Post#4 » by spolgar » Mon Dec 12, 2011 8:35 am
This is a good strategy:
The restricted free agent contract is a double edge sword. I think of this as an auction where there are two class of biders. Class a bidders makes bids, the lone class b bidder reviews the bids and chooses to match, and then gets to keep the product.
13 million a year for a 10 and 7 player who a) just lost a bunch of weight and b) is still improving is a bit much, but you are betting that he's going to be better than Dalebert, which costs a bit less and has quite a bit lower ceiling. If you know you a) don't mind over paying now and getting market value latter and b) your opponent in bidding doesn't mind over paying either, then the worst you can do is figure out how much they are willing to pay and drive up your opponents cost of doing business. The salary cap is not going to be anyones friend now, and it's really going to punish in 2 years, right when Marc Gasol's raises start really getting hairy. The griz loses whatever cap flexibility they have left if they want to keep together their core, making this one of those all in propositions in the long run.
If Memphis gets lucky and no one in their core becomes dead wood, then they remain competetive for years. If Houston didn't bid, that would be the case anyway. If Memphis releases Gasol, Houston gets the piece they covet, as well as having a good hook for gunning after older brother. If someone on the Memphis starting 5 needs to be replaced, they are now all locked into long term contracts, which means they will have to give up another piece as a form of enticement. All of a sudden they become less formidable.