RealGM

You'll find one very predictable thing in common with every top team in my annual Tick Off Half The Football Fans In America Post-Free-Agency, Post-Draft NFL Power Rankings: quarterbacks. The best teams have 'em. The worst teams don't, at least not that we can see yet. Look at the top dozen teams. Every one has a quarterback you wouldn't be shocked to see playing deep into the playoffs this year.

It's still 11 weeks before most teams enter training camp, but the personnel hay is in the barn for almost every team. Maybe Anquan Boldin gets dealt; maybe Brett Favre comes back (more on him in 10 Things). But there won't be much major roster-tweaking before the camp begins. So here we go, 1 to 32, with a surprise or two, starting at number four:

1. New England
Teams don't stay the same in the NFL. That's the old bromide. But tell me: What's the difference between the Patriots of 2007 and the Patriots who enter the season in 2009? I'll tell you the biggest thing -- concern about Tom Brady's knee. And if there were any real reason to be concerned, Bill Belichick wouldn't have traded Matt Cassel to Kansas City.

New England was seventh in the league in scoring with Brady playing one quarter in 2008; it'll be in the top three, easily, with him back. With new young talent in the defensive backfield -- Belichick can mix and match all the toys he's gathered over the past two offseasons, maybe playing Shawn Springs sparingly some weeks to keep him healthy for January -- New England should have enough ammo to be competitive with the best quarterbacks on the schedule. It was 5-1 down the stretch, including 4-0 on the road, as many of its young defenders grew up. I don't see much downside.

2. Pittsburgh
Other than losing Bryant McFadden (free agency, Arizona), nothing significant happened to a deep roster this offseason. You can be sure Mike Tomlin won't be much of a laurel-rester, but it's always quasi-impossible to repeat.

I had a friend of Ben Roethlisberger's tell me the best thing that could have happened to him was not being MVP of the Super Bowl. After he led one of the best playoff drives ever to give Pittsburgh its Super Bowl title, Santonio Holmes got the MVP. Big Ben said he was fine with it, but now he's got something else to shoot for and some perceived critics to shut up.

I worry a little about Hines Ward surviving another physical season, because there's not a good possession-receiver/playmaker behind him. I worry about Casey Hampton being in shape. When those are your biggest worries about a team, that team's in pretty good shape.

3. New York Giants
I've said I wished the Giants had acquired a veteran receiver like Anquan Boldin, because no team ever rides the backs of one or two rookie receivers to the Super Bowl. That's the biggest question on the deepest front-seven team in football (sorry, Ravens). Tom Coughlin and GM Jerry Reese know you need to be six or seven deep on the defensive front because you'll have an injury or two or three along the way. The Giants have a strange schedule -- three of the first four on the road, two of the last three on the road -- but a veteran team that has always played well on the road should survive it. New York has an excellent chance to go to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years.

4. Chicago
I may not like how Jay Cutler babied his way out of Denver, but by Labor Day, the football world will have forgotten, and by Thanksgiving, the most popular baby name in Chicagoland will be Jay. (Unless it's Jerry, as in Angelo, the man who stuck his neck out and made this deal.) Cutler's a big-time player, and I suspect we'll find out over the next few years if he has nerves of steel and can win the big game.

Now, there's two things we don't know about Cutler and this offense. There's not a great receiver in the house and no promise of one on the way (Angelo should have guaranteed Torry Holt more money to get him to come to the Windy City). So Cutler's going to have to make do with the Devin Hesters and Rashied Davises, apparently. (Not that there's anything wrong with Hester. But he should be a third receiver, using his speed to game-break.)

Two: How good of a leader can Cutler be, coming in with the knock that he chafes on some teammates. It'll be interesting to see if he meshes well with Brian Urlacher; I don't take for granted that he will. Because of the Cutler factor and because I don't love the defense the way I did two or three years ago, I didn't want to leap the Bears over so many other teams. But then I went back and looked at their 2008 numbers. The bedrock stats for a good defense, I've always thought, are opponents yards per rush, turnovers forced and opponents' yards per pass. The yards per rush, 3.4, was excellent, third-best in the league. Turnovers forced, 32, was very good, second in the league. And yards per pass play by foes, 6.20, was eighth in the league. All good. If Cutler can lead an offense that puts up 400 points, only a point and a fraction more than a year ago, the Bears should win 12.

5. Indianapolis
As long as Peyton Manning walks, talks and leads the way he does, the biggest question about the Colts is what they do in January, not October. I'll be interested, as we all will be, to see what kind of tweaking takes place on the defense, with a more aggressive style now that Tony Dungy and defensive coordinator Ron Meeks are gone and the more aggressive Larry Coyer has been hired to run that unit. I don't expect an overhaul of the Tampa 2, but I do expect the secondary to be more aggressive, particularly in some blitz situations, and I expect emerging star safety Melvin Bullitt to be used more, even with Bob Sanders in the game.

ChronicKerr wrote:Risdon ranks us 19th

http://football.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ ... ower_poll/

19. Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler was probably worth the price, but it won’t show this season. An aging, paper-thin defense that isn’t anywhere close to being as good as hyped more than offsets what a legit franchise QB can do behind a moderately upgraded OL and with one proven legit NFL WR. Not having anyone to spell Matt Forte is a huge gamble with a great young talent.

emperorjones wrote:Media types stating that we have no receivers so we will suck make no sense, since Orton threw to the same receivers. At least Iceness focused on the defense which is a legitimate concern.

Cliff Levingston wrote:It's not nearly as big of a concern as most people make it out to be. People just look at the yards allowed which tells about 2% of the story. Some other considerations:

- 35% third down conversion percent against, 5th best in the league.
- 22 interceptions, 3rd best in the league.
- 10 fumbles recovered, 16th best in the league.
- 21.9 points per game against, 16th best in the league.
- 93.5 rush yards against, 5th best in the league.
- 3.4 yards per rush against, 3rd best in the league.
- 4.9 yards per play against, 6th best in the league.
- 33:27 average time on the field, 4th most in the league.

Not too shabby especially considering that hideous time on the field.

emperorjones wrote:Great stats Cliff. The NFL needs a stat per minute breakdown for defenses. Or stat per play like an NBA per 48 min. Anyone know of any site that keeps something like that? It would show a true ranking of defenses. (I'm to lazy today to chart it )

emperorjones wrote:Wow. not to laugh at your misfortune Cliff but I hate it when that happens.
I think you're on to something with the "per 30 minutes of defense" stat. Really rubs in the sack stat - but I'm more confident in the defense overall if it moves our yards and points allowed into the top 10.

Icness wrote:but I'm seeing 6-7 wins. For now anyways.

Icness wrote:You don't want to know where I'd have ranked you without the Cutler move.

Some of my rationale:
--I think Urlacher is real close to being done
--I don't trust Harris will ever be right again. I actually like Marcus Harrison but he's a complementary player, not an initiator, and Lovie's D demands a genuine initiator in the middle. Two of them really.
--I'm extremely concerned with Forte's anticipated workload that he will break down or lose effectiveness. No team has less behind their starting RB other than maybe Cleveland and Houston
--the pass rush worries me a lot. I do like Gilbert, but consider how little success Sed Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, Okoye, Carriker, and other DE/DT types have had as rookies. Expecting more than 2.5 sacks and about 25 tackles is overly optimistic. Marinelli might help, but he didn't do much for Shaun Cody, Cory Redding, or Alama-Francis. He's a teacher, not a motivator.
--safety is a real problem, esp. with the pasing attacks in the division. Add Favre and that probably gets worse.
--the chasm at WR
--Cutler's propensity for turning the ball over at the most inopportune times
--Orlando Pace's health, and to a lesser extent Kreutz's advancing age
--special teams regression, though that's minor
--I still believe Lovie is among the worst game-day coaches in the league. He hired the worst one to basically run his defense.

Like I said in the blurb, I think it's a short-term funk that will develop into something pretty special in 2010 and beyond--if Angelo decides to spend a little $$ on some defensive upgrades and a 3rd down back that are proven.

Icness wrote:--I think Urlacher is real close to being done

--I don't trust Harris will ever be right again. I actually like Marcus Harrison but he's a complementary player, not an initiator, and Lovie's D demands a genuine initiator in the middle. Two of them really.

--I'm extremely concerned with Forte's anticipated workload that he will break down or lose effectiveness. No team has less behind their starting RB other than maybe Cleveland and Houston

--the pass rush worries me a lot. I do like Gilbert, but consider how little success Sed Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, Okoye, Carriker, and other DE/DT types have had as rookies. Expecting more than 2.5 sacks and about 25 tackles is overly optimistic. Marinelli might help, but he didn't do much for Shaun Cody, Cory Redding, or Alama-Francis. He's a teacher, not a motivator.

--safety is a real problem, esp. with the pasing attacks in the division. Add Favre and that probably gets worse.

--the chasm at WR

--Cutler's propensity for turning the ball over at the most inopportune times

--Orlando Pace's health, and to a lesser extent Kreutz's advancing age

--special teams regression, though that's minor

--I still believe Lovie is among the worst game-day coaches in the league. He hired the worst one to basically run his defense.

I'm seeing 6-7 wins.

emperorjones wrote:
hmmmm...hey Chewie, I think we should make a sig/avatar bet with Icness