Ellis and Biedrins paycheck, how big?

[wiff]

So just an outsider looking in. I see Ellis is an unrestricted free agent who should get quite a bit more than his 700k he is earning now. Yeah I know I'm going out on a limb there. 7 to 9 mil? More, less?

And do you think Biedrins is going to be signed to anything other than the qualifing offer from the front office? 10mil to 13 mil? More, less?

Also what happens if Baron doesn't get traded?

[turk3d]

$64K question X 3. Your guess is as good as any. If you really are interested, there's a number of threads here which go into great detail regarding what most fans think.

But the bottom line is (which is all I think you really care about) is that Warriors management is intending to do whatever it takes to sign them (even if they lowball Biedrins or Monta initially). They will use the rules to match any offers out there should they receive any. Baron can be had if anyone is willing to sign him to a max deal on a S & T if they're willing to give up equal value (starting at $17.8 Mil due next year) as he has an opt out caluse.

[wiff]

Tell me this if Baron does not opt out and Ellis is offered around 9 mil from another team does Mullin re-sign him?

If he does, doesn't that pretty much put you guys in cap hell even before you get to Biedrins? You'd still have to sign about 6 more guys just to fill out the roster.

So if someone were to offer Biedrins 13mil could GS pay that with out them eating the luxury tax?

[turk3d]

Tell me this if Baron does not opt out and Ellis is offered around 9 mil from another team does Mullin re-sign him?

If he does, doesn't that pretty much put you guys in cap hell even before you get to Biedrins? You'd still have to sign about 6 more guys just to fill out the roster.

So if someone were to offer Biedrins 13mil could GS pay that with out them eating the luxury tax?

Not really. Actually, that's the most likely scenerio for us which will play out. If Baron stays which we all expect (since we don't think there is anyone who will offer him the kind of deal he wants which is max) and we also do not believe we could get the kind of trade value we'd want, it is very likely that by resigning Biedrens and Monta, we will most likely be right at the "hairy edge" of luxury tax. The problem for us with this is, that we will not be in a position to improve, next season, and as a matter of fact we will probably be worse as a team overall, since we will lose much of our depth (which was not all that great in the first place) since by paying all these guys, there will not be enough left, other than to sign our draft picks (likely), and maybe one or two of our guys from the present roster and maybe a few free agents and/or D Leaguers. Maybe (and maybe not depending on how much we have left) we can go for a FA using the MLE but that's not even certain. So do we have problems? Yes, but not to the degree that you are implying and definitely (if we play our cards right) will not be going back into cap hell. Even if we have to go into lux, the liklihood is that it won't be no more than 1 or 2 million, and it will only be for one year. The year after, when Adonal Foyle drops off the books, Baron is a free agent and both Al and Jack will be expirings, we should be in a good position to go after a high end free agent but we do need to be very careful and have to play our cards right this offseason.

[old rem]

Tell me this if Baron does not opt out and Ellis is offered around 9 mil from another team does Mullin re-sign him?

If he does, doesn't that pretty much put you guys in cap hell even before you get to Biedrins? You'd still have to sign about 6 more guys just to fill out the roster.

So if someone were to offer Biedrins 13mil could GS pay that with out them eating the luxury tax?

So what. If you can't ante up you got no business playin' with the high rollers.

GSW ASSUMED it would cost in the area of $20 mill for Biedrins + Monta and that's why former lotto picks Jason Richardson,Troy Murphy,Mike Dunleavy,Ike Diogu,Pat O'Bryant and probably M Pietrus were sacraficed.

Count em....6 bloody lotto picks.

Keeping Biedrins and Ellis was part of EACH of those moves. Now...if Mullin LOSES Ellis or Biedrins his next job will involve saying "Hi,and welcome to Walmart"

ellis IS an RFA and we have a version of Bird rights on each. If Baron does NOT opt out ---which I'd hope he does not--he's still just 1 more year. Jackson + Harrington have 2 yrs each. So....if we are $2 mill over the Lux tax short run----BFD. It cost us more to buy out our last coach.

There's VERY few scenarios where ANYONE gets Ellis or Biedrins. I assume the Raps won't offer Bosh for Ellis and otherwise...we ain't selling.

[old rem]

-= original quote snipped =-


Not really. Actually, that's the most likely scenerio for us which will play out. If Baron stays which we all expect (since we don't think there is anyone who will offer him the kind of deal he wants which is max) and we also do not believe we could get the kind of trade value we'd want, it is very likely that by resigning Biedrens and Monta, we will most likely be right at the "hairy edge" of luxury tax. The problem for us with this is, that we will not be in a position to improve, next season, and as a matter of fact we will probably be worse as a team overall, since we will lose much of our depth (which was not all that great in the first place) since by paying all these guys, there will not be enough left, other than to sign our draft picks (likely), and maybe one or two of our guys from the present roster and maybe a few free agents and/or D Leaguers. Maybe (and maybe not depending on how much we have left) we can go for a FA using the MLE but that's not even certain. So do we have problems? Yes, but not to the degree that you are implying and definitely (if we play our cards right) will not be going back into cap hell. Even if we have to go into lux, the liklihood is that it won't be no more than 1 or 2 million, and it will only be for one year. The year after, when Adonal Foyle drops off the books, Baron is a free agent and both Al and Jack will be expirings, we should be in a good position to go after a high end free agent but we do need to be very careful and have to play our cards right this offseason.

That's what I was tryin' to say.

going $2-3 mill over the Lux line? hey...I EXPECTED that a year ago...so we pay a tax of $2-3 mill....the cost of one overpaid backup.

Another year and we could have $25 mill + expired.

GSW ALREADY paid major dues to KEEP BIedrins+ Ellis. Those can be major assets for another 10-15 years-and that's how the team has to see it.

[random_hero891]

From what I've observed from a similar post on the Raptors board

Biedrins: probably 11-12, talent-wise I think he's about equal to Ellis, but due to the lack of quality bigmen in the leauge he's worth more, could go up to 13 if a team really wanted to stretch

Ellis: I would guess between 6-8 as there isn't to many teams with a lot of cap room and it seems that the move of guards this off season between trades and free agency will be significant, he's probably worth 8-9 but I don't think he'll get that this season

[old rem]

Monta will likely at least start at $7.5-8.5 mill. $6 mill is about what MLE will be. Biedrins probably won't start at much past $10 mill though his deal may average out somewhat higher. teams are not tending to bid for RFA's...or their bids are too low-and the player does not submit it and allow a cheap salary match.

When team X offers $9 mill for Biedrins....GSW can wait a week- and then match. Team X has a $9 mill chunk of cap space FROZEN until GSW acts. A week later maybe the other FA's Team X liked-are signed and they miss out.

[Twinkie defense]

Am I the only one who thinks Monta will get a bigger payday than Biedrins?

PS on the lux tax, I agree the Warriors should not hesitate to go into it if it means improving the roster, and anyway it would likely be for only one year. However going over by $2 mil isn't as painless (for a multi-millionaire) as it sounds... say for instance 'Buike is re-signed at $2 mil per. That's really $4 mil when you pay the dollar for dollar tax. Plus when you're in the tax you don't share in the re-distribution of taxes to the non-taxed teams, which might be another $2-3 mil. So really what 'Buike is costing you in this case is $6-7 mil.

It's not my money but it doesn't sound as appealing when you look at it like that!

[GSWhoopfan]

i would assume these two players are going to get 10-12M a season each.

both are young, still progessing, virtualy injury free (Monta knee surgery pre-draft doesnt seem to be an issue) and playing well. out of trouble and bright spots for the franchise and the league.

sounds to me like theyre the staples of the franchise. whats scary, is going to be when theyre new contracts expire...2 potential MAX figure players in their primes.

[Left*My*Heart]

Ellis is a restricted free agent and the Warriors can match offers for him and Biedrins.

The Warriors know what they want to pay each player and I believe they will pay Ellis more than their set amount. I'm afraid they don't feel the same way about Biedrins and if they are as far apart as they were last off season, I think an S&T might happen.

The Warriors are being extremely frugal and I don't think they are going to mortgage their future on a player that they feel has too many limitations to warrant big money.

I disagree with that logic, since Biedrins is one of my favorite players.

[Twinkie defense]

It's all hot air until something happens one way or the other, but common sense and Mully say Biedrins will be here long term, period.

The only exception I could think to this is if someone seriously overpaid either of these guys, as if they were max-contract superstars. But that seems unlikely.

[Chris Cohan]

It does seem unlikely there will be much action this offseason. Next year is the beginning of some real sweepstakes. Most young players already talking $8 million per year and up should be preserving their unrestricted status for these upcoming markets at all costs if they're not getting the market rate for what they are form their current teams.

Whether we like it or now, Ellis and Biedrins are already securely planted in the $10 million and up market class as top-8 producers at their respective "positions." If Nelson's new talk is really development-centric and they're only going to get better with more playing time and more responsibilities as they command team focus and investment on those terms, the price goes up. Especially once the cold hard reality of Baron Davis returning for his cool $18 million sets in on everyone.

The Warriors aren't here to just "win now" no matter how much Bob Fitzgerald wishes it to be so.

I might be a huge Warrior Homer if the tough talk is lived up to.

[Warriorfan]

I really don't see many free agent players that worry me. The teams with the room are Memphis don't really need a Monta, Philly made the playoffs C locked up Miller is above average PG and they have young SG's. Charlotte has to lock up their center Okafur who is on par with Beidrens. They also have a young pg in Felton.
My biggest worry is that the take the risk and play for the qualifier.
I think most teams see that playing for Nelson inflates guards stats and minimizes a center like Biedrens.

[Subaculta]

My biggest worry is that the take the risk and play for the qualifier.

a lot of teams are going to try and make themselves available for the big Lebron, Wade, and Bosh UFA offseason... I don't know if 08-09 is as big of a risk (as far as losing your own FAs).

[WarFan]

-= original quote snipped =-



a lot of teams are going to try and make themselves available for the big Lebron, Wade, and Bosh UFA offseason... I don't know if 08-09 is as big of a risk (as far as losing your own FAs).

BS

Several teams are going to be targeting next year as well, and I don't want to give them a chance to snatch Monta or Andris as UFA's. Right off the top of my head I can tell you that Portland is almost assuredly going to have caproom to sign one max free agent next year before they are locked in salary-wise for the next 5 years or so. I don't know if I could think of a better fit for their point guard position than Monta Ellis.

EDIT- Toronto, Seattle, Minnesota and Miami could also easily have max room as well. All of them could be good fits for Biedrins and Seattle might like Monta as well depending on who they draft.

[Warriorfan]

My true wish is that GS offers them contracts similar to what Chicago got with Hinrich contracts that decended in structure in order to really build this team up into a contender.

Mullin or whoever has made draft finds like Arenas and Ellis. Nelson has a long history of drafting future all stars so I think the pieces will be there to trade for or draft a Superstar.

[DLeagueAllStars]

Some of the teams you guys are think that will have major capspace next season, really dont..

Dont forget that the cap holds on some of these 1st round picks on players are pretty pricey.. Hell, I think Beans' cap hold is like 8M right now.. so looking at say the Hawks right now, they probably have like 14-16M in cap holds with the Joshes... So say Portland will have a large cap hold with LA next season which will hold back any large signings they do, especially when they know they will have to lock up a PG and Roy, along with Oden eventually

[DLeagueAllStars]

Well they cant front load both players, but I wouldnt mind if one of them was front loaded...

I believe actually Brand and Camby were front loaded also before they signed their last contracts

[Souvlaki]

Am I the only one who thinks Monta will get a bigger payday than Biedrins?

Yes. And it's not even close.