Matt finally comes through with a spot-on warriors blog

[Sid the Squid]

*Spot-on* in terms of I totally agree with every word

Something has got to give with our roster...Or else *playing the youngsters* is another Nellie flip flop that goes down the sh*tter.

http://www.examiner.com/x-441-Golden-St ... s-Examiner

[GSW2K4]

--The Warriors are going to play their young players, meaning Harrington (who will make more than $9 million this season) and Azubuike (whom you just re-signed for more than $3 million per season) are going to be high-priced end-of-rotation players.

This is the scenario I see playing out....I don't see this as insightful though...

Is it cost-effective? No. But what reason do we have not to think this would happen? 3 million is not exorbitant for a bench player...and with Al no longer "needed" to play center, we should expect a decrease in his minutes...9 million dollar contract or not...

So what reason do you have that Nellie will flip flop?

[Sid the Squid]

Nellie did a major flip flop on Wright in January ...Minor flip flops on Belinelli and O'Bryant...

Randolph is going to earn 27.8 minutes per game..Wright should get 20+ minutes per game..Biedrins deserves and should get 30 minutes per game..We should play Belinelli or trade Belinelli or buyout Belinelli...We just gave up a pick for two years of Williams under contract..It would make no sense to have him as our 11th man...

Ronny is a great fit off the bench to play with our uber-talented sticks...

Where are the minutes for Al? For Azubuike? This is not going to work..Al's going to get his minutes..Which means a couple of our youngsters are once again going to be out of the rotation.

I see a 9man rotation stretching to 10 when the oppurtunity is there

Biedrins
Harrington
Randolph
Maggette
Ellis
Harrington
Turiaf
Azubuike
Williams

Wright and Belinelli? No way we play 10 or 11 players...Nellie plays 9 tops in the regular rotation.
So use a little logic here...The roster doesnt fit with the *playing the youngsters* proclamation...Somethings got to give...Horror Story is too much of a personal nightmare for me to ever dream of his benching.

[Mylie10]

He's right, or he's been reading our rotation breakdown thread from a week or so ago.

Sid said 9 man rotation. I agreed but added that we'd probably go 10 deep.

We all sumized that when push comes to shove Nellie would probably go veteran and squeeze out the youngsters. The thing is, Randolph is so talented, he's going to grab Nellies love.

That means Wright or Al get hosed. Likely Wright, because Al has the 3 point bomb. Wright may get a little more time than last year, but if Al's hitting, then Wrights sitting.

Randolph has to get minutes, but at who's expense. He should be manning the 3 spot when in the game, but with Maggette and Jackson playing a ton of minutes Randolph won't get enough time. So that means Randolph will eat into Wrights time unfortunately.

Azu is merely a protection guy. In case of emergency break glass.

If this team starts out fast and is winning at a nice clip, then you have to figure Nellie won't be able to resist sitting young guys for older guys.

Monta
Jax
Maggette
Al
Beans

Seems to be the most likely starting five to begin the year. If the Warriors struggle early on then Nellie will be more apt to bring on the youngs. One thing Nellie has this year is the ability to mix and match with this line-up.

The key to Nellie's scheme should be the break neck pace. Something that got us into the playoffs but was hard for us to maintain last year because of the 6-7 man rotation.

I'd like to start the lineup above, but for us to run, run, run, with constant subbing. In order for everyone to play at that pace we need all 10 to get in there and force the issue. That way minutes aren't as big a deal, because guys will want to get their rest throughout the game just to keep it up.

Stick to the plan and then everyone will be happy. Slow it down and become predictable with a 7 deep rotation and then you start to get people complaining.

[GSWhoopfan]

Can we give Al to another team...ala JRich for a TPE?

[GSWhoopfan]

id rather roll with Bookie than Belinelli.

[Khoee]

add to that the fact that the W's will need to drive up Al's price and he's sure to get 30-35 mins a night at PF...Wright won't sniff the floor before Feb IMO...

[floppymoose]

Matt forgot injuries. Having too many players for your minutes is a problem I'm loving to have. No more Cro at C, CJ at the 2, when someone gets hurt.

[Sid the Squid]

What if last year happens again (zero major injuries), then Wright wastes away on the bench for a 2nd straight season?

[Khoee]

The math just doesn't work...

Jax: 38 mins
Ellis: 36 mins
Magg: 36 mins
Harrington: 34 mins
AB: 32 mins
Randolph: 24 mins
Azu: 20 mins
Williams: 20 mins
Total: 240 mins

Wright / Beli: 0 mins...

[smotheredinhugs]

No Turiaf?

[Khoee]

that makes my point even stronger...notice how I took Matt's point and made it my own?

[St.Nick]

PG- Monta 30 mpg; Williams 16 mpg; Marco 2mpg
SG- S-Jax 30 mpg; Marco 10 mpg; Monta 8 mpg
SF- Corey 36 mpg; Kelenna 10 mpg; Randolph 2mpg
PF- Al 25 mpg; Brandan 15 mpg; Randolph 8 mpg
C- Andris 30 mpg; Ronny 15 mpg; Al 3 mpg

No doubt in my mind that Al gets traded before the AS Break. His minutes go to Brandan and Randolph. Until then, Randolph will have to just bide his time. Thats not a huge issue as we can just delay the rookie wall by playing him scant minute until time clears up.

I could also see S-Jax being traded, too, with his minutes being taken by Monta (with more PG minutes sliding to Williams), and the rest split between Kelenna and Marco.

Lets say we deal Stephen and Al to Cleveland for Wally World, Joe Smith, two future firsts, and cash. We then buy out Wally and Joe Smith.

New Minutes Breakdown

PG- Monta 28 mpg; Marcus Williams 20 mpg
SG- Kelenna 20 mpg; Marco 18 mpg; Monta 10 mpg
SF- Maggette 36 mpg; Randolph 12 mpg
PF- Brandan 24 mpg; Randolph 14 mpg; Turiaf 5 mpg; Hendrix 5 mpg
C- Andris 30 mpg; Turiaf 18 mpg

At this point our team likely goes to the pits and the Maggette haters go on a non-stop rant until he is dealt, which would likely happen not long after.

[Sid the Squid]

11 man rotation?...Ive never seen that.

[smotheredinhugs]

I don't think you'll find too many that will disagree with the point, the real question is who are the losers? I don't think there's any way Al plays more than thirty minutes per game this year. Here's hoping no more than 25.

[GSW2K4]

I never said Steinmetz was wrong, just not terribly insightful there... and there isn't much reason to believe that Harrington's minutes won't decrease...

Twinkie, what would lead you to believe that Harrington would get 34 minutes this year when he didn't get that last year without viable options at PF and C?

Sid, your original rotation suggestion included Harrington twice... who did you mean to fit there instead?

I agree with Mylie...I think we've set up this roster to go 10 deep after everyone has admitted we were "gassed" at the end of last year... you need depth to run...and on this roster, that includes playing youth... no way we go with an 8 man rotation...

And as Mylie said, I don't think Azu will be playing much... he's being paid as a bench player...

And it may be that in some tight situations, Nellie will look to his vets...but that does not mean the youth won't play... it means that they may miss out on a few crunch time minutes here and there... I do have a problem with that because those are critical for development, but that is different not playing them...

As much as Nellie flip flops, he's also one to play matchups... and young guys like Randolph and (hopefully) Wright can create difficult matchups for opponents. I'm surprised people are overlooking Nellie's tendency to play with traditional position roles...

It's also worth noting that playing the youth does not mean playing youth who just aren't worthy of playing....that could include Beli...actually it probably will... if he comes in out of shape and chucking, how could you argue with sitting him?

All in all, I think what the proclamations mean are that we won't hear "the youth aren't playing because they're not ready to help the team win"...we may hear they're simply not NBA players and if that's the case (Beli) I won't complain...

[CrackLaden]

Why is Azubuike considered "old" in Matt's scenario? Dude is 24...why can't he be one of the young uns?

[St.Nick]

Unbelievable how much you guys bought into the Beli hate hype from Rowell and co.

[dom80e]

I don't really see a problem with minutes.
MPG:
Ellis 35
Jack 30
Maggette 30
Biedrins 30
Harrington 25
Williams 20
Randolph 20
Turiaf 20
Wright 15
Belinelli, Azubuike, Morrow 15

[GSW2K4]

Unbelievable how much you guys bought into the Beli hate hype from Rowell and co.

If he doesn't fix his shooting mechanics, he's not going to be a productive player in the league. He's way too wild and inconsistent right now...

If he dedicates himself to becoming a playmaker from the 2, that would be valuable as well... but I just get the sense this guy is looking for highlights...