He goes back an looks at the pre 2007 (rule change with teams getting to “prep” balls)
The statistical “jump” the Patriots make in the 2006 offseason, from one fumble every 39 plays to one fumble every 76 plays is nothing short of remarkable. Their trend line over this period is not even close to that of the rest of the NFL.
The 2013 season is an oddity in that the Patriots were actually slightly worse than the rest of the NFL. Looking at that season, it’s apparent the reason: Of the Patriots’ 23 fumbles that season, six occurred in a single Sunday night game against the Broncos. That game was played in 22-degree weather, with 22 mph winds, and a wind chill of 6 degrees (cold conditions of this nature causing more fumbles than usual). It was this Week 12 “arctic” game and a Week 17 game against the Bills—which saw four fumbles—that really put the Patriots fumble rates for 2013 out of sync.
To me this is more interesting than all the crazy talk. If under-inflation was a routine thing--it could lower fumble rates. A small change in the outcome of games--not sure how it impacts total number of wins--but I think there would be an impact--might sway a game or 2
The other thing I looked up was if any RBs switched teams for any duration to see if fumble rates are different
BenJarvus Green-Ellis had 0 Fumbles with Pats (4 years ; 510 ATT)
CIN 2 years 498 ATT ; 5 fumbles
He's pretty much the only guy who has about 500 carries on and off Pats. Not enough to be a smoking gun but it does appear something is going on.
I would also add I do think the Pats to all the right things as well--drilling, practicing, etc. They also practice in the elements -- I remember the Lovie Bears playing Pats in CHI--getting embarrassed not playing well in bad weather. We practiced in the inflated dome before the game and they practiced outside in the elements closer to the game. So they were running routes that would work in the weather and we were practicing routes as if we were playing in a dome.
But seeing the pre 2006 fumble rate vs 2007 to current--there has to be something else going on. Bellichik either found some new practice tactic or they are insanely good at finding backs with low fumble rates or the under-inflation thing has legs
I don't buy the "we bench guys after they fumble" because everyone does that and it's already too late if the guy fumbled. If they change the ball handling rules and the Pats return to the mean then I think the under-inflation theory is validated--even if you can't catch them in the act.