Jun 25, 2011: Approaching Free Agency ... Er ... Lockout
Well... the draft is over and the only player who ended up getting traded was Brad Miller. Thank god for David Kahn.
We dealt for Jonny Flynn, picked up three rookies and now have 16 players under contract. 14, not counting Blakely and Cousin.
I don't think we necessarily got what we wanted (trading up/trading quantity for quality, shorten the rotation & ending up with Valanciunas or Biyombo), but it seems as if the Rockets still were pretty happy with the players they ended up getting.
From what I can tell Marcus Morris was either #8 or #9 on our draft board, so getting him at #14 is a pretty good get.
No idea how high Motiejunas was on the draft board, but Morey described him as a lottery-type talent, saying he was a low risk, high reward pick at #20. Parsons was one of the 22 guys the Rockets identified as first round quality players. Great value at #38.
If you're still a little confused about the details of the deal we made, we traded the #23 pick, the MEM '13 1st (heavily protected), Brad Miller & $1.5mil cash for the #20 pick (Motiejunas), the MIN '12 2nd rounder (56-60 protected) & Jonny Flynn.
So... where do we go from here?
I think it's safe to say we'll make a lot of phones calls the next couple of days.
I'd bet good money that, if we haven't already, we'll making a least one phone call to Toronto and Charlotte, once again inquiring about Valancunias and Biyombo. The odds of getting even into a conversation however unfortunately appear to be pretty low.
I assume we'll call some teams inquiring about next year's or future first rounders, offering some of our players. The Celtics (LAC's 2012 1st), Bulls (CHA's 2012 st), Nets (our own 2012 1st) and Jazz (GS' 2012 1st) come to mind.
The Lakers apparently had Marcus Morris in the top-5 on their draft board, so they might give us a call, although I'm not sure what they'd have to offer.
I'm no fan of Josh Smith, but we might have a conversation or two with the Hawks.
We also might give the the Kings a call, asking if they've had enough of DeMarcus Cousins yet and if they really think that there are gonna be enough shots for him, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton and Jimmer to go around. (That draft day deal the Kings made has to one of the worst trades in recent history).
We might call the Cavs, inquiring about Varejao's availability.
We might even make the obligatory call, approaching the Hornets and Magic about Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.
Don't get your hopes up.
Then of course there's also that rumor out there that we tried to trade for Andris Biedrins at draft night and will continue to make calls about him.
I don't really know what to make of it to be quite honest.
Morey has shown that he's willing to take a chance on guys that have shown promise or had promise coming into the league, but taking on a guy like Biedrins, given the money he's owed over the next three years, doesn't fit really Morey's M.O.
Just to make the salaries work we'd have to give them Thabeet and Jordan Hill.
Granted, that's not much of a loss, but if you were to go to the trade board and propose a Thabeet & Hill for Biedrins deal, 8/10 people would tell you it's bad value for Houston.
And it's only 8/10, because, well... for one there's "old rem" and then there'll always be that one guy who'll look at the Rockets roster and think "Wow. Houston has this 6-6 scrub name Chuck Hayes playing center. They need a seven foot center!!! Great deal for them!".
So, unless the Rockets for whatever reason are really sold on Biedrins turning the curve or at least believe that there's a good chance he will (perhaps McHale has talked Morey into it), I'm inclined to believe that there's something else to the deal.
Given Larry Riley's (Warriors GM) comments from April, I think it's fair to say that they'd be more than open to getting rid of Biedrins.
For the Rockets, it seems that Morey is willing to take a back a bad contract, in order to get a valuable asset (i.e. a high draft pick). Mr. Alexander might have given him the green light to do so and it seems almost certain that we'll have an amnesty clause in the new CBA, so a contract like Biedrins wouldn't cripple us or hold us back from signing/trading for a marquee free agent, should we need the cap space/room to do so.
Either way it's a good sign, because it means that Alexander is willing to spend. This isn't necessarily news, but it's always good to hear.
Having established that we're willing to take on (long-term) salary we might look to take on other bad contracts/overpaid players, in order to get a valuable asset (again, preferably high draft picks, since we most likely would be able to create a roster spot or two that way).
Expect us to at the very least to call the 22 teams that are said to be losing money.
Most teams are expected to wait until the new CBA to make a trade involving salaries, but that won't hold the Rockets back from making phone calls. If luck turns our way for once we might find a team that's desperate and cheap enough.
Finally, let me update my 'most likely to be moved rankings' (that you may or may not agree with):
Most likely: Jordan Hill (52%, [previously 58%]), Chase Budinger (38%) [17%]
I still look at Hill as Morey's stepchild. It would be wrong to call him a throw-in in the NY trade, however he was not a guy we were really targeting during the 09 draft (#13 on our draft board I believe) and we only traded for him because he was the best piece we could ask for at the time. I think he could be had for a first rounder in the 13-20 range, though I think it's far more likely that he'll get moved in a package.
I've lowered the odds of him getting traded, mainly because he's one of the few guys who's capable of playing at the 5 and Chuck may not be re-signed (
).There may also be some appeal to Morey that McHale may be able to help raise Hill's trade value or maybe even magically turn him into this beast player some thought he might become coming into the league.
Budinger is interesting. I'll still quote Mr. E, however I'll add a couple of things this time.
For better or worse he is currently our starting small forward, and we do not have a lot of depth at that position. Considering his very cheap contract it would be next to impossible to move him and get back something of comparable value (again, he's starting for us). If Budinger is moved he'd have to be part of another larger deal. His on-court value far outstrips his monetary value, which makes him very difficult to trade.
While all of the above is true, I'm inclined to believe that Budinger tenure in Houston is soon to be over. Drafting Morris and Parsons, having T-Will on the roster. There's only so many guys you can play.
Now, it's not too long ago that Bud was passed on by all other 29 teams at least once, so one has to question how much value he has around the league, however it only takes on team to have changed their mind. Budinger's cheap contract makes him very attractive, especially to contending and well ... cheap teams.
We're not really in a position where we can be too concerned about on court value vs. monetary value, so dealing Budinger, who unlike Parsons or T-Will, actually has at least some value, for either a draft pick or in bigger trade package seems be relatively likely.
Decent chance: Goran Dragic (33%) [26%], Courtney Lee (31%) [21%], Jonny Flynn (24%) [NR]
I'd put Dragic's odds of getting traded a bit higher than Lee's, simply because Morey has always liked Lee quite a bit. Both will be RFA's after next season and I don't see Morey wanting to be in another Brooks situation. We'll look to shorten the rotation and if the right deal came along I'd think they'd get moved.
Neither guy will come cheap though and teams better like Lee a lot in order for us to trade him. We we're asking for Omer Asik and the Bobcats 2012 first rounder in return for Lee at the trade deadline. Morey is said to be a hardass, but he may have to lower his asking price by a little bit.
I've increase the odds of Dragic and Lee getting traded simply because we added three players. Trading Lee would open up minutes both at the 2 and 3.
As for Jonny Flynn, he doesn't appear to have much value as of right now, which is why I think that he's less likely to get traded than Dragic.
I like Flynn and think he's at the very least a backup PG in this league, however I also believe that backup PG's are rather easy to find. Make no mistake though. Flynn isn't Thabeet. He can play.
Unlike Dragic, Flynn will become an unrestricted free agent after next season, if (IMO we will) we decide not to pick up his option for '12-13, which to me makes it a bit more likely that he'll get traded. Today's news of his hip perhaps being a long-term concern however sure won't help Flynn's stock around the league, although some teams might not see it as such.
Either way we'll almost have to trade at least one of Flynn and Dragic. Those guys are too good to just sit on the bench.
For the right price: Luis Scola (19%) [16%]
I think it's fair to say that Scola doesn't really fit the core of this team.
It's a tricky situation however, because there doesn't appear to be a market for him and judging from the T&T board most people vastly underrated him. Now I don't think that necessarily reflects his trade value around the league, however it may be smart to at least pair him for half a season with a legit big, just to show much effective Scola can be.
He sure has his flaws (mainly perimeter and help defense), but he's a legit 20/9 player, that always plays hard, smart and unselfish. He doesn't need plays for him called to be effective. People want to knock him for his defense, yet only a handful of the top PF's are actually good defender. Amare, Dirk, Bosh, Z-Bo, Boozer, David Lee, David West, etc... none of those guys is known for his defense and most of them are paid significantly more than Scola.
I think we'd consider trading him for a high pick or a good young prospect (P.George/Gallinari mold), but again I don't see a market out there as of right now.
I think we value his veteran presence, perhaps even a bit more now, with Motiejunas on board, however we've added two PF's through the draft, so I raised the odds of Scola getting a traded by a little bit.
Only as part of a bigger trade: Hasheem Thabeet (18%) [8%], Terrence Williams (12%) [7%]
Personally, I don't really care about Thabeet. I think he's awful. The Rockets however seem to be invested to at least give him a shot. They'll try to spend as much time with him in the summer. He'll work with CD, maybe even Dream and McHale. Morey is good friends with Rays manager Andrew Friedman and they're constantly exchanging ideas. One of the things they're said to be looking into is the psychological side. I don't have any details unfortunately, but from what I understand they'll leave no stone unturned.
Thabeet has close to no trade value, so it's not like we're missing out to sell high on the guy. If the right deal comes along though and the other team for whatever reason absolutely insists on receiving Thabeet, the Rockets won't hesitate to ship him out. They're well aware that Thabeet is a long-shot.
Terrence Williams is another guy that we won't trade unless a deal we can't turn down comes along, where somebody insists on Williams being part of the trade package. He didn't get to play much under Adelman and it would be silly to trade him now that his value is down, considering we gave our next year's first rounders up for him. He's obviously talented and he'll get a fair shot under McHale. Whether he'll take advantage of that opportunity is up to him.
Again I've raised the odds of those guys getting traded for the very lone reason that we added three players. Thabeet's bigger contract almost makes him a lock to be part of a bigger trade package to match the salaries.
Unlikely: Kevin Martin (9%) [9%]
When we traded for Martin I had my reservations about the guy and I sure wasn't hesitant to criticize him in the past. Truth be told though, he's a very good player, arguably a top-5 player at his position.
As effective as he was last year, I think it's fair to say that he'd be even more effective playing next to a superstar.
Whenever Morey talks about Rockets players with upside, he brings up Martin, stating that he has the tools to become a good defender.
Now I don't see him ever being a "good" defender, but there's no reason why can't be above average (see Ray Allen). He's certainly shown flashes, the commitment just isn't there (yet).
Bottom line, Morey thinks highly of Martin. He even consulted Martin as to what type of coach he'd like to play for.
I could see Martin being moved for a high pick in next year's draft, although that obviously in part depends on highly the Rockets think of next year's draft, which I can only speculate on.
Only for a superstar: Kyle Lowry (5%) [4%]
Lowry is a top-5 defensive PG. Once Brooks was traded he put up All-Star type of numbers (19PPG 4.7RPG 7.6APG 2.3TO 47%FG 41%3s 87%FT [65% W/L]). He's just turned 25 a few months ago. He's on a great contract. He's a very good fit next to Kevin Martin.
It'll obviously take more than just Lowry, but it makes no sense to trade him for anything less than a superstar/superstar asset (i.e. top-3 draft pick in a good draft).
Avoid at all cost: Pattrick Patterson (4%) [3%]
Patterson was #6 on our draft board last year. He's cheap. He's got upside. He's got pretty much everything you want in your power forward. Due to limit playing time however, as of right now he's much more valuable to us than to any other team.
Of course he's not untouchable, but I honestly believe we'll try to avoid trading him at all cost, even after adding another two PF's to the team.
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Jun 4, 2011: Approaching the NBA Draft
With the NBA draft only a little more than two weeks away let's talk about what has changed since the trade deadline.
We're still looking for a star and a center. Still in that order. That's priority number one, two and three.
We'll once again try to move up in the draft. Morey is on record saying so.
Even more so than at the trade deadline we'll try to trade multiple pieces for one. We'll look to shorten our rotation to 9 or 10. (Technically it's already at 10, but that's only because there aren't enough minutes to go around for an eleven or twelve men rotation).
We already have eleven players under contract (not counting Cousin and Blakely) and we'll most likely look to re-sign both Yao and Hayes. And barring a trade, we have three draft picks in this year's draft. That's 16 players already.
So, not counting salary fillers, any trade that has more players incoming than outgoing is a non-starter.
We're buyers, not sellers. We need to be the team that trades multiple pieces for one, not the other way around.
I'd expect us to still be interested in the players we've previously shown interest in (Chris Paul, Gortat, Nene, Danny Granger, Anderson Varejao, DeMarcus Cousins, etc...), though the odds of us ending up trading for any of these guys are probably rather low. Varejao seems like the most realistic option.
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Apr 27, 2011: Looking ahead: Rockets Offseason 2011
Now that the season is over let's look ahead and dissect the Rockets roster, look at the Rockets future assets, as well as potential future moves.
Looking at the Rockets roster and potential roster moves:
When you look at our roster the first thing that jumps out is that we only have three guys over thirty (Brad Miller, Scola & Yao). Two if you exclude Yao, who might very well be done. Kevin Martin, at 28, is quite a bit older than the rest of the roster also, so one might believe that Scola and Martin are the two players the most likely to be moved.
Not only because they are older than the rest of the roster, but because they hold the most value and we have starter quality players stitting behind them, that make only a fragment of what Martin and Scola are getting paid.
Having said that, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul in all likelihood won't come here to play with Patterson, Budinger and Lee and I don't see us going through a 'full' rebuild either. So it's probably moving either Scola OR Martin, not both.
Also, it would seem that Martin, as good as he is, would be even better playing alongside a superstar, so the Rockets may very well want to keep Martin around as a building block.
Brad Miller may be moved if there's a suitor for him out there, otherwise I'd expect the team to keep him around for a year and then waive the last year of his contract, which is only $848,000 guaranteed.
Courtney Lee is going to be a restricted free agent after next season. I know Morey doesn't do extensions, but it would seem like a smart move to extend Lee this off-season.
Not only would an extension slightly increase Lee's trade value, but you wouldn't run the risk of losing him in the 2012 free agency. It also would open up the opportunity to trade Martin, without afterwards running the risk having to re-sign Lee, while paying him starter type money. Whether or not you plan on keeping both Martin and Lee around for the long run really doesn't matter. On top of all that you'd eliminate Lee's 2012 caphold, which would eat $6,675,279 into the Rockets cap space.
If Yao isn't going to retire, I'd expect Morey to re-sign him for the cheap.
Morey will probably also try to re-sign Hayes to a long term deal in the off-season, but if some team is going to overpay him, we might have to let him walk
.After Dragic struggled mightily for the majority of the season, he ended the season playing some very good basketball, which leads me to believe that Morey won't risk losing him in (restricted) free agency and therefore pick up his $2,108,000 option.
Another decision that will have to be made is whether or not to pick up the '12/'13 team option for Thabeet. Looking at the free agents in 2012, I'd be absolutely shocked if Morey weren't to decline the option, considering what Thabeet has, or rather hasn't shown.
Declining Thabeet's option would mean that he'd become an unrestricted free agent after next season (2012). Morey has until this year's October 31 to decide whether or not to pick the option up.
Looking at the Rockets draft picks:
The Rockets have quite a few of future draft picks, but it's pretty complicated which ones we can trade, and which ones we can't trade.
As of right now the Rockets are allowed to trade one of their 2011 1st rounders, as well as the Clippers 2011 2nd rounder.
In order for the Rockets to trade both of their 2011 first rounders, they'd have to receive a 2011 first rounder or unprotected 2012 first rounder in return.
The Rockets could also trade their first 2014 rounder, however it would have to be specified in any trade agreement that that pick is the first 'allowable' draft pick, which at the very earliest would be 2014, due to the protection on the first rounder the Rockets traded to NJ.
Because the 2012 first rounder was traded to NJ, the Rockets, at the moment, cannot trade the NY 2012 first rounder, since the pick is top-1 protected and the Rockets therefore aren't guaranteed a draft pick in '12. For the same reason we can't our 2013 draft pick. Once the 2011 draft has taken place, the Rockets would be able to trade the 2012 NY first rounder.
There's a way to work around all those restrictions, but long story short, trading the 2012 first rounder to NJ hurt the Rockets from involving future draft picks in trades, so it would be neat if the Rockets somehow were able to re-acquire that pick, though it probably wouldn't be the end of the world if they didn't.
Looking at the 2011 draft:
The Rockets have two first round picks and one second round pick. Our own first rounder, #14 (unless we get lucky with the ping pong balls), the Magic's first rounder, #23 and the Clippers' second rounder, #38.
Morey has stated in the past that he's always looking to draft the best player available, because he doesn't want to leave talent on the table and believes the draft decision is evaluated over three or four years. He's also on record however, that when you have players in a certain draft tiers and the talent difference is minor, you then might look to balance it out with what your team needs or lacks.
With how weak this draft has gotten, since most of the big names have pulled out, I wouldn't be surprised if we went with a player that doesn't fit a need.
Should there however be a center we like mixed in a certain draft tier that we're looking at, I'd think there's a good chance of us taking that center.
Looking at DraftExpress' current mock draft they have four centers in the first round, all of them going in the top-10.
Motiejunas is a more of a PF, which is the last thing we need (though again, that probably wouldn't hold the Rockets back from drafting him).
That leaves Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo and Enes Kanter, who as of right now are projected to go #3 and #6 and #7.
Chad Ford has Kanter going no lower than #4, Valanciunas going no lower than #5 and Biyombo going no lower than #8.
Unless the Rocket luck out in the lottery, they'd most likely have to trade up to get any of those guys.
I don't remember a draft however where Morey didn't look to either move up or down, so I don't expect this year to be any different and judging from Morey's comments in early Febuary, I'd expect him to first and foremost explore opportunities to shorten the rotation, which would mean trading up or out of the draft.
(Unfortunately I can't find the interview. I think it was on SR610. He was basically talking about how it's ideal to have a 9 or 10 men rotation like the Spurs, where everybody knows his role, instead of having a stacked roster that's three deep at every position. He sounded a bit unhappy to me, more or less admitting he's not happy with how the roster is constructed.)
After the trade deadline Morey spend three weeks in Europe scouting and recently said that "this year is going to be (a) strong (draft for international players), so don't be surprised if the Rockets draft a few Euros.
There are also some rumors floating around that Morey is high on Jimmer Fredette.
Looking at the 2011 free agency:
It's a bit tricky looking at possible free agents, not knowing what the new CBA will look like and therefore not knowing how much cap space the Rocket will have to use, though there's not all that much to get excited about anyway.
Looking at centers 28 or young, there are only a handful of them out there: Chandler (28-UFA), Nene (28-ETO), Marc Gasol (26-RFA), DeAndre Jordan (22-RFA), Greg Oden (23-RFA) and Kyrylo Fesenko (24-UFA).
Not only are most of those guys going to be expensive, but you most definitely will have to overpay to have a chance at any of the restricted free agents.
I don't see any way possible that the Mavs, Nuggets and Grizzlies are not going to retain Chandler, Nene and Gasol.
Oden might be an option, though I don't see Morey taking that risk, knowing Oden's injury history and having dealt with Yao's injuries for the past few years.
Depending on the draft, whether or not the Rockets re-sign Yao and Thabeet's development (or lack thereof) Fesenko could be possibility, especially if Brad Miller were to get traded. He's not more than a good backup though.
That leaves DeAndre Jordan as the lone target.
In February I didn't see him as much of a possibility, but after doing some digging I believe there's a chance that the Rockets could grab him.
We might not have enough money, depending on new CBA and its salary cap, but if we do and the Clippers for whatever reason won't (be able to) move Chris Kaman, I can't see them paying two centers over $10mil. It's Donald Sterling, we're talking about here.
Now you be thinking "TEN MILLION DOLLARS FOR DEANDRE JORDAN??????", but yeah, that's probably in the neighborhood of what it's going to take.
To be honest, I'm not sold on Jordan. At all. But I wasn't sold on Trevor Ariza back then and it turned out just fine. $10mil will be around market value though and if possible, I could see the Rockets signing Jordan to an offer sheet in the $10mil/year range and hope the Clippers don't match.
I believe that if you can get/afford somebody that's valued around the league, who has a chance to help you team both short and long term for market value, then you absolutely go after him.
We really have no other center that's deserving of minutes, so we could easily play Jordan 30 minutes a game. If he doesn't produce, develop, or fit in like the Rocket would hope him to, they still could ship him off to another team, desperate for a center.
More or less like they did with Ariza.
There are so few, young centers with upside, that I just can't see a scenario where you wouldn't get at least decent value in return.
I also wouldn't underestimate the chances of the Magic being 'forced' to trade Howard, at which point a DeAndre Jordan would come in very handy.
Non centers that I could see the Rockets having interest in are Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (24-RFA) and Earl Clark (23-UFA), both terrific defenders, capable of playing both SF and PF. Especially Clark is intriguing to me.
Looking at our already overfilled roster and the 2012 free agents though, I'd say there's a good chance the Rockets aren't going to spend any money on free agents this summer, unless they can get a potentially game-changing player like a DeAndre Jordan, to have enough flexibility down the road for a big name (Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Deron Williams) in 2012.
Thanks for reading.
