I love Asik, but we should trade him IF we land Dwight

[2Harden2Handle]

It's easy to be seduced by the thought of two defensively dominant 7 footers protecting the paint and grabbing every rebounding in sight, but in our case there would be a price to pay for such luxury, and I'm not talking about the $28.9 million in combined salary Dwight Howard and Omer Asik would be making next year (assuming we sign Dwight for the max). The price I speak of is floor spacing or lack thereof, and the drop in offensive efficiency that would come with it. With two practically range-less big men on the floor at the same time, the defense will go up, but the offense will go down more than the defense will go up. Especially if you believe like I do that Terrence Jones has the makings of a very good defender in this league, he's slightly bigger than Al Horford but he moves like Josh Smith.

Zach Lowe once wrote a great article about how "packing the paint is the is the NBA defensive strategy forcing coaches to re-imagine scoring", illustrating a big part of the reason the NBA is becoming more and more perimeter orientated--the easiest way to punish defenses for packing the paint is by hurting them from outside. It's alot harder for defenses to rotate out to 4 shooters than 3, especially when all 4 of those guys can drive, kick, and/or swing the ball. Stopping the Harden/Dwight pick and roll with so many shooters spacing the floor would be a nightmare, especially considering how Dwight ranks 9th on pick and rolls via Synergy Sports and Harden ranks 5th among pick and roll handlers. However, with Asik at PF it would be a little easier for an uninvited guest to enter the paint and disrupt the pick and roll. I'm going to a clip from that article to further explain my point.

In this Warriors set, Asik would likely be playing the role of David Lee who is being guarded by Ryan Anderson. Watch how Anderson steps into the paint and gets right back to Lee with just a couple of steps.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_qmHhzfqdU&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
He still had to respect Lee a little because Lee can hit that mid-range shot, but Asik would get absolutely no respect at all out there. Regardless, it's that kind of "paint packing" that we want to avoid, and it would be a lot easier to counter it if we have four guys on the floor who can bury it from deep.

HISTORY PROVES IT:
If you noticed in the first round, the Warriors packed the paint against the 57 wins Nuggets whose high powered offense was completely exposed in the half-court. The Grizzlies did the same thing to the Clippers, and then got a taste of their own medicine against the Spurs. The Rockets would likely get a taste of that same medicine everytime we put both Dwight and Asik on the floor together, especially against the elite defensive teams we will be facing the playoffs come future years. And for what it's worth, we did get a taste in game 1 when we started both Omer Asik and Greg Smith together as we we got blown out by 29 points by the OKC Thunder. In the next 5 games we went with 4 shooters, and every one of those 5 games were close.

In the NBA finals, the Duncan/Splitter duo didn't work very well and alot of that had to do with how quick Miami's rotation defense is (although part of it also had to do with Splitter playing like crap). There are tricks to creating floor spacing without shooters, but it's not uncommon to see many floor spacing tricks get snuffed out in the playoffs where defenses are studying game-tape alot more extensively. Even if you look further back into history not much changes.

Since the merger, no team with a range-less front court has never made the NBA finals. Emphasis on range-less, because alot of people like to think of Hakeem, D-Robinson, Duncan, ect. when they're thinking of twin towers, but all those guys could consistently knock down a mid-range shot--something that can't be said about Dwight or Asik. Now that defenses have evolved, even a mid-range shot doesn't quite cut it, which I believe is part of the reason PF's like Duncan, Garnett, and Bosh have all moved to center.

ONLY TWO YEARS LEFT ON HIS CONTRACT:
The best GM's think several steps ahead like a chess master, and that's why it's important to think about what will happen when Asik's contract runs out in 2015. If Asik can only play back-up minutes in Houston, will we want to continue doing that for the rest of his career? I doubt it. Some team out there will offer him a BIG contract and a starting position, and we will have lost an extremely valuable asset for nothing. We don't need to rush, but there are incentives to trading him this off-season which I'm about to get to.

TRADE VALUE:
Obviously Asik is too valuable to play only back-up minutes, but it's impossible to win a championship without offensive synergy. I think it would be much wiser to trade Asik while his value is very high, assuming the likelihood we can get a big haul in return. Ofcourse, we don't need to rush, we can wait for the best possible offer while Furkan Aldemir proves to be a capable back-up center in the NBA (assuming we bring him over from Turkey this off-season which I'm guessing we will), but if we do decide to rush we have two great incentives--more cap space for second free agent target, and the likelihood many teams will be willing to pay a pretty penny for a defensive 7 foot center who rebounds at an elite level.

MILLSAP WOULD HELP US MORE THAN ASIK WOULD:
If Millsap's choices are between $8-9 million (mostly tax-free) and win a championship, or $10-12 million on another average team, I feel like our chances are at least half decent even if it's just a 2 year contract.

In the 2009 finals Dwight averaged 42.6 minutes, which leaves very little use for a back-up center. Obviously the Rockets play at a faster pace, so lets say the Rockets make the finals and Dwight averages only 38 minutes, that still leaves only 10 minutes for a back-up center. A guy like Millsap who would be playing 30-35 minutes in the finals which obviously will help us more than a guy playing only 10 minutes.

Millsap a better defender than most people realize (people focus too much on his average post-defense and shot blocking, he does everything else very well defensively), and I think he's a better shooter than he gets credit for. He made 51% of his corner 2's out of 72 shots (that's a decent enough sample size I'd say), and I think he can take a few steps back into that corner without his accuracy dropping below 35% (35% from 3 is equivalent to 52% from 2). For whatever it's worth, he made 6 out of 10 corner 3's this season. Keep in mind that he would get alot more open looks on the Rockets than he did on the Jazz, so I think my estimate that he can make 35% of his corner 3's is realistic if not modest. This kind of floor spacing would make it so much harder for defenses to pack the paint and stop the Harden/Dwight pick and roll.

So there you have it, a plethora of good reasons why it would be a good idea to trade Asik if we get Dwight. Don't ge tme wrong, I'm a big fan of Asik's defense and rebounding (I think he's as good a defender as DPoY winner Marc Gasol), but trading him if we get Dwight makes too much sense to me.

[MaxRider]

i still think we are better of spending money on Iguodala

[2Harden2Handle]

i still think we are better of spending money on Iguodala

Are you saying you would rather have Iguodala than Dwight?

[MaxRider]

i still think we are better of spending money on Iguodala

Are you saying you would rather have Iguodala than Dwight?

yes
i do not want Dwight Howard and Chris Paul

[moofs]

i still think we are better of spending money on Iguodala

Are you saying you would rather have Iguodala than Dwight?

Max gets grumpy about certain teams and people.
Nevermind that Iggy's a full year and a half older than Dwight and turning 30 next year.

Phenomenal post. I think it blows a solid nuke right through the middle of my 2C notion.

Link ref, btw:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/914 ... ir-offense

[Alex I Be]

So start Iguodala over Parsons???

[zapatasblood]

So start Iguodala over Parsons???

Over Lin I assume
Harden, Iggy, and Parsons backcourt

I really don't care for Howard rather try and get a PF, not Smith

[zapatasblood]

But yes a Howard and Asik frontcourt is just a bad idea

[Wonderllama]

I think Howard/Asik should be given a chance to see how it plays out on the court. You could always trade Asik at the deadline.


... but we're getting WAY too ahead of ourselves. Dwight is still a Laker at the moment. This ain't nothing but a pipe dream right now

[2Harden2Handle]

My opinion: You don't pass on a top 5-10 player when healthy for a top 20-30 player.

[Mr. E]

I think Howard/Asik should be given a chance to see how it plays out on the court. You could always trade Asik at the deadline.


... but we're getting WAY too ahead of ourselves. Dwight is still a Laker at the moment. This ain't nothing but a pipe dream right now

I agree with all of this.

[kam_soluusar]

I was with you, until you suggested that cock stain Paul Millsap.

Switch Millsap for Carl Landry, and we might talk more.

For the record I don't want D12 here in Houston. I could accept Chris Paul, but I am actually concerned about his knees. I think they only have 3-4 more seasons left in them.

[2Harden2Handle]

I was with you, until you suggested that cock stain Paul Millsap.

Switch Millsap for Carl Landry, and we might talk more.

For the record I don't want D12 here in Houston. I could accept Chris Paul, but I am actually concerned about his knees. I think they only have 3-4 more seasons left in them.

Millsap > Landry

According to practically every advanced metric commonly used on scouting reports and player profiles, it's not even close...

[kam_soluusar]

U forgot the metric about him being a Utah player. That gives a negative handicap. So it's impossible for him to be a better PF than Landry.

[The Weis Is Right]

I was with you, until you suggested that cock stain Paul Millsap.

Switch Millsap for Carl Landry, and we might talk more.

For the record I don't want D12 here in Houston. I could accept Chris Paul, but I am actually concerned about his knees. I think they only have 3-4 more seasons left in them.

Millsap > Landry

According to practically every advanced metric commonly used on scouting reports and player profiles, it's not even close...

I would rather touch neither. I am also lukewarm on Howard and would rather just roll with the team we have rather than acquire any of those three. LMA would make me change my tune though, as long as we didn't give up Asik or Parsons in the process...so it obviously won't happen.

[MaxRider]

So start Iguodala over Parsons???

Over Lin I assume
Harden, Iggy, and Parsons backcourt

I really don't care for Howard rather try and get a PF, not Smith

start all of them

Asik, Parsons, Iguodala, Harden, Lin

[zapatasblood]

Yea pass on that lineup

[tfmiii]

If you guys land Howard (and perhaps a lure in part to land howard) how about KG for Asik?

KG has the solid mid-range game, so he will help 'unpack' the paint on offense. He is still elite on defense. Need his minutes limited but with Howard on board that should not be such a problem.

Both he and Asik have two years left on their deals. KG only has $6 mil guaranteed on 2nd year, contrast with balloon payment Asik has coming.

KG is of course close to McHale from Minny years and if you guys land Howard you would obviously be a favorite to contend, so he may very well waive his No Trade Clause.

[moofs]

I've been wondering about that myself, what with KG's 37-ness.

[Mr. E]

Wouldn't adding KG for Asik kill our cap room to sign Dwight? Asik is 8.3 per year, KG is over 11M.