiley to over achieve, Spellman to under achieve.

If Evans did anything other than suck ass, I’d be surprised. I expect nothing from him.

Take this to the bank Coxstar....if Spellmans weight is in order, you are going to love him....hands down, stamp the guarantee on it.

He's extremely skilled for a big man. He's just got to get himself in a professional approach to the game. Which I believe he is on that track now.

If he gets his body right, he's going to make Mo Speights look like a G Leaguer

Looking forward to eating my words if that is the case.

If you don't eat them Omari will.... he'll be hungry.

Coxy · Post #13 » by **Coxy** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:55 am

Mylie10 wrote:
Coxy wrote:
Mylie10 wrote:
Take this to the bank Coxstar....if Spellmans weight is in order, you are going to love him....hands down, stamp the guarantee on it.

He's extremely skilled for a big man. He's just got to get himself in a professional approach to the game. Which I believe he is on that track now.

If he gets his body right, he's going to make Mo Speights look like a G Leaguer

Looking forward to eating my words if that is the case.

If you don't eat them Omari will.... he'll be hungry.

That’s the problem, keeping him away from the buffet.