Jeremy Lin - An interesting case
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:45 pm
Hope this thread can be the official Lin thread of this forum.
I'm a Lin fan because of the kind of person he is and the flashes of potential he has shown, but I can see quite a few flaws in the guy's game.
I'm writing this on the date after his semi break out game vs. Spurs in a Houston uniform, let's see whether my unprofessional psycho analysis of the guy can stand up to the test of time.
Jeremy Lin is a very unique player. I think it's really important to keep that in mind. We can compare him with other NBA players, but his background, his path to the NBA, his personality, his skill sets dictate he's going to be an "one of a kind player" for quite a while, thus making him a pretty frustrating player to follow as well, because he's not "one of a kind special talent", he's just ... different from everyone else.
There's no doubt in my mind that his ceiling is high barring injuries (I won't mention injury again because frankly that's out of anyone's control). On any given night he can score 25 and dish out 5+ with 5 rebounds, that puts you into the elite guard category no matter how you look at it. However, on any night he can do that only if he's the Alpha on the floor.
This is not to say he's selfish, FAR FROM IT, this guy is one of the most selfless team player in the league and he really, really, really wants to be seen in that way. And that, my friends, is the single biggest snag in his personality that's going to give endless frustration to his followers.
We all know how he has developed that kind of personality, traditional Asian family, really devote Christian value system (during one of the interviews he said his preacher gave him a scolding after he became Linsanity because the old guy was worried that he'd become too full of himself... and Lin took it and thought it was a good thing), and most importantly, throughout his life everyone has told him he's not an elite talent.
Let's not underestimate this last point. Even though he was the top player on his team in his college days, but since he was in Harvard everyone simply didn't take his record that seriously. Later on the long discouraging road through the NBA D league & benches have reinforced that notion. I think deep down Lin himself has bought into that garbage. He knows he can play, but he's constantly doubting himself on how aggressively he should play. He's afraid of acting like an elite player because he thinks he's never going to be good enough on that level and people will really crap on him for thinking too highly of himself.
He simply doesn't want to be MJ, I think he wants to be Pippen or whichever important supporting guy on a good team. He wants people to say he's a selfless player more than he wants people to regard him as an elite scorer.
But that's unfortunately not who he is.
By fortune or misfortune depending on your perspective, he's developed a skill set through high school & college to be the Alpha on the team. We've all seen it, when all hopes were lost and everyone else was just a dis-spirited scrub like the Knicks team from last year, Lin could literally carry the team by himself. If they weren't playing the amazing Spurs last night, anyone have doubts Lin would win that game for the Rockets? Lin's skill set dictates he's a hybrid scoring guard. He truly shines when he knows he is the top option and his job is to make sure the team scores enough points, be it through scoring or passing, but he needs to be the one making those decisions, not someone else.
Again this is not to say he's selfish, he simply has grown used to be that option in his younger days, he can and will find ways to put the ball in the basket when he doesn't have to think, when he can just play and let nature take over.
Lin is like the hulk in a way, his natural instinct is really high as a ball player, but the demands and expectations of the world around him keeps his inner beast caged.
So now we have a problem. His strength doesn't fit his personality and his strength really gives a coach headaches. You can ask him to "play within the system", and we all know he wants to. You can ask him to be a complimentary player to the Alpha on this team which is Harden and you know Lin will make every effort to be that complimentary player, but by making such an unnatural effort Lin totally gets lost. When he brings the ball down the court instead of studying the defense he's looking for Harden to pass off the ball, when he cuts into the lane instead of thinking about how to score he's thinking about how to involve as many guys as possible, he has all those annoying 1-2 seconds hesitations because he's trying to think in the middle of the action and it totally messes his rhythm up.
He's constantly fighting against his nature and everyone knows that's a fight you don't want to have.
Now you can say, well, let him be the Alpha or let him handle the ball more. But it's just not that simple. Let's face it, we live in a competitive real world. Even though I think he can be really good, right now he's not as good a player as Harden and Harden finally getting out of the bench role from OKC is trying to prove himself. To co-exist with Harden is not a matter of choice, but a matter of necessity. To let Lin go to the bench is a also a really silly suggestion because frankly you are trying to develop both Harden & Lin, this is not Ginobli already being completely set as a player then got asked to take on a different role in a championship team by a championship coach due to age & injury concerns. To move Lin to the bench essentially is to give up on trying to build this team together before it got started.
Is it completely hopeless then for Lin?
Speaking for me... I don't think so. The number one thing us fans lack but really will gain a bit with age is patience. Who before the season really thought this team was going to be a championship team this year??? Who before the season really thought Harden was going to be THIS EXCEPTIONAL a scorer? Who among us didn't at least have some doubts of whether Lin could even be an average player? How much beef Morey caught for dealing for these three young core players? The fact is this year, no matter what flashes of brilliance you see, is just a transition rebuilding year. A 50/50 record should already be slightly above expectation, you will doubtlessly experience some really frustrating losses. Some guy mentioned that he's going out of his mind watching good leads slip away in late stages, but that's part of the growing pain every young team has to go through. The fact you get leads in late stages against good teams should be highly encouraging when you have such an experienced young core in their first year playing together, instead of being viewed in negative lights.
The key to Lin's success is really on the coach to free his mind a bit. He can't be afraid of his failures right now and frankly he has to convince himself that he's an elite player deep down, maybe not right now, but he needs to believe that one day he's going to be an all star. He can't keep thinking about taking a backseat first, he needs to play to earn his teammates trust and respect by being who he is. If he can prove that he can handle his part, Harden while has a chip on his shoulder is not really a total a$$, Harden will adapt to him as well and enjoys the fact that he has a lighter load. Right now the team is in a bad balance because Lin keeps thinking about deferring, that ruins his game so Harden feels he has to do more, now the more Harden does the less in rhythm Lin is, then Lin wants to defer more or doubts himself. That minimize what both of these players can do.
A lot of people rag about Westbrook, but without Westbrook's style maybe KD won't be as aggressive because KD is by nature a mellow guy. I think Harden is the typical great scorer that needs someone else to be a bit assertive to keep him in check, otherwise Harden does more than he should and costs team games.
In the end let me make some predictions. I think this year is going to be a very rocky year. I don't have a great deal of faith in McHale as a coach so Lin and Harden has to figure most of this out by themselves. I think Lin and Harden both need some moments of epiphany to come to the conclusion that they need to have a more balanced act between them two. This year it'll be too late before they figure it out, if they figure it out. At most the Rockets will squeeze in the first round.
Next year I feel good, I think the Rockets have a core that can go to the 5th or 4th seed because they are young, they can run and abuse the older teams. They'll learn to play with each other and they'll be more experienced. But I don't see how they can overcome a team like OKC or Spurs anytime soon. Spurs just has an exceptional coach and system, so it'll be very difficult. The Lakers while old has some unbelievable pieces, so that team's success really depends on how their coach performs more than anything else.
Lin no doubt in my mind will earn his contract at 8 per. I think by the third year we'll get a really good idea of where his ceilings may be. If you look at his numbers he matches very well with Parker and Nash at this stage of their career, but it's a bit hard to project him to reach that level... but why not? He has the physical tools and he has the brain, I just don't know whether he has the personality. He won't ever be a complete player like Lebron, but who is? But he can be a very special player with some manageable flaws.
I just hope he comes to the understanding that once he gets on the court, he needs to release the hulk... he can go back to be the humble passive nerdy guy after he gets off the court. It'd be a tragic loss for basketball fans if he doesn't learn the trick...
I'm a Lin fan because of the kind of person he is and the flashes of potential he has shown, but I can see quite a few flaws in the guy's game.
I'm writing this on the date after his semi break out game vs. Spurs in a Houston uniform, let's see whether my unprofessional psycho analysis of the guy can stand up to the test of time.
Jeremy Lin is a very unique player. I think it's really important to keep that in mind. We can compare him with other NBA players, but his background, his path to the NBA, his personality, his skill sets dictate he's going to be an "one of a kind player" for quite a while, thus making him a pretty frustrating player to follow as well, because he's not "one of a kind special talent", he's just ... different from everyone else.
There's no doubt in my mind that his ceiling is high barring injuries (I won't mention injury again because frankly that's out of anyone's control). On any given night he can score 25 and dish out 5+ with 5 rebounds, that puts you into the elite guard category no matter how you look at it. However, on any night he can do that only if he's the Alpha on the floor.
This is not to say he's selfish, FAR FROM IT, this guy is one of the most selfless team player in the league and he really, really, really wants to be seen in that way. And that, my friends, is the single biggest snag in his personality that's going to give endless frustration to his followers.
We all know how he has developed that kind of personality, traditional Asian family, really devote Christian value system (during one of the interviews he said his preacher gave him a scolding after he became Linsanity because the old guy was worried that he'd become too full of himself... and Lin took it and thought it was a good thing), and most importantly, throughout his life everyone has told him he's not an elite talent.
Let's not underestimate this last point. Even though he was the top player on his team in his college days, but since he was in Harvard everyone simply didn't take his record that seriously. Later on the long discouraging road through the NBA D league & benches have reinforced that notion. I think deep down Lin himself has bought into that garbage. He knows he can play, but he's constantly doubting himself on how aggressively he should play. He's afraid of acting like an elite player because he thinks he's never going to be good enough on that level and people will really crap on him for thinking too highly of himself.
He simply doesn't want to be MJ, I think he wants to be Pippen or whichever important supporting guy on a good team. He wants people to say he's a selfless player more than he wants people to regard him as an elite scorer.
But that's unfortunately not who he is.
By fortune or misfortune depending on your perspective, he's developed a skill set through high school & college to be the Alpha on the team. We've all seen it, when all hopes were lost and everyone else was just a dis-spirited scrub like the Knicks team from last year, Lin could literally carry the team by himself. If they weren't playing the amazing Spurs last night, anyone have doubts Lin would win that game for the Rockets? Lin's skill set dictates he's a hybrid scoring guard. He truly shines when he knows he is the top option and his job is to make sure the team scores enough points, be it through scoring or passing, but he needs to be the one making those decisions, not someone else.
Again this is not to say he's selfish, he simply has grown used to be that option in his younger days, he can and will find ways to put the ball in the basket when he doesn't have to think, when he can just play and let nature take over.
Lin is like the hulk in a way, his natural instinct is really high as a ball player, but the demands and expectations of the world around him keeps his inner beast caged.
So now we have a problem. His strength doesn't fit his personality and his strength really gives a coach headaches. You can ask him to "play within the system", and we all know he wants to. You can ask him to be a complimentary player to the Alpha on this team which is Harden and you know Lin will make every effort to be that complimentary player, but by making such an unnatural effort Lin totally gets lost. When he brings the ball down the court instead of studying the defense he's looking for Harden to pass off the ball, when he cuts into the lane instead of thinking about how to score he's thinking about how to involve as many guys as possible, he has all those annoying 1-2 seconds hesitations because he's trying to think in the middle of the action and it totally messes his rhythm up.
He's constantly fighting against his nature and everyone knows that's a fight you don't want to have.
Now you can say, well, let him be the Alpha or let him handle the ball more. But it's just not that simple. Let's face it, we live in a competitive real world. Even though I think he can be really good, right now he's not as good a player as Harden and Harden finally getting out of the bench role from OKC is trying to prove himself. To co-exist with Harden is not a matter of choice, but a matter of necessity. To let Lin go to the bench is a also a really silly suggestion because frankly you are trying to develop both Harden & Lin, this is not Ginobli already being completely set as a player then got asked to take on a different role in a championship team by a championship coach due to age & injury concerns. To move Lin to the bench essentially is to give up on trying to build this team together before it got started.
Is it completely hopeless then for Lin?
Speaking for me... I don't think so. The number one thing us fans lack but really will gain a bit with age is patience. Who before the season really thought this team was going to be a championship team this year??? Who before the season really thought Harden was going to be THIS EXCEPTIONAL a scorer? Who among us didn't at least have some doubts of whether Lin could even be an average player? How much beef Morey caught for dealing for these three young core players? The fact is this year, no matter what flashes of brilliance you see, is just a transition rebuilding year. A 50/50 record should already be slightly above expectation, you will doubtlessly experience some really frustrating losses. Some guy mentioned that he's going out of his mind watching good leads slip away in late stages, but that's part of the growing pain every young team has to go through. The fact you get leads in late stages against good teams should be highly encouraging when you have such an experienced young core in their first year playing together, instead of being viewed in negative lights.
The key to Lin's success is really on the coach to free his mind a bit. He can't be afraid of his failures right now and frankly he has to convince himself that he's an elite player deep down, maybe not right now, but he needs to believe that one day he's going to be an all star. He can't keep thinking about taking a backseat first, he needs to play to earn his teammates trust and respect by being who he is. If he can prove that he can handle his part, Harden while has a chip on his shoulder is not really a total a$$, Harden will adapt to him as well and enjoys the fact that he has a lighter load. Right now the team is in a bad balance because Lin keeps thinking about deferring, that ruins his game so Harden feels he has to do more, now the more Harden does the less in rhythm Lin is, then Lin wants to defer more or doubts himself. That minimize what both of these players can do.
A lot of people rag about Westbrook, but without Westbrook's style maybe KD won't be as aggressive because KD is by nature a mellow guy. I think Harden is the typical great scorer that needs someone else to be a bit assertive to keep him in check, otherwise Harden does more than he should and costs team games.
In the end let me make some predictions. I think this year is going to be a very rocky year. I don't have a great deal of faith in McHale as a coach so Lin and Harden has to figure most of this out by themselves. I think Lin and Harden both need some moments of epiphany to come to the conclusion that they need to have a more balanced act between them two. This year it'll be too late before they figure it out, if they figure it out. At most the Rockets will squeeze in the first round.
Next year I feel good, I think the Rockets have a core that can go to the 5th or 4th seed because they are young, they can run and abuse the older teams. They'll learn to play with each other and they'll be more experienced. But I don't see how they can overcome a team like OKC or Spurs anytime soon. Spurs just has an exceptional coach and system, so it'll be very difficult. The Lakers while old has some unbelievable pieces, so that team's success really depends on how their coach performs more than anything else.
Lin no doubt in my mind will earn his contract at 8 per. I think by the third year we'll get a really good idea of where his ceilings may be. If you look at his numbers he matches very well with Parker and Nash at this stage of their career, but it's a bit hard to project him to reach that level... but why not? He has the physical tools and he has the brain, I just don't know whether he has the personality. He won't ever be a complete player like Lebron, but who is? But he can be a very special player with some manageable flaws.
I just hope he comes to the understanding that once he gets on the court, he needs to release the hulk... he can go back to be the humble passive nerdy guy after he gets off the court. It'd be a tragic loss for basketball fans if he doesn't learn the trick...
