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2021 Draft Thread

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AdonalFoyle4Prez
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#181 » by AdonalFoyle4Prez » Tue Jun 1, 2021 11:15 pm

Scoots1994 wrote:
Onus wrote:
GSWFan1994 wrote:
Who would you pick in the 6/8 range, Onus?

Right now my tiers are

Tier 1
Mobley
Green
Cade

Tier 2
Suggs
Kuminga
Sengun

Tier 3
Giddey
Mitchell
Moody
JJ
Wagner


Sengun as a viable pick at #4 seems VERY high to me. Guess I'll have to take a closer look.

So if the Warriors end up with #1 and #4 do you go Mobley/Suggs or Cade/Sengun?


Sengun top 10? Hmm.

How woud the Dubs' get #1 AND #4? Lottery predictions have been laid out and says we're likely to land #6 - #8 (Conveyed if Minny's pick lands out of top 3) and #14.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#182 » by hamncheese » Tue Jun 1, 2021 11:41 pm

^Minnesota would get #4 and it goes to the Warriors (9.6%) and Warriors get #1 (0.5%), so that's an 0.048% chance to get #1 and #4.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#183 » by Scoots1994 » Wed Jun 2, 2021 1:01 am

AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:
Onus wrote:Right now my tiers are

Tier 1
Mobley
Green
Cade

Tier 2
Suggs
Kuminga
Sengun

Tier 3
Giddey
Mitchell
Moody
JJ
Wagner


Sengun as a viable pick at #4 seems VERY high to me. Guess I'll have to take a closer look.

So if the Warriors end up with #1 and #4 do you go Mobley/Suggs or Cade/Sengun?


Sengun top 10? Hmm.

How woud the Dubs' get #1 AND #4? Lottery predictions have been laid out and says we're likely to land #6 - #8 (Conveyed if Minny's pick lands out of top 3) and #14.


He had Sengun top 6 (with a possible #4).

The Warriors are top 20 protected so if they "win" the lottery they can get picks 1, 2, 3, or 4, or stay at 14 with their own pick. If the Wolves win the lottery at #4 the Warriors get it since it's only top 3 protected ... so that pick can only be at 4, 6, 7, 8, 9. So the Warriors worst case scenario is just #14, their best case scenario is #1 and #4.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#184 » by Scoots1994 » Wed Jun 2, 2021 1:03 am

Just imagine the NBA GMs, coaches, players faces at the lottery announcement when they start with the 14th pick if they don't say "Golden State Warriors" ... Oh I want it sooooooo bad.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#185 » by AdonalFoyle4Prez » Wed Jun 2, 2021 1:25 am

hamncheese wrote:^Minnesota would get #4 and it goes to the Warriors (9.6%) and Warriors get #1 (0.5%), so that's an 0.048% chance to get #1 and #4.


Scenario is that we get either #1 or #4. But, get what you're saying.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#186 » by mos_def » Wed Jun 2, 2021 4:13 am

AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
mos_def wrote:
Dubs 707 wrote:Y'all go be mad when Joe and Co draft Jalen Johnson and Ziaire Williams lol


I think the 6th pick will be Jalen Johnson


Jalen Johnson showed flashes of potential, but still a bit raw/green to Curry and gang's liking. I'd take BPA or go with Giddey or Sengun at the #14.

I'm reading a lot of blogs and YouTube videos of us trading Wiseman and our 2021 picks and future FRP for Sabonis. He'd be the ideal 5 to have (Not a consistent long ranger, though). With that being the case, I still don't think such a deal can happen. Indiana's still a competitive ballclub who just underachieved this season.


I'm with the Richard Jefferson and Perkins philosophy of dont trade Wiseman plus for a second tier allstar.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#187 » by Scoots1994 » Wed Jun 2, 2021 12:44 pm

AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
hamncheese wrote:^Minnesota would get #4 and it goes to the Warriors (9.6%) and Warriors get #1 (0.5%), so that's an 0.048% chance to get #1 and #4.


Scenario is that we get either #1 or #4. But, get what you're saying.


The Warriors can get #1 AND #4.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#188 » by Scoots1994 » Wed Jun 2, 2021 12:45 pm

mos_def wrote:
AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
mos_def wrote:
I think the 6th pick will be Jalen Johnson


Jalen Johnson showed flashes of potential, but still a bit raw/green to Curry and gang's liking. I'd take BPA or go with Giddey or Sengun at the #14.

I'm reading a lot of blogs and YouTube videos of us trading Wiseman and our 2021 picks and future FRP for Sabonis. He'd be the ideal 5 to have (Not a consistent long ranger, though). With that being the case, I still don't think such a deal can happen. Indiana's still a competitive ballclub who just underachieved this season.


I'm with the Richard Jefferson and Perkins philosophy of dont trade Wiseman plus for a second tier allstar.


As much as I love Sabonis for the Warriors (I had hoped they would work something out for him when his value was so low when he was being mis-used), I agree that 3 first round picks (JW and 2 2021 picks) for him is too high a price to pay.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#189 » by AdonalFoyle4Prez » Wed Jun 2, 2021 5:39 pm

Scoots1994 wrote:
AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
hamncheese wrote:^Minnesota would get #4 and it goes to the Warriors (9.6%) and Warriors get #1 (0.5%), so that's an 0.048% chance to get #1 and #4.


Scenario is that we get either #1 or #4. But, get what you're saying.


The Warriors can get #1 AND #4.


I'm still confused by the wording and concept, lol. Getting #1 is very slim based on win-loss records compared to other teams, so lets get that out of the way (We're getting #14, most likely.). Getting #4 is a medium-to-high possibility because of the probability of the Wolves' not getting top-3 pick.

So, we could be getting #4 and #14. But, realistically, we're just going to get #14 and a future unprotected 2022 FRP from Wolves.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#190 » by ChuckDurn » Wed Jun 2, 2021 6:06 pm

AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:
AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
Scenario is that we get either #1 or #4. But, get what you're saying.


The Warriors can get #1 AND #4.


I'm still confused by the wording and concept, lol. Getting #1 is very slim based on win-loss records compared to other teams, so lets get that out of the way (We're getting #14, most likely.). Getting #4 is a medium-to-high possibility because of the probability of the Wolves' not getting top-3 pick.

So, we could be getting #4 and #14. But, realistically, we're just going to get #14 and a future unprotected 2022 FRP from Wolves.

The table in the link below shows the exact odds for every team.

With our own pick, we have a 97.6% chance of picking 14th, but a 2.4% chance of picking in the top 4. (0.5% that it's number 1, and 0.6%/0.6%/0.7% for picks 2, 3, and 4, respectively.)

It is 72.4% likely that the Warriors get the Wolves' pick this year rather than in 2022. The only way we don't get it is if it is #1 (9%), #2 (9.2%), or #3 (9.4%). So we'll probably end up getting it this year, though the most likely individual scenarios are that it ends up at #7 (29.7%) or #8 (20.6%). The odds that we get the #4 pick from the Wolves is only 9.6%.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2021/05/2021-nba-draft-lottery-odds.html
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#191 » by hamncheese » Wed Jun 2, 2021 6:30 pm

AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:
AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
Scenario is that we get either #1 or #4. But, get what you're saying.


The Warriors can get #1 AND #4.


I'm still confused by the wording and concept, lol. Getting #1 is very slim based on win-loss records compared to other teams, so lets get that out of the way (We're getting #14, most likely.). Getting #4 is a medium-to-high possibility because of the probability of the Wolves' not getting top-3 pick.

So, we could be getting #4 and #14. But, realistically, we're just going to get #14 and a future unprotected 2022 FRP from Wolves.

You asked how could the Warrriors get #1 and 4, and I just presented the only way. Minnesota has the ping pong balls for #4 and the Warriors #1, but that is only 0.048% chance or 3 in 6,250 chances. Obviously unlikely. Just getting only the #1 from their pick is 1 in 200. Getting #14 and Minnesota pick this year is still more likely than #14 and Minnesota pick next year.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#192 » by GSWFan1994 » Wed Jun 2, 2021 8:09 pm

In Brazil, you give an explanation, then draw the explanation, then explain the drawing. Yet some people still don't understand.

Guess it's not only in Brazil.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#193 » by Scoots1994 » Wed Jun 2, 2021 8:32 pm

AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:
AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
Scenario is that we get either #1 or #4. But, get what you're saying.


The Warriors can get #1 AND #4.


I'm still confused by the wording and concept, lol. Getting #1 is very slim based on win-loss records compared to other teams, so lets get that out of the way (We're getting #14, most likely.). Getting #4 is a medium-to-high possibility because of the probability of the Wolves' not getting top-3 pick.

So, we could be getting #4 and #14. But, realistically, we're just going to get #14 and a future unprotected 2022 FRP from Wolves.


I guess the issue is "can" ... the Warriors CAN get #1 and #4, it's just VEEEEEEEERY unlikely.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#194 » by AdonalFoyle4Prez » Wed Jun 2, 2021 10:20 pm

Scoots1994 wrote:
AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:
The Warriors can get #1 AND #4.


I'm still confused by the wording and concept, lol. Getting #1 is very slim based on win-loss records compared to other teams, so lets get that out of the way (We're getting #14, most likely.). Getting #4 is a medium-to-high possibility because of the probability of the Wolves' not getting top-3 pick.

So, we could be getting #4 and #14. But, realistically, we're just going to get #14 and a future unprotected 2022 FRP from Wolves.


I guess the issue is "can" ... the Warriors CAN get #1 and #4, it's just VEEEEEEEERY unlikely.


The odds of us getting #1 is 0.5% percent. Some ya'll act like 0.5% is something to be hopeful for when comparing to other teams who have a much better chance at it than we do (3 teams with 14% equal chance of getting #1, and 2 other teams with 11.5%, respectively.). We have 97.6% odds of getting the 14th pick, and that's highly believable and a given.

No team in NBA history has gotten #1 with a decent record above .500 games, ever. As it's always been conventionally laid out: The worse the team from the last season is, record-wise, the more lottery balls aka chances they'll have in securing top 1-3 pick (It'll happen once in a blue moon that a very very very very very very very very very bad team supposedly/likely getting #1 or top 3 ends up drafting at 5th pick -- but nothing lower from that position.). Otherwise, prove me wrong. I'll wait.

That's all I'm saying, and just want to shutdown the possibility of getting #1 because that ain't happening at all. So, again, realistically, we're getting either of the 2 scenarios: Anywhere between #4 thru #8 and our own #14 pick, or just the #14 pick. Simple. Unless you want to make a friendly wager? :P
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#195 » by Scoots1994 » Thu Jun 3, 2021 2:15 am

AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:
AdonalFoyle4Prez wrote:
I'm still confused by the wording and concept, lol. Getting #1 is very slim based on win-loss records compared to other teams, so lets get that out of the way (We're getting #14, most likely.). Getting #4 is a medium-to-high possibility because of the probability of the Wolves' not getting top-3 pick.

So, we could be getting #4 and #14. But, realistically, we're just going to get #14 and a future unprotected 2022 FRP from Wolves.


I guess the issue is "can" ... the Warriors CAN get #1 and #4, it's just VEEEEEEEERY unlikely.


The odds of us getting #1 is 0.5% percent. Some ya'll act like 0.5% is something to be hopeful for when comparing to other teams who have a much better chance at it than we do (3 teams with 14% equal chance of getting #1, and 2 other teams with 11.5%, respectively.). We have 97.6% odds of getting the 14th pick, and that's highly believable and a given.

No team in NBA history has gotten #1 with a decent record above .500 games, ever. As it's always been conventionally laid out: The worse the team from the last season is, record-wise, the more lottery balls aka chances they'll have in securing top 1-3 pick (It'll happen once in a blue moon that a very very very very very very very very very bad team supposedly/likely getting #1 or top 3 ends up drafting at 5th pick -- but nothing lower from that position.). Otherwise, prove me wrong. I'll wait.

That's all I'm saying, and just want to shutdown the possibility of getting #1 because that ain't happening at all. So, again, realistically, we're getting either of the 2 scenarios: Anywhere between #4 thru #8 and our own #14 pick, or just the #14 pick. Simple. Unless you want to make a friendly wager? :P


The Orlando Magic got the #1 pick in the draft with a .500 record.

Again, I'm NOT saying it's at all likely to happen, I just HOPE that it happens :) (and this silliness has gone on far too long)

The Warriors can't get the #5 pick (#4, #6-9). #14 pick is most likely for their own pick for sure.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#196 » by mos_def » Thu Jun 3, 2021 3:14 am

If we got 1 and 4 I wouldn't argue against trading Wiseman
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#197 » by azwfan » Thu Jun 3, 2021 1:19 pm

If we end up at 6/7 Im liking Moody right now slighly over Barnes.

At 14 I’m hoping Wagner will still be there. Im thinking someone considered for top 10 could slip. If no Wagner, hoping to trade out of that pick for a future 1st and a cheap (but useful) vet. Would add in Mulder and Paschall for salary matching purposes.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#198 » by ChuckDurn » Thu Jun 3, 2021 4:05 pm

azwfan wrote:If we end up at 6/7 Im liking Moody right now slighly over Barnes.

At 14 I’m hoping Wagner will still be there. Im thinking someone considered for top 10 could slip. If no Wagner, hoping to trade out of that pick for a future 1st and a cheap (but useful) vet. Would add in Mulder and Paschall for salary matching purposes.

I think this draft is among the most "wide open" for picks up to #20 than we've seen in quite a while. I think there are 7 pretty "sure-fire" locks to go in the top-10: Cade, Mobley, Suggs, Green, Kuminga, Barnes, and Keon Johnson. (Not that I'm particularly sold on Johnson, but he seems to have a lot of traction and people are buying into his upside.)

Beyond that, there's a pretty healthy list of guys who could end up in the top-10, including Moody, Kispert, Jalen Johnson, Springer, Sengun, Giddey, Mitchell, Wagner, Sengun, Bouknight...... we're already up to 17 total guys, and I don't have much of a feel of how these last 10 guys fit into tiers at this point. (And there's a couple of other guys - Garuba, Ziaire Williams, Kai Jones - who haven't been mocked in the top-10 much, but consistently are in the top-20.)

The net, in my mind, is that I don't know if there's going to be a "this guy slipped out of the top-10, so we should take him if he's there at 14" situation, because I think they're all pretty close, and it will come down to specific team needs and plans.

Just my take.

Re: Barnes vs. Moody - right now, I think Barnes has more sex appeal to teams, where Moody is more predictable (high floor, but probably lower ceiling). If they're both on the board when our pick comes up, I might see if I could do a very slight trade-down (1-2 spots) to somebody who wants Barnes, with the hope of ending up with Moody and a small asset as well. I think Moody fits our need more, though Barnes has more star potential. But that could all change with the combine and other things over the next several weeks.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#199 » by whatisacenter » Thu Jun 3, 2021 4:15 pm

mos_def wrote:If we got 1 and 4 I wouldn't argue against trading Wiseman


I would trade 1, 4, Wiseman + Wiggins for the right player.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#200 » by GSWFan1994 » Thu Jun 3, 2021 4:16 pm

Speaking of Keon Johnson, what are your thoughts on him?

Barely anything is written about him in this board.

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