gst8 wrote:I think he'll take a shorter deal and bet on himself. Even if he doesn't improve a whole lot as a player he'd be valued higher when the cap goes up just by virtue of available money.
This is a good point that not many bring up. People think about $15m, $20m, $25m, or $30m
in a vacuum. I understand why, because it is a lot of money to everyone. But, teams are limited to a cap, can have 14-15 players, and the cap is tied to revenue and especially the national TV deal.
People should think about % of cap instead of a hard # to look at things with the right view. Wiggins 5-year rookie 25% max was $148m/5. Same 5-yr 25% rookie max extension, which Ayton tried to get, is now $177m/5. That is an average of $5m more per season.
Not too long ago, the MLE was $6-8m, the MLE this summer is $11m.
Having said all that, the current NBA TV deal runs thru 2024-25, which means the cap will jump in 2025 summer. Now, the league may smooth out the increase instead of creating another KD to the Warriors situation, but the cap from 2025 summer and on, will be much more and players will get bigger contracts.
I can totally see "some" players aligning their FA to land on 2025 summer, when the pie gets bigger, for a chance to grab a bigger bite.
Question to you all - for a star rookie extension, you give the 25% max blindly (which can go up to 30% for true stars who gets All NBA etc etc). With this mindset, for Poole, the consensus is he's not a 25% max player. What % of team cap do you think he's worth? 20%? 15%? 10%?