RealGM

The front loaded contracts of Hinrich and Nocioni got me thinking about any possible restrictions regarding how the money of the contracts is paid out. Does there have to be a linear progression regarding salary paid out? For instance, can the Warriors, wanting to free cap space for 2010, structure the contracts of Ellis and Biedrins so that the salary paid out is much lower in 2010 and then higher in the remaining seasons? There is probably a rule against this, but I am curious. It would be a great way to sign Smith or Iggy and re-sign Ellis and Biedrins and stil have room for a run at a 2010 FA. I already have my eyes on Joe Johnson, Mully needs to do whatever it takes get him... great 3pt shooter and great fit next to Monta.

The max amount that a contract can change year to year is +/- 10.5% (for your own FA's) or +/- 8.5% (for other teams FA's). I know contracts don't have to be a smooth progression (several players have plateaus before or after raises), I assume that V shaped deals would also work.

Sign Monta and/or Andris to a deal like :11M/10M/9M/10M/11M (scaled up or down for totals) so that the $9M season is in 10-11 - maximizing potential cap room. If GS doesn't get a good FA this year, that would be the way to go. If GS does sign Smith or Iggy, things will go back to being tight against the cap this year - and there probably wouldn't be that much left for a good 2010 FA anyway (especially if there's worry about Wright's extension and the luxury tax).

giberish wrote:The max amount that a contract can change year to year is +/- 10.5% (for your own FA's) or +/- 8.5% (for other teams FA's). I know contracts don't have to be a smooth progression (several players have plateaus before or after raises), I assume that V shaped deals would also work.

Sign Monta and/or Andris to a deal like :11M/10M/9M/10M/11M (scaled up or down for totals) so that the $9M season is in 10-11 - maximizing potential cap room. If GS doesn't get a good FA this year, that would be the way to go. If GS does sign Smith or Iggy, things will go back to being tight against the cap this year - and there probably wouldn't be that much left for a good 2010 FA anyway (especially if there's worry about Wright's extension and the luxury tax).

Thanks for the answer, I was hoping for a little more fluctuation, but that could still be a viable strategy for clearing more money for 2010... as long as the agents for Biedrins and Ellis are agreeable.

The player opt out is the way to get huge cap room for 2010.

I'm not a certified capologist, but I've just run the numbers and it would be possible to sign Iguodala or Smith, resign Ellis and Biedrins to reasonable deals and still have max cap-space in 2010.

That's the short answer and you can stop reading if you want, but the actual numbers are below.

First of all, I'm assuming a $58.5 million cap for this year and $71.1 million for the luxury tax line. Furthermore, I'll assume $2.5 million in cap increases the next two years, so that the 2010 cap would be $63.5 million and the maximum contract for a FA would be a hair under $18 million ($17,944,353).

So the requirements for this to work are that this years salary stay under the luxury tax and that there is less than $45.5 million committed to the 2010 cap.

The maximum first year salary that Iguodala or Smith can receive is $13,776,176, with max raises this comes out to 5 years for $79,901,820. If you offer the max 1st year salary, then lower the salary for 2010 followed by max raises, it would look like this:
1st year: 13,776,176
2nd year: 12,674,082
3rd year: 11,571,988
4th year: 12,674,082
5th year: 13,776,176
Total: 64,472,504

This contract seems pretty easy to figure out because you probably need the highest possible first year number to discourage Philly or Atlanta from matching. If we gave this offer to Iguodala before they offered anything to Smith we'd be putting them in quite a bind, as they would have to make a choice. If the total contract value seems to high for the player you can knock off some of the salary in the 4th and 5th years.

The next step is figuring out Ellis and Biedrins contracts, this isn't as easy but I'll guess about 6/63 for Monta and 6/54 for Biedrins.

Here's Monta's approximate contract:
1st year: 11,000,000
2nd year: 9,845,000
3rd year: 8,690,000
4th year: 9,845,000
5th year: 11,000,000
6th year: 12,155,000
Total: 62,535,000

Biedrins:
1st year: 9,500,000
2nd year: 8,502,500
3rd year: 7,505,000
4th year: 8,502,500
5th year: 9,500,000
6th year: 10,497,500
Total: 54,007,500

Now here's the 2008 team salaries (I rounded):
Iguodala 13.8
Ellis 11
Biedrins 9.5
Harrington 9.3
Jackson 7.2
(Foyle) 6.9
Wright 2.5
Perovic 2
Randolph 1.7
Belinelli 1.5
Watson 0.7
Hendrix 0.5
Total: 66.6 for 11 players

That leaves $4.5 for 3 or 4 players, maybe Buike for 2, Dooling for 2 and one camp invite?

Now here's the 2010 team salaries:
Iguodala 11.6
Ellis 9.1
Biedrins 7.5
Wright 3.4
Belinelli 2.4
Randolph 2
Hendrix 0.9
Total: 36.9

Now, if the cap is about $63.5 million that leaves the $18 million for a max FA plus $8.6 million of wiggle room. I'd guess between $4-6 million for future draft picks and maybe we sign Buike to about a 3 year $7 million deal this off-season so he's still around, or maybe Ellis or Beans get more.

Of course this whole scenario assumes that Cohan would be willing to spend basically all the way up to the tax ever year.

too bad that won't happen. its sad.

also. i think we'll have made at least one trade to get more salary by then.

The declining contracts follow the same CBA rules of a regular, ascending contract.

The contracts for Hinrich & Nocioni were the brainchild of this man:

http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/irwin_mandel.html

one of the select few NBA executives chosen to serve on the committee to advise the League regarding salary cap rule changes ... said Commissioner David Stern recently, “nobody in the NBA understands the intricacies of the salary cap better than Irwin Mandel” ... also considered one of the NBA’s most knowledgeable and creative experts on player contracts and the collective bargaining rules ... helped develop NBA team financial statements and assisted the NBA Labor Relations Committee .

WarFan wrote:I'm not a certified capologist, but I've just run the numbers and it would be possible to sign Iguodala or Smith, resign Ellis and Biedrins to reasonable deals and still have max cap-space in 2010.

Nice work...appreciate the effort.

I think it is an excellent laid plan but I don't think Josh Smith or Iggy are max worthy players. Would prefer the decreasing contract of Hinrich, or if Marbury is released at the MLE .

Great job warfan. if we sign a big fish, we got to stop this AL for Hinrich stuff, that would ruin our capspace in 2010.

-bob- wrote:Great job warfan. if we sign a big fish, we got to stop this AL for Hinrich stuff, that would ruin our capspace in 2010.

Excellent point Bob (hope that Mullin's thinking along the same lines), and nice job Warfan. If the Ws take this route, they can be a front runner for a long time, especially if they continue to get lucky with the draft.

why do we want cap space in 2010? we're not getting lebron (or wade or bosh for that matter). if we can't use our cap space to sign good players to good contracts this offseason, we should use it in trades to horde assets (like draft picks) while taking on short term contracts from teams who want to create cap room for that magic summer of 2010 thinking they're going to land a star. but instead we may go the peter magowan route and throw our money at every big name out there until one takes it.

also, if we can't get anyone good this offseason, then we should frontload monta and andris' deals. because we're giving them the bulk of the money up front, they should be willing to take a little less. we then have them on the books for less and less as time goes on. they're young so its not as big a deal, but i think this approach needs to be taken more often, especially with older players. nothing like having an aging over the hill former star sucking up half your cap because of a contract that seemed like a good idea 5 years ago. oops, sorry about that vision of the future, clipper fans.

Tommy Udo 6 wrote:The declining contracts follow the same CBA rules of a regular, ascending contract.

Are the "go down, then up" structures described in this thread even legal in the CBA?

sure- no problem at all to go down then up. (Andre Miller is one player that immediately comes to mind that had this) And remember that the amount it can go up any given season is based on a percentage of the first year of the deal, not on the season that came before it.

That is what Garnett allowed in order to help squeeze the Big 2 under the salary cap. Too bad there are agents who try to squeeze every dollar out of a club. A player really has to want to go to a club to do the fluctuating contract.

I don't really think that we'd be able to lure LeBron, Kobe, Wade or Bosh in 2010, but there's a 2nd tier that will include Johnson, McGrady, Hamilton, Ginobli, Miller, Haywood plus possibly the guys with options, Nowitzki, Howard, Redd, Jefferson, Chandler, Amare, and I could definitely see Rudy Gay reach RFA with the way Memphis is running things. Of course, not all of these guys will demand max contracts either, so maybe we don't need max cap-room.

Even if we didn't want to sign someone, it would be beneficial to have as much room as possible that summer to facilitate trades. Maybe everything goes to crap over the next two years and we'd be looking to take someone's bad contract with picks, say the Knicks need to dump the last year of Crawford's contract to be able to sign Wade and are willing to trade a couple picks to do it.

Who knows what will happen in two years, but if we've developed our young core and are on the verge of competing I think a good free agent would have no problem coming here as the last piece. Conversely, we might be trying to blow it all up again and it would be good to have a lot of flexibility when half the league will be trying to make deals and sign guys.