A few reasons:
1.) There is maybe one or two powerhouse NFC teams (Dallas for sure, the other, I'd have to guess is probably Philly, who I consider to be inching closer to a full offensive rebuild in 2 yrs).
2.) Injuries! Ah ha! You never know who or what gets hit with this. Certainly EJ makes a point about last year's Bears. However, this year is going to be different. Maybe this time, the BEARS don't get hit with the Injuries, but a few other teams do, and that may be enough for them to spring past a few teams expected/prognosticated to make the postseason. To me this is the thing that'll determine their fate. As evil as this sounds, they're going to have to hope a team in the division or conference gets hit with Injuries. We've already seen the Giants losing Osi Umenyora for the year, and the Redskins (who love signing aging vets), possibly have a creaky Jason Taylor walking around on 1 and 1/2 legs. Let's not forget, Minnesota AND Detroit play indoors on those turf fields. We all know about those artificial surfaces and how the cleats can sometimes get caught up in there or the body hitting those surfaces.
3.) So the Bears have a tough schedule to start? They're certainly aren't the only ones. That or either there are teams who have a tougher 2nd Half Schedule. For me, I'll be happy if this team enters the Bye week with at least a 3-4 record. While that doesn't shout PLAYOFFS, it does give some hope that if they can put together 3 or 4 games in a row, it can be a confidence builder into going into the home stretch, which they can possibly finish 9-7 or 10-6.
BTW, you're definitely going to see a #6 with a 8-8 record entering the playoffs. The BEARS have to at least sweep one team in the division, while going 2-2 versus the remaining two division rivals, to allow themselves any postseason shot(s). I def. think they can do it, BARRING, the DEFENSE tackles. Thats my major concern. They've been unable to stop the run since Tommie Harris got hurt in 2006 (the Super Bowl run year). I'm not worried about the corners/secondary. Its those guys up front that worry me about hitting and clogging the lanes, then hoping Urlacher, Briggs, Hunter, et al to make the necessary tackles. We cannot have Vasher, Tillman tackling these strong backs, that poses big consequences for them as the season goes along. Frankly, they're just not that strong enough to bring down those Backs.
4.) Offense??? WE DON'T NEED NO STINKI' OFFENSE!
Well, we do need it! I think they'll give us more hope without any big turnovers. This offense has to do two things: MINIMAL TURNOVERS and EAT SOME CLOCK. Eating clock, if our Defense is good, will help our D to make some plays eventually, by figuring out some of the opposing offenses formations. Hence, getting good field position and getting pts up on the board. Lets not forget, few teams have a really good S/T squad! Hester will get some TDs (via S/T. or on Offense). Either way, it'll be opposing teams picking their poison somewhere.