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WSJ - Rockets & the 3-point shot

Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:26 pm
by Mr. E
A nice article the Wall Street Journal about the Rockets and the 3-point shot in the NBA.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-houston-rockets-great-three-point-experiment-1479673700

The Golden State Warriors weaponized the 3-pointer last season like no team the NBA had ever seen. But as they unleashed three after three, a bolder strategy began circulating around the league: What if the Warriors weren’t shooting enough?

It wasn’t only the Warriors. There is a statistically reasonable argument that every NBA team should be shooting more 3-pointers. And there is no team better suited to make that argument than the Rockets. Houston’s team from 2015, not the Warriors, still owns the record for most three attempts in a single season. But maybe not for much longer—because this year’s Rockets are pushing the limits of the 3-pointer to the extreme.

Almost half of Houston’s field goals come from behind the strip of paint on every court. If they maintain that pace, which they should unless the numerical value of a 3-pointer changes, the Rockets would end the season with the most attempted threes of any team ever. No one else would even be close.


What I find funny is that even with all of the evidence before me, I have felt all season long like the Rockets have become less dependent on the 3-point shot. It seems to me that we've seen more mid-range jumpers than we have in the past few years. I guess that can happen with such high shot volume.

Re: WSJ - Rockets & the 3-point shot

Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:08 pm
by whitehops
Mr. E wrote:What I find funny is that even with all of the evidence before me, I have felt all season long like the Rockets have become less dependent on the 3-point shot. It seems to me that we've seen more mid-range jumpers than we have in the past few years. I guess that can happen with such high shot volume.


before the pistons play an opponent i like to look at their shooting breakdown just to get a sense of the matchup beforehand.

the rockets FGA can be broken down like this (in feet from the rim):

0-3 feet - 31.7% (7th in the nba)
3-10 feet - 14.8% (19th in the nba)
10-16 feet - 5.3% (30th in the nba)
16 - 23'9 - 6% (29th in the nba)
3 pointers - 42% (1st in the nba)

the rockets have shot the highest percentage of three pointers every year since 2014 (were second in 2013). no team has ever had more than 40% of their field goals come from behind the arc.

honestly the rockets shot distribution is nearly perfect if you go by analytics.

Re: WSJ - Rockets & the 3-point shot

Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 9:33 pm
by Mr. E
whitehops wrote:
Mr. E wrote:What I find funny is that even with all of the evidence before me, I have felt all season long like the Rockets have become less dependent on the 3-point shot. It seems to me that we've seen more mid-range jumpers than we have in the past few years. I guess that can happen with such high shot volume.


before the pistons play an opponent i like to look at their shooting breakdown just to get a sense of the matchup beforehand.

the rockets FGA can be broken down like this (in feet from the rim):

0-3 feet - 31.7% (7th in the nba)
3-10 feet - 14.8% (19th in the nba)
10-16 feet - 5.3% (30th in the nba)
16 - 23'9 - 6% (29th in the nba)
3 pointers - 42% (1st in the nba)

the rockets have shot the highest percentage of three pointers every year since 2014 (were second in 2013). no team has ever had more than 40% of their field goals come from behind the arc.

honestly the rockets shot distribution is nearly perfect if you go by analytics.


The questions now are if it will be sustainable, and if it can lead to post-season success.

Re: WSJ - Rockets & the 3-point shot

Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:35 am
by dalton749
Mr. E wrote:
whitehops wrote:
Mr. E wrote:What I find funny is that even with all of the evidence before me, I have felt all season long like the Rockets have become less dependent on the 3-point shot. It seems to me that we've seen more mid-range jumpers than we have in the past few years. I guess that can happen with such high shot volume.


before the pistons play an opponent i like to look at their shooting breakdown just to get a sense of the matchup beforehand.

the rockets FGA can be broken down like this (in feet from the rim):

0-3 feet - 31.7% (7th in the nba)
3-10 feet - 14.8% (19th in the nba)
10-16 feet - 5.3% (30th in the nba)
16 - 23'9 - 6% (29th in the nba)
3 pointers - 42% (1st in the nba)

the rockets have shot the highest percentage of three pointers every year since 2014 (were second in 2013). no team has ever had more than 40% of their field goals come from behind the arc.

honestly the rockets shot distribution is nearly perfect if you go by analytics.


The questions now are if it will be sustainable, and if it can lead to post-season success.


It's to inconsistent imo, unless you have some truly special shooters. Some nights they may look unbeatable, and some nights they will have some major head scratchers.

Re: RE: Re: WSJ - Rockets & the 3-point shot

Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:15 am
by K_chile22
dalton749 wrote:
Mr. E wrote:
whitehops wrote:
before the pistons play an opponent i like to look at their shooting breakdown just to get a sense of the matchup beforehand.

the rockets FGA can be broken down like this (in feet from the rim):

0-3 feet - 31.7% (7th in the nba)
3-10 feet - 14.8% (19th in the nba)
10-16 feet - 5.3% (30th in the nba)
16 - 23'9 - 6% (29th in the nba)
3 pointers - 42% (1st in the nba)

the rockets have shot the highest percentage of three pointers every year since 2014 (were second in 2013). no team has ever had more than 40% of their field goals come from behind the arc.

honestly the rockets shot distribution is nearly perfect if you go by analytics.


The questions now are if it will be sustainable, and if it can lead to post-season success.


It's to inconsistent imo, unless you have some truly special shooters. Some nights they may look unbeatable, and some nights they will have some major head scratchers.

They'll win games they should lose and lose games they should win. It evens out over a full season and if you get lucky can lead to a playoff run further than the teams talent level

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