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Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022

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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#21 » by HiRez » Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:34 pm

Looking for Looney to start at the beginning of the year but it won't surprise me if Wiseman is starting the back half. I think he's going to make some big improvements...still not perfect of course. I was re-watching some of his highlights the other day and despite him being dumped on constantly in here, holy crap, he just has some incredible ability. Needs to obviously be more aggressive rebounding and have better shot selection (or preferably, just shoot less from the outside for now). But he can do things few others in the league can. Dude can take the ball ~20 feet for a dunk in a flash with a single dribble, or 15 feet with no dribbles. Still a lot of unknowns, but if Wiseman can make a Poole-like year 1>2 improvement, he's going to be quite a force. I don't imagine Wiseman and his coaches will be just been sitting around idle all summer, they're working with him.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#22 » by WarriorGM » Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:36 pm

The-Power wrote:
FNQ wrote:
The-Power wrote:I mentioned in the very next paragraph that I don't think it's very likely. I just don't understand the ‘no way you can start Wiseman’ crowd even if he did indeed show up much improved and outplayed Looney.


Because Looney annihilated him last year in games that count, so Wiseman should need more than a good camp to unseat the incumbent, if nothing else out of respect for the veteran who played well. If Wiseman has improved, he'll take the role

So let's assume Wiseman shows up and plays great in the line-ups with the starters and looks generally much improved, and the coaching stuff believes he's going to be better than Looney this season as the starting Center. So we don't start him in order to ‘show respect’ to a career-back up Center who has to play limited minutes and might not even care about starting, fully expecting that a bunch of games into the season we'll have to flip everything over again and change starting line-ups? Seems awfully cumbersome to get out of the way to not start the guy to start the season. Again: this is based on the aforementioned assumption, and not necessarily what I predict will actually happen; it's a hypothetical for the time being.

Also, we all agree that both players will split minutes next season, don't we? So even if Looney is still more impactful than Wiseman, Wiseman will still get his minutes. What if the coaches believed that pairing Wiseman with the starters to start games and having Looney come off the bench is a better strategy for whatever reasons (see my longer post for some possible thoughts)? In that case, the fact that Looney ‘annihilated’ Wiseman last year is pretty irrelevant because the minutes are going to be split either way and all you do is pick the timing of when to play Looney instead of Wiseman and make use of his superior impact (i.e. we're not talking about a competition for minutes but about strategic timing, because Looney's minutes are capped now matter what).


He hasn't played a game since his injury due to recovery time. He isn't going to impress anyone with the limited practice opportunities.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#23 » by Scoots1994 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:38 pm

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Wiseman starts game 1.

Kerr likes Looney off the bench and Looney can't physically stand up to the beating starting will put him through.

This is why I really wanted another center.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#24 » by Impuniti » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:45 pm

Scoots1994 wrote:Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Wiseman starts game 1.

Kerr likes Looney off the bench and Looney can't physically stand up to the beating starting will put him through.

This is why I really wanted another center.

Why would you be worried about Looney's minutes/body? Last season during the end of the year run, you could only replace him with Dray/JTA. Now there's Bjelica and Wiseman. Loon won't need to play more than 20MPG.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#25 » by FNQ » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:48 pm

The-Power wrote:
So let's assume Wiseman shows up and plays great in the line-ups with the starters and looks generally much improved, and the coaching stuff believes he's going to be better than Looney this season as the starting Center. So we don't start him in order to ‘show respect’ to a career-back up Center who has to play limited minutes and might not even care about starting, fully expecting that a bunch of games into the season we'll have to flip everything over again and change starting line-ups? Seems awfully cumbersome to get out of the way to not start the guy to start the season. Again: this is based on the aforementioned assumption, and not necessarily what I predict will actually happen; it's a hypothetical for the time being.


The assumption isn't possible though. That's the point - even if the staff determined that they think Wiseman, without much of a camp at all, is somehow a better fit than Looney, he's still coming off injury, Looney still was the better player last year, and you don't undeservedly start a young player twice on a team trying to win right now. Wiseman was handed the job initially. He fumbled. He now has to win it back, and doing that in practice would be massively disrespectful to the vet. If Wiseman is better, he'll show it, and force the move. Starting him going into the season is a handout, and he's not the type of world-beating talent where he gets multiple of those on a good team.

Also, we all agree that both players will split minutes next season, don't we?

Nope. I'd imagine Looney and Bjelica get more minutes out the gate and Wiseman will have to show progress/health to get back into a legit timehsare. Eventually yes, but to start the season? Wiseman will be getting the short straw until health/effectiveness is proven

So even if Looney is still more impactful than Wiseman, Wiseman will still get his minutes. What if the coaches believed that pairing Wiseman with the starters to start games and having Looney come off the bench is a better strategy for whatever reasons (see my longer post for some possible thoughts)? In that case, the fact that Looney ‘annihilated’ Wiseman last year is pretty irrelevant because the minutes are going to be split either way and all you do is pick the timing of when to play Looney instead of Wiseman and make use of his superior impact (i.e. we're not talking about a competition for minutes but about strategic timing, because Looney's minutes are capped now matter what).


The fact that Looney was so much better is why he'll get more minutes to start - deservedly so - and the more important minutes. But he's not the important part here. Wiseman was gifted a starting role, he wasn't ready. He was then moved to a backup role, where he still wasn't ready. There was no consistent success from him last year, 40 games. A limited camp/preseason should not erase what Looney accomplished and what Wiseman didn't last year. If Wiseman can beat out Looney, he'll have to do it in situations that matter, and prove he deserves it. Practice is where you sharpen the skills so you can prove it, not where you prove it.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#26 » by FNQ » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:52 pm

Impuniti wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Wiseman starts game 1.

Kerr likes Looney off the bench and Looney can't physically stand up to the beating starting will put him through.

This is why I really wanted another center.

Why would you be worried about Looney's minutes/body? Last season during the end of the year run, you could only replace him with Dray/JTA. Now there's Bjelica and Wiseman. Loon won't need to play more than 20MPG.


Starting is only important relative to who they are playing with. Unless you are a bad team, you always start with the people you can count on.. Looney is one of those guys. Bjelica and Wiseman will likely get opportunities to prove it could/should be them, but I'd say there's pretty much 0 chance that either of them gets the start over Looney, barring injury

My guess is that Wiseman sees ~10mpg to start the season to get reacclimated to the game, and then its effectively an open competition for minutes for the 3 as the season goes on

Can't be concerned about Looney's body and not share the same concerns about Wiseman, who was injured twice in his rookie season and is coming off a major injury already
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#27 » by The-Power » Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:35 pm

FNQ wrote:The assumption isn't possible though. That's the point - even if the staff determined that they think Wiseman, without much of a camp at all, is somehow a better fit than Looney, he's still coming off injury, Looney still was the better player last year, and you don't undeservedly start a young player twice on a team trying to win right now.

Okay, I see wherein our disagreement lies. I consider the Center position to be pretty much up for grabs as far as the starting position is concerned. Hence, an impressive training camp and pre-season showing matters as far as I'm concerned.

FNQ wrote:Wiseman was handed the job initially. He fumbled. He now has to win it back, and doing that in practice would be massively disrespectful to the vet. If Wiseman is better, he'll show it, and force the move.

I think ‘massively disrespectful’ is seriously stretching it. We're talking about Kevon Looney. Great player for what we do but he's been a career back-up who's playing limited minutes for his career not least because we fear his body might break down. He's also exercised the 5 million player option because other teams realize he's not a starting Center in this league or else some team would have paid him more. And are we even sure Looney at all cares about starting? Because if he's not feeling disrespected, then none of us should on his behalf.

Also, let's not forget that it was Kerr who came in and benched Iguodala in order to start Barnes, who by no means earned it because he was better – the decision was made for strategic reasons. And Looney obviously isn't close to a late-prime Iguodala in terms of impact and status. So I really don't see the issue with starting Wiseman IF the coaches believe that'll benefit the team. Deciding on who starts is not always just about being ‘better’.

FNQ wrote:Starting him going into the season is a handout, and he's not the type of world-beating talent where he gets multiple of those on a good team.

It would not be a handout, though. It would either be earned due to a great camp and pre-season or it would be a strategic decision. I understand that you don't think it's enough to demonstrate improvement in less competitive environments, and I can respect that view. I just want to be clear that I'm not talking about a handout here, in the sense that he's just gifted the role without having done anything to show that he deserves it (i.e. the discussion is rather about whether he can possibly show enough prior to the season to ‘deserve’ it, which is where we are a bit apart).

FNQ wrote:Nope. I'd imagine Looney and Bjelica get more minutes out the gate and Wiseman will have to show progress/health to get back into a legit timehsare. Eventually yes, but to start the season? Wiseman will be getting the short straw until health/effectiveness is proven

With ‘splitting minutes’ I did not necessarily mean equally. The exact distribution is still to be determined and probably subject to considerable game-to-game variance. You could also still start Wiseman and not play him many minutes if that's what the game requires. Wiseman last season averaged 22.6 MPG as a starter and 18.9 MPG as a reserve – that's not a big difference. In 2018, the Warriors started Zaza but only played him 14 MPG; so there is recent precedent that the Warriors may start a Center but very much limit his minutes.

FNQ wrote:The fact that Looney was so much better is why he'll get more minutes to start - deservedly so - and the more important minutes.

The more important minutes are likely going to Looney (or see Draymond at the 5) until Wiseman proves himself more, I agree. I just don't see how being the starter matters all that much and history indicates that neither does Kerr, really. I think the other part of our disagreement is that you just care a lot more about who starts as you see it as a matter of respect and deservingness, whereas I see it more as an issue of game strategy and medium-term/late-season expectations (so that you can start early to work towards them).

FNQ wrote:Unless you are a bad team, you always start with the people you can count on.

Who came up with this ‘rule’? Two of the most prominent examples over the past decade, Iguodala and Ginobili, certainly demonstrate that coaches don't always see it like that. In Europe it's also very common to have some of your best players come off the bench.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#28 » by Scoots1994 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:42 pm

Impuniti wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Wiseman starts game 1.

Kerr likes Looney off the bench and Looney can't physically stand up to the beating starting will put him through.

This is why I really wanted another center.

Why would you be worried about Looney's minutes/body? Last season during the end of the year run, you could only replace him with Dray/JTA. Now there's Bjelica and Wiseman. Loon won't need to play more than 20MPG.


I'm not worried about anything related to the team. It's entertainment.

But when I look at Looney I see a guy with a long injury history and don't know that he will be able to take the banging often involved against starting centers. Looney is going to be better at it than Dray or JTA but that's not a great point either. The person most capable of banging with Jokic/Gasol/Howard/Ayton/KAT/Valenciunus/Gobert on a nightly basis on the Warriors roster is Wiseman.

I'm not saying he's best, but the matchup probably works with him getting the early minutes over Looney/Bjelica.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#29 » by Dom801e » Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:46 pm

Looney starting playing 15-18mpg. Wiseman primary backup 18-22mpg. Rest of the minutes will be based on who’s hot/playing well, matchup, availability. Would not be surprised if Porter, JTA, Kuminga all got minutes at 5 at various times this year.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#30 » by Impuniti » Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:49 pm

Scoots1994 wrote:
Impuniti wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Wiseman starts game 1.

Kerr likes Looney off the bench and Looney can't physically stand up to the beating starting will put him through.

This is why I really wanted another center.

Why would you be worried about Looney's minutes/body? Last season during the end of the year run, you could only replace him with Dray/JTA. Now there's Bjelica and Wiseman. Loon won't need to play more than 20MPG.


I'm not worried about anything related to the team. It's entertainment.

But when I look at Looney I see a guy with a long injury history and don't know that he will be able to take the banging often involved against starting centers. Looney is going to be better at it than Dray or JTA but that's not a great point either. The person most capable of banging with Jokic/Gasol/Howard/Ayton/KAT/Valenciunus/Gobert on a nightly basis on the Warriors roster is Wiseman.

I'm not saying he's best, but the matchup probably works with him getting the early minutes over Looney/Bjelica.

But that's not the case. Looney has proven that he can bang with those guys, the team was horrific defensively while he started. Reality is that Wiseman was flat out garbage defensively last season, and the team's defense tanked most of the time he was on the court. He shouldn't be a starter until he earns that position. If he shows intelligence on the defensive ends and learns what boxing out means, then he should definitely start, and he will. But he hasn't show either yet.

It was a dumb decision to start him last season instead of gradually integrating him into the team, hopefully they've learned from their mistakes.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#31 » by FNQ » Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:43 am

The-Power wrote:
FNQ wrote:Unless you are a bad team, you always start with the people you can count on.

Who came up with this ‘rule’? Two of the most prominent examples over the past decade, Iguodala and Ginobili, certainly demonstrate that coaches don't always see it like that. In Europe it's also very common to have some of your best players come off the bench.


In the context of the beginning of the season, then yes you start with the people you can count on, and make the others earn the role. In terms of Iguodala/Barnes, the 5th starter spot there was a gift, because the other 4 spots were locked in with great players that we could count on. We're not really in that position this year, with Curry and Dray being the lone 2 guys you can really count on - Wiggins maybe, but a bit of a stretch, and definitely not whoever starts at 2 or 5. But unlike the 2, we have a guy at the 5 who's familiar with the system, especially defensively, and is fairly consistent if not unspectacular. Since we aren't stable everywhere else, having a stable person playing with the starters is more important. And when I say starter at C, I mean the C getting all the non-death-lineup minutes with the starting group. So basically someone who's in the game for the 1st 6-8min of a half, and maybe a couple min before the death lineup closes the half. So in the 18-20m range but always with the starters - Kerr's been fairly militant with how he makes his subs in most games

I dont see the C position up for grabs because of Wiseman's injury. If he had finished the year with the team, I could see it. But off a major injury, off a horrible season.. main thing is to get him healthy and confident, and then he can challenge for the spot again

If you were head coach, considering how badly Wiseman played last year, considering his injury, and considering how well Looney lineups did... what exactly would have to happen in practice only for Wiseman to start over Looney? Because for me there's be only one scenario: Looney and Bjelica simultaneously get injured
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#32 » by FNQ » Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:47 am

Impuniti wrote:It was a dumb decision to start him last season instead of gradually integrating him into the team, hopefully they've learned from their mistakes.


As against starting him as I am, I disagree with this. I like giving talented players a shot early on. Its hard to gauge how they'd do in SL, preseason and all that.. if they have the clear talent, and guys like JW, Kuminga, and Moody absolutely do.. and we have an immediate need for those talents.. don't dick around with them, give them a month and let's evaluate where they are, what they need to improve, etc.

I think they let Wiseman start a bit too long, but I was fine with him having the job out the gate. Just like I'd be fine if Moody starterd this season, or if Kuminga had a primary bench scorer role sewn up going into the year. But have a quicker hook in-game and make sure you have scenarios that cater to their strengths ready to roll as well, and I think that's where Kerr failed JW last year. He didnt have much of an idea of how to get JW rolling, but that's likely due to the crazy scenario we were in with him
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#33 » by Impuniti » Sun Aug 15, 2021 3:41 am

FNQ wrote:
Impuniti wrote:It was a dumb decision to start him last season instead of gradually integrating him into the team, hopefully they've learned from their mistakes.


As against starting him as I am, I disagree with this. I like giving talented players a shot early on. Its hard to gauge how they'd do in SL, preseason and all that.. if they have the clear talent, and guys like JW, Kuminga, and Moody absolutely do.. and we have an immediate need for those talents.. don't dick around with them, give them a month and let's evaluate where they are, what they need to improve, etc.

I think they let Wiseman start a bit too long, but I was fine with him having the job out the gate. Just like I'd be fine if Moody starterd this season, or if Kuminga had a primary bench scorer role sewn up going into the year. But have a quicker hook in-game and make sure you have scenarios that cater to their strengths ready to roll as well, and I think that's where Kerr failed JW last year. He didnt have much of an idea of how to get JW rolling, but that's likely due to the crazy scenario we were in with him

Yeah, I guess that's fine. Him starting for so long was just killer to the team because he clearly wasn't adapting fast enough. But I think Wiseman's issues are as much to blame on him as they are on the FO who just "let him do whatever". You have to make sure guys fit and then improve a few things really every 2-3 months. With WIseman, they should have focused purely on boxing out, rebounding, and then allowing him to get used to more and more defensive schemes as time went on.

Because I'm kind of with you on Mad-Eye Moody, wouldn't mind trying him out. Maybe not game 1 because it will likely be vs a top end team like Bucks, Nets, or Lakers, but matchday 2 and on.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#34 » by Scoots1994 » Sun Aug 15, 2021 3:52 pm

Impuniti wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:
Impuniti wrote:Why would you be worried about Looney's minutes/body? Last season during the end of the year run, you could only replace him with Dray/JTA. Now there's Bjelica and Wiseman. Loon won't need to play more than 20MPG.


I'm not worried about anything related to the team. It's entertainment.

But when I look at Looney I see a guy with a long injury history and don't know that he will be able to take the banging often involved against starting centers. Looney is going to be better at it than Dray or JTA but that's not a great point either. The person most capable of banging with Jokic/Gasol/Howard/Ayton/KAT/Valenciunus/Gobert on a nightly basis on the Warriors roster is Wiseman.

I'm not saying he's best, but the matchup probably works with him getting the early minutes over Looney/Bjelica.

But that's not the case. Looney has proven that he can bang with those guys, the team was horrific defensively while he started. Reality is that Wiseman was flat out garbage defensively last season, and the team's defense tanked most of the time he was on the court. He shouldn't be a starter until he earns that position. If he shows intelligence on the defensive ends and learns what boxing out means, then he should definitely start, and he will. But he hasn't show either yet.

It was a dumb decision to start him last season instead of gradually integrating him into the team, hopefully they've learned from their mistakes.


I assume that the "he" in "the team was horrific defensively while he started" was Wiseman and not the subject of the sentence Looney?

I didn't want Wiseman to start last year, I don't particularly want him to start this year, but ... I expect Wiseman to be dramatically better this year, and Kerr has some odd habits on naming starters. All I said is it wouldn't surprise me if Wiseman starts.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#35 » by ILOVEIT » Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:59 am

Looney. I'd say BJ but he'll be the stretch 4 off the bench with Wiseman.
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#36 » by Upperclass » Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:51 am

Kuminga will be playing alot of 5
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#37 » by BBQ Thurmond » Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:47 pm

Upperclass wrote:Kuminga will be playing alot of 5


Wiseman-Looney-Kuminga, the three-headed center rotation.

When Kuminga plays center, would this be with Draymond at power forward?
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#38 » by S-Gorilla86 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:39 pm

BBQ Thurmond wrote:
Upperclass wrote:Kuminga will be playing alot of 5


Wiseman-Looney-Kuminga, the three-headed center rotation.

When Kuminga plays center, would this be with Draymond at power forward?
That's an interesting thought, Kuminga at the 5 definitely adds a new wrinkle. We saw it in summer league, but I don't know how he will get significant minutes at the 5 especially since he'll be brought along slowly. And I would certainly want Draymond on the court with him during those minutes.

As for the minute distribution, multiple posters have already put it out there but I think Looney starts the season and gets more minutes than Wiseman, and as the season goes on things will trend Wiseman's way. Loon will end with about 18 MPG, Wiseman 22 MPG, and the rest will be a combo of all the other guys when we go smaller.

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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#39 » by KevinMcreynolds » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:30 pm

go full-Nellieball, Kuminga at the 5
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Re: Predict the center rotation for 2021-2022 

Post#40 » by sonnyhill » Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:05 pm

KevinMcreynolds wrote:go full-Nellieball, Kuminga at the 5


I like your "out-of-the-box" thinking!

At the other end of the spectrum is bluemanhoop.com. Their take on who should start at center for the Warriors: https://bluemanhoop.com/2021/08/25/start-center-golden-state-warriors/

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