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Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre"

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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#41 » by xdrta+ » Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:02 pm

shazam_guy wrote:I said people were going to start coming around on Oubre by about this point. But since I don't save my old takes to drag out and wave in people's faces, you'll just have to take my word for it.

People should be whispering in his ear, "You can be 6th Man of the Year next year on a really good team (ours) or a starter on a mediocre team and get blamed for the mediocrity."


They can say that, but I think it will come down to the money. He's never had a big payday, so if someone waves a 3yr/$50 or $60M offer in front of him, I don't know why he'd turn it down. I doubt the Warriors want to go that high.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#42 » by floppymoose » Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:49 pm

Yeah this is likely his only year with us. So it's all going to come down to the playoffs for him. I think he will help us there. But ultimately that is how I will judge his Warriors time, however it works out.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#43 » by lars_rosenberg » Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:02 pm

You don't spend big money on a bench player who doesn't fit with the starters.
If he's ok with what the Warriors can afford, then fine, otherwise I'm not going to regret his departure. He's been a net negative for the team this season and a few decent games can't cancel that.
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Re: Bench 

Post#44 » by GQ Hot Dog » Sun Apr 25, 2021 2:46 am

lars_rosenberg wrote:You don't spend big money on a bench player who doesn't fit with the starters.
If he's ok with what the Warriors can afford, then fine, otherwise I'm not going to regret his departure. He's been a net negative for the team this season and a few decent games can't cancel that.


I don't think he's been a net negative but for argument's sake let's say he has. If a few (much better than) decent games doesn't cancel that, how many excellent games would cancel? How about if he averages 20+ points throughout the rest of the regular season and playoffs?
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#45 » by shazam_guy » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:04 am

He's been a good deal more than a net negative, I think, but you'll never convince those who don't think so, at least not those who made their minds up early.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#46 » by Sleepy51 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:14 pm

shazam_guy wrote:He's been a good deal more than a net negative, I think, but you'll never convince those who don't think so, at least not those who made their minds up early.


I would actually be interested in seeing the receipts to back up this statement?
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#47 » by watch1958 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:23 pm

The Warriors want to be a team that makes a deep playoff run next year.

So one thing that would make him attractive to re-sign is if he can be a reliably good contributor to a deep playoff run this year. Especially if he does it as a big minute bench guy.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#48 » by shazam_guy » Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:56 pm

Sleepy51 wrote:
shazam_guy wrote:He's been a good deal more than a net negative, I think, but you'll never convince those who don't think so, at least not those who made their minds up early.


I would actually be interested in seeing the receipts to back up this statement?


I'm not sure what you mean by "receipts" -- likely stats, I'm guessing. But part of what I'm saying is that, as others have pointed out, his teammates really seem to like him and enjoy playing with him. There are no receipts for that.

Plus, unlike many other folks on this board, I said "I think", which should suggest that I'm not claiming absolute truth, just my opinion based on what I've seen and read.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#49 » by Sleepy51 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:56 pm

shazam_guy wrote: based on what I've seen and read.


So let's start there. What have you read that you are basing your opinion "that he has been a good deal better than negative" on?
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#50 » by Sam Lowry Jr » Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:06 pm

I'm not sure how it's improved over the course of the season, and particularly with the second teams with Poole, but it seems like Oubre was a net negative with and without Curry, not as bad as Wiseman however. It seems optimal to play Bazemore with Steph, which explains Kerr's recent lineup tinkering.

FWIW. (stats based on http://pbpstats.com)

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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#51 » by shazam_guy » Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:17 am

I've heard several players go out of their way to say good things about Oubre as a teammate. The other players' body language has always looked good to me around him. And he seems to be a much better fit coming off the bench, for any number of reasons. I say he's a net positive also because of his energy and chaos factor on defense -- speed and length -- and the same around the basket on offense. And after a horrible start, he's up to 32 percent on threes, so he's been making those at an acceptable clip for some time.

I didn't claim science anyway, just said that was what I thought (based on watching hundreds upon hundreds of Warrior games over the years and watching players talk about other players as well as playing with them) so I'm not quite sure why I'm supposed to spend a lot of time defending it. Feel free to disagree.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#52 » by Sleepy51 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:15 pm

shazam_guy wrote:I've heard several players go out of their way to say good things about Oubre as a teammate. The other players' body language has always looked good to me around him. And he seems to be a much better fit coming off the bench, for any number of reasons. I say he's a net positive also because of his energy and chaos factor on defense -- speed and length -- and the same around the basket on offense. And after a horrible start, he's up to 32 percent on threes, so he's been making those at an acceptable clip for some time.

I didn't claim science anyway, just said that was what I thought (based on watching hundreds upon hundreds of Warrior games over the years and watching players talk about other players as well as playing with them) so I'm not quite sure why I'm supposed to spend a lot of time defending it. Feel free to disagree.


That’s a pretty passive aggressive approach to a discussion forum. I mean if you just want a place to say your thing and have no one interact with your statements I think Wordpress still exists.

For the record, I didn’t even challenge your assumption, I just asked for some support for it, if not stats, then perhaps quotes, links, podcasts, etc from people who do know the stats.

If his additive benefit is entirely off court stuff, if his best feature is that he’s secretly a locker room/morale/energy booster guy irrespective of his presence or absence from the court then I guess that kind of nebulous effect might not show up in the data. But you can’t sign a dapmaster to a multi year deal.

He has to also be adding to the on court performance and that DOES or DOES NOT show up in data, even as just correlation without proving causation. They are are either winning games by more points with him on the court or they are not.

I will say he IS objectively a better fit coming off the bench, and that does seem to be borne out by the recent data trend line. Because he is a “disruptor” type of player, that disruption can help or hurt. For a starting unit with aspirations of competing with playoff competition, it’s probably not best to roll the dice on that disruptive force going our way before the starting lineup has a chance to establish a rhythm and flow. An Oubre/Pietrus type of player needs to be a guy you can do without on a night where his disruption is going in the wrong direction. And inserting him against opposing lineups that have already broken the seal on their own bench gives a boost to the likelihood that he won’t wreck us and help the opposition. As a bench guy he could play anywhere from 15 minutes to 38 minutes depending on if those minutes are working. And that’s why I have maintained from the beginning that he was not a starter for a good team, but could be a good option as a featured bench player.

I actually picked him to be the better player than Wiggins when we signed him. I expected this to go very different than it has, but the reality is, liked, supported or not, he was miscast as a starter. It was an emergency move to fill an injury void and the main conflict on the board around Oubre is whether or not the proper fit and role will be worth what it will cost to retain him.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#53 » by shazam_guy » Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:10 pm

I don't think "passive aggressive" is really the term you're looking for -- not on this board. I think clearly stating an opinion AS an opinion on a board where people often state their opinions as facts is almost the opposite.

Or is there something passive aggressive about the phrase "feel free to disagree"?
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#54 » by Sleepy51 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:37 pm

shazam_guy wrote:He's been a good deal more than a net negative, I think


sleepy51 wrote:I would be interested in why you think that, I think


shazam_guy wrote:HEY BACK OFF MAN. I didn't science it! I just think people really like him so chewbacca


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Lighten up Francis. Or maybe take a break.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#55 » by shazam_guy » Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:19 pm

Huh? Sleepy, you're a smart guy whose takes I have frequently complimented, but you've come up short in the "sarcastically inventing words for other people" exercise here. And on a board where people are constantly saying unprovable things like "Wiseman -- failed draft choice" and "Kerr/Myers/Draymond (take your pick) is an idiot", you seem to have taken particular offense at my saying that I think Kelly Oubre Jr. is a net positive.

Has this conversation struck a nerve for some reason? I certainly don't think my "Feel free to disagree" approach warrants this much grumpiness and scorn, let alone rewriting my responses to "HEY BACK OFF MAN!" I also notice you gave yourself the last word twice in the same comment, which seems a bit self-indulgent. And...Francis? I don't even know what that's supposed to mean.

IN OTHER NEWS: I'm not sure I'm the one who needs to take a break.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#56 » by and1GS » Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:48 pm

FWIW I do think Kelly has been a net negative. It mostly comes down to his low BBIQ (which he tries to offset with high athleticism) and high confidence (which is offset by his erratic shooting/playmaking).

I hear Kawakami say a lot 'who's gonna guard PGs if Oubre is gone?' and to that I say - huh? At no point this year have I said 'oh man, Kelly is eating this guy's lunch!' In defense of him, I do think he can be a disruptive defender, but man is he poor at rotations. And against offense initiators running pick and rolls that's a fairly basic skill you need to excel at. If he's not failing to rotate off ball he's constantly making the wrong over/under decision with ballhandlers. So what you have is a disruptive defender, who isn't a 1:1 stopper and should theoretically be fantastic at switching (given his size/athleticism), but isn't. I equate a lot of that to him simply not doing the homework. Should I go under the screen? Why would I need to? I'm Kelly Oubre and I can jump out of the gym, why would I need to think this through?

That's a lot of opining about defense when in reality top tier defenders are incredibly hard to come by. And I am being especially harsh given Kelly isn't a sieve and great O always beats great D. However, Kelly was sold to us as a defense first player. So that's what he should be graded on first.

And after that side of the ball, I generally think of Kelly as a grab bag of results. He could win you a game. He could also actively lose you a game that should probably be won. We all know how bad he started the year, but he's still only shooting 31% from 3. To illustrate how erratic his shot is, his 3pt% by month has been 5% (lol), 28%, 43%, 23%, 38%. For a guy who takes nearly 40% of his shots from 3, that's concerning.

I unfortunately abandoned hope for him long term. I do think a TPE would be better than Kelly. Unless you think $20m/year is market rate for an energy bench guy.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#57 » by Twinkie defense » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:56 am

Wow, so many bad takes in this thread... Warriors love Kelly Oubre and hope they can bring him back next season. This talk of starting or not starting is lame - Oubre is playing around the same minutes as Steph and Draymond.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#58 » by WarriorGM » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:19 am

I was 80% sure the Warriors needed to move on from Oubre but was willing to take one more deeper look at Oubre with Wiseman no longer in the picture muddling analysis. After this last Dallas game though I'm convinced Oubre needs to go.

http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20210427&game=DALGSW

Just look at that. Whenever he enters the team starts or accelerates going negative. After the first quarter when he's not in, the team is positive.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#59 » by zimpy27 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:58 am

Seems like strong denial to think Oubre has been anything but a sour note on the season. He was a mistake to bring on, probably many other candidates would have been more helpful. It was also a mistake not to trade him at deadline. Just let him walk.
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Re: Bench "Kelly Mother****ing Oubre" 

Post#60 » by Sleepy51 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:39 pm

zimpy27 wrote:Seems like strong denial to think Oubre has been anything but a sour note on the season. He was a mistake to bring on, probably many other candidates would have been more helpful. It was also a mistake not to trade him at deadline. Just let him walk.


I still think that if Meyers can hardball him into a "bet on yourself deal" he could either be forced into a role that helps the team (matchup driven off the bench) and with maximized positive minutes while Klay plays into shape. If a few things break right, he could be very tradeable at the next deadline.
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