Wright-Biedrins playing for the W's and Nellie in 08-09 ?

Sid the Squid · Post #1 » by **Sid the Squid** » Sun Mar 16, 2008 10:27 pm

How are the minutes going to get split up ? 12 for Biedrins and 12 for Wright ? 24 for Biedrins and 0 for Wright?...Any guesses?

I hope CJ and Azu become more of a factor next season..I'd like to see those two split up around 30 miniutes of PT next season.

Post #2 » by **FNQ** » Sun Mar 16, 2008 10:35 pm

I'm still predicting that if Nellie decides to return, Beans gets the QO...

The way our talent has been handled has been brutal this season. I wonder who's going to hit the "rough stretch" in the playoffs that we can pin our losses on.. it sure wasn't being outcoached in our predictable game plan.

We may have the best young trio of inside-based players in the league, and we're an outside team. And of those youngsters is our most important player now... and we still play this style. So basically, we'd better hope Biedrins/Wright develop completely on their own, that Pietrus decides to play basketball for more than a few games at a time, and that Beli/CJ/Buke become better players. Because really, thats the ONLY way we'll get better in Nellie's system.

We're just treading water... most fans are just glad we aren't drowning like years past. Terrible to compare the present to your lowest point as a yardstick...

Sid the Squid · Post #3 » by **Sid the Squid** » Sun Mar 16, 2008 10:46 pm

There's no coach in the league who is less flexable than Nellie when it comes to matching up his system with the roster presented....I think his age has a lot to do with it at 68 years old ...there's probably 0 give left...Nellie's a great coach for Monta..Just an awful coaching option for BW and AB15...

BROWN · Post #4 » by **BROWN** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 12:13 am

When he leaves , i bet B and AB will get a bunch of playing time from Keith Smart...

turk3d · Post #5 » by **turk3d** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 1:30 am

510Reggae wrote:I'm still predicting that if Nellie decides to return, Beans gets the QO...
The way our talent has been handled has been brutal this season. I wonder who's going to hit the "rough stretch" in the playoffs that we can pin our losses on.. it sure wasn't being outcoached in our predictable game plan.

We may have the best young trio of inside-based players in the league, and we're an outside team. And of those youngsters is our most important player now... and we still play this style. So basically, we'd better hope Biedrins/Wright develop completely on their own, that Pietrus decides to play basketball for more than a few games at a time, and that Beli/CJ/Buke become better players. Because really, thats the ONLY way we'll get better in Nellie's system.

We're just treading water... most fans are just glad we aren't drowning like years past. Terrible to compare the present to your lowest point as a yardstick...

You know something Reg, that idea isn't as farfetched as it might sound, particularly since Nellie is assured of coming back next season. Let's say that we "bomb out" either during the season, or in the playoffs. Based on past performance, the FO seems to have adopted the policy of not paying long term if they don't have to (see Barnes, Pietrus, O'Bryant and even Baron). And consider what if Nellie clamors for another "big name" player next season, justifying it by the "we just aren't good enougn with what we have" song and dance (which we've heard before) and we go after a Marion or a Brand type say as a FA? Well, if there's no trade involved, there's no way they can pay Baron, Monta and Biedrins.

If they can't come up with a deal they would like for Biedrens (and it's unlikely they will under the current scenerio) than they offer him the Q0 like they did with Mickey Pete with the understanding that they into to sign him to a longterm/big deal the following year when their cap is "more friendly" which according to Hoopshype in 2009/10 their cap is listed by less than 18 M (don't know how accurate this is, but expect it to be low, especially if Baron's not resigned). This may actually be a good strategy for them (economically speaking) and although a bit unfair for Biedrins, it puts him and his agent in a bit of a bind as far as getting a long term deal like they were offered during the offseason.

The Warriors obviously risk losing him the following year. However they still (I believe) would be in a position to offer him max money (which by then you expect they would know if he's worth it or not) and probably their cap (if they manage it wisely) would still be relatively in good shape. Don't know if this is what you were thinking but it seems quite plausible to me. The only concern is that it does open the door for Beans to go elsewhere (for less money probably unless they sign and trade) and may piss him and/or his agent off which I suppose (worst case scenerio) could cause him to hold out. Very interesting observation on your part Reggae.

sanddude909 · Post #6 » by **sanddude909** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:07 am

We may have the best young trio of inside-based players in the league, and we're an outside team.

************

Trio?

Are you including O'Bryant with Wright and Biedrins?

Abyss Impact · Post #7 » by **Abyss Impact** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:09 am

sanddude909 wrote:We may have the best young trio of inside-based players in the league, and we're an outside team.

************

Trio?

Are you including O'Bryant with Wright and Biedrins?

O Bryant is only 23. He will get only better when he plays. He should be included. Why are you doubting him?

Sid the Squid · Post #8 » by **Sid the Squid** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:13 am

He's 21

Post #9 » by **FNQ** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:38 am

Ellis is an inside player...

He doesn't just get open 18 footers for no reason... if he wasn't an inside player teams would try and stop his midrange and dare him to drive, innit?

Post #10 » by **FNQ** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:42 am

turk3d wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
.

Glad you agree... its been laughed at by everyone, but its looking more sickeningly realistic each day...

Word for word that's how the train of thought was going. Biedrins can't commit to more than 1 year in this crap... if Nellie signs on, do people really think we'll keep Biedrins for anything less than the max? Teams like Memphis will be all over him...

turk3d · Post #11 » by **turk3d** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:51 am

510Reggae wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Glad you agree... its been laughed at by everyone, but its looking more sickeningly realistic each day...

Word for word that's how the train of thought was going. Biedrins can't commit to more than 1 year in this crap... if Nellie signs on, do people really think we'll keep Biedrins for anything less than the max? Teams like Memphis will be all over him...

I guess if the FO offers him the Q0, he can still field offers from other teams correct? And if so, if someone offers him more (which is undoubtedly the way it will go), can we still match (need to brush up on my capology) and are there any limits on what someone could offer him?

Thanks, Turk.

Post #12 » by **FNQ** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:25 am

I think his max is 6-65.

Yes, after we offer the QO, he can take any offer he wants as a RFA. The W's could then match... I dont think he wants to go anywhere, but he does want to play more and have a consistency about it.

Head Leader · Post #13 » by **Head Leader** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:47 am

if i was andris i wouldnt want to play here.

24 mpg... please.

mistatwo mayn · Post #14 » by **mistatwo mayn** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:01 am

yea.. cuz he's ready to play right after surgery.

He's going 27 minutes (average) before the surgery. He played 40 minutes against Boston.

There is no way, unless we're getting Brand, that Andris goes anywhere.

Twinkie defense · Post #15 » by **Twinkie defense** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:21 am

510Reggae wrote:I'm still predicting that if Nellie decides to return, Beans gets the QO...

Well that's a bold prediction. Comparing Biedrins to Pietrus doesn't make a lot of sense. With Pietrus, it was all about money - if he was cheap, sure, better to have him around than gone. But the Warriors were well ready to see him go, if that's what it came down to.

Biedrins on the other hand isn't going anywhere. It would be extremely risky if it came to the QO - risky for the Warriors, and risky for Biedrins. If it came to a year contract on the QO, Biedrins would lose out on millions next season. And when the season was over, there's no guarantee that he'd make more than the Warriors have already offered. And on the other side, if the Warriors stuck with the QO next season, they'd risk losing Biedrins on the open market... theoretically they could still offer the most, and Biedrins could still play somewhere else, for less.

The QO just doesn't make sense, for either side.

I'm hoping that either the Warriors and Biedrins' agent come to a quick agreement this summer, or another team steps up and makes an offer, which the Warriors could then quickly match. Most worrisome to me is that no other team steps up with an offer, so there is less clear indication of fair market value, and both sides drag out negotiations trying to come up with market value on their own. That would be the easiest path to playing out the QO, but it would be Russian roulette for both sides.

Twinkie defense · Post #16 » by **Twinkie defense** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:25 am

I also think some fans project a lot of their feelings onto Andris... there's never been any indication or words from him or his agent to suggest he's anything less than happy here with Nellie in GS.

Post #17 » by **FNQ** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:26 am

Russian Roulette? Really??

Biedrins holds every single card. The Warriors HAVE to offer Biedrins the QO. Otherwise they can't match any offers for him.

So will Biedrins take it? If the W's and him cannot construct a deal, yes. Absolutely. No team is going to try and sign Biedrins away. First off, Biedrins' agent must be well aware that Mullin's gonna match whatever deal is struck, regardless of Nellie. Secondly, teams are very aware of that too.

So that eliminates all other suitors, leaving the Warriors battling themselves to keep Biedrins.

I'm fairly certain that most GMs have scouts, and people who watch every NBA game, and dont just check boxscores. What, do you think all young teams with cap room will say "Yeah, that Biedrins has talent, but he only played 22 minutes a game. He couldn't be worth that much!" ?

Biedrins' stance: He'll take the lower offer now since the Warriors don't "need" him as much. Then, when UFA hits, he will get paid by a team that NEEDS him.

And I'm hoping its the Nellie-less Warriors.

Twinkie defense · Post #18 » by **Twinkie defense** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 6:08 am

Of course, as a formality, the Warriors will invoke their QO on Biedrins before agreeing to a long-term contract extension. But Biedrins will not play on the QO next season... and certainly not because it's offered and he declines it - as we saw with Pietrus, Pavlovic, and Varejao, that's a no-win proposition for players and agents.

Biedrins does NOT hold every single card. There is a mutual interest between both parties to come to a long-term agreement this summer, and that is what I think will happen.

It was reported that the Warriors and Biedrins' agent discussed an extension last summer. But the only reason for the Warriors to agree to an extension early is if they were getting a discount.

Fair market value for Biedrins is perhaps best illustrated by the Clippers' Kaman. Kaman's deal averages $8.7 mil per. Last summer, it was thought around the League that this was overpaying. This season, it seems fair. So let's say the Warriors were offering $8 mil per, and Biedrins' agent countered with $10. The Warriors would probably (rightfully) think, if we're going to pay him $10 mil per, we might as well wait until next summer, make sure his improvement is on course and he doesn't suffer serious injury.

So, assuming the Warriors are well prepared to give Biedrins $8-10 mil per, by playing out next season on the QO, Biedrins would be giving up between $4.4-$6.4 mil (the difference between the $3.6 mil QO and the $8-10 mil on the table from the Warriors).

On top of that, when Biedrins becomes unrestricted, it is no sure thing that any team is offering considerably more than $10 mil per.

Maybe some team offers Biedrins $11 or $12 mil per. But if that is the case, I think it would be more likely when Biedrins is restricted, and the team has to offer a big deal in order to have any chance of the Warriors passing. In that case, I still think the Warriors match.

And if Biedrins were to play on the QO, get injured, or just not show enough to merit a deal at $11 or $12 mil per, he could find himself not only losing out on $5 or $6 mil next season, but on even more when he signs the following year.

Biedrins is a very good young player. He's not a max contract player, though, and I think there are always doubts about Nellie's players as to whether they are a product of the system or could flourish anywhere. All that said, with the Warriors in the driver's seat and fully appreciating the value of a center after so many years without one, I would be really, really, surprised if the two sides didn't come to a long-term agreement this summer. And I am eminently confident in wagering 10 RealGM props to back my case

Subaculta · Post #19 » by **Subaculta** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 8:00 am

Twinkie defense wrote: And I am eminently confident in wagering 10 RealGM props to back my case

I'm pushing all of my RealGM props into the middle of the table.. I'm all in.

Monta on the other hand... I hate to say it, but he would be a target for a sign and trade if the Warriors are forced to give Biedrins a large front loaded contract.

FGump · Post #20 » by **FGump** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 9:51 am

510Reggae wrote:Russian Roulette? Really??

Biedrins holds every single card. The Warriors HAVE to offer Biedrins the QO. Otherwise they can't match any offers for him.

So will Biedrins take it? If the W's and him cannot construct a deal, yes. .

Good analysis. Biedrins has the leverage of a big enough QO that he can afford to take it, and play for unrestricted status, if the W's lowball him.