Blow it up, sell the farm, or stay the course?

[gswhoops]

As I see it, we have 3 options this offseason:

#1 - Total Rebuild

Sell off Baron, Jackson, Harrington, etc. Try to get as many expiring contracts and high draft picks back as possible.

#2 - Minor tweaks

Make a few small moves to round out the roster, but otherwise keep things as they are

#3 - Go for it all

Sell off our young assets and go after a franchise PF like Brand or JO. Try and build a team that will compete for a championship.

[ajbry]

I'd go with #2. Resign the young guns, bring in a couple of legitimate bench players, and shorten Baron and Jack's minutes from 40 MPG to around 36. This season wouldn't have been a failure if a few factors worked in the Dubs favor. I feel it's too early to pull the plug, the Baron-Jack record since January '07 is pretty remarkable. The roster was pretty weak this year compared to what it potentially could be next year...

#3 is only feasible for Brand. JO is the walking dead out there. He'd be like the 5th option offensively at this point. Defensively he'd be awesome but it's not worth it considering his ego and contract.

[Chris Porter's Hair]

I went for #2 because it is closest to my sentiment, but none of the options as worded sound quite right. I certainly don't want to dump all the youth. I certainly don't want to dump all the veterans. But I think we probably need at least one major personnel move. Maybe it is getting a deadeye shooter we can trust against a zone (Mike Miller?). Maybe it is getting a post player we can use in the half court (Elton Brand?). Maybe it is solidifying the bench. But doing the sort of Azubuike/Barnes/Pietrus type shuffling isn't going to get us very far.

[Sleepy51]

I went for #2 because it is closest to my sentiment, but none of the options as worded sound quite right. I certainly don't want to dump all the youth. I certainly don't want to dump all the veterans. But I think we probably need at least one major personnel move. Maybe it is getting a deadeye shooter we can trust against a zone (Mike Miller?). Maybe it is getting a post player we can use in the half court (Elton Brand?). Maybe it is solidifying the bench. But doing the sort of Azubuike/Barnes/Pietrus type shuffling isn't going to get us very far.

Pretty much ditto.

I think as far as the core concept, you certainly don't bail out now. Despite all the things that drove everyone a little crazy this season, progress was still made, the cap flexibility is there assuming we don't stay cheap. I think if we're all honest with ourselves, last summer was about grabbing KG for a title run in Baron's contract year. The day KG went to boston, everything was put on hold. This year was a holding pattern. It was never for real.

There is no way that this, roster this season, with the rising tide in the west, yet all the financial handcuffs and wierd temp signings was intended to be the peak for the Nellie era. As Mylie said in another post, they have been lining up all the ducks for this offseason, so next year would be the "make a run" year.

If we come out of this summer with the same core, but only a couple more D league walk-ons and bench ornament draft picks, and more unused capspace then we have a big problem. I think you make one deal for a rotation player or starter upgrade and run it back one more time with a little depth and discipline.

[Sleepy]

My main problem with this season is the fact that we failed to evaluate our young talents. How good is B.Wright really, what can Bellinelli do, is Kosta ready for 10min per game. That was the main mistake of the POB story and it looks like the FO didn't learn from it.

You can't answer this question without knowing their status - and their status remains unclear till this question is answered.

[St.Nick]

My main problem with this season is the fact that we failed to evaluate our young talents. How good is B.Wright really, what can Bellinelli do, is Kosta ready for 10min per game. That was the main mistake of the POB story and it looks like the FO didn't learn from it.

You can't answer this question without knowing their status - and their status remains unclear till this question is answered.

Let me answer it for you...

Belli and Brandan werent ready to contribute yet on a regular basis. They will be given a shot next year.

POB sucks. Kosta is a career backup center.

[bill curley II]

I don't think 1) would work if we resign Monta and Biedrins. Not because they would take up too much of the salary cap (around 20 mil out of always a 60 mil cap). But they'd add just enough wins for the Warriors to be in the mid lotto, and Jack and Al aren't going to get lotto picks unless we take on additional salary when they're expirings.

I say play it out for 2 more years without getting any real big contracts unless we get a superstar obviously. But don't become a joke of a franchise again in that time so we can at least attract some free agents when we do have some capspace.

[gking]

Much credit has to be given to BD and Jackson for getting the Warriors back to respectability the last two years. However, as pointed out in another thread, out of all teams in the West Baron and Jackson rank nearly, if not, dead last in combined FG percentage for the team's top two shot takers. Baron and Jackson's combined FG percentage is something like 41.5%. Fortunately we have Biedrins and Monta to pick up the slack FG percentage wise. We are never going to be an elite team with our top two shot takers shooting such a terrible percentage. A somewhat significant roster change needs to be made to fix this. Maybe this means trading Baron.

[Sid the Squid]

Much credit has to be given to BD and Jackson for getting the Warriors back to respectability the last two years. However, as pointed out in another thread, out of all teams in the West Baron and Jackson rank nearly, if not, dead last in combined FG percentage for the team's top two shot takers. Baron and Jackson's combined FG percentage is something like 41.5%. Fortunately we have Biedrins and Monta to pick up the slack FG percentage wise. We are never going to be an elite team with our top two shot takers shooting such a terrible percentage. A somewhat significant roster change needs to be made to fix this. Maybe this means trading Baron.

Dead last..there wasnt even a close 2nd...Monta (53) Andris (62) and Brandan (55 and broke the ACC record last year)...Those are the guys who understand where to take their shots..They dont force things...They play the game the right way..So does Kevin Love, Gordon and Rush,,,Those are the type of players that will make our offense purrrr.

[turk3d]

Much credit has to be given to BD and Jackson for getting the Warriors back to respectability the last two years. However, as pointed out in another thread, out of all teams in the West Baron and Jackson rank nearly, if not, dead last in combined FG percentage for the team's top two shot takers. Baron and Jackson's combined FG percentage is something like 41.5%. Fortunately we have Biedrins and Monta to pick up the slack FG percentage wise. We are never going to be an elite team with our top two shot takers shooting such a terrible percentage. A somewhat significant roster change needs to be made to fix this. Maybe this means trading Baron.

+ 1

Actually this is nothing which can't be fixed with a few offensive coaching philosophy changes. Those guys just need to be reigned in a bit. Both of those guys are capable of shooting much better fg%. Shot distribution just needs to be changed to give more looks to Monta (which has already transpired) and Biedrens (this would have the biggest impact). Wright would also help if he becomes a regular rotation player (shoots a hight % too).

[St.Nick]

An offensive post presence would be a pretty good way to increase team fg% too!

[turk3d]

People seem to think we need "new" personnel to improve. No, we have the personnel, we just have to use them better. Get the guys who shoot the high % the majority of touches. Once the chuckers figure this out, they'll start taking better shots (once they realize that the most efficient shooters will get rewarded for it). We reward guys for chucking.

[marthafokker]

-= original quote snipped =-



Let me answer it for you...

Belli and Brandan werent ready to contribute yet on a regular basis. They will be given a shot next year.

POB sucks. Kosta is a career backup center.

Wow... POB sucks with 50 minutes in the NBA. In this case, Gerald Wallace stinks then too in his rookie season since he played a hell of a lot more playing time, then POB did in his two seasons.

All I can say about Belli and Brandan "will be given a shot next year".... that is what people said about POB. We fans will be happy if Mully just picks up their options.

Dang, even Detroit's and Houston's rookies get way more playing time then our young guys. They are REAL playoff teams. And their bench is a lot deeper than ours. It is our coaching that is the problem, not our kids.

[marthafokker]

People seem to think we need "new" personnel to improve. No, we have the personnel, we just have to use them better. Get the guys who shoot the high % the majority of touches. Once the chuckers figure this out, they'll start taking better shots (once they realize that the most efficient shooters will get rewarded for it). We reward guys for chucking.

That is assuming chuckers are willing to change.

SJAX and Baron had been ran out of town before. And they still have not change. Except for their reputation.

Remember Nellie asked Baron to play more inside and stop chucking? Well, Baron did it only if no zone is played. When zone is play, he does his usual chuckfest AGAIN. He should be looking at Chris Paul's game. He kills zone defenses by using his passing skills.

We should sell Baron and SJAX while they have value. Not when they become melcontent before we react.

Buy low and sell high. So I voted for #1. Need to get Al, Baron, SJAX and their salary off the books with draft picks.

[FNQ]

Technically, we have the personnel... I hope people here are religious - it'll take nothing short of a miracle to get Baron and Jax to show up next season without their chucks on...

How do you give these guys 2 seasons of complete offensive freedom and then tell them to shore it up? How will Fat Santa take that news?

I'm ok with keeping Baron/Jax if we bring in a coach that demands respect... dont really think LB can even be that guy though.

and btw martha - HOU, a notoriously thin team as well, took their late 1sts and 2nds and used them to make sure of what they had in-game... lo and behold, when Yao goes down - Adelman used his brain... if Andris went down for the season? We'd be discussing potential ways we'd win the lottery...

[Sleepy51]

Technically, we have the personnel... I hope people here are religious - it'll take nothing short of a miracle to get Baron and Jax to show up next season without their chucks on...

How do you give these guys 2 seasons of complete offensive freedom and then tell them to shore it up? How will Fat Santa take that news?

I'm ok with keeping Baron/Jax if we bring in a coach that demands respect... dont really think LB can even be that guy though.

and btw martha - HOU, a notoriously thin team as well, took their late 1sts and 2nds and used them to make sure of what they had in-game... lo and behold, when Yao goes down - Adelman used his brain... if Andris went down for the season? We'd be discussing potential ways we'd win the lottery...

I'm starting to think Nellie wasn't quite as plumb crazy as he looked this season.

Remember in Days of Thunder when Robert Duvall took Tom Cruise out to the practice track and let him run 100 laps driving "his way" and he wore the rubber off the tires driving like a maniac, then he ran 100 laps Robert Duvall's way and ran a faster time with more laps left on the tires?

That was this season. After KG fell through, this was all really just practice (see: Mbenga, Webber, Thud etc.) The front office saved money for this summer, we fielded an incomplete team. Nellie let the guys do thier thing as hard and as long as they could, and the only possible lesson they can take away is that they need to do some things different to compete in the west.

Next season is Nellie's last. He doesn't need future love or loyalty from these guys, he needs them to play better basketball. Nellie can come back next season as a dictator and no one can say boo. Baron's way didn't work. Jack's way didn't work. Even Monta can be beat over the head for losing defensive focus. Next year, Nellie gets to coach like he has nothing to lose. Monta will be locked up long term, and any veteran player who wants to jump ship would be cutting their own 30+ year old throats.

This is lots of wishful thinking of course, but the power is there if Nellie takes it. Plus, I got to use that Day's of Thunder metaphor that I've been holding in my back pocket for the last 10 years.

Go W's!

[FNQ]

Great movie, it was

By the way... isn't blowing it up and selling the farm technically the same thing?

[marthafokker]

Technically, we have the personnel... I hope people here are religious - it'll take nothing short of a miracle to get Baron and Jax to show up next season without their chucks on...

How do you give these guys 2 seasons of complete offensive freedom and then tell them to shore it up? How will Fat Santa take that news?

I'm ok with keeping Baron/Jax if we bring in a coach that demands respect... dont really think LB can even be that guy though.

and btw martha - HOU, a notoriously thin team as well, took their late 1sts and 2nds and used them to make sure of what they had in-game... lo and behold, when Yao goes down - Adelman used his brain... if Andris went down for the season? We'd be discussing potential ways we'd win the lottery...

I agree with you on both front. But I doubt SJAX and Baron would ever change even if Mully can convince LB to join. Just look at LB and AI. Did AI ever change his game for LB?

And Houston. At the beginning of the season, yes. Now, they have a hell of a bench with those kids. But with coaching (I know some will give crap about Adelman since he used to coach the Dubbs), he was WILLING to give playing time to his kids. Scola, Brooks, and Landry (Love this kid's game) are now serviceable if not decent.

With Nellie... he just say his kids are not ready to play.... open and shut case. Now we are outside looking in because the team has no depth.

[St.Nick]

-= original quote snipped =-



Wow... POB sucks with 50 minutes in the NBA. In this case, Gerald Wallace stinks then too in his rookie season since he played a hell of a lot more playing time, then POB did in his two seasons.

All I can say about Belli and Brandan "will be given a shot next year".... that is what people said about POB. We fans will be happy if Mully just picks up their options.

Dang, even Detroit's and Houston's rookies get way more playing time then our young guys. They are REAL playoff teams. And their bench is a lot deeper than ours. It is our coaching that is the problem, not our kids.

POB sucks. Isnt that even a thought that has crossed your minds at least once? You are aware that big men lotto busts do occur in the NBA, yes?

[Sleepy51]

POB may very well suck, but I think that today we saw an article posted by a third reputable sportswriter who questions how Obee has been handled.

Goofy footie pajama wearing message board posters may not have the credibility to question Nellie, but professional sports journalists who cover the Warriors and the broader NBA are starting to line up. It's worth considering that maybe, just maybe, Obryant (suck or not) has not been handled well here.