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[Preseason Game 1] Houston at San Antonio Game Thread

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moofs
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Re: [Preseason Game 1] Houston at San Antonio Game Thread 

Post#41 » by moofs » Wed Oct 7, 2009 2:56 pm

By the way, dhighway, would you agree with this theory? I think I've brought it up here before, but this is my glaringly-obvious support example for why I like WP48 and how it valuates rebounding and shooting efficiency. (I can't claim that with PawsMin, aware of it, just not as familiar with it)

I like rebounders.
The reason the 76ers went to the finals was rebounders and possession-generating guys, because their offense was hideous. Iverson was shooting like 40%, so when mutombo got every rebound on the planet, Iverson had essentially a new possession to get off a 40% shot. This effectively means that when whoever got a shot, they ended up with fewer chances than the Sixers did (though after doing research on it some time ago, it wasn't as big of a difference as I'd thought, but that might have been due to not getting Mutombo until later in the season). By Iverson's second shot, he had 2 chances at 40% to hit a shot instead of 1, which means his effective shooting rate was higher than his actual shooting rate. Their second year, they lost rebounders and defense, so Iverson's flaws were exposed, and he never got on a team with enough rebounding to make up for his inefficiency again. I'm convinced that if you put Jordan (even OLD Jordan) on that Finals-bound Sixers team, that it would have been a team for the ages.
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Re: [Preseason Game 1] Houston at San Antonio Game Thread 

Post#42 » by RaoulDuke79 » Wed Oct 7, 2009 6:06 pm

Chase Barryinger will be what I call him, I refuse to jump on the Birdinger Bandwagon!
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Re: [Preseason Game 1] Houston at San Antonio Game Thread 

Post#43 » by Guy986 » Wed Oct 7, 2009 10:44 pm

RaoulDuke79 wrote:Chase Barryinger will be what I call him, I refuse to jump on the Birdinger Bandwagon!


:nonono:
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Re: [Preseason Game 1] Houston at San Antonio Game Thread 

Post#44 » by dhighway61 » Thu Oct 8, 2009 3:47 am

moofs wrote:By the way, dhighway, would you agree with this theory? I think I've brought it up here before, but this is my glaringly-obvious support example for why I like WP48 and how it valuates rebounding and shooting efficiency. (I can't claim that with PawsMin, aware of it, just not as familiar with it)

I like rebounders.


I'd definitely agree with that. According to Wins Produced, the 76ers had four players who produced more wins than The Answer. Especially impressive is Dikembe Mutombo, who posted about a .340 WP48. That's superstar territory (Garnett in the Celtics championship year had a WP48 of .287). In only 875 minutes, he produced more wins than Iverson who played 2979.

As for the equations you asked for, you calculate WP48 like this:

Code: Select all

Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST– FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF

PAWSmin = Win Score / MINS - Position Average
Position averages are: [PG = .132 | SG = .128 | SF = .152 | PF = .215 | C = .225]

Estimated WP48 = .104 + 1.621 * PAWSmin


PAWSmin correlates almost completely with WP48, but since Dr. Berri uses WP48 most of the time, I really prefer the estimated WP48 over PAWSmin (even though it isn't 100% correct).

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