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Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 5:17 am**

New raptor rankings by Neil Paine. Just put gsw in the search table and our rankings will pop up.

Eyes match the stats for the most part.

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast?open=false#%C2%A7nba-estimated-raptor-leaderboard

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 5:31 am**

Crazy-Canuck wrote:New raptor rankings by Neil Paine. Just put gsw in the search table and our rankings will pop up.

Eyes match the stats for the most part.

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast?open=false#%C2%A7nba-estimated-raptor-leaderboard

This is interesting, sorting by total eRAptor -- and matches why occasionally I throw Draymond in the trade machine instead of Wiggins. Wiggins is younger, and Draymond shows some signs of decline this year (unfortunately, Draymond helps Wiggins). Probably not the move to trade Dray, but I do notice sometimes Dray does mess up the offense despite shooting well from 3 this year. You notice him not getting a lot of respect, turns the ball over in live ball situations, and the NBA seems at a peak in terms of needing everyone to either be a threat, or if they aren't be able to be a supreme rebounder/lob guy. Looney some games does look better than Dray, some of that being a functional role a rebounder/put back guy that doesn't turn the ball over and sets bone crushing screens.

Podz, JK, TJD, and Moody filling out most of the bottom hurts. Big whiff this off-season not making a move. EPM paints a slightly different picture, but I agree with this general ranking so far.

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 5:37 am**

DonaldSanders wrote:
Crazy-Canuck wrote:New raptor rankings by Neil Paine. Just put gsw in the search table and our rankings will pop up.

Eyes match the stats for the most part.

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast?open=false#%C2%A7nba-estimated-raptor-leaderboard

This is interesting, sorting by total eRAptor -- and matches why occasionally I throw Draymond in the trade machine instead of Wiggins. Wiggins is younger, and Draymond shows some signs of decline this year (unfortunately, Draymond helps Wiggins). Probably not the move to trade Dray, but I do notice sometimes Dray does mess up the offense despite shooting well from 3 this year. You notice him not getting a lot of respect, turns the ball over in live ball situations, and the NBA seems at a peak in terms of needing everyone to either be a threat, or if they aren't be able to be a supreme rebounder/lob guy. Looney some games does look better than Dray, some of that being a functional role a rebounder/put back guy that doesn't turn the ball over and sets bone crushing screens.

Podz, JK, TJD, and Moody filling out most of the bottom hurts. Big whiff this off-season not making a move. EPM paints a slightly different picture, but I agree with this general ranking so far.

I think this why schroeder will help alot. Less of an Onus on dray facilitating, it's the turnovers and ft shooting that are hurting him.

Steph, heild, wiggs, dray, and schroeder like like a legit death line up (4 best offensive player and our best defensive player) with loon to start games.

Podz has been bad.
And giving jk a monster usg isn't good either.
Kills me to say it, but moody has stunk.

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 6:11 am**

Crazy-Canuck wrote:I think this why schroeder will help alot. Less of an Onus on dray facilitating, it's the turnovers and ft shooting that are hurting him.

Steph, heild, wiggs, dray, and schroeder like like a legit death line up (4 best offensive player and our best defensive player) with loon to start games.

Podz has been bad.
And giving jk a monster usg isn't good either.
Kills me to say it, but moody has stunk.

I suppose you can have Dray sit in the corner, but Dray handling a lot has always been a staple. Dray and CP3 were an odd fit, as both guys needed the ball. Maybe it can work with Dennis, but Dray will have to continue knocking down corner 3s. Sometimes in the trade machine I send Dray out for a scorer-type, then try to trade Podz/filler + pick for a good defensive C than can finish around the rim (someone like Kessler). If you could have a combo of Kessler-Looney that would be pretty nice rotation. Just spitballing of course, I'm not seriously saying let's put Dray on the block. My mind just explores every option as we're running out of them.

Podz/JK no need to beat a dead horse at this point. Moody, I agree, has sadly been bad. I wonder if his recent injury has been a factor at all, at least part of the season? I sure hope so. Last year I still remember the Knick game where he started and did a great job on Brunson for part of the game, looks like a different player despite playing more consistently.

I will also note that 12 of the top 25 are bench players on low sample size, so Curry isn't quite as far down as it might have seemed if one just sorted for GSW without looking closer.

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 5:59 pm**

Crazy-Canuck wrote:New raptor rankings by Neil Paine. Just put gsw in the search table and our rankings will pop up.

Eyes match the stats for the most part.

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast?open=false#%C2%A7nba-estimated-raptor-leaderboard

Its pretty good for a metric, but the reason why I dont love metrics at all is they cant assign value to the absence of value

For example: GP2 is a -0.1 on offense. While a lot of that has to do with +/-, more of it has to do with him limiting exposure - missed shots, TOS, etc - because he doesnt touch the ball a ton. Metrics have a hard time understanding players like this and their impact on the rest of the team, who will get lower offensive grades because GP2 basically just dunks, rebounds, and misses 3s

One of my favorite things about the SS model is that you can use it to swap minutes and lineup subs (offline of course, requires a 2nd program) and predict how the team would look if they used certain pairings a lot more.. obviously guys like Moody, TJD and Podz are not helping much and JK is being overplayed like crazy, but the biggest issue is that our clearly, by far and away best lineup of Curry/Hield/Wiggins/Dray/Looney is being played sparingly, and for some reason Buddy's usage goes from near 30% down to single digits when they play

If Kerr could address that huge domino, this team could really turn it around

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 6:51 pm**

CDM_Stats wrote:
Crazy-Canuck wrote:New raptor rankings by Neil Paine. Just put gsw in the search table and our rankings will pop up.

Eyes match the stats for the most part.

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast?open=false#%C2%A7nba-estimated-raptor-leaderboard

Its pretty good for a metric, but the reason why I dont love metrics at all is they cant assign value to the absence of value

For example: GP2 is a -0.1 on offense. While a lot of that has to do with +/-, more of it has to do with him limiting exposure - missed shots, TOS, etc - because he doesnt touch the ball a ton. Metrics have a hard time understanding players like this and their impact on the rest of the team, who will get lower offensive grades because GP2 basically just dunks, rebounds, and misses 3s

One of my favorite things about the SS model is that you can use it to swap minutes and lineup subs (offline of course, requires a 2nd program) and predict how the team would look if they used certain pairings a lot more.. obviously guys like Moody, TJD and Podz are not helping much and JK is being overplayed like crazy, but the biggest issue is that our clearly, by far and away best lineup of Curry/Hield/Wiggins/Dray/Looney is being played sparingly, and for some reason Buddy's usage goes from near 30% down to single digits when they play

If Kerr could address that huge domino, this team could really turn it around

The lineup data is saying the curry/hield/wigs/dray quarter is great but with GP2 in Loon's spot, they're a +43 net rating, 110 vs 67 offense/defense rating. With Kyle in Loon's place, they're a +90. (129o/39d). With Loon, they're a +24 (145/121).

There's small sample size in all of of these lineups as those 4 have only played 169 total possessions (and are a +28). The loon/gp2/kyle lineups only have 20/50/17 possessions, respectively. With such a small sample size, why are you so confident it's loon that should be the 5th starter? Or, more importantly, the 5th closer?

I don't really disagree with the original premise (Loon at 5 sounds more sustainable, doesn't force dray to play the 5, and has historical precedent). That said, it does seem like the secret is to play those 4 as much as possible and outside of JK and Melton, everyone else is killing it as the 5th member of the group (even podz, albeit in 3 possessions).

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 7:06 pm**

definitely tracks

also lol@ anyone who thinks Jimmy won't make us way better

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 7:17 pm**

Jester_ wrote:definitely tracks

also lol@ anyone who thinks Jimmy won't make us way better

Lots of folks treating us like it's still 2022 and Steph/Dray aren't aging. Load up one last time, Steph with another offensive star was amazingly effective anytime I've seen it. Imagine actually having someone who draws enough attention that Steph gets open looks. Steph is still extremely effective, I'd love to see us maximize the last few years.

But blah blah I don't like the contract, etc. while we max out at like a 5 seed 1st/2nd round team and sunset the dynasty.

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 7:29 pm**

Jester_ wrote:definitely tracks

also lol@ anyone who thinks Jimmy won't make us way better

Jimmy/Dray at PF/C would be incredible.

The problem is both teams are at or over apron so they can't take back more money. And the Warriors would have to send out more money in order to sign minimum contracts because they can only get to Jimmy's salary by combining players...

Example... Wiggins, Kyle, GP2, Kuminga can make the numbers work for Warriors and give them a couple million to cover for minimum players.... but Heat can't take back 1 more dollar than they send out. And if you adjust it to make it where it works for Heat, then the Warriors don't have enough money to fill their roster with minimums.

Maybe you could get crazy and find 3rd teams to take some Warrior salary.... but more than likely the latest CBA (thanks CJ :noway:

) makes us impossible trade partners.

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 7:33 pm**

DonaldSanders wrote:
Jester_ wrote:definitely tracks

also lol@ anyone who thinks Jimmy won't make us way better

Lots of folks treating us like it's still 2022 and Steph/Dray aren't aging. Load up one last time, Steph with another offensive star was amazingly effective anytime I've seen it. Imagine actually having someone who draws enough attention that Steph gets open looks. Steph is still extremely effective, I'd love to see us maximize the last few years.

But blah blah I don't like the contract, etc. while we max out at like a 5 seed 1st/2nd round team and sunset the dynasty.

Jimmy is 35. We're going to run a geriatric lineup of Curry (36), Jimmy (35), Green (34) minus Wiggins + other usable players in the rotation. Jimmy would've been nice if we had CP3s contract still but we don't which means Wiggins has to go. So at 35 Butler is going to guard the other team's best wing/guard and be the 2nd option for the rest of the season without breaking down?

Add in we'd have to find a way to sign minimum contracts without going over the apron. It's just not feasible.

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 8:25 pm**

where is Podz , should I go from worst to best?

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 8:38 pm**

vvoland wrote:The lineup data is saying the curry/hield/wigs/dray quarter is great but with GP2 in Loon's spot, they're a +43 net rating, 110 vs 67 offense/defense rating. With Kyle in Loon's place, they're a +90. (129o/39d). With Loon, they're a +24 (145/121).

There's small sample size in all of of these lineups as those 4 have only played 169 total possessions (and are a +28). The loon/gp2/kyle lineups only have 20/50/17 possessions, respectively. With such a small sample size, why are you so confident it's loon that should be the 5th starter? Or, more importantly, the 5th closer?

I don't really disagree with the original premise (Loon at 5 sounds more sustainable, doesn't force dray to play the 5, and has historical precedent). That said, it does seem like the secret is to play those 4 as much as possible and outside of JK and Melton, everyone else is killing it as the 5th member of the group (even podz, albeit in 3 possessions).

The *raw* lineup data

That doesnt factor in who they are playing against, but more important it doesnt factor in likelihood, which is tested best by contested shot%, boxout % - things that typically level out towards winning. There will always be factors have lineups zig-zagging ahead or behind, but if factored for the things that usually point to consistent winning, that is the lineup. But none of that is how I evaluate - its based on what style wins for the team historically and which peripheral stats are key, along with which player combos increase the likelihood of success.

Example - GP2, Looney, Wiggins, Dray and SloMo comprise the best defenders. Basic numbers say thats who you should play in an all-defense lineup. Common sense says that you are going to get diminishing returns. So you'd ideally take a couple players out of there, and replace them with guys who's weaknesses are overshadowed by the remaining players' strengths

With Curry/Hield/Wiggins/Dray/Looney the team has the best combination of offensive prowess at 3 levels, defensive prowess at 3 levels, and rebounding. Its not particularly close either, even accounting for smallball lineups. And that's minute for minute, not even factoring in length of shift or weighted playing time averages (less than 10m is a disadvantage bc not consistently in game, over 25 is a disadvantage due to fatigue)

These are all general numbers though, not exact formulas, but gives an idea of how in-depth it is. Analytics is not about reading results and saying do it again, its about finding out why those results happened and projecting forward

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 10:58 pm**

CDM_Stats wrote:
vvoland wrote:The lineup data is saying the curry/hield/wigs/dray quarter is great but with GP2 in Loon's spot, they're a +43 net rating, 110 vs 67 offense/defense rating. With Kyle in Loon's place, they're a +90. (129o/39d). With Loon, they're a +24 (145/121).

There's small sample size in all of of these lineups as those 4 have only played 169 total possessions (and are a +28). The loon/gp2/kyle lineups only have 20/50/17 possessions, respectively. With such a small sample size, why are you so confident it's loon that should be the 5th starter? Or, more importantly, the 5th closer?

I don't really disagree with the original premise (Loon at 5 sounds more sustainable, doesn't force dray to play the 5, and has historical precedent). That said, it does seem like the secret is to play those 4 as much as possible and outside of JK and Melton, everyone else is killing it as the 5th member of the group (even podz, albeit in 3 possessions).

The *raw* lineup data

That doesnt factor in who they are playing against, but more important it doesnt factor in likelihood, which is tested best by contested shot%, boxout % - things that typically level out towards winning. There will always be factors have lineups zig-zagging ahead or behind, but if factored for the things that usually point to consistent winning, that is the lineup. But none of that is how I evaluate - its based on what style wins for the team historically and which peripheral stats are key, along with which player combos increase the likelihood of success.

Example - GP2, Looney, Wiggins, Dray and SloMo comprise the best defenders. Basic numbers say thats who you should play in an all-defense lineup. Common sense says that you are going to get diminishing returns. So you'd ideally take a couple players out of there, and replace them with guys who's weaknesses are overshadowed by the remaining players' strengths

With Curry/Hield/Wiggins/Dray/Looney the team has the best combination of offensive prowess at 3 levels, defensive prowess at 3 levels, and rebounding. Its not particularly close either, even accounting for smallball lineups. And that's minute for minute, not even factoring in length of shift or weighted playing time averages (less than 10m is a disadvantage bc not consistently in game, over 25 is a disadvantage due to fatigue)

These are all general numbers though, not exact formulas, but gives an idea of how in-depth it is. Analytics is not about reading results and saying do it again, its about finding out why those results happened and projecting forward

In theory, most of those things will be tempered by a large enough sample size. This is probably the most frustrating thing with the team so far: such a small sample for those "core 4." Even with JK as the 5th, yes, it's looked awful so far but I wonder what would happen if that was the lineup for more than 30 possessions over the course of the first quarter of the season.

The Loon at 5 lineup does see to answer a lot of the questions the team would have w/ Dray at 5. I seem to remember you've been a big fan of Dray at C, does the recent data make you think it's worth staying w/ dray at 4?

Posted: **Tue Dec 17, 2024 11:31 pm**

CDM_Stats wrote:For example: GP2 is a -0.1 on offense. While a lot of that has to do with +/-, more of it has to do with him limiting exposure - missed shots, TOS, etc - because he doesnt touch the ball a ton. Metrics have a hard time understanding players like this and their impact on the rest of the team, who will get lower offensive grades because GP2 basically just dunks, rebounds, and misses 3s

This is why i focus on on/off metrics. I really miss the old 82game data where you could see team-level data for the on/off of a single player. With that you would see the effect you are talking about.

I never look at rebounding numbers for a player to determine if they are a good rebounder, for instance. i look at team rebounding when the player is on vs the player is off.

Posted: **Wed Dec 18, 2024 3:08 am**

floppymoose wrote:
CDM_Stats wrote:For example: GP2 is a -0.1 on offense. While a lot of that has to do with +/-, more of it has to do with him limiting exposure - missed shots, TOS, etc - because he doesnt touch the ball a ton. Metrics have a hard time understanding players like this and their impact on the rest of the team, who will get lower offensive grades because GP2 basically just dunks, rebounds, and misses 3s

This is why i focus on on/off metrics. I really miss the old 82game data where you could see team-level data for the on/off of a single player. With that you would see the effect you are talking about.

I never look at rebounding numbers for a player to determine if they are a good rebounder, for instance. i look at team rebounding when the player is on vs the player is off.

They've decimated that page for sure.. I think stathead had the same thing at some point? They may have phased it out or maybe its under their paywall now.. the on/off splits on bbref are OK, sometimes have to do your own math though

Posted: **Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:17 am**

Good grief, I can't believe some of you want to trade for Butler :lol:

Wiggins would be going out in the trade and probably JK as well.

They would lose depth and get older....Steph and Dray aren't a player away from competing for anything.

Posted: **Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:03 pm**

Steph +3.9
Melton +2.8
Wiggins +2.8
GP2 +2.0
Hield +1.3
Looney +0.6
Anderson +0.5
Green -0.2
TDJ -0.5
Waters -0.6
Podz -0.6
JK -1.3
Moody -3.6

Posted: **Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:25 pm**

whatisacenter wrote:Good grief, I can't believe some of you want to trade for Butler

Wiggins would be going out in the trade and probably JK as well.

They would lose depth and get older....Steph and Dray aren't a player away from competing for anything.

yup

The only chance the team has is depth stepping up, which means putting them in the best position to be successful. And even then its still a snowball in hell, but it could at least start propping up those players' value if and when the team decides to pack it in

Posted: **Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:36 pm**

cpower wrote:Steph +3.9 <---- being asked by Kerr to do more than he ever has, makes no sense. MJax level planning
Melton +2.8 <--- RIP
Wiggins +2.8 <--- keeping the team afloat
GP2 +2.0 <--- great reserve
Hield +1.3 <--- great w/starters, horrible w/bench, guess where he's playing most?
Looney +0.6 <--- needs to play with Curry/Hield more, creates off-ball space that they can't
Anderson +0.5 <--- should be direct backup at C
Green -0.2 <--- defensive effort falling off a lot, but peripherals not in the tank yet
TDJ -0.5 <--- out of rotation
Waters -0.6 <--- him and Moody should be fighting for the same 10-15mpg role
Podz -0.6 <--- optimistic with him at SG again
JK -1.3 <--- please dont Maggette him, he's a bench scorer until he proves otherwise
Moody -3.6 <--- after first 5 games went into the crapper, but would bet on him getting close to neutral by years end

Posted: **Fri Dec 20, 2024 11:36 pm**

whatisacenter wrote:Good grief, I can't believe some of you want to trade for Butler

Wiggins would be going out in the trade and probably JK as well.

They would lose depth and get older....Steph and Dray aren't a player away from competing for anything.

All I've said is that we should consider him or another star if we want to have even a small chance of going somewhere after we digest the trade for Dennis. I've also thrown out Zion. Basically I felt we needed to try for some kind of home run, because this team as-is wasn't it. It seemed like Dennis wasn't going to cut it, so if you wanted more, then you'd need to go get more. At least with Zion you get feast (ha ha) or famine, if he can play you might go far, otherwise you get a nice draft pick (obv not if you traded it away, so got to limit picks).

I know you have wanted to just move on from the OG core, which to some extent I get, but personally I could never ever trade Steph unless he asked for it. Draymond I don't have the same attachment after all the BS he's pulled, plus he really looks like he is going to be in meltdown mode if things don't go the Dubs way. I've been throwing Draymond in the trade lately on the trade machine instead of Wiggins.

Anyway, none of my trades have included multiple picks or swaps, and never for anything beyond '27 (mostly the '25). The reality is that the Warriors aren't going to shut the whole thing down, so give Steph some kind of fighting chance (however small) while not mortgaging the future, and perhaps a chance to rehabilitate a player. There aren't a lot of great options, so I'm discussing things that I know don't have some huge chance of success, I just think it's better to try something else than the route we are currently on, which seems doomed.

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