mos_def wrote: ChuckDurn wrote:
wco81 wrote:I have to believe the Warriors would prefer #4 or #5 in 2021 than some uncertain pick in 2022.
Good chance Wolves are better next season.
Plus, it's not like the lottery odds get better in 2022. If the Wolves have the worst record this year, there's a 60% chance we'll end up with the 4th or 5th pick, in what looks to be a 5-player draft. And if the Wolves have the worst record again next year (which, IMO, seems really unlikely to happen), we'd still have a 60% chance of getting the 4th or 5th pick, in what looks to be a weaker draft. The odds of ending up with a better pick / prospect in 2022 than we'd get in the 2021 draft is pretty low.
True, but what happe s if they are better and actually win the lottery (top 3)
It could happen, but seems pretty unlikely to me. The maximum likelihood that the pick will be in the top-3 next year is just 40%. If the Wolves improve to even have the 5th-worst record, that percentage is down to below 30% - and you start running into a 60% likelihood that the pick ends up at #6 or worse.
It really does become a little bit of Russian roulette. I’ll take the #4 or #5 this year over a low chance of getting somebody who might be better than them - but a high chance of getting somebody worse than them. (After all, besides Holmgren, is there anybody in 2022 who projects higher than any of Cunningham, Mobley, Suggs, Green, or Kuminga?)