RealGM

I wrote this in the Mavs thread, but still don't see how it's happening.

So far, for the season, we're shooting 48% to opp 39%, rebounding 48 to 40, turning over 20 to 12, and fouling 20 to 28.
Yet our opponents are shooting 90 FGs to our 72!!

WHY?
Where are they getting all these extra shots from??

Seriously, I can't figure it out. I could see them getting maybe 5-8 shots more than us, but EIGHTEEN? How are they getting off 25% more shots than we are without any sort of statistic showing where they're getting those possessions?

I watched that Dallas game from start to finish but did not think they had taken 100 shots. Did not know that until I was in my car listening to Rockets postgame on the radio.

I'd imagine it's because teams are putting us on the line quite a bit (hack-a-Howard, Harden and Lin drives, etc.)

Shooting fouls doesn't count as shots. And HackaDwight takes away shots, also we have many turnovers.

We're taking 8 more per game on FTs, which amounts to ~4 possessions and puts us up to 9-12 shots.

Still a huge gap.

Well 8 more TOs and 4 less shots due to FTs already explains most of the discrepancy. The remainig ~6 shot discrepancy is likely due to the disparity in FG% since made shots mean no chance of offensive rebounds for 2nd chance opportunities.

BaYBaller wrote:Well 8 more TOs and 4 less shots due to FTs already explains most of the discrepancy. The remainig ~6 shot discrepancy is likely due to the disparity in FG% since made shots mean no chance of offensive rebounds for 2nd chance opportunities.

The problem there is that I'd think the +8 rebounds would largely negate the +8 TOs... Generally, each leads to an extra possession, yes?

moofs wrote:

BaYBaller wrote:Well 8 more TOs and 4 less shots due to FTs already explains most of the discrepancy. The remainig ~6 shot discrepancy is likely due to the disparity in FG% since made shots mean no chance of offensive rebounds for 2nd chance opportunities.

The problem there is that I'd think the +8 rebounds would largely negate the +8 TOs... Generally, each leads to an extra possession, yes?

You'd have to differentiate b/w offensive and defensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds would give you an extra possession, whereas defensive ones would only maintain the status quo of a 1:1 ratio.

Ok, so -2.3 possessions per ORB.
And the +10 on DRB just maintain status quo and have no effect. Sounds shaky, but I'll run with it.

11-14 shots/possessions.
Still missing 4-7.

Everything is shaky, because a possession does not necessarily equal a shot. A cleaner way to look at it (assuming you are looking for a 1:1 ratio) is the number of possessions each team got, although I'm not sure there is any public website that tracks that. Also you have to factor in who gets the last shot of each quarter as that also tips the scales (and also realize the final possession of a qtr also often leads to no shot, i.e. shot after the clock expires or too little time to get a good shot up ).

I get that it's going to be shaky, and don't really expect a clean 1:1 correlation with all those.
At the same time, I don't expect a 1:2 correlation, either.

We'll see if the trend continues. I'm mainly just curious about the driver, because I really never would've expected to see the disparity in shots, given the other stats.

On a different note: our point differential so far is 10.6. Typical league leader is around 7-9.

That's an interesting observation. After 3 games, the Rockets have taken 55 less FGA than the opponents. We took 38 more FTs, so that's roughly equivalent to 19 FGAs. So the differential is now down to 36 FGAs. We had 23 more TOs and 7 less OREBs, so that accounts for 30 FGAs.

Seems reasonable. After that, and per bay's point, I suppose those 10 DREBs made up for the extra FTs we took.