WISEMAN EXPECTATIONS: Year 1

and1GS · Post #1901 » by **and1GS** » Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:10 pm

Yeh Wiseman statistically was not good overall. However, I saw him turning a corner before he went down the last time and try to stay realistic about how injuries (2 or 3?), no training camp and COVID related benchings (3x I believe?) can affect a development timeline. I'm optimistic on his long term potential and expecting next-to-nothing from him this year. Both those things can be true. We're in win now mode now and if that means shipping him or reducing his role to 15 mpg, so be it.

That said, I always think it's silly to throw a rookie in the trash after half an injury riddled season. I've seen folks around here do it with Killian Hayes as well and the kid has played 26 games in a new country. Sometimes talent takes time to develop. If you think we don't have that time, fine, but that doesn't mean the player sucks forever. And if you do think they suck forever, you probably need to rehab their value before trading them.

Scoots1994 · Post #1902 » by **Scoots1994** » Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:55 pm

cpower wrote:
shazam_guy wrote:Nothing here lately about Wiseman, but I'll pretend his name's in the title of the thread.

Nice ESPN article today about Andre Ayton and his importance to the Suns, in the wake of the game-winning oop vs. Clips.

I wonder how many Phoenix fans wanted him gone after he didn't set the league on fire his first couple of years? I wonder if there's anything to be learned there?

Oh, wait, I forgot. Steph's window is almost closed, supposedly.

to be honest, Andre Ayton was an impressive player even in year 1. Wiseman will be lucky to be as good as rookie Ayton in 3 years.

Let's compare their 19 year old NBA seasons ... Wiseman did MUCH better as a 19 year old in the NBA than Ayton did

and1GS · Post #1903 » by **and1GS** » Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:41 pm

Is that actually true though? Ayton had 16/10 with a block and steal a game. If you're into advanced stats, James' OBPM, DBPM, BPM, VORP, TS% and TRB% were all significantly worse than Ayton. Only exception being DBPM where he was .3 worse.

Old_Blue · Post #1904 » by **Old_Blue** » Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:56 pm

Scoots1994 wrote:Let's compare their 19 year old NBA seasons ... Wiseman did MUCH better as a 19 year old in the NBA than Ayton did

Let's compare their 19 year old NBA seasons ... Jahlil Okafor did MUCH better as a 19 year old in the NBA than Wiseman did. :banghead:

Post #1905 » by **FNQ** » Thu Jun 24, 2021 1:46 am

Old_Blue wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:Let's compare their 19 year old NBA seasons ... Wiseman did MUCH better as a 19 year old in the NBA than Ayton did

Let's compare their 19 year old NBA seasons ... Jahlil Okafor did MUCH better as a 19 year old in the NBA than Wiseman did.

and1GS wrote:Is that actually true though? Ayton had 16/10 with a block and steal a game. If you're into advanced stats, James' OBPM, DBPM, BPM, VORP, TS% and TRB% were all significantly worse than Ayton. Only exception being DBPM where he was .3 worse.

Ayton was in college at 19..

But I will say there's a capable enough argument that Ayton still had a better 19 year old NBA seasons than Wiseman... net -9 and BPM -5.6 is pretty damn rough

Smiley played 84 minutes and managed to log a -5.4 BPM, for comparison's sake

Wiseman played 836 minutes. Here is the list of players with a lower BPM than him who played over 500 min in the NBA last year, bolding the ones that played more minutes:

Gabe Vincent (yes thats a NBA player, I looked it up too)
Avery Bradley
That Poku guy from OKC
Justise Winslow
Chasson Randle - played 1 more minute
Wes Iwundu
Sekou DetroitGuy
Rodney Hood
Killian Hayes

Nowhere to go but up really

EvanZ · Post #1906 » by **EvanZ** » Thu Jun 24, 2021 1:50 am

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Post #1907 » by **FNQ** » Thu Jun 24, 2021 1:50 am

and1GS wrote:Yeh Wiseman statistically was not good overall. However, I saw him turning a corner before he went down the last time and try to stay realistic about how injuries (2 or 3?), no training camp and COVID related benchings (3x I believe?) can affect a development timeline. I'm optimistic on his long term potential and expecting next-to-nothing from him this year. Both those things can be true. We're in win now mode now and if that means shipping him or reducing his role to 15 mpg, so be it.

That said, I always think it's silly to throw a rookie in the trash after half an injury riddled season. I've seen folks around here do it with Killian Hayes as well and the kid has played 26 games in a new country. Sometimes talent takes time to develop. If you think we don't have that time, fine, but that doesn't mean the player sucks forever. And if you do think they suck forever, you probably need to rehab their value before trading them.

We threw Poole in the trash in a much more dismissive way too.. way too early to determine his career trajectory. We just know he's starting from the bottom, only because there's nothing below that

Regardless of whether or not you think it was a poor drafting decision (lol it was), he's ours now.. he should get better by default. But he's not trash and he's also not an uber prospect. I'd happily move him for a NBA starter caliber player that fit our team well.

GSWFan1994 · Post #1908 » by **GSWFan1994** » Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:29 am

EvanZ wrote:

Read on Twitter
?s=20

Thanks for the insight!

I'll get back to you after I finish setting up my account.

Scoots1994 · Post #1909 » by **Scoots1994** » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:06 pm

and1GS wrote:Is that actually true though? Ayton had 16/10 with a block and steal a game. If you're into advanced stats, James' OBPM, DBPM, BPM, VORP, TS% and TRB% were all significantly worse than Ayton. Only exception being DBPM where he was .3 worse.

When they were in the NBA as teenagers?

Scoots1994 · Post #1910 » by **Scoots1994** » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:07 pm

Old_Blue wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:Let's compare their 19 year old NBA seasons ... Wiseman did MUCH better as a 19 year old in the NBA than Ayton did

Let's compare their 19 year old NBA seasons ... Jahlil Okafor did MUCH better as a 19 year old in the NBA than Wiseman did.

Okafor was 20 for his rookie year.

shazam_guy · Post #1911 » by **shazam_guy** » Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:31 pm

Hassan Whiteside didn't even stay in the league after his first seasons, yet he became a very important contributor to some good teams later on, with far fewer skills than Wiseman. This argument is old. One side (mine) is, "Leave the kid alone. We knew he was raw. Let's see what he grows into." The other side is, "James Wiseman, Bob Myers, and Steve Kerr are history's greatest villains. The Wiseman pick is going to destroy the Warriors. Let's dump him now and then Joel Embiid will want to come play for us." (Okay, slight exaggeration, but it doesn't feel all that exaggerated.)

And you're going to compare Wiseman to Jahlil Okafor? Wiseman has size and length and all kinds of things that Okafor never had. Wiseman, at the very least, has the capacity to be a shot-changer and rim-protector for years. Not to mention that when you look at the actual first season stats, it's not even true that Okafor had a "much better" first season. JO shot .167 (!) on threes -- Wiseman was twice as accurate -- and also played a lot more, before they realized he was crap. So when you go to the per-minute or per-36 statistics, Wiseman far out-rebounded Okafor, had a slightly higher block percentage, and was only a fraction less productive in points scored per minute. Meanwhile, JW was trying to learn a game he didn't get a chance to learn at college, where Okafor had just had a full year of Coach K., plus -- I assume, don't remember -- an NCAA tourney run.

In fact, I have trouble seeing how you'd say Okafor was -better- than Wiseman his first year, period, let alone "MUCH better".

Big J · Post #1912 » by **Big J** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:50 pm

Has anyone heard anything about how his recovery is going, and what kind of work he’s putting in? It’s been way too quiet on that front.

Mylie10 · Post #1913 » by **Mylie10** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:38 pm

Big J wrote:Has anyone heard anything about how his recovery is going, and what kind of work he’s putting in? It’s been way too quiet on that front.

Other than the customary, James is working hard, stuff.

I did hear Ron Adam’s say that James is working hard on his upper body and he’s stronger already. Don’t exactly know how legit that is. But Ron Adam’s isn’t a guy to just say stuff.

But last offseason we saw pictures of Wiggins that made him look stronger. Opening night he looked the same lol

I’m no trainer, but would love to know what they could do strength wise on his lower body while rehabbing that knee. I would think not much other than normal recovery exercises. Can’t really go big time strengthening lower body I’d think.

Big J · Post #1914 » by **Big J** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:47 pm

Mylie10 wrote:
Big J wrote:Has anyone heard anything about how his recovery is going, and what kind of work he’s putting in? It’s been way too quiet on that front.

Other than the customary, James is working hard, stuff.

I did hear Ron Adam’s say that James is working hard on his upper body and he’s stronger already. Don’t exactly know how legit that is. But Ron Adam’s isn’t a guy to just say stuff.

But last offseason we saw pictures of Wiggins that made him look stronger. Opening night he looked the same lol

I’m no trainer, but would love to know what they could do strength wise on his lower body while rehabbing that knee. I would think not much other than normal recovery exercises. Can’t really go big time strengthening lower body I’d think.

Wiseman needs to turn his body into a 7’1 Dwight. I think that would help his confidence and some of the rebounding issues.

Mylie10 · Post #1915 » by **Mylie10** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:20 pm

I think some of the rebounding issues are overblown. I’m pretty confident that once he’s comfortable in the league rebounding is super easy for him.

My biggest issue with him right now is the Nelli death nail….if you didn’t know where to be on the floor and what your responsibilities are while you’re out there, you couldn’t play. Nellie would never play guys who didn’t earn their spot on the floor.

whatisacenter · Post #1916 » by **whatisacenter** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:28 pm

Mylie10 wrote:I think some of the rebounding issues are overblown. I’m pretty confident that once he’s comfortable in the league rebounding is super easy for him.

My biggest issue with him right now is the Nelli death nail….if you didn’t know where to be on the floor and what your responsibilities are while you’re out there, you couldn’t play. Nellie would never play guys who didn’t earn their spot on the floor.

the beginning of the season was rough not only for Wiseman but the Warriors in general. Only Curry and Draymond had played together in the Dubs system and they were trying to fit in Wiggins, Oubre and a 19yo rookie who had no training camp. Wiggins by the end of the season looked like he had figured it out and I think Wiseman before his knee injury was getting it too. Only time will tell how he works out and I can't wait to see him on the floor again.

Post #1917 » by **FNQ** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:19 am

Mylie10 wrote:I think some of the rebounding issues are overblown. I’m pretty confident that once he’s comfortable in the league rebounding is super easy for him.

My biggest issue with him right now is the Nelli death nail….if you didn’t know where to be on the floor and what your responsibilities are while you’re out there, you couldn’t play. Nellie would never play guys who didn’t earn their spot on the floor.

I am really worried about the rebounding, because he played like he's used to being bigger than everyone. He conceded position way too much, which really affected team rebounding when he was on the court. He has insane rebounding potential, but like defense, he's got a ton to learn, and unfortunately hasnt had consistent healthy time to learn it. Based on how short his season was last year, I'm considering that his fresh or soph year in college and we're getting a (projected) 3rd rookie. Minimal expectations, just get better. Maybe set the goal of unseating Looney. But the bare minimum for me is to improve and not fall to 3rd string.

azwfan · Post #1918 » by **azwfan** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:34 am

FNQ wrote:
Mylie10 wrote:I think some of the rebounding issues are overblown. I’m pretty confident that once he’s comfortable in the league rebounding is super easy for him.

My biggest issue with him right now is the Nelli death nail….if you didn’t know where to be on the floor and what your responsibilities are while you’re out there, you couldn’t play. Nellie would never play guys who didn’t earn their spot on the floor.

I am really worried about the rebounding, because he played like he's used to being bigger than everyone. He conceded position way too much, which really affected team rebounding when he was on the court. He has insane rebounding potential, but like defense, he's got a ton to learn, and unfortunately hasnt had consistent healthy time to learn it. Based on how short his season was last year, I'm considering that his fresh or soph year in college and we're getting a (projected) 3rd rookie. Minimal expectations, just get better. Maybe set the goal of unseating Looney. But the bare minimum for me is to improve and not fall to 3rd string.

Agreed.

The main concern I have with his rebounding is that it really stood out when he fought for position/the ball... the number of times I saw him fight/compete can be counted on 1 finger. I remember because I was really excited about his potential at that moment.

Onus · Post #1919 » by **Onus** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 2:52 am

Read on Twitter

?s=20

At least it seems like they see the light after seeing Ayton on how Wiseman should be used. Can only hope they have him focus on setting screens and rolling and being a finisher, rebound and play defense. No more post ups and shooting whenever the hell he feels like it.

mos_def · Post #1920 » by **mos_def** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:19 am

Onus wrote:

Read on Twitter
?s=20

At least it seems like they see the light after seeing Ayton on how Wiseman should be used. Can only hope they have him focus on setting screens and rolling and being a finisher, rebound and play defense. No more post ups and shooting whenever the hell he feels like it.

There's nothing wrong with postups but the bare minimum he should be very good at what you listed