[Stats] If we trade Lin Pre-ASB, how big a loss would it be?

Lorenzomax7 · Post #1 » by **Lorenzomax7** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:35 pm

I did a research last month on different point margins within a game. I focused more on the RCS－Regular Clutch Situation, which are NOT only at the last five minutes of the game. In written form it might be "Ahead or Behind 1 - 5 Points & Tied situations" or "Leading, Trailing or Tied within 5 points". I found out that Jeremy Lin was such a "Clutch-general" among *Top guards Pre-ASB. And Here we go...

* There're 88 qualified players.

1. Lin shot 51.7% Pre-ASB, which was ranked 4th best among these Top guards* in the NBA :
http://ww3.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1eefinikxt6j21ge1obnpd.jpg

2. Lin used 18% of his plays to shoot 3pointers, which was ranked 52th most :
http://ww3.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1eefim1qxvlj21ge1obnpd.jpg

3. Lin was shooting 48.3% on 3pt, which was ranked 2nd best :

http://ww3.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1 ... 1obnpd.jpg

4. Lin had the 5th best plus-minus per 48 minutes ( Bev was Top #1 ) :
http://ww4.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1 ... 1obnpd.jpg

5. Lin ranked 47th most on plays per 48 min :
http://ww4.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1 ... 1obnpd.jpg

6. Lin ranked 29th most on dumb plays* per 48 min :
http://ww4.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1 ... 1obnpd.jpg

* It estimates how great were the % of plays which were handed over to the opponent by a player.
The formula is : Dumb% = 100% * ( TOV + 0.74 * ( FGA - FGM ) ) / ( FGA + 0.44 * FTA + AST + TOV ) / MIN * 48

7. Lin ranked 9th best on PPP - Points Per Plays, meanwhile, he used only 18% of his plays to shoot 3pt :
http://ww1.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1 ... 1obnpd.jpg

I also made some charts to compared Lin with his teammates and those top 3pt shooters among 1&2 guards :

http://ww4.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1edvxga4qtnj20wn2qcay9.jpg

Best 3pt shooters @ 1 guard :
Nelson
Hill
Lowry
Lillard
Augustin
Chalmers
Calderon
Collison

Best 3pt shooters @ 2 guard :
K-Mart
Gordon
Henderson
Beal
Thompson
Reddick
Matthews
CJ Miles
Belinelli
Korver

If we trade Lin Pre-ASB, How big a loss is it?

My answer is... BIG

Alex I Be · Post #2 » by **Alex I Be** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 8:33 pm

Not really. Dude sucks. One good game outta 10 aint ganna get it done. I dont want him even playing anymore. He disappears in big games

victorhe · Post #3 » by **victorhe** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:51 pm

Alex I Be wrote:Not really. Dude sucks. One good game outta 10 aint ganna get it done. I dont want him even playing anymore. He disappears in big games

I don't understand, what did Lin ever do to you? I agree it's better to trade Lin away, but why so much resentment? It just seems that no other player ever received so much hatred in the history of NBA regardless of his modest attitude. Imagine if you become an Asian one day and have to walk through all the craps throwing at you, not sure if you can handle better than Lin.

spolgar · Post #4 » by **spolgar** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:10 am

victorhe wrote:
Alex I Be wrote:Not really. Dude sucks. One good game outta 10 aint ganna get it done. I dont want him even playing anymore. He disappears in big games

I don't understand, what did Lin ever do to you? I agree it's better to trade Lin away, but why so much resentment? It just seems that no other player ever received so much hatred in the history of NBA regardless of his modest attitude. Imagine if you become an Asian one day and have to walk through all the craps throwing at you, not sure if you can handle better than Lin.

That's not anymore resentful that the Luther Head/Rafer Alston days. Lin's not be playing well and save for the Portland game he's been averaging less than 25 minutes a game, shooting at a 26% clip from 3.

I think Beverly's go get it style of ball is infectious to a team that is already lopsided on talent. His activity is immediately infectious to those that watch him. Lin's presence doesn't affect the game unless he is playing well. Unless he made a couple of shots in the game or facilitated the offense in an overt manner in consecutive plays down the court, he isn't noticeably there. Lin is as much of a Hot/Cold player as anyone in the league, and when he's cold he's more aggravating to watch than a bad Micheal Beasley and a bad Jamal Crawford combined.

Beverly can handle the ball for around 3 seconds in a shot clock, and regardless of who is taking the shot, my eye inadvertently tracks him as he moves off the ball. He's almost always doing something that amounts to an attempt at an aggressively executed, but mostly right play. That rotation to block Lebron at the rim towards the end of the fourth quarter, for example, is as good as any weak side help I've seen from any guard in this league. (The tech that followed afterwards was... not so much).

There were multiple points in the game where Lin was moving away from the ball, getting into his corner, then Harden/Parsons/Beverly couldn't get the ball to him because Lin moved to his designated point on the spot of the court programmatically. Without considering the mechanics of receiving a bounce or a chest pass, such as line of sight, Lin inadvertently removed himself from the play. It's like he's not use to playing off the ball, so he doesn't instinctively move in a manner where it will maker the passer get the ball easier to him.

Lin needs to accept that he's not going to be the main ball handler on the court for stretches of the game. Sometimes if he's shooting well, his presence in the corner becomes a decoy at the very least. Without his shot, he needs to go figure out how to do other things to generate plays in favor of his team.

texasholdem · Post #5 » by **texasholdem** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:52 am

I still can't believe how often he picks up his dribble in the paint. Maybe because Worrell always points it out but he does it like 4 or more times a game. You would think a Harvard man would know that is not good basketball.

I don't think the crap thrown at Lin is anything compared to what Rocket fans threw at Matt Maloney. He was a playoff hero his rookie year and then he signed a big contract and his production plummeted. Houston turned on him so fast.

Post #6 » by **Mr. E** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:54 am

texasholdem wrote:I don't think the crap thrown at LiIn is anything compared to what Rocket fans threw at Matt Maloney. He was a playoff hero his rookie year and then he signed a big contract and his production plummeted. Houston turned on him so fast.

So much truth here. Dude went from Hero to Zero so fast as far as Rocket fans were concerned.

Lorenzomax7 - haven't started to go through all of your work yet, but I appreciate you taking the time to do it and share it.

KungFuJoe · Post #7 » by **KungFuJoe** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:19 am

texasholdem wrote:I still can't believe how often he picks up his dribble in the paint. Maybe because Worrell always points it out but he does it like 4 or more times a game. You would think a Harvard man would know that is not good basketball.

I don't think the crap thrown at Lin is anything compared to what Rocket fans threw at Matt Maloney. He was a playoff hero his rookie year and then he signed a big contract and his production plummeted. Houston turned on him so fast.

Part of the reason is because he's such a slasher who goes to the hole. He sees the opening, he dribbles, and because he's not a two foot jumper at all, he needs that one-two jump...but it's like he sees an opening to do the gather and one two...but someone cuts him off or the path is closed and it's like, "OH ****, pick up dribble".

The other part is what has already been mentioned...his handles aren't tight enough to get him out of situations like that. I hope Lin works on his handles big time in the off season...it's his one BIG weakness right now. If he could develop "savvier" handles, his game would explode.

Lorenzomax7 · Post #8 » by **Lorenzomax7** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:31 am

Mr. E wrote:
texasholdem wrote:I don't think the crap thrown at LiIn is anything compared to what Rocket fans threw at Matt Maloney. He was a playoff hero his rookie year and then he signed a big contract and his production plummeted. Houston turned on him so fast.

So much truth here. Dude went from Hero to Zero so fast as far as Rocket fans were concerned.

Lorenzomax7 - haven't started to go through all of your work yet, but I appreciate you taking the time to do it and share it.

Thanks. I got one more post to share later.

Lorenzomax7 · Post #9 » by **Lorenzomax7** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:43 am

spolgar wrote:
victorhe wrote:
Alex I Be wrote:Not really. Dude sucks. One good game outta 10 aint ganna get it done. I dont want him even playing anymore. He disappears in big games

I don't understand, what did Lin ever do to you? I agree it's better to trade Lin away, but why so much resentment? It just seems that no other player ever received so much hatred in the history of NBA regardless of his modest attitude. Imagine if you become an Asian one day and have to walk through all the craps throwing at you, not sure if you can handle better than Lin.

That's not anymore resentful that the Luther Head/Rafer Alston days. Lin's not be playing well and save for the Portland game he's been averaging less than 25 minutes a game, shooting at a 26% clip from 3.

I think Beverly's go get it style of ball is infectious to a team that is already lopsided on talent. His activity is immediately infectious to those that watch him. Lin's presence doesn't affect the game unless he is playing well. Unless he made a couple of shots in the game or facilitated the offense in an overt manner in consecutive plays down the court, he isn't noticeably there. Lin is as much of a Hot/Cold player as anyone in the league, and when he's cold he's more aggravating to watch than a bad Micheal Beasley and a bad Jamal Crawford combined.

Because you have "high hopes & high standard" on him? He is basically used as "Jarrett Jack" in the Rox. Jarrett Jack is not even a borderline-star. It sounds like you want him to perform like a star. Don't get me wrong. There's no wrong to ask for more from Jeremy. But uh... according to Coach McHale, the Rox just don't need Jeremy to play like "Linsanity" every night right now. I guess "13 pts and 4 ast" is already good enough for him.

TBH... as Lin's huge fan... I had predicted only 12 pts and 5 ast from him when the Pre-season games were over 5 months ago.

MaxRider · Post #10 » by **MaxRider** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:53 pm

i rather have jack than lin
jack is at least consistent

moofs · Post #11 » by **moofs** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:00 pm

texasholdem wrote:I don't think the crap thrown at LiIn is anything compared to what Rocket fans threw at Matt Maloney. He was a playoff hero his rookie year and then he signed a big contract and his production plummeted. Houston turned on him so fast.

Carroll Dawson LOVED to give out stupid contracts based on small sample sizes.

I wouldn't exactly call Maloney a "playoff hero" though. More like "he pretty much singlehandedly lost us the playoffs."

adrenaLINe · Post #12 » by **adrenaLINe** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:12 pm

MaxRider wrote:i rather have jack than lin
jack is at least consistent

Lin as a pass first shooting guard...is mediocre and useless for this team...

coming of the bench he needs to look for his shot... but mainly take it to the hoop

last game he took pretty boneheaded shots...

your logic is unsound

jack gives you nothing...

at least when Lin has good shooting games, he gives you something... even if it is one out of ten games

dude needs to be traded... he is not good enough to come off the bench and be consistent at it

texasholdem · Post #13 » by **texasholdem** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:17 pm

moofs wrote:
texasholdem wrote:I don't think the crap thrown at LiIn is anything compared to what Rocket fans threw at Matt Maloney. He was a playoff hero his rookie year and then he signed a big contract and his production plummeted. Houston turned on him so fast.

Carroll Dawson LOVED to give out stupid contracts based on small sample sizes.

I wouldn't exactly call Maloney a "playoff hero" though. More like "he pretty much singlehandedly lost us the playoffs."

We don't beat Seattle without him to even get to face Utah. Drexler was supposed to be guarding Stockton on that buzzer beater.

spolgar · Post #14 » by **spolgar** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:28 pm

Lorenzomax7 wrote:
Because you have "high hopes & high standard" on him? He is basically used as "Jarrett Jack" in the Rox. Jarrett Jack is not even a borderline-star. It sounds like you want him to perform like a star. Don't get me wrong. There's no wrong to ask for more from Jeremy. But uh... according to Coach McHale, the Rox just don't need Jeremy to play like "Linsanity" every night right now. I guess "13 pts and 4 ast" is already good enough for him.

TBH... as Lin's huge fan... I had predicted only 12 pts and 5 ast from him when the Pre-season games were over 5 months ago.

I am aware of his usage case. You need to reread what I wrote again. I stated that if Lin's shot wasn't falling, I would like him to figure out how to affect the game without touching the ball. I also wrote a bit how he makes me facepalm when he goes to the corner without any regard for where the ball is, and then wonders why the ball doesn't come to him. He's not used as Jarrett Jack at all, if anything, Beverly is.

I wouldn't mind Lin performing like a star, but regardless of his statistical output, he needs to be a lot more engaged.

MaxRider · Post #15 » by **MaxRider** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:38 pm

adrenaLINe wrote:
MaxRider wrote:i rather have jack than lin
jack is at least consistent

Lin as a pass first shooting guard...is mediocre and useless for this team...

coming of the bench he needs to look for his shot... but mainly take it to the hoop

last game he took pretty boneheaded shots...

your logic is unsound

jack gives you nothing...

at least when Lin has good shooting games, he gives you something... even if it is one out of ten games

dude needs to be traded... he is not good enough to come off the bench and be consistent at it

jack has a better season in golden state and new orleans than lin in houston
he's bad in cleveland because they are a bad team

let me ask you this
who doesn't help you when they have a good shooting game?
your logic doesn't make sense

you don't see the problem
when lin is on the floor he just pass the ball to haren or parsons and go spot up in the corner
you guys are asking the coach to start this guy
that's why mchale bench him so he can play more time without haren or parsons
problem is he aint trying to score and keep passing the ball out
oh yes he is better going to different team
problem is he sucks so bad no one want him

moofs · Post #16 » by **moofs** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:21 pm

texasholdem wrote:
moofs wrote:
texasholdem wrote:I don't think the crap thrown at LiIn is anything compared to what Rocket fans threw at Matt Maloney. He was a playoff hero his rookie year and then he signed a big contract and his production plummeted. Houston turned on him so fast.

Carroll Dawson LOVED to give out stupid contracts based on small sample sizes.

I wouldn't exactly call Maloney a "playoff hero" though. More like "he pretty much singlehandedly lost us the playoffs."

We don't beat Seattle without him to even get to face Utah. Drexler was supposed to be guarding Stockton on that buzzer beater.

With a real PG, Stockton probably wouldn't have been in a position to make a game-winning 3.

texasholdem · Post #17 » by **texasholdem** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:07 pm

moofs wrote:
texasholdem wrote:
moofs wrote:
Carroll Dawson LOVED to give out stupid contracts based on small sample sizes.

I wouldn't exactly call Maloney a "playoff hero" though. More like "he pretty much singlehandedly lost us the playoffs."

We don't beat Seattle without him to even get to face Utah. Drexler was supposed to be guarding Stockton on that buzzer beater.

With a real PG, Stockton probably wouldn't have been in a position to make a game-winning 3.

Matt was an undrafted rookie and Stockton was the best PG at the time. Even Gary Payton said he was the toughest player to defend. Karl Malone was illegally screening Drexler just like LeBron was illegally screening Lin yesterday!

ChokeFasncists · Post #18 » by **ChokeFasncists** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:39 pm

MaxRider wrote:jack has a better season in golden state and new orleans than lin in houston
he's bad in cleveland because they are a bad team

Real interesting how a good player can become a not so good player when not used well.

you guys are asking the coach to start this guy
that's why mchale bench him so he can play more time without haren or parsons
problem is he aint trying to score and keep passing the ball out

This doesn't make much sense! lol. The thing is, he is better starting not because of his scoring but his passing.

oh yes he is better going to different team
problem is he sucks so bad no one want him

I think plenty of teams like him, they just hate Morey's poison.

MaxRider · Post #19 » by **MaxRider** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:22 pm

lin is a score first pg not pass first sg
you guys need to get the fact straight

you guys keep blaming the coach not playing him right
the problem is he is not playing well at all
you can't give consistent minute to a player when he only have 1 good game out of 5
you guys are doing what motiejunas fans ask mchale to do earlier this season
when motiejunas is playing well he is getting his minute
lin is not playing well how can you ask the coach to play him more?
rockets is a playoff team you can't ask coach to give playing time for development when we are fighting for home court

trust me not that many team like him even if his contract is 6M per year instead of 8M
look around the league and tell me how many team he can start in
you only have one answer new york knicks

i'm not a lin hater
i'm a rockets fan
i have plenty of post where i bash haren, howard, motiejunas, and others too not just lin
you guys just don't pay attention to those post that's all

seanjoh · Post #20 » by **seanjoh** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 1:23 am

ChokeFasncists wrote:
MaxRider wrote:jack has a better season in golden state and new orleans than lin in houston
he's bad in cleveland because they are a bad team

Real interesting how a good player can become a not so good player when not used well.

you guys are asking the coach to start this guy
that's why mchale bench him so he can play more time without haren or parsons
problem is he aint trying to score and keep passing the ball out

This doesn't make much sense! lol. The thing is, he is better starting not because of his scoring but his passing.

oh yes he is better going to different team
problem is he sucks so bad no one want him

I think plenty of teams like him, they just hate Morey's poison.

If the poison pill is that difficult to trade, why not just take it and put him at the right position to success in order to lower your loss? I never understand their move from an investing position of view.