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Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now?

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Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now?

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No
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Total votes: 69

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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#81 » by FNQ » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:45 pm

shazam_guy wrote:Just to remind people by calling on another sport, a lot of people would have said before this season that if we SF Giants fans expected much out of Posey, Crawford, Belt, etc. that our glasses must not just be rose-tinted but utterly opaque. But the G's are kicking ass and playing great ball, and it's an amazingly fun team to watch. The young guys are contributing too, but because the vets are playing so well, the youngsters don't have to carry the team yet. And our best prospects are still in the farm system.

That's what the Warriors are trying to do, play for the future while trying to win in the present. I hope it works, but even if it doesn't, it's definitely my favored approach. Because favored, go-for-it-now teams frequently flame out, but when they do they've shot their future, sometimes for a decade.


Baseball is so very different though. The same strategy for baseball and basketball is a bad idea.

A person in data science classes ran the numbers on this a few years back using betting odds to start the season for all 3 main sports, dating back to 1996 (thru 2016), and what the odds were at the halfway point of the season too.

The highest variant to start the season was football
The highest variant in the middle of the season was baseball
The most consistent sport by MILES was basketball

So as for this win but build for the future method...

Football: it can work, but you'll know early on
Baseball: it does work, because the minor leagues are so deep, variance in events is so high, and supposedly due to the longevity of the season affecting fatigue and chronic injury
Basketball: it doesn't, and the main reason for variance was injury

I'm absolutely fine with this team as is, and I think we'll be very competitive. We were given a situation that hardly any team in the NBA is ever given - probably not since the Pistons in 2003 - and we have plenty of examples of the methodology failing, with the Spurs being the most recent/easy example. As a methodology, its deeply flawed. But the truth its just as flawed the other direction. Just make smart moves. If the Pistons traded the #2 pick, maybe they do better than 1 title. However if its a bad trade, maybe they dont win any. Likewise if they drafted anyone in the top 5 besides Darko, maybe they win more than 1 title. And I personally think the Warriors drafted well this year after not drafting well last year, and that combined with our talent should put us squarely in the upper echelon of teams right now.

But I definitely take issue with the idea that, if we're comparing the 2 strategies, that trying to win now while playing for the future is the better one... because that doesn't track. Unless how deep you go into the playoffs is what matters to you.. in that cae I can see it, but that doesnt line up with typical fans who want titles. A team that has a clear all-in mode and a clear rebuild mode has a better chance at winning more titles in a set timeframe than a team trying to do both, simply based on the empirical evidence of the past 25+ years, and likely beyond
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#82 » by Chris Porter's Hair » Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:34 am

FNQ wrote:
shazam_guy wrote:Just to remind people by calling on another sport, a lot of people would have said before this season that if we SF Giants fans expected much out of Posey, Crawford, Belt, etc. that our glasses must not just be rose-tinted but utterly opaque. But the G's are kicking ass and playing great ball, and it's an amazingly fun team to watch. The young guys are contributing too, but because the vets are playing so well, the youngsters don't have to carry the team yet. And our best prospects are still in the farm system.

That's what the Warriors are trying to do, play for the future while trying to win in the present. I hope it works, but even if it doesn't, it's definitely my favored approach. Because favored, go-for-it-now teams frequently flame out, but when they do they've shot their future, sometimes for a decade.


Baseball is so very different though. The same strategy for baseball and basketball is a bad idea.

A person in data science classes ran the numbers on this a few years back using betting odds to start the season for all 3 main sports, dating back to 1996 (thru 2016), and what the odds were at the halfway point of the season too.

The highest variant to start the season was football
The highest variant in the middle of the season was baseball
The most consistent sport by MILES was basketball

So as for this win but build for the future method...

Football: it can work, but you'll know early on
Baseball: it does work, because the minor leagues are so deep, variance in events is so high, and supposedly due to the longevity of the season affecting fatigue and chronic injury
Basketball: it doesn't, and the main reason for variance was injury

I'm absolutely fine with this team as is, and I think we'll be very competitive. We were given a situation that hardly any team in the NBA is ever given - probably not since the Pistons in 2003 - and we have plenty of examples of the methodology failing, with the Spurs being the most recent/easy example. As a methodology, its deeply flawed. But the truth its just as flawed the other direction. Just make smart moves. If the Pistons traded the #2 pick, maybe they do better than 1 title. However if its a bad trade, maybe they dont win any. Likewise if they drafted anyone in the top 5 besides Darko, maybe they win more than 1 title. And I personally think the Warriors drafted well this year after not drafting well last year, and that combined with our talent should put us squarely in the upper echelon of teams right now.

But I definitely take issue with the idea that, if we're comparing the 2 strategies, that trying to win now while playing for the future is the better one... because that doesn't track. Unless how deep you go into the playoffs is what matters to you.. in that cae I can see it, but that doesnt line up with typical fans who want titles. A team that has a clear all-in mode and a clear rebuild mode has a better chance at winning more titles in a set timeframe than a team trying to do both, simply based on the empirical evidence of the past 25+ years, and likely beyond

Huh. The research you are talking about sounds fascinating, but I'm not sure I'm following the explanation. My intuition would be that basketball would experience the biggest swings/variance due to injury. You only have 12 man rosters, and an injury to one person can drastically change the makeup of your team. That's even more true as the trend goes to very top heavy teams like us, or even moreso the Lakers this past season.

Part of what you posted sounds like it agrees with this intuition:
Basketball: it doesn't, and the main reason for variance was injury

But the other part sounds like the opposite:
The most consistent sport by MILES was basketball

Can you clarify? Or point at the research? Thanks!
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#83 » by FNQ » Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:21 am

Chris Porter's Hair wrote:
FNQ wrote:
shazam_guy wrote:Just to remind people by calling on another sport, a lot of people would have said before this season that if we SF Giants fans expected much out of Posey, Crawford, Belt, etc. that our glasses must not just be rose-tinted but utterly opaque. But the G's are kicking ass and playing great ball, and it's an amazingly fun team to watch. The young guys are contributing too, but because the vets are playing so well, the youngsters don't have to carry the team yet. And our best prospects are still in the farm system.

That's what the Warriors are trying to do, play for the future while trying to win in the present. I hope it works, but even if it doesn't, it's definitely my favored approach. Because favored, go-for-it-now teams frequently flame out, but when they do they've shot their future, sometimes for a decade.


Baseball is so very different though. The same strategy for baseball and basketball is a bad idea.

A person in data science classes ran the numbers on this a few years back using betting odds to start the season for all 3 main sports, dating back to 1996 (thru 2016), and what the odds were at the halfway point of the season too.

The highest variant to start the season was football
The highest variant in the middle of the season was baseball
The most consistent sport by MILES was basketball

So as for this win but build for the future method...

Football: it can work, but you'll know early on
Baseball: it does work, because the minor leagues are so deep, variance in events is so high, and supposedly due to the longevity of the season affecting fatigue and chronic injury
Basketball: it doesn't, and the main reason for variance was injury

I'm absolutely fine with this team as is, and I think we'll be very competitive. We were given a situation that hardly any team in the NBA is ever given - probably not since the Pistons in 2003 - and we have plenty of examples of the methodology failing, with the Spurs being the most recent/easy example. As a methodology, its deeply flawed. But the truth its just as flawed the other direction. Just make smart moves. If the Pistons traded the #2 pick, maybe they do better than 1 title. However if its a bad trade, maybe they dont win any. Likewise if they drafted anyone in the top 5 besides Darko, maybe they win more than 1 title. And I personally think the Warriors drafted well this year after not drafting well last year, and that combined with our talent should put us squarely in the upper echelon of teams right now.

But I definitely take issue with the idea that, if we're comparing the 2 strategies, that trying to win now while playing for the future is the better one... because that doesn't track. Unless how deep you go into the playoffs is what matters to you.. in that cae I can see it, but that doesnt line up with typical fans who want titles. A team that has a clear all-in mode and a clear rebuild mode has a better chance at winning more titles in a set timeframe than a team trying to do both, simply based on the empirical evidence of the past 25+ years, and likely beyond

Huh. The research you are talking about sounds fascinating, but I'm not sure I'm following the explanation. My intuition would be that basketball would experience the biggest swings/variance due to injury. You only have 12 man rosters, and an injury to one person can drastically change the makeup of your team. That's even more true as the trend goes to very top heavy teams like us, or even moreso the Lakers this past season.

Part of what you posted sounds like it agrees with this intuition:
Basketball: it doesn't, and the main reason for variance was injury

But the other part sounds like the opposite:
The most consistent sport by MILES was basketball

Can you clarify? Or point at the research? Thanks!


Just sent a message asking for the old herokuapp site (we posted all of our projects using that). It basically just pooled the gambling odds for all sports, with 2 variables (title winner, title runner up), at 2 timestamps (day 1 of season, halfway point of season). With 20 years of data across 3 sports, they created an average variable and then determined which sports had the highest standard deviation.. basketball had the lowest. Hopefully I get the exact numbers because it really was a great study

So what you're saying is correct - basketball has the largest variance due to *long-term injury*. The reasoning behind that is that baseball is an extreme grind of 162 games, so there's more minor wear&tear injuries, but its also offset by a larger and more inclusive roster. But the idea is that they aren't playing their best roster every night, just 1 out of every 5 games. And football also has extended rosters and injury expectations that the NBA doesn't. One of the studies I really wanted to do myself if I have the time is injury expectations vs. reality, by sport and then by team. The hard part would be determining the baseline for injury expectations - is it the average amount of injuries in the league? Itd be a tough data cleaning challenge for sure, but would be fun to find out

But circling back - injury variance is the only significant variable that was consistent in the NBA. In baseball, you can make a trade for a star mid season and there's no integrating said player, they are doing the same thing they were. So there can be big shifts in terms of the most powerful teams, easier, in the middle of the season. Football puts a lot more emphasis on coaches/schemes than other sports, and while there's a lot of parity in the NFL, just like with the NBA, you can usually pick out the top 4 teams at the beginning of the season.

So it got a little wordy but basically my point is this:

All 3 sports can be affected by major injury, because even though the NFL/MLB have the rosters to account for it, you cant account for losing a key talent and replacing them with a bench talent. And in the NBA, that's pretty much the only huge variable worth mentioning. In the MLB trades can severely alter the landscape as well. In the NFL, schemes/coaching can alter it as well. But both of those points when applied to the NBA don't hit as hard. And to be clear on expectations, the study doesn't prove that, that was the theoretical takeaway when presented, the study only showed the variance of expectations vs. reality
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#84 » by FNQ » Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:39 am

Chris Porter's Hair wrote:Thanks!


while waiting, take a look at all 3 sports the past 3 years before COVID, opening day odds listed (edit: going to extend to 5 in a few):

NBA winners
2019: Raptors (5th, +1850)
2018: Warriors (1st, -187)
2017: Warriors (1st, -128)
2016: Cavaliers (1st, +280)
2015: Warriors (8th, +2800)

MLB winners
2019: Nationals (9th, +1600)
2018: Red Sox (7th, +1150)
2017: Astros (6th, +1175)
2016: Cubs (1st, +660)
2015: Royals (18th, +3300)

NFL winners
2019: Chiefs (2nd, +600)
2018: Patriots (1st, +600)
2017: Eagles (18th, +4000)
2016: Patriots (1st, +600)
2015: Broncos (6th, +900)

That's why a team like the Suns was so special, they turned Vegas on its ear with the run they had.. but in other sports its much more commonplace for a team to come from lower expectations and turn it up.

Another cool study would be seeing O/U variance in W/L by year... www.sportsoddshistory.com is where all this is sourced btw and they have CSV options for anyone who'd be willing to github a project like that :dontknow:
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#85 » by Warriorfan » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:38 pm

Green with the possibility of a front office job might be a player who plays for an exemption ala Duncan that enables a super star to come in.
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#86 » by clyde21 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:00 pm

hey look, another trade for Simmons thread where the answer is a resounding NO
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#87 » by Ilovethebay » Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:32 pm

clyde21 wrote:hey look, another trade for Simmons thread where the answer is a resounding NO

Yup. Because the majority here is always right 8-)
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#88 » by Coxy » Sun Aug 29, 2021 8:59 pm

Warriorfan wrote:Green with the possibility of a front office job might be a player who plays for an exemption ala Duncan that enables a super star to come in.


I doubt that, but I could be wrong. Draymond isn't a guy that is going to play for something less that what he see's his worth as, and he believes in himself more than any one else.
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#89 » by Warriorfan » Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:09 pm

Coxy wrote:
Warriorfan wrote:Green with the possibility of a front office job might be a player who plays for an exemption ala Duncan that enables a super star to come in.


I doubt that, but I could be wrong. Draymond isn't a guy that is going to play for something less that what he see's his worth as, and he believes in himself more than any one else.


2024 , yes a long ways away, is when I think warriors can target a max free agent.

They can overpay Green in 2023, do 1and 1, underpay 2024, then overpay again so he finishes a warrior.
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#90 » by ChuckDurn » Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:02 pm

If I don't have anything funny to say, can I still have a signature?
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#91 » by HiRez » Wed Sep 1, 2021 5:07 pm

Good, I don't think the Sixers want $33M in salary sitting on the sidelines so maybe they will be forced to discuss more realistic offers. Though I have doubts Morey's asking price will ever get down to what the Warriors are willing to give up. Problem with a Warriors trade (assuming they're even interested) is you have 2 "win now" contending teams trying to make a deal which means neither team really wants to give up vets who can play, nor is it ideal for them to take back rookies and picks which won't help them in the short term.

Philly wants All-Star level shooters and Wiggins, Draymond, Wiseman, Kuminga, even Moody don't help them much there. Poole is the only piece I can see them maybe being interested in but he's hardly a major acquisition. Dubs want playmakers, playoff-level defenders, positional flexibility, and floor spacers and Simmons helps with the most of those but may actively harm the latter.

I put the chances of Simmons coming to the Warriors at only maybe 20% max. Not zero, but not likely either. That being said, there is the possibility of a 3rd team making the package more attractive for everyone involved, but 3 team trades are harder to pull off.
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#92 » by GSWFan1994 » Wed Sep 1, 2021 5:17 pm

If I'm Philly, I hope for Anthony Edwards or De'Aaron Fox as the centerpieces of a trade, plus fillers.

If I'm GSW, I stand pat. The team is good as is.
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#93 » by sonnyhill » Wed Sep 1, 2021 7:06 pm

If the Warriors do seriously entertain a trade with the Sixers, why not propose a trade for Joel Embiid instead of Simmons?

Myers could offer Wiggins, Wiseman and two future #1 draft picks for Embiid and that would solve the issue of "coupling" Embiid with Simmons for the Sixers, give Simmons complimentary pieces to work with in Philly, gets the Warriors an inside presence (which the team has not had since JB Carroll (painful to even post his name)) who is in his prime and ready to "win now (within the Curry-Thompson-Green window)," and allows for both teams to move forward.
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#94 » by HiRez » Wed Sep 1, 2021 7:54 pm

sonnyhill wrote:If the Warriors do seriously entertain a trade with the Sixers, why not propose a trade for Joel Embiid instead of Simmons?

Myers could offer Wiggins, Wiseman and two future #1 draft picks for Embiid and that would solve the issue of "coupling" Embiid with Simmons for the Sixers, give Simmons complimentary pieces to work with in Philly, gets the Warriors an inside presence (which the team has not had since JB Carroll (painful to even post his name)) who is in his prime and ready to "win now (within the Curry-Thompson-Green window)," and allows for both teams to move forward.

The relationship with Simmons looks to be irreparably damaged, so they probably would still have to move him. And the only reason the Warriors might be interested is Simmons' value seems to be substantially depressed right now. That would not be the case with Embiid, who is a top MVP candidate so the price for him would be and should be much higher. For Embiid, even if Philly was willing to trade him, you're probably looking at what they asked for Simmons: A high end All-Star level player (at minimum), lots of promising young players (think ALL our young guys), and top draft picks (which we wouldn't have since with Embiid we'd likely be a top team and thus have end of first round picks only).
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#95 » by Chris Porter's Hair » Wed Sep 1, 2021 9:40 pm

HiRez wrote:Good, I don't think the Sixers want $33M in salary sitting on the sidelines so maybe they will be forced to discuss more realistic offers. Though I have doubts Morey's asking price will ever get down to what the Warriors are willing to give up. Problem with a Warriors trade (assuming they're even interested) is you have 2 "win now" contending teams trying to make a deal which means neither team really wants to give up vets who can play, nor is it ideal for them to take back rookies and picks which won't help them in the short term.

Philly wants All-Star level shooters and Wiggins, Draymond, Wiseman, Kuminga, even Moody don't help them much there. Poole is the only piece I can see them maybe being interested in but he's hardly a major acquisition. Dubs want playmakers, playoff-level defenders, positional flexibility, and floor spacers and Simmons helps with the most of those but may actively harm the latter.

I put the chances of Simmons coming to the Warriors at only maybe 20% max. Not zero, but not likely either. That being said, there is the possibility of a 3rd team making the package more attractive for everyone involved, but 3 team trades are harder to pull off.

That's what I was thinking. Sacramento makes a lot of sense, except that Simmons may raise a stink if traded there. So something vaguely like:
https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7470603
Probably needs some picks moved around to even things out. This assumes Philly realizes how much they're getting backed into a corner and stops being ridiculous. My hunch is we need to give more, and Philly wants more.
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#96 » by floppymoose » Thu Sep 2, 2021 11:10 pm

If this were 2009 I would be all over a Simmons trade. But it isn't. Good teams should not be looking at Simmons. Bad teams that can better afford to take a risk should be looking at him. I think Minny is the obvious ideal spot. Simmons complements KAT better than he does Embiid, because KAT struggles on defense. Plus that team needs a defensive leader and Simmons/Beverley is a huge culture shift for them that could carry into the rest of the team.

DLo plus a first rounder. Sixers get to keep the salary slot alive with DLo just like GS did, and they get a possibly decent 1st rounder to get out of the Simmons mess.
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#97 » by cladden » Fri Sep 3, 2021 4:30 am

How do you guys feel about Sabonis for Simmons? I feel like Indy is going nowhere really with Sabonis and though he's a lot less damaged than Simmons his ceiling is probably a bit lower as well. I would love to see an Embiid/Sabonis frontcourt. I suspect Indy says no or asks for additional stuff because the sixers are desperate but they're both 25 year old all stars who could use a change of scenery.

I realize this doesn't bring either dude here and I'm fine with that. I don't want to give up anything of consequence for Simmons even though I'm higher than most on him. He shot 60% from the line last year. Just do that in the playoffs as well and we're back to thinking of him as a worthy all star.
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#98 » by watch1958 » Fri Sep 3, 2021 7:03 am

floppymoose wrote:If this were 2009 I would be all over a Simmons trade. But it isn't. Good teams should not be looking at Simmons. Bad teams that can better afford to take a risk should be looking at him. I think Minny is the obvious ideal spot. Simmons complements KAT better than he does Embiid, because KAT struggles on defense. Plus that team needs a defensive leader and Simmons/Beverley is a huge culture shift for them that could carry into the rest of the team.

DLo plus a first rounder. Sixers get to keep the salary slot alive with DLo just like GS did, and they get a possibly decent 1st rounder to get out of the Simmons mess.
I wonder how many times D’Lo will be ballast on trade for better players?
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#99 » by Brick Layer » Fri Sep 3, 2021 2:38 pm

sonnyhill wrote:If the Warriors do seriously entertain a trade with the Sixers, why not propose a trade for Joel Embiid instead of Simmons?

Myers could offer Wiggins, Wiseman and two future #1 draft picks for Embiid and that would solve the issue of "coupling" Embiid with Simmons for the Sixers, give Simmons complimentary pieces to work with in Philly, gets the Warriors an inside presence (which the team has not had since JB Carroll (painful to even post his name)) who is in his prime and ready to "win now (within the Curry-Thompson-Green window)," and allows for both teams to move forward.

So you want to give the 76ers a chance to show you why their pre-draft Ben Simmons trade offer was such a wonderful deal for the Warriors? Daryl Morey would open by demanding Stephen Curry, Kuminga. Wiseman, Moody, 4 future unprotected first round draft picks plus 4 unprotected picks swaps + Dray for Embiid and Kevin Love. Cavs trade Love and picks to 76ers to dump Love in a 3 way deal with the Warriors. The 76er keep the picks from Cleveland and trade Love to the desperate Warriors plus other trash filler needed to match salaries they can trade value for and dump onto the desperate Warriors who apparently want Embiid at ANY price
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Re: Do You Now Trade Draymond, Other Pieces/Picks for Simmons Now? 

Post#100 » by lars_rosenberg » Fri Sep 3, 2021 4:03 pm

ILOVEIT wrote:Simmons and Embiid and not much else were bouncing shot away from the finals a couple of years ago.


Did you forget the guy that was on the team and actually made the finals the next year?
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