Got this off another Bears board (No I am not cheating on you guys...yet
)
almost never post but I read often. I do this every couple years when people start saying that Angelo can't draft. I don't necessarily intend to argue that point one way or the other, but I like to bring up some statistical evidence for the group to debate.
Here are my calculations. It's all based on the definition of success. Rd 1-3 should be a starter or better. Rd 4-7 should be depth or better. More info on that below.
Star-divide
Definition of Success
To quantify the success of a draft, I've developed 5 classes of players in the NFL. Each draft pick will be assigned to one of the classes for calculation purposes. This is the only “human judgment” that takes place. I'll generally assign the pick to the highest level that they achieved, but there is some judgment involved there (you'll notice I did not call Craig Krenzel a starter).
ProBowl: Player has made the PB
Starter: Player has been a regular starter
Depth: Player provided quality depth
Fodder: Player limited mainly to ST or buried in roster
Out of NFL: Player didn't stick on the roster
Round 1-3: Starter or better (60.9% success rate)
Round 4-7: Depth or better (45.0% success rate)
Rd 1 Success Rate = 85.7%
Rd 2 Success Rate = 71.4%
Rd 3 Success Rate = 33.3%
Rd 4 Success Rate = 77.8%
Rd 5 Success Rate = 61.5%
Rd 6 Success Rate = 25%
Rd 7 Success Rate = 10%
I've assigned every pick Angelo has made (his first draft was 2002 when our first pck was Marc Columbo). There are certainly some decisions that could be questioned. Here's how I've classified them:
2008
1 Chris Williams - Starter
2 Matt Forte - Starter
3 Earl Bennett - Fodder
3 Marcus Harrison - Depth
4 Craig Steltz - Depth
5 Zack Bowman - Depth
5 Kellen Davis - Depth
7 Ervin Baldwin – Out of NFL
7 Chester Adams – Out of NFL
7 Joey LaRocque - Fodder
7 Kirk Barton - Fodder
7 Marcus Monk - Fodder
2007
1 Greg Olsen - Starter
2 Dan Bazuin – Out of NFL
3 Garrett Wolfe – Depth
3 Michael Okwo – Out of NFL
4 Josh Beekman - Starter
5 Kevin Payne - Starter
5 Corey Graham – Depth
7 Trumaine McBride – Depth
7 Aaron Brant – Out of NFL
2006
2 Danieal Manning - Starter
2 Devin Hester – ProBowl
3 Dusty Dvoracek - Starter
4 Jamar Williams – Depth
5 Mark Anderson – Depth
6 J.D. Runnels – Out of NFL
6 Tyler Reed - Fodder
2005
1 Cedric Benson - Starter
2 Mark Bradley – Depth
4 Kyle Orton - Starter
5 Airese Currie – Out of NFL
6 Chris Harris - Starter
7 Rod Wilson - Fodder
2004
1 Tommie Harris - ProBowl
2 Tank Johnson - Starter
3 Bernard Berrian - Starter
4 Nathan Vasher – ProBowl
4 Leon Joe - Fodder
5 Claude Harriott – Out of NFL
5 Craig Krenzel – Out of NFL
7 Alfonso Marshall – Out of NFL
2003
1 Michael Haynes – Out of NFL
1 Rex Grossman - Starter
2 Charles Tillman - Starter
3 Lance Briggs – ProBowl
4 Todd Johnson - Fodder
4 Ian Scott - Starter
5 Bobby Wade – Depth
5 Justin Gage - Starter
5 Tron LaFavor – Out of NFL
6 Joe Odom - Fodder
6 Brock Forsey – Out of NFL
7 Bryan Anderson – Out of NFL
2002
1 Marc Colombo - Starter
3 Roe Williams – Out of NFL
3 Terrence Metcalf – Depth
4 Alex Brown - Starter
5 Bobby Gray – Depth
5 Bryan Knight – Out of NFL
6 Adrian Peterson – Depth
6 Jamin Elliott – Out of NFL
6 Bryan Fletcher – Out of NFL
