Vegas Line: 43.5 Wins

[floppymoose]

Take the over

[DonaldSanders]

Oh wow, I hate sports betting but I might just have to. This is an easy one unless there is a Curry injury, but I guess that's built into the odds.

[CDM_Stats]

Sounds right, I'd take the over as well. With decent health, that should be easily cleared

That said I'd really like to see what Kerr's plan for the rotation is first

[whatisacenter]

I would take the under and if I was doing the line I would put it at 42.5.

[DAWill1128]

Well who’s this team definitely finishing below? We ran into this issue the last two years. We look at our roster without considering the general landscape of the NBA.

In 2023 the Nuggets got healthy, the Lakers improved a ton at the deadline, and the Suns got Durant. We were 6th.

In 2024 people thought going in we had a better roster but others improved a lot more than us and we finished 10th. Almost everyone out West passed us.

OKC - Definitely above us
Dallas - Definitely above us
Denver - Definitely above us
Minnesota - Definitely above us
Suns - Will finish above us
Lakers - Likely above us
Pelicans - Definitely above us
Kings - Likely above us
Clippers - Maybe above us
Grizzlies - Likely above us
Houston - Maybe above us
Spurs - Maybe above us
Portland - Will not finish above us
Jazz - Will not finish above us

I would say they could very well finish 12th at worst and 7th at best.

[Crazy-Canuck]

Well who’s this team definitely finishing below? We ran into this issue the last two years. We look at our roster without considering the general landscape of the NBA.

In 2023 the Nuggets got healthy, the Lakers improved a ton at the deadline, and the Suns got Durant. We were 6th.

In 2024 people thought going in we had a better roster but others improved a lot more than us and we finished 10th. Almost everyone out West passed us.

OKC - Definitely above us
Dallas - Definitely above us
Denver - Definitely above us
Minnesota - Definitely above us
Suns - Will finish above us
Lakers - Likely above us
Pelicans - Definitely above us
Kings - Likely above us
Clippers - Maybe above us
Grizzlies - Likely above us
Houston - Maybe above us
Spurs - Maybe above us
Portland - Will not finish above us
Jazz - Will not finish above us

I would say they could very well finish 12th at worst and 7th at best.

I dont think anyone realized how big a loss Mike brown was. We went from a defensive team with size/length (big switchable wings, not a 7fter) to an offensive team with a lack of size and length at all positions since then. The coaching factor was something we couldn't account for.

[Coxy]

Reminds me of the Monta Ellis led Warrior team days.

[Onus]

Well who’s this team definitely finishing below? We ran into this issue the last two years. We look at our roster without considering the general landscape of the NBA.

In 2023 the Nuggets got healthy, the Lakers improved a ton at the deadline, and the Suns got Durant. We were 6th.

In 2024 people thought going in we had a better roster but others improved a lot more than us and we finished 10th. Almost everyone out West passed us.

OKC - Definitely above us
Dallas - Definitely above us
Denver - Definitely above us
Minnesota - Definitely above us
Suns - Will finish above us
Lakers - Likely above us
Pelicans - Definitely above us
Kings - Likely above us
Clippers - Maybe above us
Grizzlies - Likely above us
Houston - Maybe above us
Spurs - Maybe above us
Portland - Will not finish above us
Jazz - Will not finish above us

I would say they could very well finish 12th at worst and 7th at best.

I don't agree all those teams are above us. The only teams I would say for sure are definitely above us in the west is OKC and MIN.

DAL - most likely is worse than they were last year especially if they try to start Klay. Their defense is going to be atrocious. I can see us being in this tier.
Denver lost their starting sg. Their bench is bad. It's likely they're above us but they were talking about being gassed so it's doubtful that they are going to go all out during the regular season.
Suns I think they had a good off-season but I still don't see where they are going to play defense with a lineup of Jones/Beal/Booker/KD/Nurkic. Possibly above us but I can see us being in this tier.
Lakers we essentially had the same record as them last year and they had impeccable health. They didn't get better at all. We should surpass them.
Pelicans - they should be better with Zion playing center I guess. I think we're in this tier with Dal, Suns, Pels.
Kings trading Barnes for DDR, I guess is an upgrade probably in the same tier.
Clippers got worse so they're going to drop a tier so maybe in the same tier, but I think they'll be at the bottom of the tier since they got a lot of games out of Kawhi last year and I doubt he'll play as many.
Grizzlies should be better likely in the same tier, if their guys can stay healthy.
Houston didn't get better and are relying on young guys figuring it out. But Sengun and Green didn't play well together and they're both playing for an extension. They're in tier below
Spurs they got much better but they're relying a lot on cp who is going to get injured. They're in a tier below
Portland Jazz in a tier below

OKC
MIN

DEN
DAL
PHX
PELS
SAC
GSW

LAC
LAL
MEM

HOU
SAS

POR
UTH

So I think the 3 seed is a possibility while fighting for a play in seed is likely. Think there's a lot of teams in this tier and just a few games will separate 3-11 seeds.

[cpower]

we are very depended on Curry and Draymond.. i would say44 win is about right without a 2nd star

[cdubbz]

Well who’s this team definitely finishing below? We ran into this issue the last two years. We look at our roster without considering the general landscape of the NBA.

In 2023 the Nuggets got healthy, the Lakers improved a ton at the deadline, and the Suns got Durant. We were 6th.

In 2024 people thought going in we had a better roster but others improved a lot more than us and we finished 10th. Almost everyone out West passed us.

OKC - Definitely above us
Dallas - Definitely above us
Denver - Definitely above us
Minnesota - Definitely above us
Suns - Will finish above us
Lakers - Likely above us
Pelicans - Definitely above us
Kings - Likely above us
Clippers - Maybe above us
Grizzlies - Likely above us
Houston - Maybe above us
Spurs - Maybe above us
Portland - Will not finish above us
Jazz - Will not finish above us

I would say they could very well finish 12th at worst and 7th at best.

Rockets & Kings i would move to the definitely above us category.

I think the line is really accurate and I would do a coin flip on this one. If Draymond is locked in and won't be an idiot this season we have a chance. If Kuminga takes a leap to 18ppg, if Wiggins can come back strong and give us AT LEAST 15ppg, & if Podz can take a leap in scoring then i'd go above for sure.

[KevinMcreynolds]

Well who’s this team definitely finishing below? We ran into this issue the last two years. We look at our roster without considering the general landscape of the NBA.

In 2023 the Nuggets got healthy, the Lakers improved a ton at the deadline, and the Suns got Durant. We were 6th.

In 2024 people thought going in we had a better roster but others improved a lot more than us and we finished 10th. Almost everyone out West passed us.

OKC - Definitely above us
Dallas - Definitely above us
Denver - Definitely above us
Minnesota - Definitely above us
Suns - Will finish above us
Lakers - Likely above us
Pelicans - Definitely above us
Kings - Likely above us
Clippers - Maybe above us
Grizzlies - Likely above us
Houston - Maybe above us
Spurs - Maybe above us
Portland - Will not finish above us
Jazz - Will not finish above us

I would say they could very well finish 12th at worst and 7th at best.

I dont think anyone realized how big a loss Mike brown was. We went from a defensive team with size/length (big switchable wings, not a 7fter) to an offensive team with a lack of size and length at all positions since then. The coaching factor was something we couldn't account for.

in 2022, GPII and Wiggs were playing lockdown D and Looney had his best year. I think lacking those factors was more of the difference the following year than losing Mike Brown.

[KevinMcreynolds]

Well who’s this team definitely finishing below? We ran into this issue the last two years. We look at our roster without considering the general landscape of the NBA.

In 2023 the Nuggets got healthy, the Lakers improved a ton at the deadline, and the Suns got Durant. We were 6th.

In 2024 people thought going in we had a better roster but others improved a lot more than us and we finished 10th. Almost everyone out West passed us.

OKC - Definitely above us
Dallas - Definitely above us
Denver - Definitely above us
Minnesota - Definitely above us
Suns - Will finish above us
Lakers - Likely above us
Pelicans - Definitely above us
Kings - Likely above us
Clippers - Maybe above us
Grizzlies - Likely above us
Houston - Maybe above us
Spurs - Maybe above us
Portland - Will not finish above us
Jazz - Will not finish above us

I would say they could very well finish 12th at worst and 7th at best.

-Pelicans definitely above us is too presumptive since they're reliant on a player that is rarely healthy and they've never really proven anything
-Lakers, Kings, and Grizzlies are all in the same tier as us, so saying "likely" above us is a stretch. Lakers probably had the worst offseason of any team in the conference.
-There's no maybe with the Spurs, they're ceiling is probably 35 wins

[CDM_Stats]

in 2022, GPII and Wiggs were playing lockdown D and Looney had his best year. I think lacking those factors was more of the difference the following year than losing Mike Brown.

Or what if Wiggins and Looney were put into great positions based on their skillsets and havent been since Mike Brown left?

Something a few of us have been painstakingly pointing out for 2 years? I know people like narratives about intangibles like laziness or heart or whatever, but there's nothing to suggest that either actually got worse. Wiggins is still contesting at around the exact same rate as 21-22 and Looney, despite the optics, is moving just as fast. But Wiggins on-ball means no Wiggins off-ball, which hurts the defense, and Looney only works when there arent multiple bad defenders on the court

Since Brown left, our defensive scheme has been awful, mostly to accommodate Klay and other offense-only guys at the expense of the defense.. how have those results gone?

[HiRez]

A team built around an aging Curry and Green is not built for the regular season, it's built to barely squeeze into the playoffs (even that is a dicey proposition) and give them an outside (maybe very outside) shot at finding some magic for 16-28 games in the playoffs. 43.5 actually sounds a bit generous to me, just because I think rest and injury will be factors, plus some youthful mistakes on the other side, Kerr will lose them some games with his famous "gut" feeling on lineups, they'll get dominated by larger teams, and who the hell knows where Andrew Wiggins' head is at?

As currently constructed I'm saying 41 wins, barely .500, and even that might be generous. Vet savvy only goes so far when you have all these young, rangy, athletic, and skilled teams who keep throwing stuff at you until you wear out. Not to mention coaches — unlike Kerr — who don't overthink it and aren't afraid to play their best lineups and run their most efficient plays as often as possible.

[HiRez]

-Pelicans definitely above us is too presumptive since they're reliant on a player that is rarely healthy and they've never really proven anything

You would think so, but they were 7-5 last year when Zion didn't play, almost identical to their win % when he did play. Small sample size and all of course (70 games vs. 12 games). And granted, they got swept in the playoffs.

[all left]

It is curious that no one has mentioned any of the Warrior's new additions in this discussion. Melton, if healthy, is a very good defensive addition, and could solve the point of attack issues, allowing Wiggins to move off the ball. He also is not a liability on offense, should hit threes at a reasonable rate with the space made available by playing next to Curry. (CDM-- I would be interested to know if the advanced metrics for Melton match up with the eye test). Slo Mo also is a good and versatile defender, and would allow a second unit where he slots into a somewhat Draymond-like role, keeping both defensive and offensive principles more consistent across lineups. I I were running things Hield would never sniff the starting lineup, playing mainly on second unit otherwise defense-heavy rotations.

The lineup management problem obvious to all is Kuminga/Wiggins and who starts. I am hoping the addition of Stackhouse as the defensive assistant will add a loud voice for putting defensive principles first, so the lineup choices are made with that in mind. If that worked out I would go with the over.

[wco81]

44 wins, if that is in the play-in territory, would be tread milling territory, not bad enough to get a high lottery pick.

Of course they could get lucky and pick a generational player in the mid teens but unlikely.

If they hover around 7-12 at the ASB, they need to shut down Curry and Draymond, possibly trade away players like JK if some team wants a rental, try to get at least into the top 10, if not the top 6.

Suppose to be a loaded draft class, right?

[HiRez]

It's not like they have a collection of all terrible players, but without consolidating a lot of this talent for Markkanen or whoever, it's hard to see how it can all fit together cohesively. Wiggins/Kuminga minutes/combination still needs to be solved, Moody looks like he'd get buried yet again, probably deeper than he ever has been, your centers are TJD, an undersized second year player who doesn't shoot, Looney who looks even older and slower and less athletic than he ever has (and also undersized), rookie Post who is 7 feet and can shoot, but doesn't play much defense or provide any rim protection, and in a pinch, Draymond, who is getting old and is extremely undersized. GP2 is probably washed and can't be relied on to stay healthy anyway. Hield is only going to entice Kerr to play 3-guard lineups more, but at a lower efficiency than when they had prime Steph & Klay (& S-Dot, etc.). I see a lot of the same old thing of guards chucking up 3s as their only option to compete and falling short while they get pounded on the other end by efficient dunks and layups, free throws, and yes, even 3s, since none of our defenders can consistently lock down anyone on the perimeter, and over-help inside and can't get back to cover (or worse, foul because they have to jump).

[EvanZ]

Fire up the treadmill

But hey, I do like Killian Tillie LMAO

Read on Twitter

[Onus]

Fire up the treadmill

But hey, I do like Killian Tillie LMAO

Read on Twitter

I do like Killian Tillie and he would be a stretch big. But a trade or cut would need to happen for this to even mean anything.