shazam_guy wrote:Just to remind people by calling on another sport, a lot of people would have said before this season that if we SF Giants fans expected much out of Posey, Crawford, Belt, etc. that our glasses must not just be rose-tinted but utterly opaque. But the G's are kicking ass and playing great ball, and it's an amazingly fun team to watch. The young guys are contributing too, but because the vets are playing so well, the youngsters don't have to carry the team yet. And our best prospects are still in the farm system.
That's what the Warriors are trying to do, play for the future while trying to win in the present. I hope it works, but even if it doesn't, it's definitely my favored approach. Because favored, go-for-it-now teams frequently flame out, but when they do they've shot their future, sometimes for a decade.
Baseball is so very different though. The same strategy for baseball and basketball is a bad idea.
A person in data science classes ran the numbers on this a few years back using betting odds to start the season for all 3 main sports, dating back to 1996 (thru 2016), and what the odds were at the halfway point of the season too.
The highest variant to start the season was football
The highest variant in the middle of the season was baseball
The most consistent sport by MILES was basketball
So as for this win but build for the future method...
Football: it can work, but you'll know early on
Baseball: it does work, because the minor leagues are so deep, variance in events is so high, and supposedly due to the longevity of the season affecting fatigue and chronic injury
Basketball: it doesn't, and the main reason for variance was injury
I'm absolutely fine with this team as is, and I think we'll be very competitive. We were given a situation that hardly any team in the NBA is ever given - probably not since the Pistons in 2003 - and we have plenty of examples of the methodology failing, with the Spurs being the most recent/easy example. As a methodology, its deeply flawed. But the truth its just as flawed the other direction. Just make smart moves. If the Pistons traded the #2 pick, maybe they do better than 1 title. However if its a bad trade, maybe they dont win any. Likewise if they drafted anyone in the top 5 besides Darko, maybe they win more than 1 title. And I personally think the Warriors drafted well this year after not drafting well last year, and that combined with our talent should put us squarely in the upper echelon of teams right now.
But I definitely take issue with the idea that, if we're comparing the 2 strategies, that trying to win now while playing for the future is the better one... because that doesn't track. Unless how deep you go into the playoffs is what matters to you.. in that cae I can see it, but that doesnt line up with typical fans who want titles. A team that has a clear all-in mode and a clear rebuild mode has a better chance at winning more titles in a set timeframe than a team trying to do both, simply based on the empirical evidence of the past 25+ years, and likely beyond