Warriors have a Steve Kerr problem

CDM_Stats · Post #1 » by **CDM_Stats** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 5:29 am

Look, I dont think the team is a contender even when they are maxing out. Or at least its a slim as hell chance. But it would be just super if we came anywhere near what that max is. And I know, every teams' fans complain about their coach, but I'm having a really tough time seeing anything that Kerr is

I remember defending him so much from 2014-22, thinking he understood the big picture because he stuck to his guns and somehow it was aligned with the metrics, tracking and a lot of advanced stats. But the past 3 years it has been non-stop baffling, and when he takes a step forward in some way, he'll immediately take a step back in another. It's random poop flinging and I just dont see it changing

Crazy-Canuck · Post #2 » by **Crazy-Canuck** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 5:36 am

He is still experimenting. Now trying to integrate Schroeder into the motion offense and playing with steph is extending that experimentation window.

Imo, only thing kerr knows right now is that steph and wiggins are starting.

cpower · Post #3 » by **cpower** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 5:45 am

It's not his problem....its a talent issue. There is no talent on this team that can play consistent basketball - especially on the offensive end. Hield/JK is clearly not the solution and FO is not going to do anything about it.

Crazy-Canuck · Post #4 » by **Crazy-Canuck** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 5:48 am

cpower wrote:It's not his problem....its a talent issue. There is no talent on this team that can play consistent basketball - especially on the offensive end. Hield/JK is clearly not the solution and FO is not going to do anything about it.

You need to put the players in roles to succeed though. Kerr hasn't been doing that this season.

CDM_Stats · Post #5 » by **CDM_Stats** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 5:50 am

cpower wrote:It's not his problem....its a talent issue. There is no talent on this team that can play consistent basketball - especially on the offensive end. Hield/JK is clearly not the solution and FO is not going to do anything about it.

Curry/Hield/Wiggins/Dray/Looney profiles as a great lineup, has done well in very limited minutes, yet we've tried a lot worse lineups for long times

Literally just subbing in Hield for Klay from the title team. Maybe it doesnt work long term. But what in the blue hell would it take for Kerr to give that lineup a 2-3 game shot?

cpower · Post #6 » by **cpower** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 5:50 am

Crazy-Canuck wrote:
cpower wrote:It's not his problem....its a talent issue. There is no talent on this team that can play consistent basketball - especially on the offensive end. Hield/JK is clearly not the solution and FO is not going to do anything about it.

You need to put the players in roles to succeed though. Kerr hasn't been doing that this season.

there is barely any shooting on this team and we cant even make FTs....what can Kerr do? its a shooters league. Look at Cs, they have like 5-6 players who can make 5 threes every night. We are way behind in basketball strategies.

Onus · Post #7 » by **Onus** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 5:52 am

Crazy-Canuck wrote:He is still experimenting. Now trying to integrate Schroeder into the motion offense and playing with steph is extending that experimentation window.

Imo, only thing kerr knows right now is that steph and wiggins are starting.

I get experimenting but why not experiment with spacing?

The biggest problem with his experimenting is that the only lineup that gets an extended run together is the starters and closers. Every other lineup will get like 2 min together before the next sub comes in. The starters and closers don’t even mesh well together. Seriously it’s like a 5 year old comes up with these lineups. There’s no cohesion or reason why these starters and closers are playing together. It’s like Kerr sees 1 problem and then tries to fix it causing 2 more problems with his fix.

Onus · Post #8 » by **Onus** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 5:59 am

cpower wrote:
Crazy-Canuck wrote:
cpower wrote:It's not his problem....its a talent issue. There is no talent on this team that can play consistent basketball - especially on the offensive end. Hield/JK is clearly not the solution and FO is not going to do anything about it.

You need to put the players in roles to succeed though. Kerr hasn't been doing that this season.

there is barely any shooting on this team and we cant even make FTs....what can Kerr do? its a shooters league. Look at Cs, they have like 5-6 players who can make 5 threes every night. We are way behind in basketball strategies.

The players he wants to play can’t shoot. But we do have shooters on the team.

Curry/buddy/Wiggins is a foundational lineup that can provide spacing and shooting. Once you have that you build in your defense. Add dray/looney/gp2 as needed. Then see if you need more offense or defense with your 5th player. It’s really not rocket science.

cpower · Post #9 » by **cpower** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 6:34 am

Onus wrote:
cpower wrote:
Crazy-Canuck wrote:
You need to put the players in roles to succeed though. Kerr hasn't been doing that this season.

there is barely any shooting on this team and we cant even make FTs....what can Kerr do? its a shooters league. Look at Cs, they have like 5-6 players who can make 5 threes every night. We are way behind in basketball strategies.

The players he wants to play can’t shoot. But we do have shooters on the team.

Curry/buddy/Wiggins is a foundational lineup that can provide spacing and shooting. Once you have that you build in your defense. Add dray/looney/gp2 as needed. Then see if you need more offense or defense with your 5th player. It’s really not rocket science.

the problem is Curry/Buddy/Wiggins only produce a 106 Ortg and none of the other players make it good. Green's drop off offensively has been the biggest reason. This team desperately need a creator.

https://www.fantasylabs.com/nba/on-off/

Onus · Post #10 » by **Onus** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 6:39 am

cpower wrote:
Onus wrote:
cpower wrote:there is barely any shooting on this team and we cant even make FTs....what can Kerr do? its a shooters league. Look at Cs, they have like 5-6 players who can make 5 threes every night. We are way behind in basketball strategies.

The players he wants to play can’t shoot. But we do have shooters on the team.

Curry/buddy/Wiggins is a foundational lineup that can provide spacing and shooting. Once you have that you build in your defense. Add dray/looney/gp2 as needed. Then see if you need more offense or defense with your 5th player. It’s really not rocket science.

the problem is Curry/Buddy/Wiggins only produce a 106 Ortg and none of the other players make it good. Green's drop off offensively has been the biggest reason. This team desperately need a creator.

https://www.fantasylabs.com/nba/on-off/

Make jk off and it goes to 111. Do a 4 man group of curry/buddy/wiggins/dray and it goes to 115.

Take out podz and tjd as well and it goes to 117.95.

DonaldSanders · Post #11 » by **DonaldSanders** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 6:42 am

Total delusion.

The roster lacks talent, especially on the offensive end. Fans are quick to blame the coach for the teams' woes, look at the Kings board/reddit; you have Sac fans calling for Mike Brown's head. It's no different here, the roster is the problem but the fans blame the coach. Until we get another player who is a 2nd option at minimum, expect more of the same. We've tried all types of lineup combinations, and it doesn't matter we still stink in the 4th and can't close.

Just blanket Steph and nobody can else can score efficiently. Buddy Hield is a career 57.3 TS player, not some offensive juggernaut.

Onus · Post #12 » by **Onus** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 6:45 am

Curry/Buddy/Wiggins/Dray are the core 4. Until Kerr plays them extended minutes I’m not losing hope on this team. My faith in Kerr finding this core though is waning.

Onus · Post #13 » by **Onus** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 6:55 am

DonaldSanders wrote:Total delusion.

The roster lacks talent, especially on the offensive end. Fans are quick to blame the coach for the teams' woes, look at the Kings board/reddit; you have Sac fans calling for Mike Brown's head. It's no different here, the roster is the problem but the fans blame the coach. Until we get another player who is a 2nd option at minimum, expect more of the same. We've tried all types of lineup combinations, and it doesn't matter we still stink in the 4th and can't close.

Just blanket Steph and nobody can else can score efficiently. Buddy Hield is a career 57.3 TS player, not some offensive juggernaut.

The kings problem is dd. He stifles their offense since he’s not a shooter which makes it only 3 out since sabonis can’t shoot and they don’t have any defenders so they’re a poor defense team with limited spacing. While Barnes is limited just being a capable spacer as a 4 was huge for their offense and Barnes is like an avg shooter. The issue is they don’t have any one to replace him. They probably should be playing even smaller and have dd off the bench and start Ellis and mm as the 2/3. That’s harder to navigate since they brought in dd as their big acquisition. It’s similar issue to the wolves. You look at all these team floundering and it really does come down to spacing.

vvoland · Post #14 » by **vvoland** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 6:55 am

I've defended Kerr for years but, at this point, not going to the buddy lineup, if only to close, seems insane. This team has Raj trouble scoring late in games and yet refuse to play the best offensive lineups.

Throwing jk under the bus after another year of messing around with his minutes is a bad look. Playing tjd this many more minutes than loon seems crazy. The late game possessions/timeouts/lack thereof is now a multi year problem. I thought stotts would help some of this; instead, it's gotten worse.

CDM_Stats · Post #15 » by **CDM_Stats** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 7:17 am

vvoland wrote:I've defended Kerr for years but, at this point, not going to the buddy lineup, if only to close, seems insane. This team has Raj trouble scoring late in games and yet refuse to play the best offensive lineups.

Throwing jk under the bus after another year of messing around with his minutes is a bad look. Playing tjd this many more minutes than loon seems crazy. The late game possessions/timeouts/lack thereof is now a multi year problem. I thought stotts would help some of this; instead, it's gotten worse.

I dont know about worse - technically compared to the past 2 seasons, Kerr's been better. Its a sad statement, but it is true. The problem is more that it seems like random flailing - moving Looney to the starting lineup and playing with Steph is better for him. But if it's paired with starting Kuminga, one step forward, one step back.

I think the big hurdle is Kerr's absolute fear of playing Curry and Hield together extended time. 534 possessions going into tonight, +18.3 per 100 raw, +26.5 per 100 adjusted. 93rd and 97th percentile of pairings. Those numbers spike even higher with GP2. Which means the death lineup might be best suited to be Curry/Hield/GP2/Wiggins/Draymond.. and if just looked at from a basketball standpoint - 2 shooters, a pure dunker, a slasher, and then Draymond (classify him as you will). Its a little light on playmaking, but the defense is borderline elite and so is the offense. Unfortunately only 50 possessions for that lineup (+43.4 raw).. but if you take one guy out, its still elite (all incoming #s raw):

Take out GP2 and the total sum is still +27.5
Take out Wiggins +17.5
Take out Draymond +33.5

So, so much value left on the table. More value than the past 2 years for sure, but with all this lineup shifting, the hope is he accidentally stumbles on it at some point. I think thats all we can hope for right now, because the Curry/Hield aversion is real. Hield shoots over 60% TS when they're together.. Steph shoots 62% TS, which is about his average, but the volume spikes

whatisacenter · Post #16 » by **whatisacenter** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 7:21 am

Kerr hasn't been great but the roster has been meh for the second straight season.

CDM_Stats · Post #17 » by **CDM_Stats** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 7:30 am

whatisacenter wrote:Kerr hasn't been great but the roster has been meh for the second straight season.

What do you think the upside is if they started Curry/Hield/Wiggins/Dray/Looney, with a bench that was primarily Schroder/Podz/GP2/JK/SloMo? Like per 100, net?

Those guys aint the only ones who can run MLMs :dontknow:

DoubleLintendre · Post #18 » by **DoubleLintendre** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 8:37 am

Each coach has a system and coaching style/rotational preferences. Even with depleted talent, I do feel Kerr's style is not matching up well with the roster. There are also times where the lineups Kerr is putting on the floor just look very suboptimal. Not sure where we go from there-- you're not going to find a better coach mid-season.

HiRez · Post #19 » by **HiRez** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 10:28 am

We're officially 1/3 of the way through the season, the Warriors are on pace to win 44 games, they're the 8 seed, in the play-in again. They're probably not quite this bad if they make some adjustments and acquire another decent player, but they're digging themselves a hole.

Sandy333 · Post #20 » by **Sandy333** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 10:47 am

HiRez wrote:We're officially 1/3 of the way through the season, the Warriors are on pace to win 44 games, they're the 8 seed, in the play-in again. They're probably not quite this bad if they make some adjustments and acquire another decent player, but they're digging themselves a hole.

If exclude the hot start they are on track to be the worst team in the entire nba with the highest paid coach.