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1.8%

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Romulus
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1.8% 

Post#1 » by Romulus » Tue May 13, 2025 12:23 am

Those were the odds of the Mavs winning the lottery. And now, it all makes perfect sense. Give away your young star to LA and get rewarded with the #1 pick and Cooper Flagg.

How rigged is this league? And how obvious do they have to make it?
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#2 » by HiRez » Tue May 13, 2025 1:10 am

Dallas will get all the headlines but the Spurs moved up from #8 to # 2, damn. I don't know about Dallas. Still going to take them years to build a contender around Flagg. He'll be good but he's still a rookie. Meanwhile AD is slowly aging out but will likely be good enough to keep them from getting another top pick. If they're smart they trade AD and anyone else for picks and tank for a couple years.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#3 » by Impuniti » Tue May 13, 2025 1:16 am

The odds of the Top-3 in the NBA Draft being Dallas, San Antonio, and Philadelphia in that order was 0.0114%.

Odds for the top 3 lol
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#4 » by watch1958 » Tue May 13, 2025 1:37 am

Of course the Dubs make the playoffs the year everyone moves up.

If I was SA I would offer 2 + a pile of picks for 1.

Wemby and Flagg.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#5 » by Jester_ » Tue May 13, 2025 10:02 am

not rigged but... nba gods certainly have a sense of humour
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#6 » by Impuniti » Tue May 13, 2025 1:53 pm

Jester_ wrote:not rigged but... nba gods certainly have a sense of humour

It's 100% rigged. Take a look at the last team that gave a superstar to the Lakers and see what pick they got immediately the next season.

WWE doesn't have this lame ass of a script.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#7 » by Onus » Tue May 13, 2025 2:01 pm

Impuniti wrote:
Jester_ wrote:not rigged but... nba gods certainly have a sense of humour

It's 100% rigged. Take a look at the last team that gave a superstar to the Lakers and see what pick they got immediately the next season.

WWE doesn't have this lame ass of a script.

CP3 to an LA team, NO gets AD.
AD to an LA team, NO gets Zion
Luka to an LA team, DAL gets Flagg
Most 4th Quarter Points in Final since 1991
1995 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5
2000 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5 (61.1% TS)
2015 Stephen Curry 10.8 (75.1% TS)
1997 Michael Jordan 10.7 (55.1% TS)
1998 Michael Jordan 10.6 (50.6% TS)
2011 Dirk Nowitzki 10.3 (68.0% TS)
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#8 » by Jester_ » Tue May 13, 2025 2:35 pm

Impuniti wrote:
Jester_ wrote:not rigged but... nba gods certainly have a sense of humour

It's 100% rigged. Take a look at the last team that gave a superstar to the Lakers and see what pick they got immediately the next season.

WWE doesn't have this lame ass of a script.


you guys think corporate fraud and international conspiracy that would make the Enron guys blush is happening to give Lakers a first round exit? lol

2% means it'll happen once every 50 times. roughly the chance of drawing the same card from a deck twice. nobodies getting struck by lightning here

it's not rigged it's just a fun game lol.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#9 » by WarriorGM » Tue May 13, 2025 3:15 pm

Jester_ wrote:
Impuniti wrote:
Jester_ wrote:not rigged but... nba gods certainly have a sense of humour

It's 100% rigged. Take a look at the last team that gave a superstar to the Lakers and see what pick they got immediately the next season.

WWE doesn't have this lame ass of a script.


you guys think corporate fraud and international conspiracy that would make the Enron guys blush is happening to give Lakers a first round exit? lol

2% means it'll happen once every 50 times. roughly the chance of drawing the same card from a deck twice. nobodies getting struck by lightning here

it's not rigged it's just a fun game lol.


Now combine that 2% with the odds that the team's generational player was traded for peanuts a few months earlier. What were the odds of Luka being traded to the Lakers for AD? Let's say 1% for argument's sake (and that's probably being generous). So .01x.02 = 1 in 5000 chance?
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#10 » by Zvaart » Tue May 13, 2025 3:25 pm

I don't believe in conspiracies like this.

It is very funny to me.

I can only imagine what's on the GB
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#11 » by Jester_ » Tue May 13, 2025 3:48 pm

WarriorGM wrote:
Jester_ wrote:
Impuniti wrote:It's 100% rigged. Take a look at the last team that gave a superstar to the Lakers and see what pick they got immediately the next season.

WWE doesn't have this lame ass of a script.


you guys think corporate fraud and international conspiracy that would make the Enron guys blush is happening to give Lakers a first round exit? lol

2% means it'll happen once every 50 times. roughly the chance of drawing the same card from a deck twice. nobodies getting struck by lightning here

it's not rigged it's just a fun game lol.


Now combine that 2% with the odds that the team's generational player was traded for peanuts a few months earlier. What were the odds of Luka being traded to the Lakers for AD? Let's say 1% for argument's sake (and that's probably being generous). So .01x.02 = 1 in 5000 chance?


jesus you'd think basketball fans would understand basic statistics - it doesn't work that way lol

do you guys realize how many people would be conspiring on a fraud the likes of which the world has never seen before, just to do what? make the Lakers a play-in team? you're talking about a multi-million dollar fraud to do what, help the Lakers? who sell-out arenas and jerseys with Lonzo Ball as their best player?
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#12 » by wco81 » Tue May 13, 2025 4:07 pm

Impuniti wrote:
Jester_ wrote:not rigged but... nba gods certainly have a sense of humour

It's 100% rigged. Take a look at the last team that gave a superstar to the Lakers and see what pick they got immediately the next season.

WWE doesn't have this lame ass of a script.



The other thing is that they're trying to make the Spurs with Wemby into the next dynasty. First Wemby, then Castle at #4 pick of his draft class and now the #2 pick of this draft class.

In contrast, Silver must HATE tanking teams like the Jazz because they keep getting hopped over despite having higher odds.


Oh and last year, the Hawks had 3% chance of getting the #1.

All the NBA groupies on ESPN were saying how great the lottery is, how the NFL should adopt it too because tanking teams are punished. They won't say the lottery is rigged but obviously if they're implying that there was some intent to punish tanking teams, that is admitting that it's rigged.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#13 » by Old_Blue » Tue May 13, 2025 4:19 pm

Jester_ wrote:jesus you'd think basketball fans would understand basic statistics - it doesn't work that way lol

do you guys realize how many people would be conspiring on a fraud the likes of which the world has never seen before, just to do what? make the Lakers a play-in team? you're talking about a multi-million dollar fraud to do what, help the Lakers? who sell-out arenas and jerseys with Lonzo Ball as their best player?



"A fraud the likes of which the world has never seen before?"
How naive are you? Were you living under a rock during some of the more insane chapters in recent business history?

For instance, during the Enron scandal, you not only had a giant publicly traded energy company functioning under a shell game model - but you had that scheme aided and abetted by a giant highly respected, nearly 90 year old accounting firm (Arther Andersen) that was literally caught red handed, shredding documents in their Houston offices once the scheme began to unravel. That fiasco came on the heels of a dot com bubble that was little more than the internet's version of the beanie baby craze. Later, during the Great Recession, you had hundreds of law firms, lenders, appraisers, credit rating bureaus and investment banks involved in the creation of perilously worded no document loan agreements, pitching of those loans to unsuspecting customers and packaging and securitization of those loans to equally unsuspecting mutual and pension funds.

The NBA rigging a draft lottery would be small potatoes compared to the shenanigans that get carried out every day by pin stripe suited dudes with Ivy League degrees.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#14 » by Twinkie defense » Tue May 13, 2025 5:16 pm

Impuniti wrote:The odds of the Top-3 in the NBA Draft being Dallas, San Antonio, and Philadelphia in that order was 0.0114%.

Odds for the top 3 lol

What are the odds that the Pacers and Knicks would be up 3-1?
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#15 » by Twinkie defense » Tue May 13, 2025 5:22 pm

WarriorGM wrote:
Jester_ wrote:
Impuniti wrote:It's 100% rigged. Take a look at the last team that gave a superstar to the Lakers and see what pick they got immediately the next season.

WWE doesn't have this lame ass of a script.


you guys think corporate fraud and international conspiracy that would make the Enron guys blush is happening to give Lakers a first round exit? lol

2% means it'll happen once every 50 times. roughly the chance of drawing the same card from a deck twice. nobodies getting struck by lightning here

it's not rigged it's just a fun game lol.


Now combine that 2% with the odds that the team's generational player was traded for peanuts a few months earlier. What were the odds of Luka being traded to the Lakers for AD? Let's say 1% for argument's sake (and that's probably being generous). So .01x.02 = 1 in 5000 chance?

Sure you can put together all sorts of unrelated acts and come up with a crazy probability - what are the odds that I would go out for a walk at exactly 10:18 and a blue car would drive by my just as that specific raindrop landed on my head? Astronomical! Must be rigged.

The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are 1 in 290,472,336 and yet someone wins it every couple months :dontknow:
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#16 » by Twinkie defense » Tue May 13, 2025 5:35 pm

I for one am glad that Utah got spanked. Not because I have anything against the Jazz, I just don't think teams should be rewarded for purposely losing games.

Mavs did a lot to try to win games. I'm glad they are being rewarded.

Also, not one recent Championship team (Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, Bucks, Raptors, Lakers) got there by winning the draft lottery.

wco81 wrote:They won't say the lottery is rigged but obviously if they're implying that there was some intent to punish tanking teams, that is admitting that it's rigged.

Sure, the draft is "rigged" - they could just give the top pick to the worst team. But the lottery isn't rigged - the lottery is literally the element of chance the League added to the draft process to try to prevent teams from tanking. With the lottery, the worst team has a 14% chance of winning the lottery. In other words, they have a 86% chance of missing out on the first pick.

It's unlikely that any specific team wins the draft lottery - whether it's the Jazz or the Mavs. Sure it's more likely that the Jazz would win... but it's still unlikely that either the Jazz or the Mavs would win.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#17 » by vvoland » Tue May 13, 2025 6:22 pm

Twinkie defense wrote:I for one am glad that Utah got spanked. Not because I have anything against the Jazz, I just don't think teams should be rewarded for purposely losing games.

Mavs did a lot to try to win games. I'm glad they are being rewarded.

Also, not one recent Championship team (Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, Bucks, Raptors, Lakers) got there by winning the draft lottery.

wco81 wrote:They won't say the lottery is rigged but obviously if they're implying that there was some intent to punish tanking teams, that is admitting that it's rigged.

Sure, the draft is "rigged" - they could just give the top pick to the worst team. But the lottery isn't rigged - the lottery is literally the element of chance the League added to the draft process to try to prevent teams from tanking. With the lottery, the worst team has a 14% chance of winning the lottery. In other words, they have a 86% chance of missing out on the first pick.

It's unlikely that any specific team wins the draft lottery - whether it's the Jazz or the Mavs. Sure it's more likely that the Jazz would win... but it's still unlikely that either the Jazz or the Mavs would win.



The math seems to elude most people. The best odds for the #1 pick imply that you'll get it ONCE in 7 attempts and miss out on it THE OTHER 6 times. It's like the world's worst game of russian roulette and all these garbage teams are so eager to play it.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#18 » by Impuniti » Tue May 13, 2025 8:05 pm

Twinkie defense wrote:
Impuniti wrote:The odds of the Top-3 in the NBA Draft being Dallas, San Antonio, and Philadelphia in that order was 0.0114%.

Odds for the top 3 lol

What are the odds that the Pacers and Knicks would be up 3-1?

I don't know, but I do know it has absolutely nothing to do with what I said.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#19 » by Impuniti » Tue May 13, 2025 8:07 pm

wco81 wrote:
Impuniti wrote:
Jester_ wrote:not rigged but... nba gods certainly have a sense of humour

It's 100% rigged. Take a look at the last team that gave a superstar to the Lakers and see what pick they got immediately the next season.

WWE doesn't have this lame ass of a script.



The other thing is that they're trying to make the Spurs with Wemby into the next dynasty. First Wemby, then Castle at #4 pick of his draft class and now the #2 pick of this draft class.

In contrast, Silver must HATE tanking teams like the Jazz because they keep getting hopped over despite having higher odds.


Oh and last year, the Hawks had 3% chance of getting the #1.

All the NBA groupies on ESPN were saying how great the lottery is, how the NFL should adopt it too because tanking teams are punished. They won't say the lottery is rigged but obviously if they're implying that there was some intent to punish tanking teams, that is admitting that it's rigged.

Even Lebron came out and said how comical it was that he, Rose and I think someone else all went to their hometown teams within the last 20 years. Again, the idea that Pels traded AD to the Lakers, then immediately got the 1st pick, the same story following through only 6-7 years later.

The chance of the top 3 picks being what they are this year also was a comically low %.
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Re: 1.8% 

Post#20 » by wco81 » Tue May 13, 2025 8:19 pm

Lebron tweeted a laughing out loud with tears in his eyes emojis after this lottery.

The perception is there.

Also, it's not just crazy that Dallas got the #1. The odds are even lower that Spurs get #2 and 76ers got #3.

So the odds of those teams all jumping and getting 1,2 and 3 are a fraction of 1.8%.

They want to make Wemby the next superstar so they're getting them help and Philly is also another big market team which needs to be competitive for the ratings.

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