Advanced Statistic Correlations
Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2010 1:49 pm
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7220
That's actually what I'd have expected.
Regarding these three:
Free throw rate (FTA/FGA)
- As the players usage goes up, exhaustion does as well. Tired legs provide lesser shots.
True shooting % (PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)))
- The above, plus as was mentioned in the article, higher usage% tend to have to take more difficult shots. This effect's difference from is about twice as much as FTR's from rebounding and assist rates.
Turnover Rate (TOV/Possessions used)
- Higher usage% equates to the ball in hand more often and more decisions, which naturally equates to more mistakes.
Nothing revolutionary in there, but an interesting article anyway.
True shooting % is easily the least consistent stat when a player changes roles, which seems to back up the concept of skill curves. When a player has a high TS% and a low possession %, it may be that his efficiency is inflated by taking relatively easy shots, attempts that comprise a smaller proportion of his shot selection when he is asked to increase his usage. Along the same lines, turnover rate was the 2nd-least consistent offensive rate stat when changing roles, suggesting that not only is shooting % dependent on the player's usage, but the ability to avoid turnovers is as well.
That's actually what I'd have expected.
Regarding these three:
Free throw rate (FTA/FGA)
- As the players usage goes up, exhaustion does as well. Tired legs provide lesser shots.
True shooting % (PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)))
- The above, plus as was mentioned in the article, higher usage% tend to have to take more difficult shots. This effect's difference from is about twice as much as FTR's from rebounding and assist rates.
Turnover Rate (TOV/Possessions used)
- Higher usage% equates to the ball in hand more often and more decisions, which naturally equates to more mistakes.
Nothing revolutionary in there, but an interesting article anyway.