warriors plus minus - updated Jan 7

[cpower]

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/warriors-plus-minus-leader

Great:

Curry team high +87, Green 3rd +71.
Podz 2nd +78, despite terrible shooting
Hield + 57, hot start

Solid:
Looney +47, crazy rebounder
Wiggins +46, much better than last year
JK +45, solid scorer

Bad

TDJ: +26，terrible considering he plays with starters a lot
Moody +11, just not able to make normal rotations

[Jester_]

podz being #2 is shocking

[The-Power]

Despite his poor shooting, line-ups with either Steph or Podz – or both, over a small sample – work really well thus far this season. It's the line-ups without either one of the two that do not fare well at all. It's going to be interesting to see how that changes over the course of the season.

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612744&Season=2024-25&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=201939,1641764

[Twinkie defense]

podz being #2 is shocking

Not shocking to me at all - his minutes are down, largely because the Warriors' guard rotation is so deep this season, but he's still been an impactful player out there. Despite the hate, he's the same player as last season.

[Twinkie defense]

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/warriors-plus-minus-leader

Great:

Curry team high +87, Green 3rd +71.
Podz 2nd +78, despite terrible shooting
Hield + 57, hot start

Solid:
Looney +47, crazy rebounder
Wiggins +46, much better than last year
JK +45, solid scorer

Bad

TDJ: +26，terrible considering he plays with starters a lot
Moody +11, just not able to make normal rotations

It's a statement on the Warriors' strength this season that even the "bad" players are a net positive plus/minus.

[SpreeS]

podz being #2 is shocking

.

He had the best total +/- and last year. So it isn't shocking. The guy does something good even w/o his bad shooting.

[Jester_]

podz being #2 is shocking

.

He had the best total +/- and last year. So it isn't shocking. The guy does something good even w/o his bad shooting.

he has looked ass to me compared to last year. but maybe i've been too fixated on his scoring

[cpower]

podz being #2 is shocking

.

He had the best total +/- and last year. So it isn't shocking. The guy does something good even w/o his bad shooting.

he has looked ass to me compared to last year. but maybe i've been too fixated on his scoring

he is running a bench that absolutely crushing other team's bench.. not many teams have SloMo JK Hield kind of talent from 2nd unit....I do suspect his number wont look as good in a much top heavy team

[Onus]

podz being #2 is shocking

.

He had the best total +/- and last year. So it isn't shocking. The guy does something good even w/o his bad shooting.

he has looked ass to me compared to last year. but maybe i've been too fixated on his scoring

He's a decent defender, gets extra possessions with his offensive rebounding, takes charges. He does all the little things that help you win games. His biggest issue is that he lost his confidence in his shooting. I'm really not sure how good of a shooter he actually is. He wasn't a good ft shooter in college. Most of his 3s in college were off the dribble (self created). He doesn't seem like a great spot up shooter unfortunately. That's been the biggest surprise to me that he doesn't appear to be a real shooter. But I knew he would be an impact player because he does everything else. He moves on offense, he can dribble and pass. He understands help defense and he gets extra possessions either through rebounds or charges and he's a competitor. It's really just his shot that hasn't translated, but that's the thing that is easiest to see.

[CDM_Stats]

It's raw +/-

Podz is not playing well. He's on the court when others play well, yet is actively not a part of it. What folks are doing here is the opposite of analytics.. taking one raw number and then contorting to explain why its legitimate. Not APM, not RAPM, not even EPM.. just PM

To that end - his shooting has obviously been worse. But it goes way deeper - he's shooting a way higher rate of contested shots. More unforced errors. Less charges. Worse defensively. Another poor year at the line, but still even worse than last year. He is, nearly across the board, worse than last year

[Jester_]

It's raw +/-

Podz is not playing well. He's on the court when others play well, yet is actively not a part of it. What folks are doing here is the opposite of analytics.. taking one raw number and then contorting to explain why its legitimate. Not APM, not RAPM, not even EPM.. just PM

To that end - his shooting has obviously been worse. But it goes way deeper - he's shooting a way higher rate of contested shots. More unforced errors. Less charges. Worse defensively. Another poor year at the line, but still even worse than last year. He is, nearly across the board, worse than last year

yeah I don't have any numbers but this tracks better against what we're seeing. i don't see how you can watch podz this year and declare him a high impact player he's looked notably worse on most fronts

[cpower]

It's raw +/-

Podz is not playing well. He's on the court when others play well, yet is actively not a part of it. What folks are doing here is the opposite of analytics.. taking one raw number and then contorting to explain why its legitimate. Not APM, not RAPM, not even EPM.. just PM

To that end - his shooting has obviously been worse. But it goes way deeper - he's shooting a way higher rate of contested shots. More unforced errors. Less charges. Worse defensively. Another poor year at the line, but still even worse than last year. He is, nearly across the board, worse than last year

yeah i am aware this is not RAPM which i currently dont have access to but there are info you can get from the raw data. For example TDJ has a pretty good BPM number but the plus minus raw number shows that he has been bad this season

[CDM_Stats]

Neither BPM (boxscore weighted PM) or raw PM are good ways to evaluate though.. thats the point. It sets up failure as they are very limited in what they can explain, and are a fart in the wind compared to big picture stuff

[floppymoose]

Some on/off data. The net ratings here are the differential with the team mean, not a raw +-. Just about everyone is winning their minutes. Negative numbers here just mean below average for the team, not for the league. (And for defense pts per 100, negative is good and positive is worse.)

Offense: Pts Per 100 Poss


Defense: Pts Per 100 Poss


Team Defensive Rebounding %


Team Offensive Rebounding %



Some interesting facts....

TJD is not really helping GSW on rebounding as much as I thought.

Dray really juices the offense but so far at the expense of defense. I'm guessing its the turnovers plus maybe playing some smallblal 5 against good bigs? Not sure.

Melton bigtime on defensive glass. Moody good there too.

Buddy helps the defense, and also offensive boards.

Non-surprises:
Curry helps the O; Curry helps the rebounding, Podz helps the rebounding.

JK has to improve on rebounding to get to the next level.


Data Source:

Searches like this one: https://www.pbpstats.com/on-off/nba/stat?Season=2024-25&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&TeamId=1610612744&Stat=DefReboundPct&Leverage=Medium,High,VeryHigh

Note that I excluded "low leverage", which is an attempt at excluding garbage time. I dont think it removed that much data but you can play with the queries if you don't like my approach.

[floppymoose]

One big takeaway from above that I pretty much already knew from the eye test: GSW is a good rebounding team because of their guards, not because of their bigs.

[floppymoose]

Also, I freakin love GP2

[CDM_Stats]

Some interesting facts....

TJD is not really helping GSW on rebounding as much as I thought.

Dray really juices the offense but so far at the expense of defense. I'm guessing its the turnovers plus maybe playing some smallblal 5 against good bigs? Not sure.

Melton bigtime on defensive glass. Moody good there too.

Buddy helps the defense, and also offensive boards.

Note that I excluded "low leverage", which is an attempt at excluding garbage time. I dont think it removed that much data but you can play with the queries if you don't like my approach.

TJD I think we all knew about by now, he's a space rebounder but not athletic or strong enough to be good at it

Dray actually thrives in the smallball defense more than not, his biggest anchor is TJD defensively. Then SloMo, then Looney

Did they define what low-leverage means? Every place seems to define it differently

[floppymoose]

Did they define what low-leverage means? Every place seems to define it differently

All I got is this: https://darrylblackport.com/posts/2020-12-22-pbpstats-leverage/

One thing to note is that if you change the leverage in your search, you can see the new number of minutes for each player. That tells you how many minutes got included or excluded by your change. From playing with that I observed there is only 1 "very high" leverage minute of data for GSW so far this year.

[CDM_Stats]

Did they define what low-leverage means? Every place seems to define it differently

All I got is this: https://darrylblackport.com/posts/2020-12-22-pbpstats-leverage/

One thing to note is that if you change the leverage in your search, you can see the new number of minutes for each player. That tells you how many minutes got included or excluded by your change. From playing with that I observed there is only 1 "very high" leverage minute of data for GSW so far this year.

its a really good way of doing it.. I might nitpick that the threshold for low leverage is a little too low, ironically. In their example, being down 13 with 3:15 is technically low leverage, and as a Warrior fan (either being up 13 or down 13)... no it isnt

But overall its a really good formula that I'm definitely going to steal and apply

[Twinkie defense]

he is running a bench that absolutely crushing other team's bench.. not many teams have SloMo JK Hield kind of talent from 2nd unit....I do suspect his number wont look as good in a much top heavy team

But SloMo JK Hield all have a worse plus/minus than Podz