2010-11 Salary Question

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I just don't think the Rockets are willing to pay that much for a player whose coach sits him in crunch time. I could easily see the Rockets letting him go,and either starting Andersen for his shooting/spacing for Yao or Jeffries for his rebounding/D and developing Hill and the First Rd ala Landry

If the Rockets are pretty certain they can get Bosh-or,shuddering,Amare-there's no reason to sign Scola.
The same financial issues w/signing Scola apply to any player he would be sign-n-traded for. The Rockets would have a player getting $5-7mil who effectively costs them $10-12mil. We tend to forget Morey's background and I seriously doubt he sees value in effectively paying near max money for a non-impact player.
Remember all the time we wasted on thinking the Rockets wouldn't just let Artest walk w/out getting something? Well,he let Artest walk,and he did so before knowing if League would grant an exception for Yao and not knowing whether or not Ariza would accept LA's offer.

I disagree. Morey values assets more than anything. If Scola leaves, it will be via sign&trade (although that would be difficult due BYC).

I'd also say it's very likely that Morey will match any offer up to about $6mil for Lowry. He's a huge part of the team and there's no way Morey just let's him go like that.

What a rather big contract for Lowry however would do, is increase the likelihood of Battier being traded.

That's where Jeffries and his contract comes into play.
I could see Morey keeping all of the key guard/wing players (AB,LB,KM,CB,TA,SB) and then try to unload Jeffries to a team under the cap. He'll have to include other assests (Taylor/Hill/picks) to get it done, but that shouldn't hurt too much if the Rockets can keep all the other key/core guys. Jeffries could also be included in a sign&trade, but that seems to be rather unlikely, since nobody wants him.

As for bigs, Morey sure could go after a big name like Bosh, Amare or even Boozer, but I just don't see it. Houston sure has assets, but most of those assets are draft picks and young players (cheap contracts) and not tradeable (big) contracts. I think Morey will ultimately just stay with Yao, Scola, Hayes and Andersen and add another big via the draft. If Alexander is willing to dig deep you could add another big via free agency, which would then lead to a pretty costly, but also very capable depth chart:

Yao Draft/(MLE) Andersen
Scola Draft/(MLE) Hayes
Ariza Battier Budinger
Martin Budinger Lowry
Brooks Lowry

[moofs]

I'm imagining Scola, a 2nd tier starter, somehow as a backup and smiling, however unrealistic.

[KiDdFrESh]

Houston Rockets 2010 Off-Season


Roster:

PG Aaron Brooks
SG Kevin Martin
C Yao Ming
SF Trevor Ariza
PF Chuck Hayes
SG Chase Budinger
PF Jordan Hill
C David Andersen
SG Jermaine Taylor
PF Jared Jefferies

Cap Holds:

PG Kyle Lowry
PF Luis Scola


1.) Exercise Team Option on Chuck Hayes


NBA Draft

14th pick: F Damion James

Trade with Memphis:

SG Jermaine Taylor for the 29th pick and draft G Willie Warren



Free Agency

S&T for Chris Bosh

Rockets trade: Ariza, Brooks, Jefferies, Hill for Bosh, Weems

Re-sign Luis Scola to 4 years 28 million
Re-sign Kyle Lowry to 4 years 20 million



New Roster:

PG: Lowry, Warren
SG: Martin, Budinger, Weems
C: Yao, Hayes, Andersen
SF: Battier, James
PF: Bosh, Scola

Total team salary: $72,207,001

Use the MLE on a couple of veterans.. PG & SF and we are set

[tisbee]

Let's take a closer look at the Rockets and see where it leads us.

Ariza,Budinger,Martin signed for next 4 yrs. Yao and Lowry are going to get multi-yr deals as well. They are the core the team will build around. They will make @ $40mil in combined salaries.
They are the starting SG,SF,C,Sixth man and back-up PG-who will see alot of off-guard minutes under Adelman.

The bench will need a couple of rotation bigs,a rotation wing and some roster fill. one of the bigs will be a young player and the other prob a vet on a modest contract.(Modest as in $2-3mil,like Barry,Andersen,Hayes,Scola,Landry got and what Morey offered Gortat.) They will prob combine for @ $13-14mil.(Obviously Battier and Jeffries make much more than this,but they are expirings-assuming they aren't traded,which I see likely as noted below-and we are looking at the future.)

W/Lux Tax thresholds prob being in neighborhood of $66-67mil the Rockets would be @ $12-14mil under the Lux Tax. They would also need a starting PG,PF. This is more than enough room to sign Scola and re-sign Brooks at a salary equal or in excess of Lowry's. But will the Rockets do so?

Morey has accumulated a vast assortment of trade goods. Battier and Jeffries have largish expiring contracts and are still viable,valuable players. W/the two Firsts in 2012,he can trade away 2011,2012 AND 2013 Firsts.Taylor and Llull are young players w/potential. Scola could be included w/a sign-n-trade. Trading for a PF,Hill could be included. For a PG,Brooks could be included.
W/the core taking up most of the salary cap,signing a max FA is pretty much out of the question for the next few yrs.
This Summer is Morey's best chance to trade for a max player as he will rarely have as many tradeable assets as he has now.

If Les is truly willing to go some $5mil or so over Lux Tax,the Rockets are in a position to add a max player to go w/a talented younster on a rookie contract at the PF and PG spots.
While the obvious moves are going after Bosh-or Amare-and maybe making another run at Rubio,a Morey-type move would be going after Anthony Randolph,Jason Thompson and taking on a bad contract to do so.
But.....what if Morey is targeting really big game? I could see him making a helluva strong bid for Chris Paul. He's got enough that he could trade for Paul,take on Posey and give NO plenty of value.
First we can dismiss the CP3 won't be traded as he is NO basketball for 3 reasons.
1)They're not making money w/Paul. If Jordan is buying the Bobcats for $175mil,it depresses other NBA franchises value,so Hornets owner may have to stick w/his team for awhile and wants to stop bleeding cash.
2)Shane Battier is great in the local community. He will go a long way towards replacing Paul in the business/charity community in NO.
3)Most importantly,Shinn is the owner who p****ed away the top attendance fan base at the time and moved his team to a smaller market. Anyone think he gives a s*** about NO. And let's not forget he was thiiiis close to leaving NO and taking the Hornets w/him.
Battier,Brooks,Jeffries,Taylor for Paul and Posey saves some $4mil in salaries,and w/a couple of Firsts included,NO could send off Songalia,Jeffries w/one of those Firsts and get under the Lux Tax.
Far-fetched,but I wouldn't be suprised if Morey isn't considering it.

[Bruteque]

That's where Jeffries and his contract comes into play.
I could see Morey keeping all of the key guard/wing players (AB,LB,KM,CB,TA,SB) and then try to unload Jeffries to a team under the cap. He'll have to include other assests (Taylor/Hill/picks) to get it done, but that shouldn't hurt too much if the Rockets can keep all the other key/core guys. Jeffries could also be included in a sign&trade, but that seems to be rather unlikely, since nobody wants him.

As for bigs, Morey sure could go after a big name like Bosh, Amare or even Boozer, but I just don't see it. Houston sure has assets, but most of those assets are draft picks and young players (cheap contracts) and not tradeable (big) contracts. I think Morey will ultimately just stay with Yao, Scola, Hayes and Andersen and add another big via the draft.

Er, heck no. That is thinking NY style. Morey acted like Jeffries' contract was toxic in the NY trade to get the 1st round pick swap + 1st round pick + Jordan Hill from NY for the "privilage" of dumping Jeffries' contract on Houston, because NY has few cheap assets and needed the cap room right now. NY had to take the offer because Houston was the only game in town offering cap relief this season.

Remember, as soon as the season ends, Jeffries becomes an expiring. In the hands of NY (few cheap assets), Jeffries was an obstacle in signing a big-time FA outright in the offseason. In the hands of Houston (lots of cheap assets), Jeffries is an asset as an expiring in the offseason to package with Houston's cheap talent in a sign-and-trade for a big-time FA or just a straight trade for a big-time player in the offseason.

There is no way Houston is going to bleed talent just to dump Jeffries' contract when they specifically got him to package as an expiring with cheap assets in the offseason to potentially sign-and-trade for a big-time FA or straight trade for a big-time player. Of course, it helps a lot that Houston has a unselfish star, low tax, and billions of oversea fans, that big-time FAs actually want to come to Houston (a necessary ingredient in a sign-and-trade).

If nothing happens, Houston can always pay Jeffries up until the next trade deadline, and he will still be worth something to somebody as an expiring.