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Jeremy Lin - An interesting case

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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#41 » by Daggy » Sun Dec 16, 2012 4:11 pm

TMU wrote:
inquisitive wrote:the question for this season is, should Lin come off the bench and do what he does, or should we just pay Harden and Lin together for the rest of this season to keep trying to get that chemistry going between the two? If Douglas and Harden are playing better together, we might as well have Lin coming off the bench at least for the remainder of this season..

I do think McHale is just going with the flow...if TD is playing well at the end of games, he is sticking with him and same for Lin...just trying to win games.


We need to look at long-term and both of these guys will have to learn how to play together effectively. Lin coming off the bench shouldn't be a consideration unless Toney surpasses him to be starter. Both of these guys are young and they've only been playing for less than 3 months. It's still too early to tell if McHale is an appropriate coach for these two, but these two definitely need someone who can direct them and help develop an offensive scheme that flows better. Patience is needed.


I agree, this season won't be a championship season anyway, TD is a good doing some 3-pointers, but if you look at his size, his distribution skills, you know he's hit his ceiling or is very close to it. How many years is TD going to be with the Rockets? He's not a long term solution so what's the point of developing him, while there's not much room for him to develop anyway? Lin may not be a long term solution, either, but he MAY be, so it's important to use this season to try to mesh Lin and Harden together, if it works out the Rockets would have struck gold having a dynamic young back court core. If it doesn't work out... this season won't be that much different anyway.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#42 » by Zubby » Sun Dec 16, 2012 9:32 pm

For what its worth Lin's stats with Woodson last year:
13ppg 5.4ast 4reb 1stl .4blk 3.7to

This year through 23 games
11ppg 5.9ast 4reb 1.9stl .5blk 2.7to


so yea...

plays the passing lanes well!
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#43 » by LarsV8 » Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:01 am

Its just a bad fit.

We need a PG who is comfortable with Harden running the show, can spot up shoot, defend with ball handling skills a secondary need.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#44 » by Guy986 » Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:10 am

LarsV8 wrote:Its just a bad fit.

We need a PG who is comfortable with Harden running the show, can spot up shoot, defend with ball handling skills a secondary need.


Yea this team just need a veteran PG who can hit the 3 and not turn the ball over.

Someone like prime Fish, Jose Calderon, Luke Ridnour, Steve Blake etc
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#45 » by TMU » Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:30 am

Guy986 wrote:
LarsV8 wrote:Its just a bad fit.

We need a PG who is comfortable with Harden running the show, can spot up shoot, defend with ball handling skills a secondary need.


Yea this team just need a veteran PG who can hit the 3 and not turn the ball over.

Someone like prime Fish, Jose Calderon, Luke Ridnour, Steve Blake etc


Rafer Alston. Respect.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#46 » by rockmanslim » Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:05 am

Guy986 wrote:
LarsV8 wrote:Its just a bad fit.

We need a PG who is comfortable with Harden running the show, can spot up shoot, defend with ball handling skills a secondary need.


Yea this team just need a veteran PG who can hit the 3 and not turn the ball over.

Someone like prime Fish, Jose Calderon, Luke Ridnour, Steve Blake etc


Sounds like 2011 J. Kidd
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#47 » by spaceballer » Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:26 am

Zubby wrote:For what its worth Lin's stats with Woodson last year:
13ppg 5.4ast 4reb 1stl .4blk 3.7to

This year through 23 games
11ppg 5.9ast 4reb 1.9stl .5blk 2.7to


so yea...

plays the passing lanes well!


The numbers a bit skewed because the Woodson/Lin Knicks were blowing out teams early in some games, so that the starters got to rest instead of racking up stats in the garbage minutes. You probably need to adjust the stats to per minutes to be able to more accurately compare the production of the Woodson/Lin and the Rocket/Lin. The Woodson/Lin performance was quite respectable (not Linsanity numbers) but he was beginning to play well with Melo after D'antoni was gone, they're not as bad as your per game/unadjusted for minutes stats look, since the starters got a lot of rest out of blowing out teams early.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#48 » by Zubby » Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:33 pm

Ok thanks I didnt notice that spaceballer.
So adjust to his mpg this year
Under Woodson it is:
15.2ppg 6.3ast 4.7reb 1.2stl .5blk 4.3to
Aside from ppg and t/o being higher still very similar

Here is the interesting thing I noticed, he is averaging more fga here in Houston at 10 per game... with Woodson he was at 9 per game.

Its the freethrows here he is getting to the line 2.4x a game with Woodson it was 5.1x a game and adjust to mpg here it would of been 6x a game... :o



So now off to hoopsdata where I can't(at least I dont think I can) separate his games from Woodson/Dantoni
In New York:
Shots at the rim:
3.9 attempts 52.9%

Here in Houston shots at rim:
4.1 attempts 56.1%



so ummm yea...



Guys Lin isn't getting much better unless the refs give him the NY treatment... gotta wait til next year

Also he shoots a lot better off the dribble than spot-up.


Bringing me to the SAS game. I didnt see the 1st half but iirc I had the stats on my phone and in the 1st half it looked like Lin again was having a typical houston night... Asik on the other hand had like 10fta by end of 1st half.


Now im not gonna give Lin the benefit of the doubt and say he saw this, and that the refs were hand us fouls because I have come to the conclusion Lin is a low iq player.
Someone, probably McHale told Lin to wake up and just attack the rim, refs are calling everything.

In the 2nd half Lin comes out and makes a killing at the line, his confidence is back , has a great game.


kevin martin????
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#49 » by spaceballer » Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:52 pm

Is the hoops data combined woodson/d'antoni stats for the entire season or for when he was a starter? Because if it's for the entire season, then it's pretty much worthless since I would assume it includes all those garbage minute games he played prior to his breakout.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#50 » by Zubby » Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:09 pm

spaceballer wrote:Is the hoops data combined woodson/d'antoni stats for the entire season or for when he was a starter? Because if it's for the entire season, then it's pretty much worthless since I would assume it includes all those garbage minute games he played prior to his breakout.

Yea its for the entire last year.

Not worthless because the only reason I posted those was to show he attacks the rim for most of his fg attempts... in comparison
James Harden attempts 6.5 shots at the rim 60%(lower than I thought)
Lin's at 4.1(56%)
Tony Parker is at 5.5 attempts(67%)


Lin just isnt getting calls when he drives
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#51 » by spaceballer » Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:38 pm

Zubby wrote:
spaceballer wrote:Is the hoops data combined woodson/d'antoni stats for the entire season or for when he was a starter? Because if it's for the entire season, then it's pretty much worthless since I would assume it includes all those garbage minute games he played prior to his breakout.

Yea its for the entire last year.

Not worthless because the only reason I posted those was to show he attacks the rim for most of his fg attempts... in comparison
James Harden attempts 6.5 shots at the rim 60%(lower than I thought)
Lin's at 4.1(56%)
Tony Parker is at 5.5 attempts(67%)


Lin just isnt getting calls when he drives


Garbage time minutes aren't that useful because the level of competition is different. Nonetheless, the recent insider article shows Lin is still getting to the line just as much when Harden is gone, contrary to your point that he's not getting calls (he gets them when Harden isn't there).

Espn Insider wrote:But look what happens to Lin's numbers in the 106 minutes he has played when Harden hits the bench: 19.7 points, 7.5 assists, 5.1 rebounds with an above-average 55.4 TS% and a 17.7 PER.

That's pretty darn good. If those numbers look familiar, there's a reason for it. Check out Lin's per-36 minute stat line in New York last season: 19.6 points, 8.3 assists and 4.1 rebounds. 55.2 TS% and a 19.9 PER.

What we're seeing here is when Lin plays without Harden, his shooting percentages and scoring rates are almost identical to his numbers from last season. In other words, he has shown he can still be the player that took the world by storm last season. But when he plays next to the ball-dominant shooting guard, everything changes. Context, as you can see, is incredibly important.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out why Lin hasn't been a perfect complement next to Harden. They're both masters of the pick-and-roll, but the problem is that they can't run a pick-and-roll at the same time. Because Harden is the better player of the two, Lin usually plays off the ball and lets Harden go to work. But if Lin had a reliable spot-up jump shot, this wouldn't be an issue. Unfortunately, Lin ranks 79th among 121 players in catch-and-shoot efficiency this season, according to SynergySports (minimum 50 such shots). Ray Allen, he is not.


Also, with respect to getting to the line:

Espn Insider wrote:But without Harden on the court? Lin visits the free throw line more than three times as often (6.5 attempts per 36 minutes) while his attempts from beyond the arc essentially doesn't change (3.1 attempts). Lin's averages last season: 7.0 free throw attempts and 2.9 attempts from deep. Mirror images.

Not to beat a dead horse, but the numbers tell us that the only difference between the current Lin and Linsanity appears to be Harden's presence. Now what can the Rockets do about it?

----snip----

It bears mentioning that Lin is still just 24 years old and also coming off offseason knee surgery. He still has room to grow as a professional basketball player, considering he has only 87 games under his belt. Since 1995, only one other player has averaged 15 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds and 2 steals per 36 minutes in their first three seasons in the league. His name: Chris Paul.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/conversa ... my-lin-now


Basically, the coaches don't have the skill to mesh Lin and Harden together. McHale and Sampson aren't able to draw up the type of complicated interweaving offenses with lots of movement, screens, and cutting needed to mesh two slasher guards. Their offense begins and ends with using youth and young legs to outrun the opponent to push the pace for fastbreak points, or falling back on tossing the rock into Harden's hands to iso/pnr while most of the team sits at the 3pt and just watches him for spacing.

I don't know if this is because they didn't have time to do a training camp with Harden to put in offensive sets that maximize the rest of the team, but Sampson and McHale haven't demonstrated any offensive creativity thus far. And they're failing to mesh Lin and Harden.

As the ESPN Insider article's stats indicate, Lin is still getting the same Linsanity stats, but only when Harden is not on the floor, because the coaches can't mesh them.

Maybe it's a failure of the coaches, or it's as lack of time/practice/chemistry, or maybe it's because it will prove impossible to mesh them. If you're a Rockets fan, you'll be hoping it's the first two options, so that you can fix it with an offseason to practice or change Sampson/McHale for a creative offensive coach. If it's the last option, and these two young, unselfish, teamfirst guards really have incompatible playstyles because they're redundant skillsets, then Lin will probably be traded, since a Linsanity Lin (which the ESPN stats say he's still playing as when Harden is not there) probably has more trade value to the team than running him off the bench as a 6th man.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#52 » by madbucky » Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:36 pm

The ESPN Insider article from Tom Haberstroh today was astounding.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... my-lin-now
(Yes, it's a subscription article, but you can find it posted on other forums)

Lin per 36 stats when playing with Harden:
10.7 pts, 6.5 ast, 4.3 reb, 2.1 FTA, 2.9 3PTA, 46.5% TS%, 12.1 PER

Lin per 36 stats without Harden:
19.7 pts, 7.5 ast, 5.1 reb, 6.5 FTA, 3.1 3PTA, 55.4% TS%, 17.7 PER

Lin's per 36 stats on Knicks last year:
19.6 pts, 8.3 ast, 4.1 reb, 7.0 FTA, 2.9 3PTA, 55.2% TS%, 19.9 PER
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#53 » by spaceballer » Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:54 pm

The Sports Illustrated article (no subscription required) is similarly astounding.
http://nba.si.com/2012/12/17/jeremy-lin ... n-rockets/

Look at the huge difference in his 3pt % when he's allowed to create off the dribble instead of just spotting up for Harden. Jeremy is a much better 3pt shooter off the dribble than he is when he has to do it off catch-and-shoot.

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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#54 » by Sprewell4Three » Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:40 pm

I don't think it's Harden fault. I think it's Lin unwillingness to say " I'm going make a play and there's nobody that's going to stop me"

Right now he's afraid to get in the way of Harden.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#55 » by madmaxmedia » Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:09 pm

I don't think it's Harden's fault either. He's not the PG, it's not his job to watch out for Lin's numbers and participation. He's the best scorer on the team in any case.

It's more important that Harden be more efficient, his FG% is too low right now. But Jeremy has to figure out how to play with Harden more than nice versa.

LOL at Harden's numbers being significantly worse w/ Lin than without, I wouldn't have guessed that. Not the PPG (which doesn't necessarily indicate worse play), but the FG% and TO's!! WTF? (maybe not enough sample size...)

I nominate the new nickname for this undynamic duo- Oil and Water.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#56 » by madmaxmedia » Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:18 pm

The SI article nails it pretty well IMO.

It’s unfortunate given that both players are doing all the right things in hopes of more successfully playing off one another. But the respect of the defense can’t be earned solely with good intentions. The fundamental problem is this: Harden and Lin are both at their best when they’re afforded the opportunity to create off the dribble, but only one of those two (Harden) is in any way useful away from the ball.


Harden provides a different challenge in that he is an ideal complementary player by way of his do-it-all skill set, but he’s far too good to rely on a teammate who frankly isn’t in the same class in shot creation. It’s counterproductive to take the ball out of Harden’s hands simply because it better serves a lesser player in Lin, and thus one can already begin to see coach Kevin McHale’s dilemma: Two of his best offensive players struggle to bring out the best in one another, to the point that both seem to play better apart.


The coaches are starting to stagger their minutes (which is the real issue, not whether Lin starts or not), which is a very good thing.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#57 » by madbucky » Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:57 am

Sprewell4Three wrote:I don't think it's Harden fault. I think it's Lin unwillingness to say " I'm going make a play and there's nobody that's going to stop me". Right now he's afraid to get in the way of Harden.


I agree with you. But if I were to put percentage responsibilities on the situation, I'd say 30% on Lin, 60% on coaching staff, and 10% on Harden.

30% on Lin because could say "I'm going to demand the ball, screw the coach's game plan and Harden."

60% on coaching staff because as we saw from Spurs game, Lin still has the same ability as last year. It's the coach's job to maximize the players abilities and make them fit well together.

10% on Harden. Not that he's really done anything wrong. But Harden's playing attitude is more like Kobe Bryant than Lebron James. When the team is not playing well, Harden takes matters into his own hands whether he's having a good game or bad. Lebron is more likely to try to get his teammates involved and pick up their games. Harden could have said, "Lin, you need to take it to the hole more. Next time, I'm going to drive, and when they come to double me, cut to the basket and I'll hit you."
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#58 » by Daggy » Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:33 am

madbucky wrote:
Sprewell4Three wrote:I don't think it's Harden fault. I think it's Lin unwillingness to say " I'm going make a play and there's nobody that's going to stop me". Right now he's afraid to get in the way of Harden.


I agree with you. But if I were to put percentage responsibilities on the situation, I'd say 30% on Lin, 60% on coaching staff, and 10% on Harden.

30% on Lin because could say "I'm going to demand the ball, screw the coach's game plan and Harden."

60% on coaching staff because as we saw from Spurs game, Lin still has the same ability as last year. It's the coach's job to maximize the players abilities and make them fit well together.

10% on Harden. Not that he's really done anything wrong. But Harden's playing attitude is more like Kobe Bryant than Lebron James. When the team is not playing well, Harden takes matters into his own hands whether he's having a good game or bad. Lebron is more likely to try to get his teammates involved and pick up their games. Harden could have said, "Lin, you need to take it to the hole more. Next time, I'm going to drive, and when they come to double me, cut to the basket and I'll hit you."


I agree, I'd give Lin a bit more blame like 40% on him, but he's young and he wants to "do it the right way" so other people have to step in a bit. As for Harden, if he wants to be the top dog, then there's always a 10% blame to go to you when your partner in the backcourt is not dong well, it's just the way life goes. When Lin becomes more consistent and is regarded as an elite player, then there will always be a big share of he blame on him when the team doesn't do well, just the way it goes.
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Re: Jeremy Lin - An interesting case 

Post#59 » by 90sAllDecade » Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:23 am

The 713 backcourt aka Beardsanity accounted for 50 pts 11 ast and 14 rebs, complementing each others game in a blowout win.

Stats and analysts just need to give Lin time to develop, it's not the coaches or playing along side Harden.

One game, but still a great win and hopefully a good beginning.
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