Here are some thoughts I just wrote up. Obviously, all the cool formatting is at the site JoseMesaIsDead, for CLE sports fans who want to get over the "woe is me" attitude.
http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/176088297/bqe-vs-daIn my mind, the Browns have an interesting decision to make at the quarterback position. And when I say “the Browns” I really mean Eric Mangini because let’s be honest, we all know who’s calling the shots.
On one hand, you have Brady Quinn, who had a very high completion percentage in the pre-season (67.7% through 31 attempts) with 1 TD and 1 INT but little regular season game experience and an arm that may not be capable of consistently throwing the deep out. Also, he apparently does not use MySpace.
On the other hand, you have the man Clevelanders love to hate, Derek Anderson and his below average completion percentage (54.6% for his career and 56.5% in his 2007 Pro Bowl season). In the pre-season so far, DA has hit 57.7% of his passes on 26 attempts with zero TD passes and 2 INT. There’s no question about Anderson’s ability to make the big play, but he’ll also make mistakes with inaccurate tosses and struggles to connect on passes shorter than 10 yards (54.2% last year and 57.9% in 2007 - league average is 67%). Anderson also helped the team win 9 games in 2007 before the implosion that was 2008.
If I haven’t written about it here before, I’ve thought about it and commented on cleveland.com - I’m wary of using completion percentage as a gauge of a quarterback’s performance. Not only can connecting on longer passes offset incompletions on short passes (the simple math: 1-3 for 40 yards vs. 2-3 for 15 yards), the difference between what Anderson actually completed in 2007 and what he would have completed had he thrown at 65% is pretty small - 2.8 completions per game (he averaged 32.9 attempts per game that year). The difference between Anderson’s percentage and the average - 60% - is even smaller: 1.1 completions per game.
Additionally, that same 2007 season Anderson led the NFL in yards per completion with 12.7 and was very good at yards per attempt with 7.2 (Tom Brady led the league at 8.3).
Yards per attempt is the key Anderson statistic, really - he’s beating BQE in the pre-season on this number as well. It’s the only number he’s ahead on.
What you’ve probably come to think at this point is that I’m trying to defend Anderson. Yes, I sort of am, but only because I think we tend to remember the interception he threw in the 2007 Cincinnati game - one play - above everything else he accomplished that season. 2008 I’m willing to write off the face of the earth due to the debacle that was the Romeo Crennel coaching program, which was only aided and abetted by the calamity of Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards - when sh*t started to go bad last season, there was no turning back. There was no one capable of pulling the whole thing back together.
I also don’t believe it’s fair for us to look at the pre-season and say, “well, if Edwards hadn’t dropped that pass in the Lions game, Quinn would’ve had another TD instead of another INT” and not acknowledge that Braylon dropped more passes than anyone else in the NFL last year, the majority of which were thrown by DA.
But really, the previous paragraphs only make one thing clear - we know a lot more about Anderson at this point than we do about Quinn.
Well, we do know he likes Bret Michaels. And…
We also know he voted for John McCain.
Aside from that, we don’t have much of a platform from which we can empirically discuss Quinn’s attributes. And simple stats are not great indicators in football because of the complexity of the game. They’re especially noisy in the pre-season, where they encapsulate a very small sample size and are jumbled by the level of competition, e.g. the Titans played their starters through the first half, the Browns into the fourth quarter, and broken situations and rhythms (Quinn and Anderson being shuffled in and out).
So let’s forget the stats. Let’s talk about the different offensive dynamics each quarterback provides.
I am not Eric Mangini. He also knows a lot more about football than I do, but as an outside observer, I can see the quarterback decision potentially coming down to what type of offense Mangini wants to play: does he want to concentrate on the big play or do he want long drives that burn clock?
The first scenario, obviously, means Anderson - the second means Quinn.
I have to wonder…if Braylon Edwards is the Browns’ best weapon on offense, and Anderson can utilize him better than Quinn, do you effectively limit your offense by making Quinn the quarterback?
It’s an interesting conversation, and one that’s also directly tied to the quality of the Browns defense as well as how Mangini sees the future of the team. I’ll write a little more about these issues later in the week - we’ve got time, after all, it’s not like Mangini is ever anxious to make information known.