RealGM

Just want to show ya some interesting stats. (Nothing related to the "D-League" if you are curious.)



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Stats Up2date from SportVU－Player Tracking Data－Defense Impact－Protect the Rim:

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DxRAPM (Updated by J.E. on Mar, 24):

JE's announcement:
http://ww4.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1 ... 057dgr.jpg

Western PG:
http://ww4.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1 ... 0rj7gt.jpg
Eastern PG:
http://ww4.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1 ... 0qxwqk.jpg
ALL PG:
http://ww2.sinaimg.cn/large/81a664dcgw1 ... 1htqrc.jpg

ONLY stat i care is the W
everything else i DO NOT care

MaxRider wrote:ONLY stat i care is the W
everything else i DO NOT care

there you go...

start troy daniels

So what you're saying is Beverley is an offensive juggernaut! Thanks for enlightening me.

P.S. What ever happened to the "All Things Lin" thread?

His back is bothering him.

MaxRider wrote:ONLY stat i care is the W
everything else i DO NOT care

Only important stat at the end of the day.

MaxRider wrote:ONLY stat i care is the W
everything else i DO NOT care

You must care - you're using CAPS!

BaYBaller wrote:So what you're saying is Beverley is an offensive juggernaut! Thanks for enlightening me.

P.S. What ever happened to the "All Things Lin" thread?

Ur welcum!
Mainly becuz Bev's offensive rebounding was elite and he can play with anybody who needs the ball on their hands to be effective.

Mr. E wrote:

MaxRider wrote:ONLY stat i care is the W
everything else i DO NOT care

Only important stat at the end of the day.

Fair enough...Bev is better fit for this unique system just solely because of his style of play on the offensive side. I guess this is a big surprise for many basketball fans.

MaxRider wrote:start troy daniels

I don't mean to troll anybody. But we better give credit where credit is due, don't we?

You know what credit needs to be taken away from? DRtg. Individual contributions to team defense is incredibly difficult to measure. Dean Oliver's inability to produce a personal stat for defense is no big crime. People have been trying to do it for years. If you have a good idea on how to do it, you should publish and you'll get an NBA front office job plus a speaker spot at next year's Sloan.

The core of the DRtg calculations is the measurement of the individual defensive stop. If you look at the definition as per http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html:

DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)

where D_Pts_per_ScPoss = Opponent_PTS / (Opponent_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2) * Opponent_FTA*0.4)

and

Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions)

So, assuming uniform Team_Defensive_Rating, you want as high a Stop% as possible.

Stop% is defined as the following:

Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)

Stops = Stops_type1+Stops_type2

Stops_type1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA

Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2

So right away, you see that since steals generally top out at 3 a game, blks around 2 and defensive rebounds can be as high as 10 for some big men, the Stops_type1 calculation inadvertently lends more weight to people who do defensive rebounding than those who play on the perimeter. It prefers big men. Further more, Stops_type1 is likely to be kinder to gamble heavy defenders rather than chest to chest defenders that don't gamble. The one attribution to forcing tough shots is the DFG% which FMwt plays in a little, but FMwt really isn't weighted heavily enough to affect the outcome of an overzealous rebounder unless you happen to play next to a center who also isn't a shot blocker. See Kevin Love.

Historically, Joe Dumars has a higher DRTG rating than Rod Strickland or Bonzi Wells, whom Bonzi btw, out strips both Rajon Rondo and Shawn Marion, whom are just slightly better than Vlade Divac... Somehow Luis Scola is in the top 250 of all time... Stacey Augmon is ranked lower than Amare Stoudemire. ALLEN IVERSION IS AHEAD OF GARY PAYTON.

And somehow, Shawn Bradley and Chris Webber are better defenders than Karl Malone.

Seriously, fsck this stat.

Dean Oliver devised this stat well before its publication in Basketball On Paper, which was in 2004. What he, through his definitions, implies as a platonic defensive possession is ideally a forced turnover. If the defense can't do that, then it should limit the defense to one shot. If you have good rim protectors that are good defensive rebounders, both the protectors and the guards that gamble for steals will have high defensive ratings.

The issue with this stat is that defensive players at different positions w.r.t. to the ball handler, have different goals. Your off the ball helper that cuts off the passing lines and generating steals, the guy who is longer, will help out on defensive rebounds. Your shot blocker, will be properly represented due to the additional weights given to defensive rebounds. But the guy who really gets screwed here is the on ball defender. The great on ball defender takes away offensive options and forces the offense into inefficient shots, but the mistakes that the offense makes due to the additional defensive pressure are credited to the stealer, the blocker or the rebounder, not the actual guy who is doing most of the work.

Stop using those 'advanced stats' that are half baked.

spolgar
fsck the stats

Yeah there is no good overall stat to measure individual defense. Anybody who knows basketball and knows basketball stats knows this. Using DRtg to make an argument on a individual player's defensive prowess is (Please Use More Appropriate Word) because it is a team stat.

I sarcastically pointed out you could use that same logic to say Bev a much superior offensive player. Of course that is not the case. The reason why Bev in the starting line-up produced higher ORtg is simply because he takes less shots than Lin, which further allocated more shots to more efficient scorers like Harden and Parsons.

All that said Lin gets way too much flak for his defense (and too little given to the opponent). At worst he is average for his position.

BaYBaller wrote:Yeah there is no good overall stat to measure individual defense. Anybody who knows basketball and knows basketball stats knows this. Using DRtg to make an argument on a individual player's defensive prowess is (Please Use More Appropriate Word) because it is a team stat.

I sarcastically pointed out you could use that same logic to say Bev a much superior offensive player. Of course that is not the case. The reason why Bev in the starting line-up produced higher ORtg is simply because he takes less shots than Lin, which further allocated more shots to more efficient scorers like Harden and Parsons.

All that said Lin gets way too much flak for his defense (and too little given to the opponent). At worst he is average for his position.

I don't know if it is the case anymore that Bev takes less shots than Lin. Before he was hurt, Bev outscored LIn and took more shots. Of course, Bev had more minutes.

Lin is a good defender, I think he overhelps and sometimes makes the wrong decision on going over vs. under screens. Beverley is a tough, in your grill defender, can get overzealous, but makes an impact by being a disrupter. He enjoys playing defense too more than most players I think.

bws94 wrote:

BaYBaller wrote:Yeah there is no good overall stat to measure individual defense. Anybody who knows basketball and knows basketball stats knows this. Using DRtg to make an argument on a individual player's defensive prowess is (Please Use More Appropriate Word) because it is a team stat.

I sarcastically pointed out you could use that same logic to say Bev a much superior offensive player. Of course that is not the case. The reason why Bev in the starting line-up produced higher ORtg is simply because he takes less shots than Lin, which further allocated more shots to more efficient scorers like Harden and Parsons.

All that said Lin gets way too much flak for his defense (and too little given to the opponent). At worst he is average for his position.

I don't know if it is the case anymore that Bev takes less shots than Lin. Before he was hurt, Bev outscored LIn and took more shots. Of course, Bev had more minutes.

Lin is a good defender, I think he overhelps and sometimes makes the wrong decision on going over vs. under screens. Beverley is a tough, in your grill defender, can get overzealous, but makes an impact by being a disrupter. He enjoys playing defense too more than most players I think.

Well to be more precise, Bev's low usage rate creates more shots for his teammates through a combination of less shots, less TOs, and more rebounding (particularly offensive rebounds). I look at scaled stats (i.e. per 36 or 48 mins). Absolute stats can be deceiving due to minutes played on a game-by-game basis.

The sheer fact that Lin is fairly big for a PG and can sometimes guard SGs in certain matchups is already a luxury you don't have with some other PGs. We're going to be really thin at guard when Lin leaves after next season as he currently fills both the backup PG and backup SG roles.

my problem on lin is
1. defense on fighting over pick, it looks like he always run into the pick, only time he didn't is when he go under the pick, can't he learn a bit from watching tape? can't he run into the pick and fall and try to draw a foul?
2. it's the same stupid turnover over and over, so many of them i can read the turnover is coming, did he watch tape to see his mistake? for a smart guy graduated from harward i expect his bb iq to be higher
3. shoot the damn 3pts and stop the pump fake, you practice hard on them, show some confident shooting

MaxRider wrote:my problem on lin is
1. defense on fighting over pick, it looks like he always run into the pick, only time he didn't is when he go under the pick, can't he learn a bit from watching tape? can't he run into the pick and fall and try to draw a foul?

Not sure what you're expecting here. Defenders will go over or under an on ball screen depending on the situation...who the ball handler is, what position they are in, etc. There's also a lot depending on how hard the guy guarding the screener "shows" to stop the ball handler just enough for his defender to catch up. Yeah, sometimes Lin goes under when he shouldn't have but that's true for every defender in the entire NBA.

And are you seriously asking him to fall down when he gets screened to try and draw a foul? Do you know how ridiculous someone would look if they just fell down and no whistle was blown? Hey would end up on Shaqtin A Fool.

2. it's the same stupid turnover over and over, so many of them i can read the turnover is coming, did he watch tape to see his mistake? for a smart guy graduated from harward i expect his bb iq to be higher

It has nothing to do with bball IQ. It has to do with experience and instinct/reaction. I assume you're talking about Lin stopping his dribble in traffic or jumping in the air with no where to go. It's one thing to KNOW what do and a whole other thing to execute in the middle of a game when there's so much going on around you. Because Lin drives FAR more than most pgs, he will have more instances of getting stuck and picking up his dribble because sometimes he commits to the basket but then a defender steps in front and he has to stop otherwise he'll get called for a charge or get his shot blocked. Knowing what to do in these kinds of situations can only be learned with experience.

Also, I think the whole "jump in the air" thing is a bit overblown. Lots of guys do that in the NBA...you see it all the time, especially with the young guards. Yeah, it needs correcting, but again, it's not like Lin does it 5 times a game...in fact, I'd say he's gotten a bit better at it lately.

3. shoot the damn 3pts and stop the pump fake, you practice hard on them, show some confident shooting

I'm sorry, but these comments just illustrate how Lin can't win.

If he shoots the three (and his shot is off) then he's not being aggressive.

If he doesn't shoot the three and drives, then he should shoot the three more?

aggressive for what?
all he did when he drive in now is looking to pass
then he will run into the same turnover problem again
if you can't open your eye to see you never will
i'm not expecting him to play like an all-star
i just want him to play like a normal rotation guy
right now he is not
shoot the 3 when you are open
why drive into the lane with 2 guys waiting and then you have nowhere to go?
if i have a choice i rather trade him for jordan hamilton than aaron brooks

1) I think Lin has done a much better job of fighting over the pick say around the last 1/2 of the season or so. In fact the team as a whole has made great strides defensively, something they don't really get credit for. Not saying we're elite defensively but our rotations are much better than they were at the beginning of the season where they were almost laughable at times.

2) A lot of people refer to this as reading the second line of defense. Top PGs in this league know they can blow by anybody almost at will, their concern is the second line of defense, which is typically going to be the big. PGs who can properly read this second line of defense pretty much know what they are going to do before they do it if the big steps up. Lin hasn't fully gotten there yet, he's still looking at the first line of defense. He goes in hard, full-speed to get by his man, jumps or picks up his dribble into/from the rotating defense and now is stuck in no man's land. It's not so much that he makes jump passes at times per se, it's that he didn't have a "Plan B" to begin with.

A big root issue with Lin is that he is very left leg/right hand dominate. He apparently even has issues passing with his left hand effectively. As I've said many times, I'm highly skeptical Lin will ever become an elite passer. It would be much better for him to work on more core, fundamental issues with his game such as improving his weak leg/hand, his 3pt'er, his floater, his mid-range pull-up. I would have absolutely no complaints about Lin if he upped his 3pt% slightly next year, and turned all those TOs in the lane into floaters and mid-range pull ups. I think Lin actually passes too much right now given his assist efficiency (and I don't include things like offensive fouls here, coaches rarely complain about offensive fouls because it takes away from a player's aggressiveness).

3) I like the pump fake. I also like Parsons pump fake. It puts recovering defenses in a tough situation. Of course you have to mix it up. No idea why people bite on TJones pump fake though given his low 3pt%.