Hey Bud, let's party!
Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 6:29 am
I love this catch phrase for the Rockets second year player. However, what I don't like thus far is his relatively lackluster play ever since the first game versus the Lakers. I'm seeing bricked 3-point attempts, missed jumpers (even an airball tonight), and questionable defense at times. Remember when Chase through down a thunderous dunk over someone? Good times! I'm just not seeing much of the promise that we saw from his rookie campaign.
There have been a few positive notes so far for Chase, however. He's definitely looking for his shot much more. He's getting open a ton, and isn't afraid to shoot whether it's behind the arc or a mid-range jumper. His teammates are finding him as he cuts through the lane and has done a good job finishing around the basket with either hand. Although we haven't seen many highlight reel dunks thus far, I like his assertiveness and willing to take shots. It's too bad those shots just haven't been dropping so far.
Chase Budinger
The good news is that it is a relatively small sample size. Chase has only played in 18 games thus far this season, and had that ankle injury to deal with a few weeks ago. If you actually superimpose Bud's 3-PT% last year onto this season, his overall numbers would be very similar to last season. What I'm suggesting is that his 3-PT shot just isn't dropping, which leads to lower FG%, and of course less points for his time on the court. Now whether his 37% from 3-PT land last season is his true percentage is anyone's guess. It's hard to say because even an entire season is not a large enough sample to determine a persons exact efficiency and percentages. A guy that is playing less than half a game is more prone to negative short-term variance over a small sample of games than someone seeing the court full-time.
People erroneously assume that if Player A shoots 40% from 3 in his third year, then he should shoot 40% in season 4 as well. I would tell you no way in hell, they'll probably be a variation of at least +/- 3% in those figures. Even the best players percentages fluctuate from year to year, and that's over an entire season on major minutes per game. In this scenario, we have a sample of fewer than 20 games from a guy who is playing part-time minutes. Big difference there for sure.
I have faith that the variance will even itself out and Chase's numbers will be where they should be by the end of the year. Although his faltered so far this season, there is still a long way to go and plenty of time for improvement for this sophomore. We just need to hope that he picks it up soon otherwise he might find his way out of the rotation with Brooks and Yao coming back from injury. Only time will tell.
There have been a few positive notes so far for Chase, however. He's definitely looking for his shot much more. He's getting open a ton, and isn't afraid to shoot whether it's behind the arc or a mid-range jumper. His teammates are finding him as he cuts through the lane and has done a good job finishing around the basket with either hand. Although we haven't seen many highlight reel dunks thus far, I like his assertiveness and willing to take shots. It's too bad those shots just haven't been dropping so far.
Chase Budinger
The good news is that it is a relatively small sample size. Chase has only played in 18 games thus far this season, and had that ankle injury to deal with a few weeks ago. If you actually superimpose Bud's 3-PT% last year onto this season, his overall numbers would be very similar to last season. What I'm suggesting is that his 3-PT shot just isn't dropping, which leads to lower FG%, and of course less points for his time on the court. Now whether his 37% from 3-PT land last season is his true percentage is anyone's guess. It's hard to say because even an entire season is not a large enough sample to determine a persons exact efficiency and percentages. A guy that is playing less than half a game is more prone to negative short-term variance over a small sample of games than someone seeing the court full-time.
People erroneously assume that if Player A shoots 40% from 3 in his third year, then he should shoot 40% in season 4 as well. I would tell you no way in hell, they'll probably be a variation of at least +/- 3% in those figures. Even the best players percentages fluctuate from year to year, and that's over an entire season on major minutes per game. In this scenario, we have a sample of fewer than 20 games from a guy who is playing part-time minutes. Big difference there for sure.
I have faith that the variance will even itself out and Chase's numbers will be where they should be by the end of the year. Although his faltered so far this season, there is still a long way to go and plenty of time for improvement for this sophomore. We just need to hope that he picks it up soon otherwise he might find his way out of the rotation with Brooks and Yao coming back from injury. Only time will tell.