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As a Lin true only fan I can't help to say that James Harden is a true great player now. During the first months of this season, one day a ClutchFan pointed that Lin had great TS%.
Then I follow Harden and Lin's TS% and PPS to compare their stats.
Recently Harden's PPS and TS% were getting higher and higher.
To compare all guards both Lin and Harden have great stats in PPS an TS% among all guards whom played over 18 mins per game in the NBA.

http://ns.twhappy.com/?select=en,14,leader,advance,pps,all,g,mpg
PPS:
#1 James Harden 1.51
#2 Jeremy Lin 1.47
#3 Andre Iguodala 1.46

http://ns.twhappy.com/?select=en,14,leader,advance,ts,all,g,mpg
TS%:
#2 Andre Iguodala 0.646
#9 James Harden 0.605
#12 Jeremy Lin 0.597

what does pps mean?

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NamelessHero wrote:what does pps mean?

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Points per shot

I think Harden has really turned it around this year (2014), the last 5-6 games. A lot of fans were angry at him for Sacramento Kings loss on Dec.31 where he ISO'd the last 6 shots with multiple turnovers and fouls as well. Since then he's been playing well in the confines of team ball and has also come up big when needed. His shot has been very good in this stretch as well, night and day from 2013 so hope he keeps it up! This is the all-star level that he's capable of playing at.

Have to admit that I was getting very frustrated with him before this as it seemed as if he was trying too hard and not trusting his teammates. His numbers were very poor all-around, not to mention is liability of defense. Since that King's game he's been a much more efficient player.

13th Man wrote:I think Harden has really turned it around this year (2014), the last 5-6 games. A lot of fans were angry at him for Sacramento Kings loss on Dec.31 where he ISO'd the last 6 shots with multiple turnovers and fouls as well. Since then he's been playing well in the confines of team ball and has also come up big when needed. His shot has been very good in this stretch as well, night and day from 2013 so hope he keeps it up! This is the all-star level that he's capable of playing at.

Have to admit that I was getting very frustrated with him before this as it seemed as if he was trying too hard and not trusting his teammates. His numbers were very poor all-around, not to mention is liability of defense. Since that King's game he's been a much more efficient player.

that's the key with Harden. every team needs scoring. it's not the scoring, it's how he is scoring. when he looks off his teammates to go ISO, it disrupts the offense (another issue). the issue isn't Harden's ISO, it's when he ISO. If the shot clock or game clock is going down, sure ISO get the last shot, go one-on-one. but with 15 seconds on the shot clock?

tonman wrote:

13th Man wrote:I think Harden has really turned it around this year (2014), the last 5-6 games. A lot of fans were angry at him for Sacramento Kings loss on Dec.31 where he ISO'd the last 6 shots with multiple turnovers and fouls as well. Since then he's been playing well in the confines of team ball and has also come up big when needed. His shot has been very good in this stretch as well, night and day from 2013 so hope he keeps it up! This is the all-star level that he's capable of playing at.

Have to admit that I was getting very frustrated with him before this as it seemed as if he was trying too hard and not trusting his teammates. His numbers were very poor all-around, not to mention is liability of defense. Since that King's game he's been a much more efficient player.

that's the key with Harden. every team needs scoring. it's not the scoring, it's how he is scoring. when he looks off his teammates to go ISO, it disrupts the offense (another issue). the issue isn't Harden's ISO, it's when he ISO. If the shot clock or game clock is going down, sure ISO get the last shot, go one-on-one. but with 15 seconds on the shot clock?

I must agreed with you on that one.

Contrary to what many people think, yes, offensively Harden and T. Jones saved the day during the crucial 4th qt. against the Wiz.
But we should've never got into that type of predicament in the first place if it wasn't for Harden repeatedly going after ISO during mid 3rd qt. though we had a big lead. As a result, not only he destroyed the ball movement for the rest of players but the "team concept defense system" got destroyed along with it. Since, a good defensive game is interrelated with a good offensive "team" basketball.

Unlike, Harden who can score at will due to his superior physical athleticism, the rest of guys need ball movement to get their shots off comfortably. With proper spacing, most of players in NBA level can score and Harden must realize he needs to keep the ball movement alive to have the rest of his team-mates to be relevant in the game rather then using them as stationary props by holding and dribbling excessively while destroying the ball movement.

McHale needs to prioritize ball movement as our base of our game and use Harden's ISO game as either a part of set play or when the shot clock running down or at least limit his consecutive ISO possession to maximum of two in a row.

I'm really not trying to pick on Harden but he is our first option and has a captainship of the Rockets.
A position which is very influential. Whether Harden knows or not but his action does influence tremendously on how the rest of team plays.

The issue I have with Harden is when he demands the ball every possession and then goes ISO. He holds the ball for 18+ seconds and everyone else just stand around and do nothing. I don't mind the ISO, but do something with it. And don't demand the ball, let the game flow.

Some good points. He's the premier player on this team but he's no Michael Jordan who should have the ball in his hands on every possession down the stretch. Even Lebron doesn't demand the ball every possession, there are times where Wade or Bosh get to do their thing as well.

jlfans wrote:As a Lin true only fan I can't help to say that James Harden is a true great player now. During the first months of this season, one day a ClutchFan pointed that Lin had great TS%.
Then I follow Harden and Lin's TS% and PPS to compare their stats.
Recently Harden's PPS and TS% were getting higher and higher.
To compare all guards both Lin and Harden have great stats in PPS an TS% among all guards whom played over 18 mins per game in the NBA.

http://ns.twhappy.com/?select=en,14,leader,advance,pps,all,g,mpg
PPS:
#1 James Harden 1.51
#2 Jeremy Lin 1.47
#3 Andre Iguodala 1.46

http://ns.twhappy.com/?select=en,14,leader,advance,ts,all,g,mpg
TS%:
#2 Andre Iguodala 0.646
#9 James Harden 0.605
#12 Jeremy Lin 0.597

the lists are a joke

you see names like chris douglas roberts pablo prigioni kendall marshall jose calderon high on the lists

harden is a top guard in the nba lin is not

thank you

as a rockets fan i hate haren
he's doing what steve francis was doing in the early 2000s
yes i hate francis and mobley

As a Lin fan I can only say that those who think Harden is the blame for all our offensive stoppages, that the other Rockets players are without fault, need especially to take a long look at their own perspectives. Our offense generally stops the most during the first 3.5 quarters when Parsons is sitting on the bench. Wherever or not Harden is on the court seldom makes a difference until the fourth quarter when the score is close. At which point, every team that plays organized competition feeds the ball to the star player. Then as the first option, the star player runs something for himself, if that play simply breaks down, then it goes to the second, the third, etc option until someone puts up a shot before the shot clock expires.

As the first option, Harden can dish off the dribble, but he's also adept at drawing fouls. If you can weaken paint defense by way of foul trouble on post defenders, it is considerably a more damaging strategy, especially if you have the lead. Wilting away a defense piecemeal, especially if you have the lead, makes extending the lead a bit easier. A PF or Center, as the best post defender in foul trouble is a great time to crash the boards and fight for offensive rebounds. I'm not surprised that the Houston Rockets optimal strategy in the last 5 minutes of the game is have Harden crash into the paint and try to draw a foul for 2-3 possessions in a row. It's not a bad idea if you are just a wee bit ahead if you think of it is jabbing away at a defense and setting up for one final knock out run.

As to why True Shot and points per possession bug me, it is because the numbers are not adjusted for the difficulty of the shot. Teams have SportsVU access for stats and these numbers are not as difficult to generate since the statistician can get numbers on who has the ball, who's got ball on the defense, how fast the ball is being moved around and how everyone is moving with respect to everyone. And yet, there is no weight on each shot given the interval of time in the shot clock said shot is taken. There is no adjusted weight on said shot with respect to the quality of the defender nor the level of defense intensity offered by the individual defender's intensity, let alone the quality of the opposing team's team defense. With the kind of data teams have now, these stats are just as outdated as the fg and 3fg% numbers were five years ago.

When people say, Lin has a similar PPS and TS% to James Harden and should get a more evenly distributed number of offensive possessions, Lin has been on the second string for the majority of this season so far. Until recently, he's not going up against starters. Until the advent of Beverly's prolonged injury, It has not an apples to apples discussion.

There are better stats out there, like WARP or WARP/48, that at least normalizes a player's performance W.R.T to an average player at his same position, but still, realistically, neither Jeremy Lin and Harden play traditional positions. They are both combo guards, with one's skillsets tending towards a traditional point and the other tending towards a traditional 2. Regardless of what the sporting press would like their audience to believe, player comparisons are difficult to do accurately. That by using verbiage that pigeon holes players into positions, muddles the issue all the more.

PPS is a lot more accurate and informative stat than any of WARP or WARP/48, which do not measure the entire variation in the quantity they mean to derive.

Your argument from PPS tends from the general question regarding applicability of stats to basketball which is a very non-causal sport as compared to baseball, which is a lot more conducive to analytics.

SlavaMedvedenko wrote:PPS is a lot more accurate and informative stat than any of WARP or WARP/48, which do not measure the entire variation in the quantity they mean to derive.

Your argument from PPS tends from the general question regarding applicability of stats to basketball which is a very non-causal sport as compared to baseball, which is a lot more conducive to analytics.

Edits abound:

If you want to back up your assertions with correlation coefficients to and show me that WARP/48 totals across the team has a lower R^2 to wins than PPS, I'd gladly change my mind.

In the case of Lin to Harden, instead of having a stat that tries to take into account of variability and use a stat that doesn't and pretend that it doesn't matter is a mistake.

The entire point of norming a large vector of performance metrics to a number is that you lose variation for the sake of the advantages of employing one simple reference number. My point is when people quote a number as an empirical indicator of performance, they are not taking into account how these numbers are derived. PPS would be an okay metric say between TMAC and Kobe 5 years ago, where both were heavily featured on their offense, but between two players on the same team who don't even play the same position, let alone a similar role on offense is a bit careless.

If I had a problem with stats with basketball in the first place, then I wouldn't prefer one normed metric over another. I'd simply advocate for neither and ask the other posters here to 'watch the game'. There is a long stream of consciousness posts, from more than one poster, pertaining to the merits of one player to another over the evidence of _one stat_. I have no issue with 'advanced' stats, I have a bit of probability under my belt. My response was what I took issue with. As per your post, I only wished you took the time to see regard what I wrote within the context herein and didn't jump to statements that would otherwise lead me to hold you in lower regard than you deserve.

@spolgar have no idea how to crop a portion of your quote but here goes.

I do understand by putting entire blame on a single player isn't a good idea since after all BB game is still a team game and everyone should get an equal or at least partial blame as well.
I have NOOO problem, Harden getting the ball at the end of the game eps. when we have a comfortable lead, to get the most highest % shot available by driving straight to the basket either to get call or to score without worrying about our TO epidemic. Also that should be the ideal way to close out the game since Harden is our best scorer.

But the problem that I have with him during the Wiz game and most of all games so far is that he literally destroys the ball movement which lead to collapse of team concept basketball in both ends because he does not use his skill set within the flow of the game rather he stops the momentum of the ball movement by dribbling and holding the ball excessively where the ball movement becomes secondary nature to the team and only his skill set becomes a viable option to get points while team mates following his method of play by jacking up shots left and right without any spacing.

I totally agree with you on usage of Harden's skill set as our final knock out blow since his offensive skill is as potent as it can be but no matter how good he is offensively he needs to learn how to keep the ball movement alive which we had it going surprisingly in the Wiz game up until mid way through the 3rd.

And No, I have no different agenda or harbor any mean spirited feeling towards Harden. I just want what's best for the team.

spolgar wrote:

SlavaMedvedenko wrote:PPS is a lot more accurate and informative stat than any of WARP or WARP/48, which do not measure the entire variation in the quantity they mean to derive.

Your argument from PPS tends from the general question regarding applicability of stats to basketball which is a very non-causal sport as compared to baseball, which is a lot more conducive to analytics.

Edits abound:

If you want to back up your assertions with correlation coefficients to and show me that WARP/48 totals across the team has a lower R^2 to wins than PPS, I'd gladly change my mind. .

Why would you even correlate WARP or PPS with team wins when you are using it to compare two players and more specifically on their scoring efficiency?

Kevin Love is one of the league leaders in PPS and that does not in any way correlate to his team's win totals.

I've never really been a fan of simplified metrics that try to encompass the entirety of a player's performance, but targeted stats like PPP on PnRs for instance is a very informative number. It paints a picture of where certain players excel, and while this can be parsed out somewhat using the "eye test," the exact degree of that effectiveness is best parsed out from specific, targeted stats. These are usable stats as a coach, as ultimately the coach is there to put your players in the best position to succeed.

SlavaMedvedenko wrote:
Why would you even correlate WARP or PPS with team wins when you are using it to compare two players and more specifically on their scoring efficiency?

Kevin Love is one of the league leaders in PPS and that does not in any way correlate to his team's win totals.

Do you know that for a fact? So if Kevin Love's scoring points per shot or points per possession went way down the Timberwolves would still be playing at 500?

The reason why advance metrics exist is to deconstruct what makes a winning basketball team. If a stat doesn't reflect a part of the basketball reality where it is indicative of the result of the game, then there's no point in computing it in the first place.

spolgar wrote:When people say, Lin has a similar PPS and TS% to James Harden and should get a more evenly distributed number of offensive possessions, Lin has been on the second string for the majority of this season so far. Until recently, he's not going up against starters. Until the advent of Beverly's prolonged injury, It has not an apples to apples discussion.

Today was Lin's 19th start in 29 games. Injury to Beverly doesn't account for all his starts. His PPS was even higher at the beginning of the season.

tonman wrote:Today was Lin's 19th start in 29 games. Injury to Beverly doesn't account for all his starts. His PPS was even higher at the beginning of the season.

Yes, and for the first month and a half of the season, he didn't start the majority of the games until Beverly was injured. In fact, if you don't take into account the games after 11/5, all of Lin's starts come from Beverly or Harden being injured. As I said:

"Until the advent of Beverly's prolonged injury, it has not been an apples to apples discussion."

Please take into account of that sentence when you quote me.

His PPS was higher in the very very beginning of the season when we started 3-1 out of the gate and were blowing teams out. Not only was Lin scoring well, everyone was scoring well. Then we hit a wall. We almost went back down to 500 ball.

Beverly is suppose to be out for 4/6 weeks since 12/21. It's been three weeks. The season so far has been 10.5 weeks long. That's two thirds of the season so far that Lin has been mostly playing in the second unit. I went through the ESPN's game logs between the start of the season and when Beverly went out. Data is below.

10/30/2013: Charlotte: Beverly started
11/1/2013: Dallas: Lin started
11/2/2013: Jazz: Lin started
11/3/2013: Clippers: Lin started
11/5/2013: Blazers: Lin started
11/7/2013: Lakers: Beverly started
11/9/2013: Clippers: Beverly started
11/11/2013: Raptors: Beverly started (but Lin played 46 minutes because of double overtime)
11/13/2013: Philly: Both Beverly and Lin started. Harden was out because of bad feet
11/14/2013: Knicks: Beverly started
11/16/2013: Nuggets: Beverly started
11/19/2013: Celtics: Beverly Started
11/20/2013: Mavericks: Beverly Started
11/23/2013: TWolves: Both Started. Harden out.
11/25/2013: Grizz: Both Started. Harden out.
11/27/2013: Hawks: Both Started.
11/29/2013: Nets: Beverly Started.
11/30/2013: Spurs: Beverly Started. NB: Lin was injured.
12/2/2013: Jazz: Beverly Started.
12/4/2013: Suns: Beverly Started.
12/6/2013: Warriors: Beverly Started.
12/8/2013: Magic: Beverly Started.
12/12/2013: Blazers: Beverly Started.
12/13/2013: Warriors: Beverly Started.
12/15/2013: Kings: Beverly Started.
12/18/2013: Bulls: Beverly Started.
12/20/2013: Pacers: Beverly Started.
12/21/2013: Detroit: Beverly Started. Then his injury happened.

Lin has performed the majority of this season still from (the confines of) the second unit. He's only been starting for a bit over a 1/3 of the season thus far. A large chunk of his performance numbers have stemmed from the time he was in the second unit. I'm not saying that takes away from Lin's accomplishments, what I am saying is that the environment for comparing Lin and Harden numbers are not similar enough to take PPS at face value, as said stat doesn't take into account of the defensive capabilities of the opponent. WASP at least tries.

spolgar wrote:His PPS was higher in the very very beginning of the season when we started 3-1 out of the gate and were blowing teams out. Not only was Lin scoring well, everyone was scoring well. Then we hit a wall. We almost went back down to 500 ball.

Not only PPS is meaningful but also TS% if you take eye test in both two stats.
TS%:

Guards
http://ns.twhappy.com/?select=en,14,leader,advance,ts,all,g,mpg
When you select data by (Guard, Average Over 18 Mins Per Game) and sort by TS%. Then put your eyes in the column (FGApg. Field Goals Attempted Per Game) whom attempted over 10, you will easy find two player #5 Wesley Matthews(POR) and #11 James Harden(HOU).
Combine two player in FGApg and TS%:
POR
#5 Wesley Matthews 12.0, 0.620
#18 Damian Lillard 16.0, 0.586
HOU
#10 Jeremy Lin 9.5, 0.604
#11 James Harden 16.5, 0.600

Forward
http://ns.twhappy.com/?select=en,14,leader,advance,ts,all,f,mpg
When you select data by (Forward, Average Over 18 Mins Per Game) and sort by TS%. Then put your eyes in the column (FGApg. Field Goals Attempted Per Game) whom attempted over 10, you will easy find #3 LeBron James(MIA), #6 Kevin Durant(OKC), #10 Chandler Parsons(HOU), #13 Chris Bosh(MIA), #14 Dirk Nowitzki(DAL).
Their FGApg and TS%:
#3 LeBron James(MIA) 16.1, 0.672
#6 Kevin Durant(OKC) 19.2 0.627
#10 Chandler Parsons(HOU) 12.7 0.603
#13 Chris Bosh(MIA) 11.4 0.592
#14 Dirk Nowitzki(DAL) 15.8 0.591