State of the Roster

[BaYBaller]

I have the feeling that the share of backup PG minutes b/w Douglas and Beverley isn't going to be set in stone. A common theme of how defenses are adjusting to our offense is blitzing Harden, either before or right after he catches the ball. Given how we've been turning to Harden either as a first touch or late in the clock after nothing materializes trying to run a set play it has been quite effective at stymying our offense.

To put it simply, bad things happen when it's late in the clock and Douglas has to create something out of nothing. Beverley is the logically choice vs this type of aggressive defense. On the flip side, Douglas is a much better 3pt shooter than Beverley is (we've seen very little so far, but historically Beverley was poor from 3pt land), so vs a defense that lays back Douglas would seem to be the superior option.

Another possibility is giving all of the back-up PG minutes to Beverley and put Douglas at the back-up SG role. This has the added benefit of having the option to give Harden and Lin more rest. Right now I think one of the largest factors in why our fast break offense has been poor during this losing streak is because of fatigue due to the minutes that our starters (outside of the PF spot) are logging. If Beverley continues to play well a reduction in Harden/Lin/Parson/Asik's minutes might prove to be beneficial in the long-run as suddenly our bench does not appear as shaky as it once did with the solid play we are receiving from Smith, Douglas, Delfino and hopefully Beverley.

edit: And I am loving the Lin/Harden PnR. It's turning into one of our go-to plays and is a perfect counter to the aggressive ball denial tactics teams are using against Harden. I think Beverley can excel in this situation in ways that Douglas cannot.

[inquisitive]

what do you guys think about a somewhat minor trade getting larry sanders...he is a center, but i think he can play PF...obviously i prefer waiting till offseason, but just a thought.

[Mr. E]

what do you guys think about a somewhat minor trade getting larry sanders...he is a center, but i think he can play PF...obviously i prefer waiting till offseason, but just a thought.

What do you think that it would take to get him? I'd be interested.

[Zubby]

Would love Sanders but no way we get him bad trade partners with the Bucks.


The more I think about it, Josh Smith maybe our only option... No one else is on the market Smith > Millisap at least Smith is a top help defender.
We could use his above & below the rim shoot blocking. Last I saw he was top 3 in the league in drawing charges .
Strong rebounder, and fast. And he is on the trading block. There is no one else.


It's either Smith or stand pat. But iirc Morey via twitter said the Rockets will be more "stable" this year than previous years near the trade deadline.

IMO meaning we won't be active, am I reading that right?

[msg4k90]

both lin and bledsoe aren't great spot up shooters. lin won't become one this season, maybe next year or never. if bledsoe came to the rockets, he would struggle filling "lin's" spot up role.

as everyone knows pau gasol is having one of his worst nba seasons of his career. d'antoni doesn't know how to use him. when gasol and dwight play together there are spacing issues. until something major happens, lin will continue to play poor like gasol.

jeremy has a usage rate of 19.6%, that's lower than last season. he's a scoring PG like westbrook. I still can't believe that toney douglas has a usage rate of 20.5% which is higher than the rocket's starting PG.

lets look at usage rate from some players last season 2011-2012:

19.1 - Eric Bledsoe
21.8 - Jrue Holiday
22.1 - Pau Gasol
21.6 - James Harden
19.6 - Jeremy Lin

2012-2013 season

+24 ---- Eric Bledsoe -------- he will become a starting PG next season and everyone knows who he is.
+26.7 - Jrue Holiday -------- breakout season, potential all star. top 10 PG.
-18.8 - Pau Gasol ---------- his rookie year is better. "if traded, he would do better" - REALGM
+29.3 - James Harden ------ top 5 SG, all star, breaks a franchise record. the rise of Beardsanity.
-19.6 - Jeremy Lin ----------- average PG.

now, marcus morris should start for the time being as they score more when he's on the floor. he attempts more 3's than patterson. that helps harden and lin.

I feel like the rockets need a good defensive player to help omer asik and lin. someone who can limit or frustrate stars from opposing teams. I don't know about the rest of you guys, but it disgusts me when a player from another team goes off for like 30+ points or has a "great game".

[BaYBaller]

Lin has a lower usage rate because he was overused last season in NY. He average nearly 40 mins a game or something ridiculous like that. Also IIRC usage rate does not factor in assists in any way, it simply attempts to measure the proportion of plays that player finishes (e.g. FG, FT, TO).

And there is a lot more to our offensive schemes/sets than Lin "spotting up" that I think are flying right over your head. Lin has had plenty of opportunity to do things with the ball within the system we run. To me as an observer he seems intently focused on running the offense rather than looking for his shot. Lin is basically learning how to be a NBA PG on the fly as he was a SG in college.

[Zubby]

No such thing as a scoring pg... thats just an undersized sg

[inquisitive]

what do you guys think about a somewhat minor trade getting larry sanders...he is a center, but i think he can play PF...obviously i prefer waiting till offseason, but just a thought.

What do you think that it would take to get him? I'd be interested.

maybe give them 3 of our young guys? let them pick from tjones, beverly, pat, or morris? is that good enough? is he on a rookie contract still? he could be really good 2-3 yrs down the road

[TMACFORMVP]

I highly doubt we could get Sanders. He's doing like 8/8.6 and leading the league in blocks in 24 MPG. That's like 12/12 with 4+ BPG per36 at only 24 years old. He's 2nd in the league in DRTG, and top 10 in DRB% for a Bucks team that's ranked 7th in DRTG.

[zapatasblood]

The more I think about it, Josh Smith maybe our only option

[madbucky]

Lin has a lower usage rate because he was overused last season in NY. He average nearly 40 mins a game or something ridiculous like that. Also IIRC usage rate does not factor in assists in any way, it simply attempts to measure the proportion of plays that player finishes (e.g. FG, FT, TO).

Usage rate has nothing to do with how many minutes you play per game. Usage rate tells you how involved a player is on offense while he is on the court. And it does include assists.

You can easily have a player who gets 10 min/game have a higher usage rate than a player who gets 40 min/game. For example, Will Bynum, who plays 17 min/game, has a higher usage rate than Aldridge who plays 38 min/game.

Usage Rate - the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... /usageRate

[madbucky]

No such thing as a scoring pg... thats just an undersized sg

I'd agree in most cases. But what about Derrick Rose?

[Nebula1]

Bucks aren't giving up Larry Sanders. I can promise you that. He's also a center.

But this losing streak continues to show the need for another primary scorer and ideally in the post or at small forward.

[90sAllDecade]

I posted this in another thread, but I think it bears repeating:

Rockets PF averages in 5 game win streak:

Patterson:
13 pts 5.6 reb FG% 71, 3PT% 50, FT% 85

Morris:
8 pts 4.2 reb FG% 41, 3PT% 31, FT% 100

The past 5 games:

Patterson:
5 pts 2.6 reb FG% 31, 3PT% 33, FT% 0

Morris:
5.6 pts 3.4 reb FG% 31, 3PT% 26, FT% 37

Harden's numbers in losing streak:

22.6 pts 5 reb 5 ast FG% 37, 3PT% 24, FT% 76

Win streak:
29.6 pts 2.8 reb 6.2 ast FG% 48.9, 3PT% 32, FT% 88.46

If teams double and trap Harden, forcing other players to beat them and our supporting cast doesn't make open shots & we get no quality production from the 4 position we lose.

If they hit shots, our 4's do well, allowing Harden to open up his game (and if he succeeds, especially 3pt shots) we go on win streaks.

We also usually got edged out in defense, rebounds (we used to be top 5 dominant rebounding team) and also had more turnovers in 4 of the losses.

A 2 way PF (not neccessarily an all star) that can defend, rebound and hit open shots off Harden double teams would do wonders.

[Zubby]

No such thing as a scoring pg... thats just an undersized sg

I'd agree in most cases. But what about Derrick Rose?

Derrick Rose is a sg, almost identical to Westbrook except Rose is calmer less volatile...
If you shoot the ball that much you're definitely a SG.

If there ever was this "scoring pg" then it was maybe KJ/Thomas.

The more I think about it, Josh Smith maybe our only option

Yea I was a lil... a lot disgusted with myself too.

[BaYBaller]

Lin has a lower usage rate because he was overused last season in NY. He average nearly 40 mins a game or something ridiculous like that. Also IIRC usage rate does not factor in assists in any way, it simply attempts to measure the proportion of plays that player finishes (e.g. FG, FT, TO).

Usage rate has nothing to do with how many minutes you play per game. Usage rate tells you how involved a player is on offense while he is on the court. And it does include assists.

You can easily have a player who gets 10 min/game have a higher usage rate than a player who gets 40 min/game. For example, Will Bynum, who plays 17 min/game, has a higher usage rate than Aldridge who plays 38 min/game.

Usage Rate - the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... /usageRate

Yes I know, but the heavy minutes along with the high usage rate last year shows that during the whole Linsanity streak that the entire NYK team relied very heavily on Lin's offense because they were injury riddled. There is not a single team in the entire league right now that I think would turn the keys to the offense to Lin and give him the green light to shoot whatever the hell he wants, although I do think he could fit into a reserve scoring role ala JJ Barea for certain teams.

Anyway my point is that Lin is still fairly involved in the offense, and his involvement in that offense isn't really captured in the usage rate. Like I said, the usage rate is simply a measure of that player finishing the play when he is on the floor, not his involvement in it. I think right now the biggest thing for Lin right now is learning how to balance running the offensive set and looking for his shot. He was pretty efficient on his mid-range 2's last year, a shot he has ample opportunity to take advantage of due to his involvement in a lot of the team's high PnRs. Instead he seems to pick up his dribble a lot when there is no driving lane and just pass it off.

And as for Josh Smith I think fit-wise he would be great. Would be great in transition, great weak-side defense/blocker, great finisher, and somebody who can actually finish lobs. He would make side PnRs so much more lethal due to his ability to finish lobs. I think Asik was a great acquisition and he has exceeded my expectations I had for him on offense, but there are so many turnovers and lost scoring opportunities due to his fumbling of passes, traveling calls due to bad footwork, his bad FT%, inability to finish gimmes at the rim, etc.

In my mind the question about Josh Smith has always been about at what cost we could get him. He's not a max contract player IMO so if a team is dumb enough to give him a long-term max contract then I have no issues of trying to find value elsewhere.

[inquisitive]

White woulda really helped in a few of our games during this losting streak with his size...too bad we took a big risk in drafting him.

[Guy986]

White woulda really helped in a few of our games during this losting streak with his size...too bad we took a big risk in drafting him.

White is a 6'8 PF with no range. He wouldn't help in any way shape or form this season.


Terrence Jones would be a big help with his size, athleticism and finishing touch around the rim. He really should be playing by now. **** Morris.

[Zubby]

Yea Jones was outplaying everyone earlier, and looking like a top rookie. Too bad they wont play him.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tgT8GzAS6g[/youtube]

lil bit of Dmo, Machado, Smith
Patterson/Parsons MC's


lmao White is there too, i'm sure they didn't haze him tho... because you that would be insensitive

#anxietytroopers

[TMU]

Yea Jones was outplaying everyone earlier, and looking like a top rookie. Too bad they wont play him.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tgT8GzAS6g[/youtube]

lil bit of Dmo, Machado, Smith
Patterson/Parsons MC's


lmao White is there too, i'm sure they didn't haze him tho... because you that would be insensitive

#anxietytroopers

This is an insensitive post.