I followed the draft pretty heavily this year, I think we did good in the first 5 rounds with a good mix of big upside risks and safer guys who still have some upside. There were a few picks I wasn't that hot about, but rarely you'll have a draft where you agree with every pick.
I'll chime in with more detail a bit later.
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Raptorsrock
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-MetA4- wrote:I followed the draft pretty heavily this year, I think we did good in the first 5 rounds with a good mix of big upside risks and safer guys who still have some upside. There were a few picks I wasn't that hot about, but rarely you'll have a draft where you agree with every pick.
I'll chime in with more detail a bit later.
yeah please do. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
I was wondering if we took any big risk/big reward guys with so many picks
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Sister
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These are my thoughts on the first 5 rounds based on reading various reports:
16 Ahrens, Kevin Memorial HS SS S/R 6'01" 190 1989-04-26 HS 400K
Ahrens is a solid high-upside pick, and he is likely to remain on the left side of the infield, which is a position of weakness for us.
21 Arencibia, Jonathan U Tennessee C R/R 6'01" 210 1986-01-05 JR 400K
I'm mixed on this pick. I think its an overdraft, but Jon Lalonde claims that injury brought him down a few notches, else he would have been drafted before 16. If he can catch, then I'm ok with it. If not, yuk.
38 Cecil, Brett U Maryland College Park LHP R/L 6'03" 220 1986-07-02 JR 400K
Not bad, pretty typical JP college arm. Likely a reliever but who knows.
45 Jackson, Justin T C Roberson HS SS R/R 6'02" 175 1988-12-11 HS 400K
Jackson is intriguing and a high upside kid. He is getting mixed reviews on his bat and seems to have a solid arm for short.
56 Magnuson, Trystan U Louisville RHP L/R 6'07" 210 1985-06-06 5S 400K
Huge overdraft and likely a cost saving venture. He could have been had pre-draft as he was a 5th year returning player. Yuk, given that number of other good players around still.
85 Tolisano, John Estero HS 2B S/R 5'11" 179 1988-10-07 HS 400K
Another high risk/high reward type. A lot of debate on future position whether 2B or even the outfield. Has a good plate discipline and coverage.
88 Eiland, Eric Lamar HS CF L/L 6'02" 1988-09-16 HS 400K
I think this was a super solid pick for the 2nd round. The last few HS players have speed, something lacking in our org. I hope we can sign him and that he doesn't go college route (for football or baseball).
115 Farina, Alan Clemson U RHP R/R 5'11" 195 1986-08-09 JR 400K
Another typical JP college pitcher with lots of control and avg stuff.
145 Mills, Bradley U Arizona LHP L/L 6'00" 185 1985-03-05 SR 400K
Yuk. We grabbed him last year and he didn't sign with us instead going the academic route. I don't know, I guess the Jays really saw something drafting him two years running.
175 Rzepczynski, Marc UC Riverside LHP L/L 6'03" 205 1985-08-29 SR 400K
Wasted pick.
16 Ahrens, Kevin Memorial HS SS S/R 6'01" 190 1989-04-26 HS 400K
Ahrens is a solid high-upside pick, and he is likely to remain on the left side of the infield, which is a position of weakness for us.
21 Arencibia, Jonathan U Tennessee C R/R 6'01" 210 1986-01-05 JR 400K
I'm mixed on this pick. I think its an overdraft, but Jon Lalonde claims that injury brought him down a few notches, else he would have been drafted before 16. If he can catch, then I'm ok with it. If not, yuk.
38 Cecil, Brett U Maryland College Park LHP R/L 6'03" 220 1986-07-02 JR 400K
Not bad, pretty typical JP college arm. Likely a reliever but who knows.
45 Jackson, Justin T C Roberson HS SS R/R 6'02" 175 1988-12-11 HS 400K
Jackson is intriguing and a high upside kid. He is getting mixed reviews on his bat and seems to have a solid arm for short.
56 Magnuson, Trystan U Louisville RHP L/R 6'07" 210 1985-06-06 5S 400K
Huge overdraft and likely a cost saving venture. He could have been had pre-draft as he was a 5th year returning player. Yuk, given that number of other good players around still.
85 Tolisano, John Estero HS 2B S/R 5'11" 179 1988-10-07 HS 400K
Another high risk/high reward type. A lot of debate on future position whether 2B or even the outfield. Has a good plate discipline and coverage.
88 Eiland, Eric Lamar HS CF L/L 6'02" 1988-09-16 HS 400K
I think this was a super solid pick for the 2nd round. The last few HS players have speed, something lacking in our org. I hope we can sign him and that he doesn't go college route (for football or baseball).
115 Farina, Alan Clemson U RHP R/R 5'11" 195 1986-08-09 JR 400K
Another typical JP college pitcher with lots of control and avg stuff.
145 Mills, Bradley U Arizona LHP L/L 6'00" 185 1985-03-05 SR 400K
Yuk. We grabbed him last year and he didn't sign with us instead going the academic route. I don't know, I guess the Jays really saw something drafting him two years running.
175 Rzepczynski, Marc UC Riverside LHP L/L 6'03" 205 1985-08-29 SR 400K
Wasted pick.
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Michael Bradley
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I liked the Ahrens, Cecil, Jackson, Tolisano and Eiland selections. Jackson appears to be the first SS acquired by Ricciardi who will likely stay at SS for his career. I don't know if Eiland will sign as Baseball America said he was looking for $1 million. Regardless, that's a solid group of players.
With that said, I really wish the Jays would have gambled on Porcello with the 21st pick. I'm not thrilled with the Arencibia pick, and stealing Porcello there (while insanely expensive) would have been a home run for the Jays. Given the new rules, the Jays (or any team for that matter) would have a lot of leverage in selecting these Boras clients now. The Tigers caught another break. Though many teams, including the Dodgers, passed on Porcello, so maybe there was another reason for his slip. Arencibia seems like a need pick to me, and making need picks in baseball when players (even the good ones) are 3 to 5 years away from contributing is rather pointless.
With that said, I really wish the Jays would have gambled on Porcello with the 21st pick. I'm not thrilled with the Arencibia pick, and stealing Porcello there (while insanely expensive) would have been a home run for the Jays. Given the new rules, the Jays (or any team for that matter) would have a lot of leverage in selecting these Boras clients now. The Tigers caught another break. Though many teams, including the Dodgers, passed on Porcello, so maybe there was another reason for his slip. Arencibia seems like a need pick to me, and making need picks in baseball when players (even the good ones) are 3 to 5 years away from contributing is rather pointless.
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Schad
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It looks like a pretty solid draft, though it's always hard to tell with such limited exposure to the players. Really excited about Ahrens; I'm glad that JP feels comfortable enough in his job to take an 18 year old with huge upside with that pick. Arencibia I like as well; even if he isn't a top-flight guy, he sounds like someone who can probably be fast-tracked, and at catcher I'm happy with an above-average hitter with the potential to be a #6 guy in the lineup with some pop.
Also quite like the two relievers in the second round (now that I actually know who they are...); no other position in recent years has had as much success (and as quickly) as college closers, and I'd guess that both Cecil and Magnuson will be in the back of our bullpen within two years...the learning curve isn't very steep for those guys, and bullpen depth is so important these days. Plus, it might potentially free up JP to move someone like Brandon League, who still seems to have a fair bit of trade value due to his phenomenal stuff, even though I question whether he'll ever put it together.
I wonder a little bit about the Jackson/Tolisano picks, as both sound like 'depth' picks...and while the organization needs some solid prospects in the middle infield, I would have preferred if JP went for a SP with a good arm somewhere in the early rounds. Eiland I like; even if he busts, a five-tool 18 year old lefty CF is a great risk to take. The organization has some solid instructors, and if they can turn a third-rounder into a gem, he could be a huge steal.
Looks like JP has gone almost exclusively for middle infielders, catchers and college pitchers in the later rounds...not a bad approach, our outfield is set, and high school pitchers drafted after the third/fourth round often choose college rather than signing a pro deal.
Also quite like the two relievers in the second round (now that I actually know who they are...); no other position in recent years has had as much success (and as quickly) as college closers, and I'd guess that both Cecil and Magnuson will be in the back of our bullpen within two years...the learning curve isn't very steep for those guys, and bullpen depth is so important these days. Plus, it might potentially free up JP to move someone like Brandon League, who still seems to have a fair bit of trade value due to his phenomenal stuff, even though I question whether he'll ever put it together.
I wonder a little bit about the Jackson/Tolisano picks, as both sound like 'depth' picks...and while the organization needs some solid prospects in the middle infield, I would have preferred if JP went for a SP with a good arm somewhere in the early rounds. Eiland I like; even if he busts, a five-tool 18 year old lefty CF is a great risk to take. The organization has some solid instructors, and if they can turn a third-rounder into a gem, he could be a huge steal.
Looks like JP has gone almost exclusively for middle infielders, catchers and college pitchers in the later rounds...not a bad approach, our outfield is set, and high school pitchers drafted after the third/fourth round often choose college rather than signing a pro deal.
**** your asterisk.
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Schad
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Yeah, after reading some prfiles on draft sites, I wasn't enthralled with Jackson/Tolisano...but the Baseball Prospectus draft wrap seems to suggest that both are very high upside, and could possibly form the core of our middle infield in a few seaons.
If that's true and Ahrens pans out, the 2014 Jays will be a force to be reckoned with.
If that's true and Ahrens pans out, the 2014 Jays will be a force to be reckoned with.
**** your asterisk.
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-MetA4-
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Our draft is done. We've decided to SKIP our final 20 or so picks. Its a bit of an odd choice but it looks like we've got the players that we wanted. Cant really figure out the reasoning (until JP or Lalonde say anything) but I'm assuming that the players we've drafted we're going to seriously look into signing. We took quite a few HS and JUCO kids near the end of our draft, and seeing how we decided not to use our final 20 or so picks tells me that most of these guys SHOULD sign. I just cant see the reasoning for skipping so many picks if we weren't going to sign all of the guys we drafted (35 total).
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Michael Bradley
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Well, the Jays had a lot of picks this year, so I'm sure it's a cost cutting move. The chances of getting a good player in the first round alone is a 50/50 shot, so it's better to sign the good ones early than worry about the later rounds.
Overall, I think JP did better than I expected. It was a nice blend of raw upside and projectability. With this draft and Snider the year before, at least the next GM isn't going to be completely stripped of young talent. It's just nice to have potential impact bats again. I don't think we'll ever see another Halladay/Carpenter type prospect in the system for a long time....at least not until the regime changes.
Overall, I think JP did better than I expected. It was a nice blend of raw upside and projectability. With this draft and Snider the year before, at least the next GM isn't going to be completely stripped of young talent. It's just nice to have potential impact bats again. I don't think we'll ever see another Halladay/Carpenter type prospect in the system for a long time....at least not until the regime changes.
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-MetA4-
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Michael Bradley wrote:I don't think we'll ever see another Halladay/Carpenter type prospect in the system for a long time....at least not until the regime changes.
Our last pick was a HS pitcher
....the first one drafted during JP's tenure.
My only real beef is that I wold have liked to have taken a HS pitcher somewhere around rounds 2-4. I knew we weren't going to go with ANY HS arm in the first but thought we'd turn around like the A's have and take one or two somewhere in the first 10 rounds.
PS: Just wondering...why wont we see another Halladay/Carpenter type prospect? A Halladay level prospect doesn't have to be a HS kid, what if we end up with a Tim Lincecum/David Price type pitching prospect out of college?
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Schad
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-MetA4- wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Our last pick was a HS pitcher
My only real beef is that I wold have liked to have taken a HS pitcher somewhere around rounds 2-4. I knew we weren't going to go with ANY HS arm in the first but thought we'd turn around like the A's have and take one or two somewhere in the first 10 rounds.
PS: Just wondering...why wont we see another Halladay/Carpenter type prospect? A Halladay level prospect doesn't have to be a HS kid, what if we end up with a Tim Lincecum/David Price type pitching prospect out of college?
The only thing I can figure is that high school pitchers typically command very nice bonuses in the early rounds; if he had a guy like Eiland targetted from the start, he might have wanted to have some money available to dole out a healthy amount to him (and as MB mentions, Eiland is looking WAY above slot for his bonus). With 7 total picks before #90, that may have been enough for him to steer clear of a guy that could opt for college if he doesn't get big money, as pitchers seem to go that route more than hitters...even with the rule change that gives teams a compensatory pick at the same slot if a guy fails to sign.
That being said, I agree...it would have been nice if they took a HS starter somewhere in the earlier rounds. I really think the Thomas signing was a mistake; a better move would have been to take the extra money Ted is spreading around and try to make a big splash in the draft. The ML team is good enough to hang around in 3rd most years, with or without Thomas...I doubt he makes a huge difference at the gates. But if they're willing to spend on a couple high-ceiling Boras bonus babies (just like the way that sounds) one of these years, this team might have a chance to be good in the long term, which would put many more butts in seats than a broken-down 40 year old hitting under .230.
**** your asterisk.
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Michael Bradley
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-MetA4- wrote:-= original quote snipped =-Our last pick was a HS pitcher
My only real beef is that I wold have liked to have taken a HS pitcher somewhere around rounds 2-4. I knew we weren't going to go with ANY HS arm in the first but thought we'd turn around like the A's have and take one or two somewhere in the first 10 rounds.
PS: Just wondering...why wont we see another Halladay/Carpenter type prospect? A Halladay level prospect doesn't have to be a HS kid, what if we end up with a Tim Lincecum/David Price type pitching prospect out of college?
Ricciardi strikes me as a guy who prefers projectability in every facet of the game. Even his first significant HS pick (Snider) was a more polished high school player, same with Ahrens. Only the Jackson's and Eiland's deviated from that, and they were supplemental and 2nd round picks. I think we can rule out Ricciardi ever selecting a high school pitcher in the first round, unless he's REALLY polished and doesn't come with a huge price tag (that's rare). A high upside college pitcher might be more realistic, but those guys don't always fall to where the Jays usually select. Even when Ricciardi had a top 10 pick, he chose a projectable pitcher with GREAT make-up but lack of stuff/upside (Ricky Romero). I don't know if Ricciardi can ever choose a pitcher in the mold of Halladay/Carpenter, even if he had the financial means to do it. He seems completely against that philosophy.
I knew it wouldn't happen, but choosing Porcello with the 21st would have been fantastic. Expensive sure, but the rule change comes in handy, and it's about time the Jays paid excessively for a potential star. Even if they don't pan out, they are huge assets in trades.
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-MetA4-
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Michael Bradley wrote:I don't know if Ricciardi can ever choose a pitcher in the mold of Halladay/Carpenter, even if he had the financial means to do it. He seems completely against that philosophy.
When I was writing that I was envisioning a scenario where we had a Top 3-Top 5 pick
. I'd say that David Price is a Halladay/Carpenter mold pitcher, and if we had the #1 pick this year I'm assured that JP would have taken Price. Last year when we took Snider we were also VERY likely to have taken Lincecum if he continued to fall, although he obviously never made it that far.
While you are right about the Romero pick, its a bit different of a case. I was (and still am) one of the biggest haters of that pick, but that draft really wasn't stocked with Halladay/Carpenter level pitchers (like this one was) so I'm not so sure we actually passed up a Halladay type pitcher to take Romero. The highest ranked pitcher in that draft was Mike Pelfrey and he's nowhere near an ace-level prospect at all, and never really was either. After that you had Hansen, and he was a collegiate reliever that projected as an MLB closer.
While I'll agree that it seems unlikely that we'll draft a first round HS pitcher, I'm sure we'll very soon take a risk on a supplemental/2nd round type HS pitcher, even the A's have done this. JP has made a LOT of progress since the Romero (and earlier) drafts in terms of drafting for upside, and this draft had quite a few anti-JP picks. Eiland goes COMPLETELY against every JP draft strategy: HS kid with very little performance, extremely raw, but packed with 5-tool potential and more importantly a big speed player (how often does our team utilize speed or draft for speed? never). Justin Jackson is a similar type of big-upside pick that we'd steer against in the past.
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Sister
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-MetA4- wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Our last pick was a HS pitcher
My only real beef is that I wold have liked to have taken a HS pitcher somewhere around rounds 2-4. I knew we weren't going to go with ANY HS arm in the first but thought we'd turn around like the A's have and take one or two somewhere in the first 10 rounds.
PS: Just wondering...why wont we see another Halladay/Carpenter type prospect? A Halladay level prospect doesn't have to be a HS kid, what if we end up with a Tim Lincecum/David Price type pitching prospect out of college?
Jesse Litsch was a HS pitcher and a draft and follow through Juco.
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Kaizen
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http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=tor
2007 Draft Picks B/T Ht Wt DOB Draft Round POS Signed
Kevin J Ahrens S/R 6'01" 190 1989-04-26 1 SS 06/15/2007
Jonathan P Arencibia R/R 6'01" 210 1986-01-05 1 C 06/15/2007
Brett A Cecil R/L 6'03" 220 1986-07-02 Comp A LHP 06/15/2007
Justin C Jackson R/R 6'02" 175 1988-12-11 Comp A SS -
Trystan S Magnuson L/R 6'07" 210 1985-06-06 Comp A RHP -
John L Tolisano S/R 5'11" 179 1988-10-07 2 2B 06/15/2007
Eric E Eiland L/L 6'02" 1988-09-16 2 CF 06/15/2007
Alan R Farina R/R 5'11" 195 1986-08-09 3 RHP -
Bradley A Mills L/L 6'00" 185 1985-03-05 4 LHP 06/15/2007
Marc W Rzepczynski L/L 6'03" 205 1985-08-29 5 LHP 06/15/2007
Michael McDade S/R 6'02" 250 1989-05-08 6 1B 06/12/2007
Randy E Boone R/R 6'03" 215 1984-08-06 7 RHP -
Robert S Leffler R/R 6'02" 210 1984-08-07 8 RHP -
Marcus W Walden R/R 6'00" 195 1988-09-13 9 RHP 06/12/2007
Joel E Collins R/R 6'01" 195 1986-04-24 10 C 06/15/2007
Bradley M Emaus R/R 6'00" 190 1986-03-28 11 2B 06/15/2007
Steven Condotta R/R 6'00" 180 1985-03-18 12 SS 06/15/2007
Jonathan R Talley L/R 6'04" 220 1989-02-18 13 C 06/12/2007
Cody S Crowell L/L 6'03" 215 1985-08-23 14 LHP 06/12/2007
Nathan A Jennings R/R 6'00" 180 1984-12-24 15 RHP 06/12/2007
Darin P Mastroianni R/R 5'11" 190 1985-08-26 16 2B 06/12/2007
Adalberto Santos R/R 5'11" 185 1987-09-28 17 2B 06/12/2007
Christopher D Corrigan R/R 6'02" 155 1987-12-24 18 RHP -
Brian C Letko L/L 6'05" 195 1985-01-23 19 LHP 06/12/2007
Willie P Hale R/R 6'07" 190 1985-12-11 20 RHP -
Cody R Dunbar R/R 6'03" 225 1985-12-04 21 RHP -
Matthew D Thomson R/R 6'04" 195 1988-03-22 22 RHP -
Frank T Gailey L/L 5'11" 185 1985-11-18 23 LHP 06/12/2007
James M Dougher R/R 6'07" 225 1985-07-03 24 RHP 06/12/2007
Jason V Monti R/R 6'01" 210 1985-03-15 25 RHP 06/12/2007
Ross E Buckwalter R/R 6'00" 175 1985-01-27 26 RHP 06/12/2007
Kyle E Gilligan R/R 6'02" 185 1988-03-07 27 SS -
Xorge Carrillo R/R 6'01" 210 1989-04-12 28 C -
Jonathan J Runnels L/L 5'10" 160 1986-02-07 29 LHP -
David H Kaye R/R 6'02" 190 1988-09-09 30 RHP -
2007 Draft Picks B/T Ht Wt DOB Draft Round POS Signed
Kevin J Ahrens S/R 6'01" 190 1989-04-26 1 SS 06/15/2007
Jonathan P Arencibia R/R 6'01" 210 1986-01-05 1 C 06/15/2007
Brett A Cecil R/L 6'03" 220 1986-07-02 Comp A LHP 06/15/2007
Justin C Jackson R/R 6'02" 175 1988-12-11 Comp A SS -
Trystan S Magnuson L/R 6'07" 210 1985-06-06 Comp A RHP -
John L Tolisano S/R 5'11" 179 1988-10-07 2 2B 06/15/2007
Eric E Eiland L/L 6'02" 1988-09-16 2 CF 06/15/2007
Alan R Farina R/R 5'11" 195 1986-08-09 3 RHP -
Bradley A Mills L/L 6'00" 185 1985-03-05 4 LHP 06/15/2007
Marc W Rzepczynski L/L 6'03" 205 1985-08-29 5 LHP 06/15/2007
Michael McDade S/R 6'02" 250 1989-05-08 6 1B 06/12/2007
Randy E Boone R/R 6'03" 215 1984-08-06 7 RHP -
Robert S Leffler R/R 6'02" 210 1984-08-07 8 RHP -
Marcus W Walden R/R 6'00" 195 1988-09-13 9 RHP 06/12/2007
Joel E Collins R/R 6'01" 195 1986-04-24 10 C 06/15/2007
Bradley M Emaus R/R 6'00" 190 1986-03-28 11 2B 06/15/2007
Steven Condotta R/R 6'00" 180 1985-03-18 12 SS 06/15/2007
Jonathan R Talley L/R 6'04" 220 1989-02-18 13 C 06/12/2007
Cody S Crowell L/L 6'03" 215 1985-08-23 14 LHP 06/12/2007
Nathan A Jennings R/R 6'00" 180 1984-12-24 15 RHP 06/12/2007
Darin P Mastroianni R/R 5'11" 190 1985-08-26 16 2B 06/12/2007
Adalberto Santos R/R 5'11" 185 1987-09-28 17 2B 06/12/2007
Christopher D Corrigan R/R 6'02" 155 1987-12-24 18 RHP -
Brian C Letko L/L 6'05" 195 1985-01-23 19 LHP 06/12/2007
Willie P Hale R/R 6'07" 190 1985-12-11 20 RHP -
Cody R Dunbar R/R 6'03" 225 1985-12-04 21 RHP -
Matthew D Thomson R/R 6'04" 195 1988-03-22 22 RHP -
Frank T Gailey L/L 5'11" 185 1985-11-18 23 LHP 06/12/2007
James M Dougher R/R 6'07" 225 1985-07-03 24 RHP 06/12/2007
Jason V Monti R/R 6'01" 210 1985-03-15 25 RHP 06/12/2007
Ross E Buckwalter R/R 6'00" 175 1985-01-27 26 RHP 06/12/2007
Kyle E Gilligan R/R 6'02" 185 1988-03-07 27 SS -
Xorge Carrillo R/R 6'01" 210 1989-04-12 28 C -
Jonathan J Runnels L/L 5'10" 160 1986-02-07 29 LHP -
David H Kaye R/R 6'02" 190 1988-09-09 30 RHP -