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This is my fear: The Bears will sign a WR as a free agent, draft a WR in the second round, take linebackers, safeties, and cornerbacks with the remaining picks and probably another WR. Our offense will be one of the best in the NFL, and our defense will be one of the worse in the NFL. Thus, we will be an average team, go 8-8 and miss the playoffs?

Why do I think our defense will be so bad? Because our pass rushing this year will be terrible, and no defense can be good without a good pass rush. Look at the 85 Bears- they didn't really have anyone special in the secondary, but if your pass rush is good enough then it doesn't matter if the secondary isn't that good if the D-line can pressure the QB on every play.

good defensive teams who had great pass rushers and an okay secondary
The Giants
The Panthers
The Titans
The Vikings

Defenses that have really good cornerbacks and safeties usually suck if they don't have a good pass rush. Just look at the Green Bay Packers last year. Nick Collins and Charles Woodson were starters in the pro-bowl, while Al Harris was a reserve. Green Bay's pass defense was terrible because they couldn't put any pressure on the QB. It doesn't matter how good your secondary is, if a good WR has time, he will get open and a good QB will be able to find him. Or, if the other team has a bad QB, like Grossman, you want to have an excellent pass rush so you can force him to make mistakes.

Also, Adrian Wilson was a starter in the pro-bowl and the Cardinals were not a good defensive team during the regular season. Champ Bailey is probably the best cornerback in the NFl, but Denver's defense was atrocious last year due to the lack of a good pass rush.

Now I'm sure that someone will say, "What about Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu?" Well, first of all, both the Ravens and the Steelers have a good pass-rush. Ed Reed is able to get a lot of interceptions because the Ravens put a lot of pressure on the QB, and Troy Polamalu plays up at the line a lot and is used against the run a lot.

When the Bears made the Superbowl, we had an amazing D-line. Tank Johnson, Tommie Harris, Alex Brown, and Alewale Ogunleye were all excellent pass rushers. Well, Alex Brown wasn't excellent, but he was very damn good for the 4th best pass rusher on the team. We cut Tank because of his run in with the law, Ogunleye got old, and Tommie got injured. Now Alex Brown is our best pass rusher, and he's like Tony Kukoc in 1999- he was amazing as our 4th best, but as our best he isn't very good.

Last year the Bears defense definitely had games where the pass-rush allowed the other team to light us up:

We let Brian Griese pass for 407 yards against us.
We let Matt Ryan pass for 301 yards against us.
We let Gus Frerotte pass for 298 yards against us.
We let Dan Orlovsky pass for 292 yards against us.
We let Kerry Collins pass for 289 yards against us.
We let Matt Schaub pass for 328 yards against us.

This is with Mike Brown, Charles Tillman, Kevin Payne, and Daniel Manning in the secondary- not too bad.

My fear is that the Bears next year will be like the Broncos this year. We will win 8 games because of our offense, but lose 8 games because of our defense.

Now I've heard a few arguments as to why our d-line will be better, but frankly, I think that they're all garbage. Here they are:

1.) Tommie Harris is 100% healthy. Well, that's what our coaches are saying, and they may be telling the truth. But how many games into the season until he re-injures himself? I feel like Tommie Harris has become the new Mike Brown on this team, where every year we hope that he can stay healthy the whole season, and every year he disappoints. Also, what does that mean that he's 100%? Does that mean that he'll be as good as he was in 2005, or does that mean that he'll be as good as he can be now?

2.) Ogunleye is in a contract year so he'll have extra motivation. While this argument is true, it overlooks the fact that he's going to be a year older. As players get older, the difference in one year gets larger. For example, the difference between a 29 and a 30 year old d-lineman isn’t as big as the difference between a 32 year old and a 33 year old d-lineman.

3.) Our coaching is better because of Lovie and Marinelli. This is probably the best argument, but coaching can only go so far. Harris will get injured at some point, Ogunleye will start the season being 32, and Alex Brown and Mark Anderson just aren’t that good.

4.) Mark Anderson will beast it up this year. Well, why hasn’t he made any progress in his 3 years in the league? His rookie year he had 12 sacks. Last year he had 1. If a player regresses between his rookie and 3rd years, why would he make a tremendous improvement between his 3rd and 4th years?

In football, it’s good for a team to have balance. People say that we need to have amazing wide receivers in order for Jay Cutler to have any impact, but don’t you think that Jay Cutler throwing to Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, Earl Bennet, Greg Olson, Desmond Clark, and Matt Forte better than Kyle Orton throwing to Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, Earl Bennet, Greg Olson, Desmond Clark, and Matt Forte? If we focus on WR when it comes to free agency/the draft/trades, then next year we’ll be a great offensive team and a bad defensive team. If we focus on DE instead then we’ll be a good offensive team and a good defensive team.

Wouldn’t you rather have a team that’s good at offense and defense then a team that’s great at offense but bad at defense?

Half of these draft picks will be on defense.

Looking at the roster needs on offense are (2 - WRs, 1 backup QB & a young OT to develop)

Other 4 picks will probably be a DE, FS, CB and possibly a LB

I think the Bears draft a DE in the 3rd (possible the 2nd if he is the BPA, and then get a WR in the 3rd)

Just my thoughts

Very strong argument. I agree with alot of your points - Can't say I disagree with much (other than to give props to Les Fraizer, "LA" Mike Richardson, Dave Duerson & Gary Fencik as a very solid secondary)

What would you do to help the D-Line as of today? I don't see any game changing DE or DL left in FA and I'm not sure how much of a game changer you're gonna get at #49 in the 2nd round for the D-Line??

I think if the coaching doesn't bring them back to form, then D Line is Jerry's focus in 2010 FA & the draft. The secondary is fine IMO - and as you say, add a pass rush you get better results.

If he goes veteran WR now (ie Holt) & WR in the 2nd round, our entire offense is young, set & under contract for a while.

I agree with it all.

There was a thread last year with stats, which the Bears were top ten in, pretty much, all major categories, and 2nd to last in pass rush. We were awful, but led in almost every major defensive category. Thats how important the D-Line is.

Another stat, which is highly overlooked, is forced fumbles. In the Super Bowl year, and in 07(last time this defense was respectable), we were one of the top teams in forced fumbles. For some reason we haven't been getting to the ball as well as we have in the past. I value FF over sacks, although they go hand in hand. But a FF is a potential for a turnover and the ball in your hands, defense resting.

Use those early picks for lineman, preferably defense, but I'd be alright with offense as well. D line and O line are the next positions to QB that impact every player on the field.

emperorjones wrote:Very strong argument. I agree with alot of your points - Can't say I disagree with much (other than to give props to Les Fraizer, "LA" Mike Richardson, Dave Duerson & Gary Fencik as a very solid secondary)

What would you do to help the D-Line as of today? I don't see any game changing DE or DL left in FA and I'm not sure how much of a game changer you're gonna get at #49 in the 2nd round for the D-Line??

I think if the coaching doesn't bring them back to form, then D Line is Jerry's focus in 2010 FA & the draft. The secondary is fine IMO - and as you say, add a pass rush you get better results.

If he goes veteran WR now (ie Holt) & WR in the 2nd round, our entire offense is young, set & under contract for a while.

I certainly didn't mean any disrespect to the secondary of the 85 Bears, but that defense was great because of the D-line and Samuri Mike, not because of the secondary.

Well, I see that we have a thread on this forum about Edwards, Ocho Cinco, and Boldin perhaps being available for trade but no thread on Julius Peppers. I don't know if the Bears could get him, but if we could I would love it. All that anyone talks about in the draft thread is what WR the Bears should draft, but I would go D-lineman. Angelo has had some success there in the past. Alex Brown was the 104th pick, and Tank Johnson was the 47th pick.

I would still go WR in the 3rd round, and maybe in the second if a really good WR falls to us and there aren't that many good defensive linemen available. I'm not against going after WR, but I think that this organization needs to made the d-line a priority, and I feel that they haven't done that. If they go strong after WR this year, and make d-line a priority next offseason, I guess that I'll be okay with that, but then Chicago Bears fans need to realize that we won't be that good this year, and next year will be a rebuilding year on defense.

Great points, NZB.

I can't believe I'm going to take the optimist approach given my rep here but I actually have faith that Marinelli is going to make a difference, and that Ogunleye is going to turn it up a notch in his contract year, and that Mark Anderson finds his rookie form. I'll never say that Tommie Harris or Dvoracek will last a full season without getting hurt but I will say that Marcus Harrison (a 3rd rd pick with 1st round talent that slid due to his off the field issues) will take a step forward and big Anthony Adams looked like he belonged all along when he hit the field. And I've never had a problem with Alex Brown - he's not spectacular against either the run or pass but consistently strong in both areas.

Further, I think Lovie's going to get the linebackers off the line of scrimmage and move the corners closer to the line to prevent teams from getting those easy slants on us.

I agree the line - specifically the DE position - will probably need to be addressed in the draft for some insurance. I just don't know what the immediate impact is going to be given we're talking about a mid-2nd round pick. I'm a little rusty on my second tier DEs but I'll brush up.

Bottom line - if we end up picking up a #1 WR via trade or free agency then I'm totally down with getting a DE in Rd2. If not, I'd prefer to go WR in Rd2 and DE in Rd3. Yes, I think the cries of "Cutler has no weapons!!!" is overblown but WR is even more of an immediate issue than DE with the roster the way it stands today.

I see no reason a 9-7 team with some really tough losses to Atlanta, TB, and Carolina should be taking a step back to .500 ball with the addition of Cutler, a retooled OL, further maturation of Forte, Marinelli as the DL coach, Lovie Smith calling the defensive plays, Hester progressing as a true WR, and no real personnel losses to speak of (unless you're weeping over Grossman and Booker).

Drink that kool-aid !

I think an often overlooked fact is that for the amount of times we blitzed, we sure as hell did not get enough pressure or sacks.

Right now, there are holes on our team that need to be fixed and Dline/Wr seem to be staring right at us.

I agree, and thats why I hope we can get a starting caliber WR in FA and then hopefully draft a DL in round 2. Then in round 3 or 4 you can look back at WR for a "project" player to develop.

Chewie wrote:Great points, NZB.

I can't believe I'm going to take the optimist approach given my rep here but I actually have faith that Marinelli is going to make a difference, and that Ogunleye is going to turn it up a notch in his contract year, and that Mark Anderson finds his rookie form....Further, I think Lovie's going to get the linebackers off the line of scrimmage and move the corners closer to the line to prevent teams from getting those easy slants on us....I think the cries of "Cutler has no weapons!!!" is overblown...I see no reason a 9-7 team with some really tough losses to Atlanta, TB, and Carolina should be taking a step back to .500 ball...Drink that kool-aid !

OK, whoever you are - step away from the computer and log out of Chewie's account.


Actually I would be surprised if the Bears went DL at all. Defensive end is sparse this year and we are pretty young( and talented) at DT. I am thinking WR & S will be our 2nd and 3rd round picks. I think we go safety in round 2 if Britt, Iglesias, or Robiskie aren't there. Otherwise we'll snag the bext of those 3 and let Marinelli deal with the DL later.

Nice analysis NZB.

I believe you are leaving out an important aspect to the discussion, though, and that's how an improved offense will help the defense. With Cutler at the helm many aspects of the offense should improve - the running game (less players stacking the line, a seasoned Forte), the passing game (it's Cutler instead of [insert one of the last 24 Bears QB's]), both field position and time of possession (less 3 & outs), and scoring (great QB, and more FG's because of previous point). Also keep in mind that the Bears have had excellent special teams play the past few years, yielding better than average field position. Just think how well our Pro-Bowl QB should perform when given short field position.

Too many times the past few years the offense threw the defense under the bus. With less on-the-field time the defense will be fresher, allowing Tommie, Brian, and the rest of the crew to go all-out for shorter stretches of the game. You make good points about the lack of a pass rush, but hopefully fresher legs will make a significant difference in the defensive play.

emperorjones wrote:

Chewie wrote:Great points, NZB.

I can't believe I'm going to take the optimist approach given my rep here but I actually have faith that Marinelli is going to make a difference, and that Ogunleye is going to turn it up a notch in his contract year, and that Mark Anderson finds his rookie form....Further, I think Lovie's going to get the linebackers off the line of scrimmage and move the corners closer to the line to prevent teams from getting those easy slants on us....I think the cries of "Cutler has no weapons!!!" is overblown...I see no reason a 9-7 team with some really tough losses to Atlanta, TB, and Carolina should be taking a step back to .500 ball...Drink that kool-aid !

OK, whoever you are - step away from the computer and log out of Chewie's account.


Actually I would be surprised if the Bears went DL at all. Defensive end is sparse this year and we are pretty young( and talented) at DT. I am thinking WR & S will be our 2nd and 3rd round picks. I think we go safety in round 2 if Britt, Iglesias, or Robiskie aren't there. Otherwise we'll snag the bext of those 3 and let Marinelli deal with the DL later.

Ha! It's the effects of the Cutler trade. My hopes are sky-high at the moment. I don't foresee a sig bet this year for us! You could well be right on the WR/S prediction - in fact, that's where I might be leaning - I'm just saying I wouldn't find fault with going DE early depending on the player.

*rushes to research defensive ends*

Cager wrote:Nice analysis NZB.

I believe you are leaving out an important aspect to the discussion, though, and that's how an improved offense will help the defense. With Cutler at the helm many aspects of the offense should improve - the running game (less players stacking the line, a seasoned Forte), the passing game (it's Cutler instead of [insert one of the last 24 Bears QB's]), both field position and time of possession (less 3 & outs), and scoring (great QB, and more FG's because of previous point). Also keep in mind that the Bears have had excellent special teams play the past few years, yielding better than average field position. Just think how well our Pro-Bowl QB should perform when given short field position.

Too many times the past few years the offense threw the defense under the bus. With less on-the-field time the defense will be fresher, allowing Tommie, Brian, and the rest of the crew to go all-out for shorter stretches of the game. You make good points about the lack of a pass rush, but hopefully fresher legs will make a significant difference in the defensive play.

Excellent point. Less 3 and outs = fresher defense = better defense. Especially good for Tommie Harris.

And if we were to go DL with that 2nd round pick, that's right around where a guy like Jarron "I Can Jump Out of Pool" Gilbert would go. Can play DT or DE. 6'5", 288lbs, 4.87 40yd combine time was among the best for DL. Was the 2008 WAC Defensive Player of the Year. 22 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwJrEOtk41M

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXDSPbZ_OUw&feature=related

Would have noooo problem going this route if we picked up a WR via free agency.

I have high hopes that Tommie Harris will be healthy this season. it was obvious that he wasn't even 80% this past season, and it showed with him not being able to push off the line effectively. Him healthy along with Rod Marinelli as the D-line coach should help this underachieving group.

Posey H8er wrote:I have high hopes that Tommie Harris will be healthy this season. it was obvious that he wasn't even 80% this past season, and it showed with him not being able to push off the line effectively. Him healthy along with Rod Marinelli as the D-line coach should help this underachieving group.

The fact that Harris has been forced to be a part-time player to give his knees a rest - even in college - doesn't have me hopeful that he'll ever have a season in which he's truly 100%. I don't think Tommie is in for a long NFL career, unfortunately.

The # of times he's been listed on the injury report isn't for those with a weak stomach and guess who was excused from the recent mini-camp??

Date
Dec 19, 2008 Knee
Dec 10, 2008 Knee
Nov 28, 2008 Knee
Oct 31, 2008 Knee
Oct 17, 2008 Knee
Sep 26, 2008 Knee
Sep 19, 2008 Knee
Sep 12, 2008 Ankle
Sep 05, 2008 Knee
Dec 28, 2007 Knee
Dec 21, 2007 Knee
Dec 14, 2007 Knee
Nov 30, 2007 Knee
Nov 23, 2007 Knee
Nov 16, 2007 Knee
Nov 09, 2007 Hamstring
Oct 19, 2007 Hamstring
Oct 12, 2007 Knee
Oct 05, 2007 Knee
Sep 28, 2007 Knee
Sep 23, 2007 Knee
Aug 01, 2007 Hamstring
Dec 12, 2006 Left hamstring
Dec 12, 2006 Left hamstring
Dec 06, 2006 Knee
Dec 04, 2006 Sprained knee
Dec 03, 2006 Leg
Dec 01, 2006 Knee
Nov 15, 2006 Back
Sep 13, 2006 Ankle
Nov 30, 2005 Knee
Nov 04, 2005 Groin
Dec 29, 2004 Ankle
Dec 08, 2004 Knee
Dec 01, 2004 Ankle
Nov 10, 2004 Ill

While Tommie DOES play hurt to his credit, it tends to hurt the whole defense in the process and teams can run right at him. It's a shame given his obvious talent when he's healthy.

If the Bears can walk away with Michael Johnson, the DE out of Georgia Tech, than they might have found a guy. Johnson is incredibly talented but doesn't bring it every down. I think this is where having guys like Brown and Ogulneye are huge, along with Rod Maranelli. I think he will get everything he can out of his d-line and if they get Johnson and he develops, he can be a steal. Of course he can be a bust, buts its the second round, sink or swim time.

Add to it the Defensive ends in FA are terrible, and the Bears need to address this early in the draft.

There's was more than one site that had us taking Michael Johnson in the first round at some point and I wasn't wild about that. He looks like a John Thierry type - he looks the part and has eye-popping combine numbers but just isn't a football player. At least that the impression I got. That being said, you're talking about the second round and if he slid that far, it's probably worth the risk at that point.